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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 17, 2023 22:18:23 GMT -8
I think you mean something other than informant bias. Otherwise, I do not follow. Also, generally, I do not follow. Oregon State's current SOS is 77. Sagarin rates Oregon State's current SOS at 66 Your ad hominem attacks of both me and the use of a median apparently in a data pool of 10 seasons notwithstanding, the median season is a truer view of Tinkle than the mean season. As you say, actual seasons count. That is exactly my point! Thank you for making it so eloquently for me! That is why the median is a better view of the median than the mean, where you throw them all together and ignore the ebbs and flows. Three bad season do not spoil the rest. Oregon State is never going to be able to overcome one or two bad breaks in a season. And there were just wretched breaks in the two awful seasons. Lol... the wretched breaks? One key injury automatically means 5-27? Do tell us what were the wretched break(s) that lead to the worst season in OSU history? Like what transfers? Those that every program faces. Hmmmm... but weird probably not so much after an E8. Guess some coaches are just better at handling "wretched breaks"?! 58-110... no bias, no excuses, the actual HC record in Pac12 play. So far. Almost every single Power Six program has a deeper talent pool to draw from. One key injury derails a season far faster and more completely for Oregon State than for pretty much every other Power Six team. That is true in football. That is even more true in basketball. |
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Post by rgeorge on Dec 17, 2023 22:26:44 GMT -8
Lol... the wretched breaks? One key injury automatically means 5-27? Do tell us what were the wretched break(s) that lead to the worst season in OSU history? Like what transfers? Those that every program faces. Hmmmm... but weird probably not so much after an E8. Guess some coaches are just better at handling "wretched breaks"?! 58-110... no bias, no excuses, the actual HC record in Pac12 play. So far. Almost every single Power Six program has a deeper talent pool to draw from. One key injury derails a season far faster and more completely for Oregon State than for pretty much every other Power Six team. That is true in football. That is even more true in basketball. Goal posts moved... Wretched breaks? Remember? PS- every P6 school has exactly the same player pool. Some just draw better. Some draw less, but actually develop players better. But, all have the same players to draw from, here and abroad. |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Dec 17, 2023 22:36:28 GMT -8
The 18 losing seasons in 23 years that Anderson/Payne/McKay/John/Moulton/Robinson collectively put up kinda sucks against the 3 losing seasons in 9 years Tinkle put up. Not saying Tinkle is the greatest coach ever, but he's done far better that the previous 2 decades of coaches here. His overall record is heavily skewed by the 3 losing seasons. I suspect anyone who actually studied the science of statistics probably wouldn't use a mean based on 9 data points, but they probably wouldn't use averages skewed by extremes as an example of a reliable metric either. 58-110 isn't an average. It's the factual, unbiased actual conference record. That record is being used to calculate an average that several posters here use to justify getting rid of him. It ignores the winning seasons, the 2 NCAA tournaments the Beavers went to, the ZERO NCAA tournaments the Beavers went to the previous 23 years, and the 50/50 years. It is heavily skewed by a minority of actual seasons. |
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Post by rgeorge on Dec 17, 2023 22:45:59 GMT -8
58-110 isn't an average. It's the factual, unbiased actual conference record. That record is being used to calculate an average that several posters here use to justify getting rid of him. It ignores the winning seasons, the 2 NCAA tournaments the Beavers went to, the ZERO NCAA tournaments the Beavers went to the previous 23 years, and the 50/50 years. It is heavily skewed by a minority of actual seasons. You quoted my post. Hence, I replied as I've not used any averages. The totality of a HC record and the trend is more important. The two "highs" have been followed not only by precipitous lows, but the inability to capitalize on said highs. Getting "rid" of WT will not happen until OSU's situation is more clearly defined. But, unless there is a rapid and steep climb there is no way to justify his current salary. The buyout can readily be made up with Pac12 revenues and the difference in a new coach at a "no conference" or MWC standard. That in all honesty will have more of an opportunity to succeed without the large salary. |
