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Post by grayman on Aug 30, 2023 17:05:49 GMT -8
There is not $420 mil... and there is no legal remedy on how much and who exactly will have access. So at this time it is not a known factor. The Pacific time slot is pretty much filled with B10 and B12 teams with larger viewership. It is not near as big of factor now. What is there to play off? If the AAC travel and monetary difference in media contracts is to be basically nil. Combine that with being stuck in a long term AAC media deal... leverage? There is none. AAC has not really ventured down the "merger" path. It is wanting to add the Pac2/4. The AAC is not going to dissolve to allow the Pac2/4 to keep their incoming revenue. Unless that happens the monies will be split 12 ways. OSU has zero leverage. OSU/WSU as package a bit more than zero. The Pac4 has some leverage as the Bay area is included. But, overall unless Apple has made some deal with the Pac2/4 that is very attractive to either, the remainder of the Pac12, especially OSU alone... is a "beggar that can't be too choosy". Hate to agree with every line in a rgeorge post, but he nails it here. The only people throwing around the 420 mil number is message board posters. It isn't real, no one knows the number because it is going to take an accounting team to find all the liabilities and assets, but I think, maybe, believe it will be a LOT less then 420 mil, and that is even before the lawyers start gashing it. Our best hope is a amicable negotiated settlement with the 8 traitors, because I don't feel good about going to court trying to keep whatever horde there is. The 7pm west coast time slot was never 'coveted', it had value, but no where near the value of 4pm and 8pm east coast, and as rgeorge says, there will now be games available featuring USC or UCLA or UW or uo or Arizona or ASU at 7pm west coast, and they will be playing much better branded teams then anything in the AAC or MWC. No value there. Yeah, I'm not sure why the whole $420 million thing is getting new life here. I thought it was pretty well known there will be some money coming in but nothing close to the Pot O' Gold. |
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Post by rgeorge on Aug 30, 2023 17:12:38 GMT -8
Hate to agree with every line in a rgeorge post, but he nails it here. The only people throwing around the 420 mil number is message board posters. It isn't real, no one knows the number because it is going to take an accounting team to find all the liabilities and assets, but I think, maybe, believe it will be a LOT less then 420 mil, and that is even before the lawyers start gashing it. Our best hope is a amicable negotiated settlement with the 8 traitors, because I don't feel good about going to court trying to keep whatever horde there is. The 7pm west coast time slot was never 'coveted', it had value, but no where near the value of 4pm and 8pm east coast, and as rgeorge says, there will now be games available featuring USC or UCLA or UW or uo or Arizona or ASU at 7pm west coast, and they will be playing much better branded teams then anything in the AAC or MWC. No value there. Yeah, I'm not sure why the whole $420 million thing is getting new life here. I thought it was pretty well known there will be some money coming in but nothing close to the Pot O' Gold. The one good read (don't ask for a link... I've read too many articles, but it was probably a Wilner piece?!) concerning this less than "Pot O' Gold" is that the Comcast fees due are being deducted from the '23-24 revenue distributions. So that debt will be gone when whatever $ are actually there are available. |
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Post by angrybeaver67 on Aug 30, 2023 17:46:11 GMT -8
Interesting thoughts…
I think we keep much more value and potential for a better media deals if Stanford and Cal stay in the conference. But I am concerned Stanford (so also Cal) will bail a year or two into it, and that could cause lots of problems with our new media deal… And if they cause problems with signing a conference deal (Stanford snobbery), yeah - that would be bad as well.
And I agree - no way MWC would kick out members to join (merge with) the Pac-X. So we would be merging with the whole enchilada. This seems the most plausible route, they are geographically close to us and we (Pac-4) would definitely strengthen the MWC’s current brand. It would be a higher regarded conference than they have now, but not as highly regarded as the Pac-12 is today. This seems the best way to get a better (than current MWC or AAC) media package.
How well regarded is the AAC compared to MWC? To me - they seem less regarded. Some of those MWC football teams can be tough. And if we go in cocky or not prepared, we lose. Or in a good year like last year when we had a really good team, we sweep all 3 games we play (in football). Maybe it is just the geographical distance with the AAC teams that make me not regard them as highly.
Merging with AAC (and not adding MWC teams until maybe a few after their media deal ends) seems a less good idea. We may end up with zero additions… First is travel distance. Then less familiarity with each other… It does not seem as good as working with MWC folks, nor “feel” as comfortable. Unless it is our only option…
Adding Pac-4 plus all MWC and AAC into a super-conference, with east and west divisions seems probably too big… But who knows…? Big-12 and Big-10 (or whatever they are calling themselves) keep getting bigger… Maybe this would interest Apple, or the one pushing the media deal Pac-12 didn’t go with…?
