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Post by beaverology on Dec 28, 2023 7:49:02 GMT -8
7pm
Gill
Pac12 Network
Beavs +6.5
The final Pac12 season, as we've known it for so long, is upon us. Ya, it sucks. UCLA looks to right the ship against a pesky Beaver team who usually plays better at home. It's amazing that ESPN gives the Beavers a 40% chance of winning this game on their match-up predictor given the UCLA advantages in tradition, recruiting and money spent, but OSU will take it. I think that given the Vegas point spread of 6.5, it should be closer to 75/25% win/loss, but let's find out. I also think we'll see a lot more comments in this thread tonight during and after the game if the game goes as most think it will.
PROJECTED STARTERS
OREGON STATE
G #0 Jordan Pope (16.9 PPG/2.7 RPG/3.4 APG)
G #4 Dexter Akanno (11.7 PPG/3.1 RPG/1.3 APG)
F #12 Michael Rataj (7.1 PPG/6.5 RPG/1.5 APG)
F #34 Tyler Bilodeau (11.5 PPG/5.4 RPG/1.1 APG)
C #24 KC Ibekwe (7.2 PPG/5.3 RPG/0.4 APG/1.1 BPG)
UCLA
G #2 Dylan Andrews (11.5 PPG/1.7 RPG/3.7 APG)
G #12 Sebastian Mack (15.2 PPG/4.5 RPG/1.6 APG/2 SPG)
G #10 Lazar Stefanovic (10 PPG/6 RPG/1.6 APG/1.2 SPG)
F #3 Adem Bona (12.1 PPG/6.5 RPG/0.8 APG/1.4 BPG)
C #15 Aday Mara (4.6 PPG/3.1 RPG/1 APG)
UCLA Bruins (5-6) at Oregon State Beavers (8-3)
BOTTOM LINE: Oregon State plays the UCLA Bruins after Jordan Pope scored 25 points in Oregon State's 76-57 win over the Idaho State Bengals. The Beavers have gone 8-0 in home games. Oregon State is 3-0 in games decided by 3 points or fewer.
The Bruins are 0-1 on the road. UCLA scores 67.7 points while outscoring opponents by 5.7 points per game.
Oregon State's average of 5.5 made 3-pointers per game is 1.9 fewer made shots on average than the 7.4 per game UCLA gives up. UCLA averages 4.4 made 3-pointers per game this season, 3.0 fewer made shots on average than the 7.4 per game Oregon State gives up.
TOP PERFORMERS: Pope is scoring 16.9 points per game and averaging 2.7 rebounds for the Beavers. Tyler Bilodeau is averaging 11.6 points and 5.2 rebounds over the last 10 games for Oregon State.
Lazar Stefanovic averages 1.3 made 3-pointers per game for the Bruins, scoring 10.0 points while shooting 31.1% from beyond the arc. Sebastian Mack is averaging 15.8 points and two steals over the past 10 games for UCLA.
LAST 10 GAMES: Beavers: 7-3, averaging 70.5 points, 36.1 rebounds, 12.1 assists, 6.4 steals and 4.6 blocks per game while shooting 43.6% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 71.4 points per game.
Bruins: 4-6, averaging 67.0 points, 37.3 rebounds, 11.2 assists, 5.8 steals and 3.1 blocks per game while shooting 41.2% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 63.8 points.
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Post by beaverinohio on Dec 28, 2023 8:52:45 GMT -8
A much anticipated game that should be a much better measure of what this team will do this year than noncon games were. I’ve seen UCLA 3 times this year and they aren’t as good as the last few years, though they do have talent. Some things I’m interested in seeing and that I think will shed more light on how good or bad this team will be are:
— Can Rataj continue his good play and possibly even player better, especially on offense.
— Can our 2 centers continue to be productive to the point they are a team strength against some opponents.
— Does Lake still look the part against Pac 12 competition and, just as important will WT continue to give him regular minutes.
— Can Bilodeau get back on track and then gain consistency
Really have no idea how this game goes. Hopefully Beavers can take advantage of a home game against a struggling Bruins team. I always like being rewarded for staying up late to watch.
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Post by beaverology on Dec 28, 2023 9:26:02 GMT -8
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Post by Judge Smails on Dec 28, 2023 9:58:07 GMT -8
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Post by beaverology on Dec 28, 2023 10:05:57 GMT -8
A 2-point loss to #4 Marquette. Oh no.
4 pt loss to Gonzaga.
Losses to Ohio State and Maryland. Ok
Losing to Cal State Northridge is hard to understand, but it happens.
