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Post by rgeorge on Apr 22, 2024 15:38:33 GMT -8
I'm not going to check, but errors obviously have several causes... lack of talent, focus, poor communication, on and on. One of the key components is the % of balls put into play. A bad defense is a bad defense and good pitching really can't solve that. But, if you have a staff with "swing and miss" stuff there are less balls put in play. less defensive opportunities, and obviously less chance for errors. A staff with that type of stuff can erase many errors in terms of runners crossing the plate. The same can be said for teams with outstanding defense in erasing runs for a poor staff WHIP.
The key for any team to have to make as few "outs"/plays as possible. You have to make 24 or 27... but BB and errors put runners on, create pressure, and force the defense/pitchers to face extra "outs". How many times has this team given up multiple free bases while having to make extra outs per game? It is why 9-10 Ks on offense is counterproductive to the defense... while you face making more "outs" than needed, the opponents defense is only having to make 14-15/17-18 outs. Of course OSU pitchers strike out hitters too, but the point is you want to force the opponent to be under defensive pressure to make 22-23 "outs". While at the same time you only having to make 18-19 plays that lead to outs.
As my mentor once said in when we analyzed the types of balls put is play... they all require the defense to execute at least once where a K does not. And a ground ball generally requires (3) "plays" to be made... field, throw, catch. OSU needs to put the ball in play 4-5 times more per game.
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Post by rgeorge on Apr 22, 2024 15:55:05 GMT -8
My comment wasn't in regards to the " hit & miss" of recruiting. But, to the OP's comment on development of talent. Not everyone will be "chicken salad", but you best be able to recruit and develop to not have any (or very very few) "chicken poop". Staff had all Fall to evaluate and develop before setting a roster. I only meant it falls on the staff. I get that and was pointing out how different the game seems to be this year in regard to pitching dominance. I also wonder if we are pitching based on the hitters tendencies or based on the pitchers strengths (whch can change on any given night, CB not curving, can't locate a slider etc). In other words, are we calling pitches based off of the particular batter or based off what are guy can throw effectively? The one thing that is a waste of time is comparing year to year stats in terms of some trends and who is better, etc. Players change, circumstances change, and certainly depth changes. One of the keys for the overall rise in runs is depth. Once the post season begins you'll not see the same guys throwing for most teams. Just like in hoops, unless a game's outcome is lopsided the rotation will tighten and you see far less runs scored. Depth has been reduced slowly over the last decade as more and more HS pitchers opt for the $$ vs college. Can't blame some, but it has greatly reduced the number of quality arms and of the arms that are ready for D1 ball. I caught crap early on when I saw Fall ball and the number of arms that didn't even have two high quality pitches. If you looked objectively at this staff there was no true Friday guy and a bunch of question marks. Folks were hoping a guy with potential and ERA over 6 would be him, but that was hope not the fact of a solid returner. The rest of the staff was much the same. Except for Kmatz many of the others had potential and the hope others would return to form from injury. That was a lot of IFs. Someone posted the MC or PC said this was the best group of pitchers they had seen. Maybe the meant they had the chance to?? But, knowing PC pretty well he isn't want to lay out that type of superlative early on or if at all in that it increases the pressure on the kids. OSU lost some key recruits to $$ and IMHO there is about 3-4 guys on this staff that probably would not make our roster. Lots of kids have D1 "potential", not all mature and achieve past potential. Long winded ramble to say OSU like other teams have guys throwing that will not see the mound in the post season. Runs are up as overall staff depth is down around the country. There are some elite teams that are pretty stacked. Doesn't mean they will win it all, as baseball is a crazy game. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 22, 2024 16:05:34 GMT -8
Don't see alot of contact style pitching anywhere these days. I do agree that the defense needs to be better. Good OSU teams usually had less than 50 errors in the regular season. We already have 45 and if it doesn't clean up will finish the season averaging over an error per game. Maybe Wilky has a quick way to check but I don't think 60+ errors in a season correlates to good results and we are going to have that before conference play ends. Errors hurt for obvious reasons but they also affect pitching. If you induce contact and the defense flubs it multiple times you are going to feel alot more pressure to get strikes. That constricts your workable zone. It also blows your confidence to s%#t. Define "good." Errors at the end of the regular season: 2005 54
2006 55
2007 46
2008 52
2009 48
2010 58
2011 61
2012 53
2013 63
2014 47
2015 50
2016 59
2017 45
2018 42
2019 44
2021 352022 23
2023 362006 pretty good? 2013 pretty good? How about errors between games 39 & 40: 2005 482006 452007 312008 422009 372010 442011 402012 452013 462014 312015 362016 452017 342018 352019 322021 222022 172023 27
2024 45
Oregon State is in the exact same spot as 2006 in errors. One fewer error than 2013. And three fewer errors than 2005.
