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Post by aggielarry on Aug 13, 2023 12:39:55 GMT -8
I say give aggielarry the heave ho. I don’t really care what Utah states perspective is on our situation, and the guy is just annoying. If we end up rebuilding the pac without utah state or if we end up in the big12/aac etc we will never hear from the guy again, and if we end up in the MW we will never hear the end of him, might as well push him overboard now. First, thanks to those that have been supportive of my commentary. Second, my apologies to beaver55to7 and anyone else I may have offended. I don't apologize for the content, but I know that I have a tendency to not be very, well, diplomatic... Ask the very fetching Mrs. AggieLarry, I can be a real jerk. There is one thing I really don't want to get lost in all of this. Everyone, EVERYONE in the MWC has enormous respect for OSU and WSU. We see institutions that are of our kind, western Land Grant schools, but that have really taken it to the next level in every way, both academics and athletics. We would love to have both schools in the MWC, and we see it as a true win - win. Through circumstances beyond your control, you are in a crappy situation. Denying that is avoiding what needs to be done to resolve it. Merging with the MWC is not a great option, but it's the least bad option, and probably the only realistic one. And there is no denying that it would benefit the MWC and the current members enormously. And I do try to be a good guest. I visit the Wyoming fan page regularly. At the moment, Wyoming is the school and fan base in the MWC that I think most resembles USU and our fans. If you merge with the MWC, I'll probably be back a few times each year, and I'll cheer for the Beavers in every game but one... |
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Post by speakthetruth on Aug 13, 2023 12:45:35 GMT -8
I like aggielarry's posts because he adds the MWC perspective, necessary to fans of the Pac 4 teams as a reminder that the Pac 4 teams do not have all the negotiating power when it comes to a potential merger with the MWC. He's right: If nothing changes, the MWC still has a full conference with a media deal and two years to get the next media deal done. If nothing changed for the Pac 4, things get scary and right quickly at that. In case you are interested, the attendance figures for last year for the teams: Pac 12 teams are given from the site FanNation and MWC teams from Wikipedia aggregates.
Fresno St................................39,067 Cal: ........................................38,596 Boise St................................. 35,121 Air Force: ...............................31,414 Stanford: ................................29,965 San Diego State......................29,225 OSU: ......................................28,400 (construction) Colorado St.............................26,891 WSU: ......................................26,185 UNLV........................................22,113 Wyoming.................................19,677 Utah State: .............................16,951 San Jose St.............................16,422 New Mexico..............................14,994 Nevada....................................14,905 Hawaii......................................<10,000 (construction) I think most of the Pac 4 numbers will drop if they merge with the MWC. Not even Fresno State is the draw that the rest of the Pac 12 was. If the Pac 4 numbers drop, they'll probably still be in the upper half of the conference. We (Pac 4 teams) will take a hit in money, obviously, but we still have power in that we will add more teams with higher numbers than most of the MWC. The bargaining power is not all with one side or the other. On the other hand, the Pac 4 teams annihilate the MWC in television viewership, which is where it counts: Source: medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2022-94eca4f6acbd#:~:text=Ranking%20the%20most-watched%20college%20football%20programs%20in%202022,%E2%80%94%203.22M%208%20Texas%20%E2%80%94%203.06M%20More%20items Washington State — 907K California — 857K Stanford — 846K Oregon State — 625K Colorado State — 386K Boise State — 353K Air Force — 326K Utah State — 324K Fresno State — 220K San Diego State — 198K Wyoming — 154K Nevada — 116.4K San Jose State — 53K Hawaii — 43K New Mexico — 17.5K I didn't see UNLV on this list. There is no way Cal averaged 38K. Maybe if you added all their home games. |
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Post by seastape on Aug 13, 2023 13:02:14 GMT -8
I like aggielarry's posts because he adds the MWC perspective, necessary to fans of the Pac 4 teams as a reminder that the Pac 4 teams do not have all the negotiating power when it comes to a potential merger with the MWC. He's right: If nothing changes, the MWC still has a full conference with a media deal and two years to get the next media deal done. If nothing changed for the Pac 4, things get scary and right quickly at that. In case you are interested, the attendance figures for last year for the teams: Pac 12 teams are given from the site FanNation and MWC teams from Wikipedia aggregates.