So, one bad loss and that's it?
Like I said, UCLA will be looking to get right tonight. Expect it.
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Post by beaverinohio on Dec 28, 2023 10:15:29 GMT -8
What is your point? One goes into game with some positivity and he has unreal expectations. One goes in saying Beavers aren’t good and will lose and he is a negative naysayer. UCLA doesn’t have any NBA first round picks on its roster. It has 2 that a publication back in Nov projected as first rounders. Mara has a hell of a lot of work to do to become a first rounder. Having seen him play several times, I highly doubt he’ll get there — at least not this year. Bona is a good player with most projections I’ve seen having him in latter half of first. But he currently isn’t a dominant player. Yes, UCLA has more talent than Beavers, but they aren’t playing up to their talent And what the hell does tradition have to do with anything. What happened 50-60 years ago has no bearing on the game tonight. I guess it’s not surprising that some think it would given the fact they believe what happened 30 years ago has any bearing on whether Beavers next coaching hire (whenever it is) will be successful. |
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Post by beaverology on Dec 28, 2023 10:20:15 GMT -8
My point is, on paper, this is a huge mismatch. Everywhere.
40-50 years ago, Ralph could sometimes hang with UCLA, but that ship sailed back in 1989. It's almost as if having the best coach, NBA level players, top talent everywhere, etc doesn't matter to this board.
After 6 failed coaches in a row, you'd think people would stop the surface level analysis with the blaming the coach.
IT'S THE OSU MBB PROGRAM.
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Post by beaverinohio on Dec 28, 2023 10:37:36 GMT -8
Who said talent doesn’t matter in this thread? Who has blamed a coach in this thread. Sounds like you believe Beavers will get killed, so you’re throwing out preemptive strikes now for when it happens.
As far the ship sailing in 1989 for beating UCLA, that is so weird. I seem to remember Beavers beating them in Pac 12 tournament just a few years ago — and in regular season a couple years before that.
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Post by ag87 on Dec 28, 2023 12:36:16 GMT -8
My point is, on paper, this is a huge mismatch. Everywhere. 40-50 years ago, Ralph could sometimes hang with UCLA, but that ship sailed back in 1989. It's almost as if having the best coach, NBA level players, top talent everywhere, etc doesn't matter to this board. After 6 failed coaches in a row, you'd think people would stop the surface level analysis with the blaming the coach. IT'S THE OSU MBB PROGRAM. I remember Charlie Sitton saying OSU was 6 wins and 2 losses against UCLA when he was on the roster. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 28, 2023 12:49:12 GMT -8
Oregon State's last win against UCLA:
The time before:
The time before:
The time before:
The time before:
Of note, Oregon State beat UCLA by more than 10 points in 2015 and 2019.
Before Tinkle, Oregon State's last three wins over UCLA by more than 10 points:
January 29, 1981 OREGON STATE 81 - UCLA 67
February 26, 1982 OREGON STATE 72 - UCLA 58
January 8, 1989 OREGON STATE 82 - UCLA 69
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Post by rgeorge on Dec 28, 2023 13:00:24 GMT -8
Who said talent doesn’t matter in this thread? Who has blamed a coach in this thread. Sounds like you believe Beavers will get killed, so you’re throwing out preemptive strikes now for when it happens. As far the ship sailing in 1989 for beating UCLA, that is so weird. I seem to remember Beavers beating them in Pac 12 tournament just a few years ago — and in regular season a couple years before that. He tosses out general BS... made up NIL #s and everything else. He likes to play both sides of the coin just in case. Yet belittles anyone who states an opinion. As I said before this series will tell us more about the downside of this season than the upside. Both the LA school are very talented but still finding their way. Both have played much better competition, but are down record wise. Both are capable of beating anyone in conference play. Winning these two at home shows that OSU can possibly get to 7+ Pac12 wins. Lose both at home and it'll be a huge blow, and an uphill battle to win 7 of the next 18, with 4 of the next 5 on the road vs teams currently 35-9. |
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Post by rgeorge on Dec 28, 2023 13:22:50 GMT -8
Oregon State's last win against UCLA: The time before: The time before: The time before: The time before: Of note, Oregon State beat UCLA by more than 10 points in 2015 and 2019. Before Tinkle, Oregon State's last three wins over UCLA by more than 10 points: January 29, 1981 OREGON STATE 81 - UCLA 67February 26, 1982 OREGON STATE 72 - UCLA 58
January 8, 1989 OREGON STATE 82 - UCLA 69Wilky... I know you love to cull data that proves some kind of point. However, the fact is if you are going to use "history" then be complete (or at least somewhat objective) and not just the data points that benefit your viewpoint. Since 1999... you probably don't want to go further back... OSU vs UCLA: 12 wins 30 Losses -Home 8-15 -Away 3-15 -Neutral 1-0 Last 10... 3-7 Streak... Lost 3 since E8 run (@ 81-65, 94-55, 62-47... average loss 23.3 pts) WT vs UCLA... 5-12 WT vs Cronin... 1-5 (@ 0-2, Home 0-3, 1-0 Neutral) My point... all the "history" lessons mean zip, zero, nada. Different teams, different circumstances. Games are played in the here and now. Plast "highlights" matter NONE. |
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Post by beaverology on Dec 28, 2023 13:34:26 GMT -8
Posting highlights of the magical Cinderella season triggers some people, esp the ones who hate WT.