At this point, it is much more of a function of what happens after today than what has happened before today. 21 errors to finish the regular season derailed 2011. 2013 was able to hold it together even after committing 17 more errors to finish off the regular season. And errors were not the issue at the end of the 2013 season. 2018 started to look like champions at the end of the season with only seven errors after game 39. 2006 had 10 errors. 2007 posted 15 errors over the final 16 games as the season looked like it might implode. Id say the median of errors since 2004 or so would be 'good'. I'd prefer to see the average at 1 error per game or less. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 22, 2024 16:08:54 GMT -8
Wilky can we get some comparisons amongst the pitching staffs as well going back to 2005? More specifically can we look at the statistics of the bullpen? It is a lot easier to look at games. Abel pitched his way to a 5-1 lead in the fifth at Goss in a game against Stanford in game 47 in 2018. The bullpen gave up eight over the final eight innings in a 9-6 Cardinal win. Maxwell and Turpen pitched their way to a 7-6 lead in the sixth at Goss against Portland in game 38 in 2006. The bullpen gave up five in two innings to hand Portland an 11-7 lead. Oregon State's offense came up with five runs in the seventh and eighth to go back up 12-11. Joe Paterson pitched an excellent 1.2 innings before giving up a walk with one out in the ninth to get pulled in favor of Kunz. Kunz gave up a single, error, and single to score two, one unearned to hand Portland the lead. Mitchy Slick hit a one-out homer to right to tie it up at 13. Kunz pitched into the 12th before giving up a leadoff walk and single, coupled with a throwing error to make it 14-13. Koller then came in and got shelled, giving up an additional six runs to make it 20-13 the final. 14 runs given up by the bullpen after the fifth. The 2007 bullpen was so awful that Pat Casey stopped starting Joe Paterson in the Charlottesville Regional and put him in the pen, relying on Stutes, Turpen, and Reyes with Paterson first out of the pen to win a National Championship. Good coaching can fix a bad bullpen, especially when Oregon State has starters for days. But unless this is really DEFCON 1, and I do not think that it is yet, there is absolutely no reason to start tearing down the pitching staff down to studs like in 2007. A big issue with this staff, as was a big issue last year, is the lack of southpaws. I also will say that Oregon State is probably stronger once there are no longer any midweek games, so that guys like Jaren Hunter can start in a Regional and pitch in middle relief in a Super Regional. I also think that Oregon State under Casey and now under Mitchy Slick has the habit of falling apart, when there is an inconsistent zone. The zones get to be a lot more consistent in the postseason, which will help the bullpen and the hitters. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 22, 2024 16:18:22 GMT -8
Define "good." Errors at the end of the regular season: 2005 54
2006 55
2007 46
2008 52
2009 48
2010 58
2011 61
2012 53
2013 63
2014 47
2015 50
2016 59
2017 45
2018 42
2019 44
2021 352022 23
2023 362006 pretty good? 2013 pretty good? How about errors between games 39 & 40: 2005 482006 452007 312008 422009 372010 442011 402012 452013 462014 312015 362016 452017 342018 352019 322021 222022 172023 27
2024 45
Oregon State is in the exact same spot as 2006 in errors. One fewer error than 2013. And three fewer errors than 2005.
