Post by rgeorge on Feb 3, 2024 13:33:51 GMT -8
New thread for current game.... transferred previous post
USC is no doubt talented, but after a 14-6 Pac12 season and adding a highly rated class they have experienced circumstances that would derail most programs. Through Feb. 1 their (11) games away from home (7 away/4 neutral) are tied for second in all of P6, as well as the (7) true roadies. Combine that with the amount of injuries and games starters/key players have missed there has been no real development of chemistry and executing the system... players have missed 44 games of action due to injury or illness. To date players missing games are Gardner (20), James (8), Collier (5), Ellis (4), Morgan (2), Iwuchukwu (2), Johnson (2), Rodman (1).
With that Soph guard Oziyah Sellers' has picked up the pace. He scored a career-high 18 points scored at Colorado on Jan. 13 and has scored in double figures in four of the last five games for an 11.4 average. Sellers has made 18 of his last 32 three-point shots (56.3 percent) and leads USC with an 83.3 shooting percentage from the FT line. The lack of a consistent rotation also has cause the USC defensive to fall off from their typical high level the past 4 seasons. However, in the last four games, USC held its opponents to a combined 39.1 percent shooting (102-for-261). Continued defense and a deepening bench is needed as USC has averaged 62.5 points last six games after averaging 78.9 points per game in the first 15 games.
Even with recent successes OSU has not faired well vs USC. USC has won 11 of the last 16 games against the Beavers. USC has won 7 of its last 8 games against Oregon State at the Galen Center. It'll be more of game tonight as I do not see OSU shooting 60% and getting (31) FTAs. The scary part of that 16 point OSU win was that they needed to shoot that well as a depleted USC team shot 51%/38.5% on the road.
Since then at home:
Offense: 46%/39% vs Cal (W); 48%/56% vs Stanford (W); 38%/29% vs WSU (L); 35%/46% vs UCLA (L); 44%/35% vs UO (L)
Defense: 46%/39% vs Cal; 53%/59% vs Stanford; 47%/32% vs WSU; 35%/44% vs UCLA; 37%/37% vs UO
Rebound +/-: +0 vs Cal; +3 vs Stanford; -6 vs WSU; -14 vs UCLA; +0 UO
Giving up Offensive rebounds is a huge issue their last two games vs athletic size...(15) to UCLA; (17) to UO. I'm not sure OSU has the capability to get that many, but between the shooting % and rebound #s OSU doesn't have to play a elite level game to get a win at Galen. There is not excuse to lose this game, even on the road vs a depleted/defeated team that was selected 2nd in the Pac12 preseason poll.
But, many numbers are similar in the conference stats:
Scoring: OSU (69.6/10th).... USC (69.4/11th)
TOs: OSU (12.5/10th)... USC (13.7/12th)
Assts: OSU (10.1/12th)... USC (16.8/T2nd)
Rebs: OSU (30.8/12th)... USC (33.4/7th)
3pt%: OSU (37.7/4th)... USC (37/ 5th)
FG%: OSU (45.4/8th)... USC (44.2/9th)
Off Eff: OSU (1.018/8th)... USC (1.004/ 10th)
Defense:
FG%: OSU (46.5/9th)... USC (44.6/6th)
3pt%: OSU (33.2/1st)... USC (39.4/11th)
RebM: OSU (-2.5/11th)... USC (-2.2/10th)
TO: OSU (10.6/8th)... USC (12.9/3rd)
Def Eff: OSU (1.108/12th)... USC (1.083/10th)
Net Eff: OSU (-0.089/12th)... USC (-0.079/11th)
In the case of these two teams pretty clear why they are fighting for 11th and 12th?! However, USC is missing their 2nd leading scorer, and almost 17 points a game.
Wasting time it is weird to see some of the individual scoring numbers. In the top 20 conference scorers (with ties):
Arizona (1)
ASU (2)
Cal (2)
Furd (3)
USC (1)
UCLA (0)
UO (2)
OSU (2)
Col (3)
Utah (1)
WSU (2)
UW (2)
Mimics the parity of the standings I guess. Wonder when the last time UCLA did not have a Top 20 conference scorer? (Bona is currently 22nd, Stefanovic 31st). And would expect high scoring UA with more than one?