The 2020-2021 season was one of the greatest in OSU MBB history. Given all the circumstances (being picked last in Pac12 preseason) and the Cinderella effect, it may be the best in the modern era.
I never get tired of watching OSU MBB greatness.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 28, 2023 13:36:46 GMT -8
Who said talent doesn’t matter in this thread? Who has blamed a coach in this thread. Sounds like you believe Beavers will get killed, so you’re throwing out preemptive strikes now for when it happens. As far the ship sailing in 1989 for beating UCLA, that is so weird. I seem to remember Beavers beating them in Pac 12 tournament just a few years ago — and in regular season a couple years before that. I am sorry for your loss, Misty. He tosses out general BS... made up NIL #s and everything else. He likes to play both sides of the coin just in case. Yet belittles anyone who states an opinion. As I said before this series will tell us more about the downside of this season than the upside. Both the LA school are very talented but still finding their way. Both have played much better competition, but are down record wise. Both are capable of beating anyone in conference play. Winning these two at home shows that OSU can possibly get to 7+ Pac12 wins. Lose both at home and it'll be a huge blow, and an uphill battle to win 7 of the next 18, with 4 of the next 5 on the road vs teams currently 35-9.I think I understand the bolded part, and I will agree with what you say. If Oregon State cannot win either game, you are probably right. It sets up for a just awful season, unless the Beavers can find another gear later in the season. (Or the bottom falls out for one or more other Pac-12 teams.) In much the same way, a split sets up for a 7-win type season, unless, once again, Oregon State finds another gear or the bottom falls out for one or more other Pac-12 teams. A sweep, and we will probably not be able to figure out what Oregon State's ceiling is (if there is one) until after the following weekend. Having said that, I would caution that Oregon State started 1-3 (one on the road and three at home) before winning five of seven and turning the season around. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 28, 2023 13:56:16 GMT -8
Oregon State's last win against UCLA: The time before: The time before: The time before: The time before: Of note, Oregon State beat UCLA by more than 10 points in 2015 and 2019. Before Tinkle, Oregon State's last three wins over UCLA by more than 10 points: January 29, 1981 OREGON STATE 81 - UCLA 67February 26, 1982 OREGON STATE 72 - UCLA 58
January 8, 1989 OREGON STATE 82 - UCLA 69Wilky... I know you love to cull data that proves some kind of point. However, the fact is if you are going to use "history" then be complete (or at least somewhat objective) and not just the data points that benefit your viewpoint. Since 1999... you probably don't want to go further back... OSU vs UCLA: 12 wins 30 Losses -Home 8-15 -Away 3-15 -Neutral 1-0 Last 10... 3-7 Streak... Lost 3 since E8 run (@ 81-65, 94-55, 62-47... average loss 23.3 pts) WT vs UCLA... 5-12 WT vs Cronin... 1-5 (@ 0-2, Home 0-3, 1-0 Neutral) My point... all the "history" lessons mean zip, zero, nada. Different teams, different circumstances. Games are played in the here and now. Plast "highlights" matter NONE. I cannot make your 12-30 work out, so I am confused as to how you derive it. Between 1999-2014, Oregon State was 7-25 (.219) against UCLA. If I take it back to 1992, Oregon State was 8-38 (.174). I disagree with your final paragraph. Reminds me of "Catch Me If You Can": Unlike a lot of the other teams in the Pac-12, UCLA is a different beast in basketball and has been a different beast for the past 60 years. A win against the Bruins is always an impressive feat. This UCLA team has the talent that those teams in the past 60 years; they just have not put it all together yet. And I am hoping that UCLA does not put it all together until after tonight. Go Beavs! |
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