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Post by rgeorge on Apr 18, 2024 10:44:57 GMT -8
Blame is the common thread during losses and it will fall on various aspects of a team/staff. But, there are several misleading points being made above:
- Development... there is no sure fire way to gage natural maturity and development gained from experience and the influence of a coach. Both play a part but, it is never a clear cut just how much is one or the other;
- Dorman is a nice guy, and good coach no doubt. But, I'd say he is highly respected by Mitch. He is a "pup" in terms of college coaching. He also inherited some good arms. He was a low level MiLB pitching coach, and as far as I know he was not the lead guy in Everett or in the AZL with roving instructors taking the lead in development. The point is he had (3) seasons in college ball and at at a school that was growing into a D1 program and getting better recruits. So, he's the pitching coach at OSU which means something, but I'd venture to say he's not "highly resected" nation wide as he lacks the decade+ of sustain excellence that many have;
- the overall pitching is disappointing (especially when I dissed about mentioning early on "hype" does not equal actual success... let's wait and see). Inconsistencies abound... pitching, actual pitch sequences, Pitch development for D1 level kids, defensive play, baserunning, plate discipline. Every team has injuries, but 36 games into a season much of what we see happening should be long gone/minimized. ESPECIALLY vs the quality of the competition.
Folks complained about getting screwed last post season being sent to LSU. Again is there a conspiracy? Really or was it all in the actual numbers... how a team finished it's own conference tournament and the overall season? Well, if something does not change the Top 8 seed is going to disappear and it will not be the committee screwing OSU. Luckily this team was a Top 5 team the entire season and it is harder to unseat a season long ranking than to move up.
But the key #s do not bode well. Part is OSU's problem in how they play and who they scheduled. Part is not OSU's doing... getting into the Texas games (thank you) , but then the poor year in the Pac12 really screws the Q1/Q2 games and RPI. But looking at the last (4) seasons:
RPI SOS NC SOS Q1+Q2 games Q3+Q4 games
'24 (Current) 14 77 74 9 27
(Predicted) 17 62 64 17 37
That's 37 games (or more depending on future opponent results) vs far inferior non postseason (or low #4 regional seeds). In comparison to other seasons
'23 (Final) 34 61 174 36 25
'22 (Final) 2 18 9 50 16
So the inconsistent play (and numbers) is versus pretty poor competition. What "everyone else" does is not the discussion. OSU is the discussion and not allowing a committee to have justification to seed this team lower than it deserves. However, at this time OSU isn't helping their own cause. They could have 10 or fewer overall losses, but will have half as many (or less) quality wins. Injuries or not, the guys in the lineup need to start treating the competition like a top 5-8 team would at this point in the season.
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Post by hottubbeaver on Apr 18, 2024 11:29:25 GMT -8
Going into last year and this year. he's had some unfortunate luck with injuries which likely turned his plans upside down. Last year I felt we steadily improved and he cobbled together a very competitive arsenal with what was available.
One thing I do wonder about, not a criticism just an observation, is the seemingly cookie cutter build profile for pitchers we bring in under Doorman. Out of 18 or so pitchers I think only two are under 6' 2".
It does make me wonder if we are overlooking some scrappy competitor types like a; Gunderson, Nickerson, Moore, Fry, Wetzler, etc...... who wouldn't meet our apparent current pitcher size profile.
EDIT: to add to this, it seems to me taller, bigger pitchers have a higher potential, yet are not as consistent out of high school. On the flip side, guys who reached their growth limit and matured physically at a younger age have had more time to become familiar with their current tools, so to speak, and can be more more consistent as a result entering college, but may not have much room to improve. A handful of pitchers like this could be a good complement for some steadiness out of the pen.
