Oregon State may be days from a decision

Now we’re getting somewhere!!

I still hope Stanford and Cal somehow stay with us. Whatever TV deal we get in whatever the conference we're in is called, there will be more money on the table if it includes the Bay Area. Plus I'd like to see some semblance of the PAC 12 remain, with us playing at least 3 schools with whom we have a long standing tradition.

Thanks for the pessimistic viewpoint. Now I have to drink even more.

IMO, that's very unlikely (going to P4 status), depending upon the composition of the new Pac-12. The other conferences have to have a majority vote (and it may be may be more than that - at least with rules changes it used to be "Get 60 percent of all the votes from 65 school representatives and 15 athletes plus a simple majority from three of the Power 5 conferences; or get 51 percent of the votes and a simple majority from four of the five Power 5 conferences."

Now here's where the new Pac-whatever could play things to their advantage. The B1G and SEC have already hinted that they think the revenue distribution for CFB is unfair (of course they do) because it's equally allocated amongst conferences rather than by # of schools in a conference. They also want to more heavily weight the Power 5 vote against the G-5 vote. But if a school joins a P5 and they weren't a P5 school before, they automatically become one with full voting rights. In other words, it makes it harder to get an appropriate # of votes to make changes AND if the B1G/SEC decide to pull these shenanigans with number of schools == revenue distribution, the Pac-? can address that by making a bigger conference.

That's why it may be beneficial to combine whatever is left in the PAC w/ the top/majority of the AAC and the top/majority of the MW. This gives the PAC way more voting power. The Big 12 and ACC are going to be loathe to remove the PAC status because that will give the B1G/SEC more power and the G5 will oppose because it squeezes them further out of the picture. The only way the Big12 and ACC do this is if they REALLY want the money they get from an increased share of the CFB payout and they want to risk the B1G and SEC taking absolute control at some point.

So then let's say the B1G and SEC get pissed and break off as everyone expects. That's (apparently, from what I have read) where anti-trust might kick in to level the playing field in a big way. They would be taking a big chance as well. I still think it would vastly help our case if Stanford and Cal were in the conference, but I don't think it's impossible to retain status if they aren't. The key thing is to get things in place or at least announced before any votes can take place.

I fear the B1G more than the Big12. The Big12 may actually want us around but severely wounded because we'd be another reliable vote against B1G/SEC power grabs. I've been reading a few theories today about how Stanford is really trying to get into the B1G by dangling these offers to the ACC. If Fox doesn't want ESPN to grab West Coast slots or wants the chance to steal ND later, they can steal Stanford now (w/ or w/o CAL). But then again, I've also heard the ACC is still pretty close to making a final vote to get Cal/Stanford in..

I think the worst case is Stanford goes, Cal stays and we don't get the entire financial pie, but Cal isn't enough to move the needle anywhere.

Grab Tulane (who is ranked right now) and UTSA (who has 60+ votes for being ranked). If somehow all three (they and OSU) could stay ranked at years' end, who can argue that a conference with 3 of the top 25 teams isn't a P5?

Whatever comes out of this, the best possible thing we could see this year is for OSU to win as many football games as possible. It helps make our case now and softens our landing wherever we go.

Just to clarify, "it" as in "it will go to Power 4" was in reference to the Power 5, not the new Pac-12. 

I hope it doesn't because I was hoping that the Pac 4 could bring SMU into the fold along with UTSA, Tulsa, Tulane, and Memphis.