Fresno St................................39,067 Cal: ........................................38,596 Boise St................................. 35,121 Air Force: ...............................31,414 Stanford: ................................29,965 San Diego State......................29,225 OSU: ......................................28,400 (construction) Colorado St.............................26,891 WSU: ......................................26,185 UNLV........................................22,113 Wyoming.................................19,677 Utah State: .............................16,951 San Jose St.............................16,422 New Mexico..............................14,994 Nevada....................................14,905 Hawaii......................................<10,000 (construction) I think most of the Pac 4 numbers will drop if they merge with the MWC. Not even Fresno State is the draw that the rest of the Pac 12 was. If the Pac 4 numbers drop, they'll probably still be in the upper half of the conference. We (Pac 4 teams) will take a hit in money, obviously, but we still have power in that we will add more teams with higher numbers than most of the MWC. The bargaining power is not all with one side or the other. On the other hand, the Pac 4 teams annihilate the MWC in television viewership, which is where it counts: Source: medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2022-94eca4f6acbd#:~:text=Ranking%20the%20most-watched%20college%20football%20programs%20in%202022,%E2%80%94%203.22M%208%20Texas%20%E2%80%94%203.06M%20More%20items Washington State — 907K California — 857K Stanford — 846K Oregon State — 625K Colorado State — 386K Boise State — 353K Air Force — 326K Utah State — 324K Fresno State — 220K San Diego State — 198K Wyoming — 154K Nevada — 116.4K San Jose State — 53K Hawaii — 43K New Mexico — 17.5K I didn't see UNLV on this list. There is no way Cal averaged 38K. Maybe if you added all their home games. I definitely had questions about that, but I just took it all at face value rather than dig too deep into attendance breakdowns. I also have no doubt that Pac 4 television viewership numbers will decline when they start playing New Mexico and Colorado St. vs. Utah and UW. |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Aug 13, 2023 13:02:59 GMT -8
I like aggielarry's posts because he adds the MWC perspective, necessary to fans of the Pac 4 teams as a reminder that the Pac 4 teams do not have all the negotiating power when it comes to a potential merger with the MWC. He's right: If nothing changes, the MWC still has a full conference with a media deal and two years to get the next media deal done. If nothing changed for the Pac 4, things get scary and right quickly at that. In case you are interested, the attendance figures for last year for the teams: Pac 12 teams are given from the site FanNation and MWC teams from Wikipedia aggregates.
Fresno St................................39,067 Cal: ........................................38,596 Boise St................................. 35,121 Air Force: ...............................31,414 Stanford: ................................29,965 San Diego State......................29,225 OSU: ......................................28,400 (construction) Colorado St.............................26,891 WSU: ......................................26,185 UNLV........................................22,113 Wyoming.................................19,677 Utah State: .............................16,951 San Jose St.............................16,422 New Mexico..............................14,994 Nevada....................................14,905 Hawaii......................................<10,000 (construction) I think most of the Pac 4 numbers will drop if they merge with the MWC. Not even Fresno State is the draw that the rest of the Pac 12 was. If the Pac 4 numbers drop, they'll probably still be in the upper half of the conference. We (Pac 4 teams) will take a hit in money, obviously, but we still have power in that we will add more teams with higher numbers than most of the MWC. The bargaining power is not all with one side or the other. On the other hand, the Pac 4 teams annihilate the MWC in television viewership, which is where it counts: Source: medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2022-94eca4f6acbd#:~:text=Ranking%20the%20most-watched%20college%20football%20programs%20in%202022,%E2%80%94%203.22M%208%20Texas%20%E2%80%94%203.06M%20More%20items Washington State — 907K California — 857K Stanford — 846K Oregon State — 625K Colorado State — 386K Boise State — 353K Air Force — 326K Utah State — 324K Fresno State — 220K San Diego State — 198K Wyoming — 154K Nevada — 116.4K San Jose State — 53K Hawaii — 43K New Mexico — 17.5K I didn't see UNLV on this list. I'm thinking the Pac 4, if they stick together, have significantly more negotiating power than the MWC. Considering they're currently getting 4 million a team a year, I suspect the MWC can't negotiate a 12 million a team a year, at least not until their current deal is done in 3 or 4 years. I think the Pac can, likely for more than 12 million, and for the 2024 season. They can make a media deal, perhaps take themselves a larger share, while also bringingin royalties that come in from the previous 5 post seasons, and the MWC can just fold. Zero conference buyout, and the MWC teams could at that point easily afford to buy out their existing contract and still be bringing more in, right away. The new Pac Whatever conference would not likely command quite the deal the whole existing Pac 12 could have, but as rgeorge put it, a "MWC on steroids" would be able to do ok. The Pac doesn't have to join the MWC. IF the remaining 4 stick together, and make it obvious that's the plan, there would likely be other G5 teams that would want to join. The WMC would be missing out on a lot by not joining the PAC. The PAC 4 holds more negotiating power than some might expect, ever though they are only the remaining third of a once venerable conference. |
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Post by seastape on Aug 13, 2023 13:12:21 GMT -8
I like aggielarry's posts because he adds the MWC perspective, necessary to fans of the Pac 4 teams as a reminder that the Pac 4 teams do not have all the negotiating power when it comes to a potential merger with the MWC. He's right: If nothing changes, the MWC still has a full conference with a media deal and two years to get the next media deal done. If nothing changed for the Pac 4, things get scary and right quickly at that. In case you are interested, the attendance figures for last year for the teams: Pac 12 teams are given from the site FanNation and MWC teams from Wikipedia aggregates.