At this point, it is much more of a function of what happens after today than what has happened before today. 21 errors to finish the regular season derailed 2011. 2013 was able to hold it together even after committing 17 more errors to finish off the regular season. And errors were not the issue at the end of the 2013 season. 2018 started to look like champions at the end of the season with only seven errors after game 39. 2006 had 10 errors. 2007 posted 15 errors over the final 16 games as the season looked like it might implode. Id say the median of errors since 2004 or so would be 'good'. I'd prefer to see the average at 1 error per game or less. I would prefer to see the average of one error per game or fewer, as well. I would say that your definition is a good one, but it puts 2005, 2006, and 2013 as "not good" defensive teams, which they were not (at least by last 20 season standards). But teams with "not good" defenses were able to play in Omaha and win championships. I will point out again that I think that errors over the final 15 regular season games will be much more important than errors over the first 39 regular season games. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 22, 2024 16:24:18 GMT -8
Id say the median of errors since 2004 or so would be 'good'. I'd prefer to see the average at 1 error per game or less. I would prefer to see the average of one error per game or fewer, as well. I would say that your definition is a good one, but it puts 2005, 2006, and 2013 as "not good" defensive teams, which they were not (at least by last 20 season standards). But teams with "not good" defenses were able to play in Omaha and win championships. I will point out again that I think that errors over the final 15 regular season games will be much more important than errors over the first 39 regular season games. Part of that is just baseball sometimes. If you have a lot of good contact pitchers you will probably have more errors but also plenty of quality outs by defenders instead of strike outs. Also if your porch ng doesn't give up free bases or lead off hitting you can have more error but they don't necessarily hurt as much. There's also an element of luck to all of it ofc. An fielding error on 2nd that lets a runner on is alot better than an error to first that ends bouncing around in foul territory while runners go wild. You can also have teams play with plenty of errors all regular season then get hot and play great in the post season. At the end of the day every error is unnecessary bad result, when every game critical they can't pile up or your going to have bad results. |
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Post by bvogrande on Apr 22, 2024 20:01:56 GMT -8
My comment wasn't in regards to the " hit & miss" of recruiting. But, to the OP's comment on development of talent. Not everyone will be "chicken salad", but you best be able to recruit and develop to not have any (or very very few) "chicken poop". Staff had all Fall to evaluate and develop before setting a roster. I only meant it falls on the staff. I get that and was pointing out how different the game seems to be this year in regard to pitching dominance. I also wonder if we are pitching based on the hitters tendencies or based on the pitchers strengths (whch can change on any given night, CB not curving, can't locate a slider etc). In other words, are we calling pitches based off of the particular batter or based off what are guy can throw effectively? Yes, all that and I think it was rgeorge that mentioned the "sequencing." Seems to me that's pretty dam big too. |
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Post by rgeorge on Apr 22, 2024 20:35:26 GMT -8
I get that and was pointing out how different the game seems to be this year in regard to pitching dominance. I also wonder if we are pitching based on the hitters tendencies or based on the pitchers strengths (whch can change on any given night, CB not curving, can't locate a slider etc). In other words, are we calling pitches based off of the particular batter or based off what are guy can throw effectively? Yes, all that and I think it was rgeorge that mentioned the "sequencing." Seems to me that's pretty dam big too. Some one else mentioned earlier what I was a bit concerned with from the Day 1 of the hiring. MiLB guy with no college experience will take a while to become a college HC/staff. Same goes with Dorman. It's not a bad hire(s), but there is a huge learning curve. Getting handed talent others chose and being directed by organizational standards is far different than college. Finding and evaluating talent that fits your coaching style and development design isn't quite the same. Freaking much more difficult and responsibility. Pitch sequencing is one aspect, as is the HR vs K rate. There is no real small ball, hitting behind runners... move 'em up, score 'em mentality. It's as if Earl Weaver recruited and is the hitting instructor. Obviously not that severe, but there is more of a pro ball vibe at times than a college one. And, it includes the dugout at times. Almost too biz like?! Emotions wain too easily?! I don't know... just a different vibe. As someone also mentioned... it just doesn't appear that these players are having enough fun playing a game. If they'd relax and quit worrying about ___, ___, ____, ____ I think a lot of sh%t would disappear and they'd be a serious contender. Ok... another ramble... alcohol not involved! |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Apr 23, 2024 6:37:55 GMT -8
Dorman had ample college experience at Grand Canyon before coming to OSU.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 23, 2024 6:59:11 GMT -8
It'd be interesting to get some Intel from someone close to the program. Otherwise, it's just a lot of speculation.
At this point, I'm going to give Dorman the benefit of the doubt. Our guys gotta compete. Until I'm convinced otherwise, I'm going to assume Canham/Dorman are giving the pitchers what they need to succeed......if that is not the case, then reevaluation needs to happen.
