I think it is arguable that Tinkle is the best coach that we have had since Ralph Miller. I like next year's recruiting class, although once again, we need a point. Otherwise, there's some good bigs coming in. Someone wrote a review on this thread that made Wilson seem mediocre; I don't think I agree with that. I think he will be a strong Pac 12 player.
It was probably me on Wilson - I put his upside at Jason Heide-level. That's not a bad Pac-12 player, but that's not a player carrying the team at either end. I do not see Wilson having the potential of developing into the next say Jakob Poeltl, which I'd be stoked about, but sure home I'm wrong.
On WT being the best coach since Ralph, I'd agree. But I don't think it's by a wide margin at all. Consider:
Eddy Payne:
Year 1: Inherited a train wreck, went 4-23 (2 conference wins, 2 more gifted later) with a serious dearth of talent on the inherited roster.
Year 2: but brought in an impressive freshman class, except for bigs. Went 7-20 overall, but only 3-15 in conference. Recruited probably the best PG we've had since GP/BB in Carson Cunningham, but lost him after 1 year. Probably the most athletic scorer in Corey Benjamin as well.
Year 3: Went 13-17, but again 3-15 in conference. Team had a decent amount of talent, but never put it together. Managed to beat Kent State on the road as well
Year 4: Went 13-14, just missing the winning season curse, 7-11 in conference. Accomplished that despite losing Benjamin to the NBA, with no player names most of us can pull from memory, except maybe Deondre Tanner. Pac-12 was loaded, and they notched wins at home vs. #7UCLA, #9 Arizona and #6 Stanford, as well as oregon. That team was 1-2 preseason wins and in the NIT, I believe. One of the more impressive seasons we've seen in the last several decades, at least at Gill.
Year 5. Went 13-17, 5-13 in again a very strong Pac 12 conference, including a win over #3 Arizona, and then it became Richey McKay time.
Jay John (no need to include the McKay disaster the two years before)
Year 1: Inherited a lot of talent (Brian Jackson, Philip Ricci, David Lucas) and brought in Lamar Hurd. Went 13-15 and 6-12 in a much weaker conference then it had been.
Year 2: Went 12-16 and 6-12 in conference, trending pretty flat.
Year 3: Went 17-15 and 8-10 in conference, enough for an NIT bid and breaking the wicked losing record streak. Trending up!
Year 4: Went 13-18 and 5-13 in conference, 1-1 in conf tourney. Lack of recruiting ability becoming very clear.
Year 5: 11-21 and 3-15 in conference. Roster done for talent. We're in big trouble.
Year 6: Fired mid-season, 0-18 in conference
Craig Robinson:
Year 1: Inherited a disaster, lucked into a roster that seemed perfect for running a 1-3-1 defense. Defended and ran offensive sets into a miraculous 18-18 record (thanks to 5 wins in the CBI tourney) and 8-10 in conference (really weak conference at this point). Trending way up.
Year 2: Went 14-18 (didn't get the CBI wins that time), 8-10 in conference in again a very weak conference (they played 1 team that was ranked the whole season). Trending flat, recruiting seemed promising.
Year 3: Went 11-20 and 5-13 in conference, despite having now 3 players that would play basketball after college in the US in Cunningham, Nelson, and Moreland. 1-3-1 and Princeton passed on for Dixon ball.
Year 4: Dixon ball continues, and despite a talented roster, goes 8-10 in maybe the weakest Pac in history (zero ranked teams played) and a pretty 21-10 overall thanks to another trip to the CBI.
Year 5: Talent starts to leave, cracks appear and 4-14 in a much stronger conference.
Year 6: 16-16 season, 8-10 in conference, trending back up into the respectable range. Conference slight stronger, but still pathetic. First round CBI loss, and we move on.
Wayne Tinkle
Year 1: Probably inherits a bit more talent that his predecessors except JJ, managed to keep GPII on board. Again uses a defensive focus to get a rare 17-14 winning season and 8-10 in another down year for the Pac outside of Utah and UA. Trending up.
Year 2: Brings in a recruiting class that surpasses Eddie's year 2 and blends them into a Dance invite, going 19-13 and 9-9 in the Pac (and finally a non-losing conference season!) Trending WAY up.
Year 3: Disastrous year not seen since JJ days, as losing GP II proves bigger than hoped and a raft of other injuries leaves them young and without enough talent to compete. Goes 5-17 and 1-17 in a conference gaining strength.
Year 4: 10-5, 2-1 in conference in one what will again be one of the weaker years in conference.
So, my point is, all 4 of these coaches had high water marks mixed with some respectable, promising seasons. By year 5 or 6 though, it became clear that the trend was headed south, and likely to say that way (although some argue that Eddie didn't get a fair shake and would have been fine - and I think there's some reason to believe that could have been the case).
Hence, it's not just Wayne's body of work that leaves me still somewhat skeptical, it's that it's year 5-6 that things tend to shake out between those that could produce a burst of a nice season vs. those that can sustain success and weather lean years without the bottom falling out. Add to that the very rare bonus WT got from having the inside track on 3 coaches kids that just happened to be the right age, and that only adds to my concern about the sustainability factor being yet a question mark.