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Post by takethatbeav on Dec 19, 2023 13:21:54 GMT -8
Lol... the wretched breaks? One key injury automatically means 5-27? Do tell us what were the wretched break(s) that lead to the worst season in OSU history? Like what transfers? Those that every program faces. Hmmmm... but weird probably not so much after an E8. Guess some coaches are just better at handling "wretched breaks"?! 58-110... no bias, no excuses, the actual HC record in Pac12 play. So far. Almost every single Power Six program has a deeper talent pool to draw from. One key injury derails a season far faster and more completely for Oregon State than for pretty much every other Power Six team. That is true in football. That is even more true in basketball. High school Player distribution does have some negative effects for sure. Something crazy like 85% of D1 players either go to an in state school or a school less than a 4 hour car ride from their high school. (The portal has changed this some but there’s not compiled data on it much yet.) Obviously this has never held true for PNW schools, but when you say Oregon State has a more limited pool you’re partially correct by the geography constraints. Onto what rgeorge says about WT, I think last year playing all the freshman was the absolute smartest thing possible. This year they are playing to win more than to develop. Still got to get the right Jimmys and Joes into the program to plug current needs (shooting) and that didn’t happen and that’s the coaches fault moreso than the players I have a feeling that WT won’t be around if the men don’t go 8-12 in the conference this season. You’re absolutely right about the 2 phase removal (either pac 12 money, and hiring someone that is much cheaper) that kinda pays for itself pretty quickly. |
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Post by beaverinohio on Dec 19, 2023 14:38:56 GMT -8
Almost every single Power Six program has a deeper talent pool to draw from. One key injury derails a season far faster and more completely for Oregon State than for pretty much every other Power Six team. That is true in football. That is even more true in basketball. High school Player distribution does have some negative effects for sure. Something crazy like 85% of D1 players either go to an in state school or a school less than a 4 hour car ride from their high school. (The portal has changed this some but there’s not compiled data on it much yet.) Obviously this has never held true for PNW schools, but when you say Oregon State has a more limited pool you’re partially correct by the geography constraints. Onto what rgeorge says about WT, I think last year playing all the freshman was the absolute smartest thing possible. This year they are playing to win more than to develop. Still got to get the right Jimmys and Joes into the program to plug current needs (shooting) and that didn’t happen and that’s the coaches fault moreso than the players I have a feeling that WT won’t be around if the men don’t go 8-12 in the conference this season. You’re absolutely right about the 2 phase removal (either pac 12 money, and hiring someone that is much cheaper) that kinda pays for itself pretty quickly. I believe I’ve posted this before in response to you using that 85% stat,, but I think that number is greatly skewed by all the sports other than football and mbball. I don’t think the percentage is anywhere near that high for scholarship players in those two sports — especially mbball. To use geography as a free pass for an injury leading to an historically bad season is excuse making at its finest. |
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Post by takethatbeav on Dec 19, 2023 14:59:21 GMT -8
High school Player distribution does have some negative effects for sure. Something crazy like 85% of D1 players either go to an in state school or a school less than a 4 hour car ride from their high school. (The portal has changed this some but there’s not compiled data on it much yet.) Obviously this has never held true for PNW schools, but when you say Oregon State has a more limited pool you’re partially correct by the geography constraints. Onto what rgeorge says about WT, I think last year playing all the freshman was the absolute smartest thing possible. This year they are playing to win more than to develop. Still got to get the right Jimmys and Joes into the program to plug current needs (shooting) and that didn’t happen and