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Post by beavaristotle on Apr 18, 2024 11:49:12 GMT -8
Blame is the common thread during losses and it will fall on various aspects of a team/staff. But, there are several misleading points being made above: - Development... there is no sure fire way to gage natural maturity and development gained from experience and the influence of a coach. Both play a part but, it is never a clear cut just how much is one or the other; - Dorman is a nice guy, and good coach no doubt. But, I'd say he is highly respected by Mitch. He is a "pup" in terms of college coaching. He also inherited some good arms. He was a low level MiLB pitching coach, and as far as I know he was not the lead guy in Everett or in the AZL with roving instructors taking the lead in development. The point is he had (3) seasons in college ball and at at a school that was growing into a D1 program and getting better recruits. So, he's the pitching coach at OSU which means something, but I'd venture to say he's not "highly resected" nation wide as he lacks the decade+ of sustain excellence that many have; - the overall pitching is disappointing (especially when I dissed about mentioning early on "hype" does not equal actual success... let's wait and see). Inconsistencies abound... pitching, actual pitch sequences, Pitch development for D1 level kids, defensive play, baserunning, plate discipline. Every team has injuries, but 36 games into a season much of what we see happening should be long gone/minimized. ESPECIALLY vs the quality of the competition. Folks complained about getting screwed last post season being sent to LSU. Again is there a conspiracy? Really or was it all in the actual numbers... how a team finished it's own conference tournament and the overall season? Well, if something does not change the Top 8 seed is going to disappear and it will not be the committee screwing OSU. Luckily this team was a Top 5 team the entire season and it is harder to unseat a season long ranking than to move up. But the key #s do not bode well. Part is OSU's problem in how they play and who they scheduled. Part is not OSU's doing... getting into the Texas games (thank you) , but then the poor year in the Pac12 really screws the Q1/Q2 games and RPI. But looking at the last (4) seasons: RPI SOS NC SOS Q1+Q2 games Q3+Q4 games'24 (Current) 14 77 74 9 27 (Predicted) 17 62 64 17 37 That's 37 games (or more depending on future opponent results) vs far inferior non postseason (or low #4 regional seeds). In comparison to other seasons '23 (Final) 34 61 174 36 25 '22 (Final) 2 18 9 50 16 So the inconsistent play (and numbers) is versus pretty poor competition. What "everyone else" does is not the discussion. OSU is the discussion and not allowing a committee to have justification to seed this team lower than it deserves. However, at this time OSU isn't helping their own cause. They could have 10 or fewer overall losses, but will have half as many (or less) quality wins. Injuries or not, the guys in the lineup need to start treating the competition like a top 5-8 team would at this point in the season. your point about pitch sequencing is a good one, the scouts at the games are asking the same questions. To me a lot of the time the sequencing is from a position of being scared or having too much respect for the hitters rather then attacking. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 18, 2024 12:16:33 GMT -8
I have little faith in our pitching staff including the coach. Few teams score ten runs and lose. We've done it twice in the last 4 days. And nevada is a terrible team. A top ten team should never lose to them. Do you believe that losing to Nevada in Reno by one is worse than Kentucky losing to Wazzu by two in Round Rock? Just curious. |
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Post by RenoBeaver on Apr 18, 2024 12:34:47 GMT -8
Dear God fire them all. Bring in Stanfords staff
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Post by rgeorge on Apr 18, 2024 12:57:14 GMT -8
It's amazing how those accusing or implying "overreacting" are the ones actually the most prolific at it.
Since when does evaluation or to reevaluate mean "fire"?
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 18, 2024 13:25:57 GMT -8
Blame is the common thread during losses and it will fall on various aspects of a team/staff. But, there are several misleading points being made above: - Development... there is no sure fire way to gage natural maturity and development gained from experience and the influence of a coach. Both play a part but, it is never a clear cut just how much is one or the other; - Dorman is a nice guy, and good coach no doubt. But, I'd say he is highly respected by Mitch. He is a "pup" in terms of college coaching. He also inherited some good arms. He was a low level MiLB pitching coach, and as far as I know he was not the lead guy in Everett or in the AZL with roving instructors taking the lead in development. The point is he had (3) seasons in college ball and at at a school that was growing into a D1 program and getting better recruits. So, he's the pitching coach at OSU which means something, but I'd venture to say he's not "highly resected" nation wide as he lacks the decade+ of sustain excellence that many have; - the overall pitching is disappointing (especially when I dissed about mentioning early on "hype" does not equal actual success... let's wait and see). Inconsistencies abound... pitching, actual pitch sequences, Pitch development for D1 level kids, defensive play, baserunning, plate discipline. Every team has injuries, but 36 games into a season much of what we see happening should be long gone/minimized. ESPECIALLY vs the quality of the competition. Folks complained about getting screwed last post season being sent to LSU. Again is there a conspiracy? Really or was it all in the actual numbers... how a team finished it's own conference tournament and the overall season? Well, if something does not change the Top 8 seed is going to disappear and it will not be the committee screwing OSU. Luckily this team was a Top 5 team the entire season and it is harder to unseat a season long ranking than to move up. But the key #s do not bode well. Part is OSU's problem in how they play and who they scheduled. Part is not OSU's doing... getting into the Texas games (thank you) , but then the poor year in the