USC is no doubt talented, but after a 14-6 Pac12 season and adding a highly rated class they have experienced circumstances that would derail most programs. Through Feb. 1 their (11) games away from home (7 away/4 neutral) are tied for second in all of P6, as well as the (7) true roadies. Combine that with the amount of injuries and games starters/key players have missed there has been no real development of chemistry and executing the system... players have missed 44 games of action due to injury or illness. To date players missing games are Gardner (20), James (8), Collier (5), Ellis (4), Morgan (2), Iwuchukwu (2), Johnson (2), Rodman (1).
With that Soph guard Oziyah Sellers' has picked up the pace. He scored a career-high 18 points scored at Colorado on Jan. 13 and has scored in double figures in four of the last five games for an 11.4 average. Sellers has made 18 of his last 32 three-point shots (56.3 percent) and leads USC with an 83.3 shooting percentage from the FT line. The lack of a consistent rotation also has cause the USC defensive to fall off from their typical high level the past 4 seasons. However, in the last four games, USC held its opponents to a combined 39.1 percent shooting (102-for-261). Continued defense and a deepening bench is needed as USC has averaged 62.5 points last six games after averaging 78.9 points per game in the first 15 games.
Even with recent successes OSU has not faired well vs USC. USC has won 11 of the last 16 games against the Beavers. USC has won 7 of its last 8 games against Oregon State at the Galen Center. It'll be more of game tonight as I do not see OSU shooting 60% and getting (31) FTAs. The scary part of that 16 point OSU win was that they needed to shoot that well as a depleted USC team shot 51%/38.5% on the road.
Since then at home:
Offense: 46%/39% vs Cal (W); 48%/56% vs Stanford (W); 38%/29% vs WSU (L); 35%/46% vs UCLA (L); 44%/35% vs UO (L)
Defense: 46%/39% vs Cal; 53%/59% vs Stanford; 47%/32% vs WSU; 35%/44% vs UCLA; 37%/37% vs UO
Rebound +/-: +0 vs Cal; +3 vs Stanford; -6 vs WSU; -14 vs UCLA; +0 UO
Giving up Offensive rebounds is a huge issue their last two games vs athletic size...(15) to UCLA; (17) to UO. I'm not sure OSU has the capability to get that many, but between the shooting % and rebound #s OSU doesn't have to play a elite level game to get a win at Galen. There is not excuse to lose this game, even on the road vs a depleted/defeated team that was selected 2nd in the Pac12 preseason poll.
But, many numbers are similar in the conference stats:
Scoring: OSU (69.6/10th).... USC (69.4/11th)
TOs: OSU (12.5/10th)... USC (13.7/12th)
Assts: OSU (10.1/12th)... USC (16.8/T2nd)
Rebs: OSU (30.8/12th)... USC (33.4/7th)
3pt%: OSU (37.7/4th)... USC (37/ 5th)
FG%: OSU (45.4/8th)... USC (44.2/9th)
Off Eff: OSU (1.018/8th)... USC (1.004/ 10th)
Defense:
FG%: OSU (46.5/9th)... USC (44.6/6th)
3pt%: OSU (33.2/1st)... USC (39.4/11th)
RebM: OSU (-2.5/11th)... USC (-2.2/10th)
TO: OSU (10.6/8th)... USC (12.9/3rd)
Def Eff: OSU (1.108/12th)... USC (1.083/10th)
Net Eff: OSU (-0.089/12th)... USC (-0.079/11th)
In the case of these two teams pretty clear why they are fighting for 11th and 12th?! However, USC is missing their 2nd leading scorer, and almost 17 points a game.
Wasting time it is weird to see some of the individual scoring numbers. In the top 20 conference scorers (with ties):
Arizona (1)
ASU (2)
Cal (2)
Furd (3)
USC (1)
UCLA (0)
UO (2)
OSU (2)
Col (3)
Utah (1)
WSU (2)
UW (2)
Mimics the parity of the standings I guess. Wonder when the last time UCLA did not have a Top 20 conference scorer? (Bona is currently 22nd, Stefanovic 31st). And would expect high scoring UA with more than one?