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Post by richard44 on Apr 23, 2024 10:02:28 GMT -8
It'd be interesting to get some Intel from someone close to the program. Otherwise, it's just a lot of speculation. At this point, I'm going to give Dorman the benefit of the doubt. Our guys gotta compete. Until I'm convinced otherwise, I'm going to assume Canham/Dorman are giving the pitchers what they need to succeed......if that is not the case, then reevaluation needs to happen. Ya, I agree with this. I think sometimes my expectations are so high for OSU baseball, that I get unrealistic with my response when we have brief episodes of struggle. When we sit back and look at the entire picture, this staff has done nothing but taken our team to the postseason every year since they have been here, developed multiple first round picks, and brought in top 25 recruiting classes on a regular basis. They have developed guys like Hjerpe, Boyd, Meckler, Baz, McDowell, Melton, Forrester, Kmatz, etc. Not all those guys were big time recruits. Heck, Melton was a community college kid. I get pissed when we don’t play well, or when we lose games we shouldn’t. I curse at the TV and sometimes turn off the game because I get so worked up. But when I get time to sleep on it, I come back to the reality that our program has been in really good hands since Casey left. We haven’t been back to Omaha, which is the next stepping stone for this staff, but getting to Omaha is incredibly hard (has another pac 12 team made it to Omaha since our 2018 team)? Winning it all is even harder (just ask Dave Van Horn of Arkansas). I hate when we play like crap, and if that continues for the remainder of the year, I think it is possibly time for some evaluation of certain aspects of our program. But for now, I want us to get fully healthy and see how this team responds to adversity. Go Beavs! |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 23, 2024 10:24:56 GMT -8
It'd be interesting to get some Intel from someone close to the program. Otherwise, it's just a lot of speculation. At this point, I'm going to give Dorman the benefit of the doubt. Our guys gotta compete. Until I'm convinced otherwise, I'm going to assume Canham/Dorman are giving the pitchers what they need to succeed......if that is not the case, then reevaluation needs to happen. Ya, I agree with this. I think sometimes my expectations are so high for OSU baseball, that I get unrealistic with my response when we have brief episodes of struggle. When we sit back and look at the entire picture, this staff has done nothing but taken our team to the postseason every year since they have been here, developed multiple first round picks, and brought in top 25 recruiting classes on a regular basis. They have developed guys like Hjerpe, Boyd, Meckler, Baz, McDowell, Melton, Forrester, Kmatz, etc. Not all those guys were big time recruits. Heck, Melton was a community college kid. I get pissed when we don’t play well, or when we lose games we shouldn’t. I curse at the TV and sometimes turn off the game because I get so worked up. But when I get time to sleep on it, I come back to the reality that our program has been in really good hands since Casey left. We haven’t been back to Omaha, which is the next stepping stone for this staff, but getting to Omaha is incredibly hard (has another pac 12 team made it to Omaha since our 2018 team)? Winning it all is even harder (just ask Dave Van Horn of Arkansas). I hate when we play like crap, and if that continues for the remainder of the year, I think it is possibly time for some evaluation of certain aspects of our program. But for now, I want us to get fully healthy and see how this team responds to adversity. Go Beavs! Good stuff here! Furd actually went to Omaha 3 years in a row! '21-'23 |
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Post by richard44 on Apr 23, 2024 11:22:36 GMT -8
Ya, I agree with this. I think sometimes my expectations are so high for OSU baseball, that I get unrealistic with my response when we have brief episodes of struggle. When we sit back and look at the entire picture, this staff has done nothing but taken our team to the postseason every year since they have been here, developed multiple first round picks, and brought in top 25 recruiting classes on a regular basis. They have developed guys like Hjerpe, Boyd, Meckler, Baz, McDowell, Melton, Forrester, Kmatz, etc. Not all those guys were big time recruits. Heck, Melton was a community college kid. I get pissed when we don’t play well, or when we lose games we shouldn’t. I curse at the TV and sometimes turn off the game because I get so worked up. But when I get time to sleep on it, I come back to the reality that our program has been in really good hands since Casey left. We haven’t been back to Omaha, which is the next stepping stone for this staff, but getting to Omaha is incredibly hard (has another pac 12 team made it to Omaha since our 2018 team)? Winning it all is even harder (just ask Dave Van Horn of Arkansas). I hate when we play like crap, and if that continues for the remainder of the year, I think it is possibly time for some evaluation of certain aspects of our program. But for now, I want us to get fully healthy and see how this team responds to adversity. Go Beavs! Good stuff here! Furd actually went to Omaha 3 years in a row! '21-'23 Oh jeez, ya, how the heck did I forget that? Total brain lapse there. Good call. Those were some good squads. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 23, 2024 13:43:39 GMT -8
Good stuff here! Furd actually went to Omaha 3 years in a row! '21-'23 Oh jeez, ya, how the heck did I forget that? Total brain lapse there. Good call. Those were some good squads. Arizona also went in 2021 before LSU hired their head coach away. |
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Post by badwack on Apr 23, 2024 14:31:10 GMT -8
Not to be downer but we have rented our last two Friday Night Guys. I also to tend to agree their is more of Pro Ball feel to many of these games. We no longer seem to dare anyone or take chances. Stolen Bases. Rarely trying bunts with runners on 3rd with less than 2 outs. Made me kind of sick watching Cal walking up the plate and nailing the first pitch. I guess we hit by zone. If the ball is not in the HR Zone 1 we take the pitch. Not sure why we take the pitch down the middle. Apparently the middle is the weak zone for many. Now I will shut up!
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