Pac12 really screws the Q1/Q2 games and RPI. But looking at the last (4) seasons: RPI SOS NC SOS Q1+Q2 games Q3+Q4 games'24 (Current) 14 77 74 9 27 (Predicted) 17 62 64 17 37 That's 37 games (or more depending on future opponent results) vs far inferior non postseason (or low #4 regional seeds). In comparison to other seasons '23 (Final) 34 61 174 36 25 '22 (Final) 2 18 9 50 16 So the inconsistent play (and numbers) is versus pretty poor competition. What "everyone else" does is not the discussion. OSU is the discussion and not allowing a committee to have justification to seed this team lower than it deserves. However, at this time OSU isn't helping their own cause. They could have 10 or fewer overall losses, but will have half as many (or less) quality wins. Injuries or not, the guys in the lineup need to start treating the competition like a top 5-8 team would at this point in the season. You have to watch out like the Warren Nolan predictions, because he re-rolls each time someone clicks on it. Here is what it rolled for me: RPI SOS NC SOS Q1+Q2 games Q3+Q4 games
'24 (Current) 14 77 74 9 27 (Predicted) 7 66 50 17 37 My roll created a worse SOS but a better NC SOS than yours, but it appears largely the same otherwise, other than it is predicting that Oregon State goes 15-3 the rest of the way, and I am guessing that your roll had the Beavs going worse than 15-3. You then try to compare apples to oranges. 2024 correctly organizes the Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 games. But the earlier seasons do not. If I reorganize them, so that you can more closely compare apples to apples, I get: '23 (Final) 34 61 174 24 37'22 (Final) 2 18 9 42 24 And that ignores the fact that Oregon State played 12 post-regular season games in 2022 and six post-regular season games in 2023. If I remove those, I get '23 (Final) 34 61 174 18 37 '22 (Final) 2 18 9 31 23 36 games in in 2023, Oregon State had played 10 Q1+Q2 games and 26 Q3+Q4 games but were 25-11, rather than 30-6. 2024 Oregon State is far ahead of 2023 Oregon State. Comparisons between the two teams or assertions that overall 2023 Oregon State is better or has done better so far are silly. 36 games in in 2022, Oregon State was coming off a midweek split against Gonzaga (which was a Q1 team back in 2023), having played 20 Q1+Q2 games and 16 Q3+Q4 games. Oregon State was 28-8 36 games in in 2022. 15-5 in Q1+Q2 games, and 13-3 in Q3+Q4 games. That is all to say that Oregon State has fewer losses against Q1+Q2 teams and fewer losses against Q3+Q4 teams. You can argue that Oregon State played a more difficult slate in 2022, but, even though the Beavs had played fewer Q3+Q4 teams, they had both fewer wins and more losses against them. Fewer "good" wins in 2024 but fewer "bad" losses. 2024 Oregon State has done better against Q3+Q4 teams than both of the last two years. Oregon State has fewer Q1+Q2 losses than either 2022 or 2023. There have not been as many Q1+Q2 wins in 2024 than in 2022, but there also have been 11 fewer chances. Arguments can be made between 2022 and 2024 about who has done better against which teams, but comparing 2023 to either of the other two teams is silly. And 2023 Oregon State was a bullpen implosion away from beating the National Champs at their place. |
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Post by chicagobeav on Apr 18, 2024 15:23:01 GMT -8
Well, last night was a team effort in blowing it in the eighth- couple of walks by Hutch - then the error by Hainline- and also an error by Smith - 2 errors - who knows what happens there if the defense backs up the pitcher- then of course we do not get anything in the top of the ninth- Krueger and Reeder strike out when we got a guy at first with no outs- then Holmes gives up a tater- team loss- ya put players in position to succeed- ya still have to execute
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Post by Judge Smails on Apr 18, 2024 16:00:11 GMT -8
Well, last night was a team effort in blowing it in the eighth- couple of walks by Hutch - then the error by Hainline- and also an error by Smith - 2 errors - who knows what happens there if the defense backs up the pitcher- then of course we do not get anything in the top of the ninth- Krueger and Reeder strike out when we got a guy at first with no outs- then Holmes gives up a tater- team loss- ya put players in position to succeed- ya still have to execute Krueger should be benched, whoever he is. |
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Post by irimi on Apr 18, 2024 16:37:04 GMT -8
Well, last night was a team effort in blowing it in the eighth- couple of walks by Hutch - then the error by Hainline- and also an error by Smith - 2 errors - who knows what happens there if the defense backs up the pitcher- then of course we do not get anything in the top of the ninth- Krueger and Reeder strike out when we got a guy at first with no outs- then Holmes gives up a tater- team loss- ya put players in position to succeed- ya still have to execute Krueger should be benched, whoever he is. He's a bit of a nightmare, I hear. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 18, 2024 17:24:03 GMT -8
Krueger should be benched, whoever he is. He's a bit of a nightmare, I hear. More than a bit of a pervert and peeing tom even. |
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gnawitall
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Post by gnawitall on Apr 18, 2024 17:26:14 GMT -8
He's a bit of a nightmare, I hear. More than a bit of a pervert and peeing tom even. uh, never mind |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 18, 2024 19:09:03 GMT -8
He's a bit of a nightmare, I hear. More than a bit of a pervert and peeing tom even. Maybe he's a perv with urinary tract infection, or an enlarged prostate? |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Apr 18, 2024 19:15:04 GMT -8
More than a bit of a pervert and peeing tom even. Maybe he's a perv with urinary tract infection, or an enlarged prostate? I think you missed on the Freddy Kruegerness of it all lol |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Apr 18, 2024 19:40:43 GMT -8
Maybe he's a perv with urinary tract infection, or an enlarged prostate? I think you missed on the Freddy Kruegerness of it all lol I did not actually.....one, two, Freddys comin for you! It was the peeing Tom remark |
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