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Aug 30, 2023 18:08:45 GMT -8
There is not $420 mil... and there is no legal remedy on how much and who exactly will have access. So at this time it is not a known factor. The Pacific time slot is pretty much filled with B10 and B12 teams with larger viewership. It is not near as big of factor now. What is there to play off? If the AAC travel and monetary difference in media contracts is to be basically nil. Combine that with being stuck in a long term AAC media deal... leverage? There is none. AAC has not really ventured down the "merger" path. It is wanting to add the Pac2/4. The AAC is not going to dissolve to allow the Pac2/4 to keep their incoming revenue. Unless that happens the monies will be split 12 ways. OSU has zero leverage. OSU/WSU as package a bit more than zero. The Pac4 has some leverage as the Bay area is included. But, overall unless Apple has made some deal with the Pac2/4 that is very attractive to either, the remainder of the Pac12, especially OSU alone... is a "beggar that can't be too choosy". Hate to agree with every line in a rgeorge post, but he nails it here. The only people throwing around the 420 mil number is message board posters. It isn't real, no one knows the number because it is going to take an accounting team to find all the liabilities and assets, but I think, maybe, believe it will be a LOT less then 420 mil, and that is even before the lawyers start gashing it. Our best hope is a amicable negotiated settlement with the 8 traitors, because I don't feel good about going to court trying to keep whatever horde there is. The 7pm west coast time slot was never 'coveted', it had value, but no where near the value of 4pm and 8pm east coast, and as rgeorge says, there will now be games available featuring USC or UCLA or UW or uo or Arizona or ASU at 7pm west coast, and they will be playing much better branded teams then anything in the AAC or MWC. No value there. Who knows what the actual number is, but it's not about current assets and liabilities. It's supposedly about NCAA $$ to be distributed to the PAC conference over the next 5 years. The number was given by a reporter (Canzano?) who may have been estimating/guessing the 5 year total distributions. Those who have chosen to leave the conference have given up their rights to those distributions (according to conference bylaws they signed off on) should the conference not dissolve. Remember, the conference is a separate entity, and those who announced leaving no longer have a vote. The conference is still "alive", with 12 teams and 4 current voting members - could be 2 by this weekend. IF the conference dissolves, then it goes to assets and liabilities. Actual current assets are estimated to be 43 million or less. If the conference dissolves as an entity, then it'll be a financial mess that all 12 current teams split. |
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Aug 30, 2023 18:35:14 GMT -8
I'm starting to see joining the mwc to be the best option for OSU and WSU.
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Post by angrybeaver67 on Aug 30, 2023 18:46:30 GMT -8
I'm starting to see joining the mwc to be the best option for OSU and WSU. If we can’t join a higher regarded conference (B-12), getting MWC to join us seems the next best option to me - especially if we keep Stanford and Cal. |
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Post by beaver55to7 on Aug 30, 2023 19:18:45 GMT -8
Hate to agree with every line in a rgeorge post, but he nails it here. The only people throwing around the 420 mil number is message board posters. It isn't real, no one knows the number because it is going to take an accounting team to find all the liabilities and assets, but I think, maybe, believe it will be a LOT less then 420 mil, and that is even before the lawyers start gashing it. Our best hope is a amicable negotiated settlement with the 8 traitors, because I don't feel good about going to court trying to keep whatever horde there is. The 7pm west coast time slot was never 'coveted', it had value, but no where near the value of 4pm and 8pm east coast, and as rgeorge says, there will now be games available featuring USC or UCLA or UW or uo or Arizona or ASU at 7pm west coast, and they will be playing much better branded teams then anything in the AAC or MWC. No value there. Who knows what the actual number is, but it's not about current assets and liabilities. It's supposedly about NCAA $$ to be distributed to the PAC conference over the next 5 years. The number was given by a reporter (Canzano?) who may have been estimating/guessing the 5 year total distributions. Those who have chosen to leave the conference have given up their rights to those distributions (according to conference bylaws they signed off on) should the conference not dissolve. Remember, the conference is a separate entity, and those who announced leaving no longer have a vote. The conference is still "alive", with 12 teams and 4 current voting members - could be 2 by this weekend. IF the conference dissolves, then it goes to assets and liabilities. Actual current assets are estimated to be 43 million or less. If the conference dissolves as an entity, then it'll be a financial mess that all 12 current teams split. I’m glad you’re confident of your extensive reading of the documents. I’m not. The way I read it the departing schools have to deliver the letter and be in breach. I have no idea if they have formally delivered the letter and I am pretty confident they are not in breach (ie delivering a letter that says they are leaving before July 1, 2024, or whatever the date is). Note, I AM NOT A LAWYER, but I assume the departing schools have lawyers, and I am confident those lawyers will be looking after the departing schools interests. |
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Post by grayman on Aug 30, 2023 19:20:14 GMT -8
OSU and WSU would have to join the MWC. The MWC is not going to become the new Pac.
The best road to take (assuming the Big 12 is out) is to join with AAC teams and eventually add MWC teams and maybe others (ACC castoffs?).