that’s the coaches fault moreso than the players I have a feeling that WT won’t be around if the men don’t go 8-12 in the conference this season. You’re absolutely right about the 2 phase removal (either pac 12 money, and hiring someone that is much cheaper) that kinda pays for itself pretty quickly. I believe I’ve posted this before in response to you using that 85% stat,, but I think that number is greatly skewed by all the sports other than football and mbball. I don’t think the percentage is anywhere near that high for scholarship players in those two sports — especially mbball. To use geography as a free pass for an injury leading to an historically bad season is excuse making at its finest. Where the portal has changed it. Guys leave home and realize it’s not so bad and they are willing to go further away. But I’ve also noticed a lot of guys transfer home. I know the stat sounds absolutely absurd but it was put out by Rivals less than 10 years ago. I also think it may have only pertained to football, but idk how it could be that much different. The number is also skewed because 75% of D1 universities are east of the Mississippi River. So a true P5 talent in that area has dozens of football options local and hundreds of d1 basketball local. To not give Oregon state and WSU a partial pass for their geography and national recognition would be really unfair. These brands for basketball are weaker than Creighton or Wichita state, Gonzaga, st Mary’s, and I’m sure several others WT understood he needs to recruit freshmen, develop them and hopefully have a roster of 21-23 yr old men who have played together 3-4 years, that’s more of a mid major model but that is probably the only way going forward. |
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Post by takethatbeav on Dec 19, 2023 15:02:10 GMT -8
Bringing in 2-3 star guys with upside is gonna be more helpful than landing a major recruit, because then you not only have to win, but you have to defend against all other comers, looking to snipe that “help us now” talent
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Post by rgeorge on Dec 19, 2023 15:10:13 GMT -8
High school Player distribution does have some negative effects for sure. Something crazy like 85% of D1 players either go to an in state school or a school less than a 4 hour car ride from their high school. (The portal has changed this some but there’s not compiled data on it much yet.) Obviously this has never held true for PNW schools, but when you say Oregon State has a more limited pool you’re partially correct by the geography constraints. Onto what rgeorge says about WT, I think last year playing all the freshman was the absolute smartest thing possible. This year they are playing to win more than to develop. Still got to get the right Jimmys and Joes into the program to plug current needs (shooting) and that didn’t happen and that’s the coaches fault moreso than the players I have a feeling that WT won’t be around if the men don’t go 8-12 in the conference this season. You’re absolutely right about the 2 phase removal (either pac 12 money, and hiring someone that is much cheaper) that kinda pays for itself pretty quickly. I believe I’ve posted this before in response to you using that 85% stat,, but I think that number is greatly skewed by all the sports other than football and mbball. I don’t think the percentage is anywhere near that high for scholarship players in those two sports — especially mbball. To use geography as a free pass for an injury leading to an historically bad season is excuse making at its finest. Yeah... in not looking up 350+ mbb programs but I'm guessing most don't have 30% from 4hrs or closer. Especially schollie players. MBB has 0% active, schollie players from 4hrs in... unless Lake received one? WBB... 15% I believe. But, yes, the excuse "train" should be long gone after 9 seasons. The truly stark # considering the less than stellar NC slates? The last time I checked under 25% win percentage away from Gill!! |
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Post by beaverology on Dec 19, 2023 15:20:17 GMT -8
Two other factors against OSU, as if there needs to be more:
1. The ducks will cherry pick the top in state talent to Eugene, taking away, local talent from OSU. It's not that a 4 or 5 star kid is gonna pick OSU to begin with, but bribing (pre-NIL) and current NIL rules allows them to give cash and 'The Nike Promise' to players like Bittle, Shelstad and Pritchard which tips the scale.
2. If it's not Oregon, it's NIL collectives within the Pac12 and MWC that put OSU at disadvantage. SDSU pays their MBB players a monthly stipend.