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Aug 30, 2023 20:10:34 GMT -8
OSU and WSU would have to join the MWC. The MWC is not going to become the new Pac. The best road to take (assuming the Big 12 is out) is to join with AAC teams and eventually add MWC teams and maybe others (ACC castoffs?). The MWC would jump to the PAC in a second if we could get a 6 year deal for 10+ million a team. Quite doable, likely higher, if Apple wants football in any near future. Except for BSU, they're all getting just 4 mil a team. There's zero conference buyout if they decide to come to the PAC. OSU and WSU, on the other hand, would take a much bigger hit going to the MWC. No PAC 12 war chest, no matter what the actual amount is. Maybe CBS would renegotiate a bit and pay more to OSU and WSU and give the others a bit more just to keep Apple from snagging the league... but I doubt they'll iffer what Apple does. It's a win/win for both conferences. The Monty Show did a video tonight saying the Pac is still very much alive according to "several sources" he's heard from. He was praising Barnes especially, apparently Barnes has been aggressively working things. I'm not certain it's all about the MWC conference either, apparently Barnes has been pushing to retain P5 status. Don't know that that could happen unless Standord and Cal stayed and played along. I know it's all hearsay, but he's been right about a lot of things once things shook out. There's no telling how this all pans out yet, but OSU and WSU do not "have to join the MWC" to merge. It would be the last option. |
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Post by seastape on Aug 30, 2023 20:16:17 GMT -8
Stanford and Cal joining a conference with Fresno State and Boise State. I'd be shocked.
I've been waffling between wanting 1) the 4-6 best AAC teams and the 4-6 best MWC teams and 2) just the whole of the MWC.
But I'm rounding into wanting just the MWC. I'd like to be the conference of the West, where our easternmost states just touch the Midwest and our athletes have a sane travel schedule.
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Aug 30, 2023 20:37:13 GMT -8
Stanford and Cal joining a conference with Fresno State and Boise State. I'd be shocked. I've been waffling between wanting 1) the 4-6 best AAC teams and the 4-6 best MWC teams and 2) just the whole of the MWC. But I'm rounding into wanting just the MWC. I'd like to be the conference of the West, where our easternmost states just touch the Midwest and our athletes have a sane travel schedule. Keep it regional. There was a lot of talk here how the Judas teams are dumb because of the travel. Now there is a desire to do just that? |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Aug 30, 2023 21:23:51 GMT -8
Stanford and Cal joining a conference with Fresno State and Boise State. I'd be shocked. I've been waffling between wanting 1) the 4-6 best AAC teams and the 4-6 best MWC teams and 2) just the whole of the MWC. But I'm rounding into wanting just the MWC. I'd like to be the conference of the West, where our easternmost states just touch the Midwest and our athletes have a sane travel schedule. Keep it regional. There was a lot of talk here how the Judas teams are dumb because of the travel. Now there is a desire to do just that? We likely couldn't afford to merge with the AAC because of the travel. I could see taking AAC teams as part of a conference big enough to have east and west divisions. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Aug 30, 2023 21:32:28 GMT -8
Who knows what the actual number is, but it's not about current assets and liabilities. It's supposedly about NCAA $$ to be distributed to the PAC conference over the next 5 years. The number was given by a reporter (Canzano?) who may have been estimating/guessing the 5 year total distributions. Those who have chosen to leave the conference have given up their rights to those distributions (according to conference bylaws they signed off on) should the conference not dissolve. Remember, the conference is a separate entity, and those who announced leaving no longer have a vote. The conference is still "alive", with 12 teams and 4 current voting members - could be 2 by this weekend. IF the conference dissolves, then it goes to assets and liabilities. Actual current assets are estimated to be 43 million or less. If the conference dissolves as an entity, then it'll be a financial mess that all 12 current teams split. I’m glad you’re confident of your extensive reading of the documents. I’m not. The way I read it the departing schools have to deliver the letter and be in breach. I have no idea if they have formally delivered the letter and I am pretty confident they are not in breach (ie delivering a letter that says they are leaving before July 1, 2024, or whatever the date is). Note, I AM NOT A LAWYER, but I assume the departing schools have lawyers, and I am confident those lawyers will be looking after the departing schools interests. It's August 1, 2024. And all of the other schools have already received and accepted written invitations to other conferences. It's set to August 1, 2024, because I am sure that schedules will be announced before then. The other schools can try and get cute, if they really want to, but they will lose that. I mean all that you would have to do is put up a random tweet by Chip Kelly or Prime Time or Whittingham or the President of Arizona or the President of Washington. And then you would probably be awarded sanctions, because even the worst judge in the world would find that a stupid argument. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Aug 30, 2023 21:35:44 GMT -8
Keep it regional. There was a lot of talk here how the Judas teams are dumb because of the travel. Now there is a desire to do just that? We likely couldn't afford to merge with the AAC because of the travel. I could see taking AAC teams as part of a conference big enough to have east and west divisions. Two years of a merged AAC-Pac-12. Add 2-4 Mountain West schools after those two years. |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Aug 30, 2023 21:47:20 GMT -8
We likely couldn't afford to merge with the AAC because of the travel. I could see taking AAC teams as part of a conference big enough to have east and west divisions. Two years of a merged AAC-Pac-12. Add 2-4 Mountain West schools after those two years. That is a possibility if there's a decent media deal. There was talk of something along those lines a few weeks back but BSU and SDSU might be able to swing it a year earlier. Gotta have a pretty good media deal to do it if it could really increase travel expenses by millions. |
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