The MBB model in Corvallis is broken, it's been broken since 1990, when GP left. The OSU program tanked under Anderson and has never recovered. Been like that for over 30 years and counting.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 19, 2023 15:26:41 GMT -8
Two other factors against OSU, as if there needs to be more: 1. The ducks will cherry pick the top in state talent to Eugene, taking away, local talent from OSU. It's not that a 4 or 5 star kid is gonna pick OSU to begin with, but bribing (pre-NIL) and current NIL rules allows them to give cash and 'The Nike Promise' to players like Bittle, Shelstad and Pritchard which tips the scale. 2. If it's not Oregon, it's NIL collectives within the Pac12 and MWC that put OSU at disadvantage. SDSU pays their MBB players a monthly stipend. The MBB model in Corvallis is broken, it's been broken since Gary Payton left and the OSU program tanked. Been like that for over 30 years and counting. Add to that that there is not a lot of talent in the State of Oregon to begin with, because Oregon has a disproportionately small number of families per capita. |
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Post by takethatbeav on Dec 19, 2023 16:09:00 GMT -8
I believe I’ve posted this before in response to you using that 85% stat,, but I think that number is greatly skewed by all the sports other than football and mbball. I don’t think the percentage is anywhere near that high for scholarship players in those two sports — especially mbball. To use geography as a free pass for an injury leading to an historically bad season is excuse making at its finest. Yeah... in not looking up 350+ mbb programs but I'm guessing most don't have 30% from 4hrs or closer. Especially schollie players. MBB has 0% active, schollie players from 4hrs in... unless Lake received one? WBB... 15% I believe. But, yes, the excuse "train" should be long gone after 9 seasons. The truly stark # considering the less than stellar NC slates? The last time I checked under 25% win percentage away from Gill!! Ok so I’ve got to change my statement. I just was told by my friend who showed me the article all those years ago just clarified it was for the riivals 250 in football. So the top 250 football players from 2001-2013 (the years the data was compiled) 85% were in state or with in 300 miles of their hometown. I’m sure that was made for Texas, Florida and California to skew the stat and give programs who aren’t having success an excuse. So I was definitely right on the information just wrong in where i applied it |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 19, 2023 16:17:26 GMT -8
I believe I’ve posted this before in response to you using that 85% stat,, but I think that number is greatly skewed by all the sports other than football and mbball. I don’t think the percentage is anywhere near that high for scholarship players in those two sports — especially mbball. To use geography as a free pass for an injury leading to an historically bad season is excuse making at its finest. Yeah... in not looking up 350+ mbb programs but I'm guessing most don't have 30% from 4hrs or closer. Especially schollie players. MBB has 0% active, schollie players from 4hrs in... unless Lake received one? WBB... 15% I believe. But, yes, the excuse "train" should be long gone after 9 seasons. The truly stark # considering the less than stellar NC slates? The last time I checked under 25% win percentage away from Gill!! speakthetruth was yammering on about why Oregon State could not do what St. Peter's did in 2022. I pointed out that 60% of St. Peter's roster was from within 200 miles of Jersey City. And everyone else (40%) was from overseas In comparison, at the time, 8% of Oregon State's roster was from within 200 miles of Corvallis. And only 20% were from overseas. |
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Post by speakthetruth on Dec 19, 2023 16:29:20 GMT -8
Damn I am tired of the excuses. There was a time 23 or so years ago that people thought we would lose yet another football season - going for 29. We hired a guy by the name of Riley to get our footing then hired a guy named Erickson to put us over the top. And we have generally kept a winning program for most of the years since. There is another riley out there for basketball and maybe another Erickson. Tinkle is not the answer. Quit trying to polish a turd.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Dec 19, 2023 16:40:54 GMT -8
Yeah... in not looking up 350+ mbb programs but I'm guessing most don't have 30% from 4hrs or closer. Especially schollie players. MBB has 0% active, schollie players from 4hrs in... unless Lake received one? WBB... 15% I believe. But, yes, the excuse "train" should be long gone after 9 seasons. The truly stark # considering the less than stellar NC slates? The last time I checked under 25% win percentage away from Gill!! speakthetruth was yammering on about why Oregon State could not do what St. Peter's did in 2022. I pointed out that 60% of St. Peter's roster was from within 200 miles of Jersey City. And everyone else (40%) was from overseas In comparison, at the time, 8% of Oregon State's roster was from within 200 miles of Corvallis. And only 20% were from overseas. Using "the Big Radius Tool" there are over 15 million people living within 25 miles of Jersey City. Expanding it to 200 miles shows there are over 49 million people living within that radius. Corvallis, at just over 300k and 6 million in those radii, pales by comparison. Not sure how that fits into the conversation, but I'd think big population schools would have an easier time at obtaining more local kids to help fill the roster without a huge sacrifice in talent level. |
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