Fresno St................................39,067 Cal: ........................................38,596 Boise St................................. 35,121 Air Force: ...............................31,414 Stanford: ................................29,965 San Diego State......................29,225 OSU: ......................................28,400 (construction) Colorado St.............................26,891 WSU: ......................................26,185 UNLV........................................22,113 Wyoming.................................19,677 Utah State: .............................16,951 San Jose St.............................16,422 New Mexico..............................14,994 Nevada....................................14,905 Hawaii......................................<10,000 (construction) I think most of the Pac 4 numbers will drop if they merge with the MWC. Not even Fresno State is the draw that the rest of the Pac 12 was. If the Pac 4 numbers drop, they'll probably still be in the upper half of the conference. We (Pac 4 teams) will take a hit in money, obviously, but we still have power in that we will add more teams with higher numbers than most of the MWC. The bargaining power is not all with one side or the other. On the other hand, the Pac 4 teams annihilate the MWC in television viewership, which is where it counts: Source: medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2022-94eca4f6acbd#:~:text=Ranking%20the%20most-watched%20college%20football%20programs%20in%202022,%E2%80%94%203.22M%208%20Texas%20%E2%80%94%203.06M%20More%20items Washington State — 907K California — 857K Stanford — 846K Oregon State — 625K Colorado State — 386K Boise State — 353K Air Force — 326K Utah State — 324K Fresno State — 220K San Diego State — 198K Wyoming — 154K Nevada — 116.4K San Jose State — 53K Hawaii — 43K New Mexico — 17.5K I didn't see UNLV on this list. I'm thinking the Pac 4, if they stick together, have significantly more negotiating power than the MWC. Considering they're currently getting 4 million a team a year, I suspect the MWC can't negotiate a 12 million a team a year, at least not until their current deal is done in 3 or 4 years. I think the Pac can, likely for more than 22 million, and for the 2024 season. They can make a media deal, perhaps take themselves a larger share, while also bringingin royalties that come in from the previous 5 post seasons, and the MWC can just fold. Zero conference buyout, and the MWC teams could at that point easily afford to buy out their existing contract and still be bringing more in, right away. The new Pac Whatever conference would not likely command quite the deal the whole existing Pac 12 could have, but as rgeorge put it, a "MWC on steroids" would be able to do ok. The Pac doesn't have to join the MWC. IF the remaining 4 stick together, and make it obvious that's the plan, there would likely be other G5 teams that would want to join. The WMC would be missing out on a lot by not joining the PAC. The PAC 4 holds more negotiating power than some might expect, ever though they are only the remaining third of a once venerable conference. I agree with what you say to a great extent, but I think that the Pac 4 is under tremendous pressure to add at least four teams, realistically, and to do it within two years. The Pac 4 can wait out the MWC to fold but the reverse is also a possibility. That affects not only the value of the to-be-negotiated media rights deal but the terms, as well. The Pac 4 y cannot just sit back and do nothing. |
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ftd
Junior
"I think real leaders show up when times are hard." Trent Bray 11/29/2023
Posts: 2,517
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Post by ftd on Aug 13, 2023 13:32:09 GMT -8
Preserving & Rebuilding the PAC would be the greatest FU to those who abandoned the PAC. I realize a complete long shot, but at this point the fact that it is being examined as an option pleases me. Let's assume that the Pac 4 teams can rebuild the Pac into a decent conference....Let's also assume that in 5 yrs or so, the whole re-alignment across multiple time zones experiment is an utter failure...and the dirty 8 wan't back into a Pacific/Mountain Time zone conference.. They come in with big bucks... What happens? |
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Post by irimi on Aug 13, 2023 14:24:31 GMT -8
Preserving & Rebuilding the PAC would be the greatest FU to those who abandoned the PAC. I realize a complete long shot, but at this point the fact that it is being examined as an option pleases me. Let's assume that the Pac 4 teams can rebuild the Pac into a decent conference....Let's also assume that in 5 yrs or so, the whole re-alignment across multiple time zones experiment is an utter failure...and the dirty 8 wan't back into a Pacific/Mountain Time zone conference.. They come in with big bucks... What happens? We accept them back. Otherwise, they would create another Pac conference which could leave us hurting. It sucks, but there’s no way around it. |
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Post by irimi on Aug 13, 2023 14:25:28 GMT -8
Preserving & Rebuilding the PAC would be the greatest FU to those who abandoned the PAC. I realize a complete long shot, but at this point the fact that it is being examined as an option pleases me. Let's assume that the Pac 4 teams can rebuild the Pac into a decent conference....Let's also assume that in 5 yrs or so, the whole re-alignment across multiple time zones experiment is an utter failure...and the dirty 8 wan't back into a Pacific/Mountain Time zone conference.. They come in with big bucks... What happens? Or maybe take them all but Oregon. |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Aug 13, 2023 14:31:51 GMT -8
I like aggielarry's posts because he adds the MWC perspective, necessary to fans of the Pac 4 teams as a reminder that the Pac 4 teams do not have all the negotiating power when it comes to a potential merger with the MWC. He's right: If nothing changes, the MWC still has a full conference with a media deal and two years to get the next media deal done. If nothing changed for the Pac 4, things get scary and right quickly at that. In case you are interested, the attendance figures for last year for the teams: Pac 12 teams are given from the site FanNation and MWC teams from Wikipedia aggregates.
Fresno St................................39,067 Cal: ........................................38,596 Boise St................................. 35,121 Air Force: ...............................31,414 Stanford: ................................29,965 San Diego State......................29,225 OSU: ......................................28,400 (construction) Colorado St.............................26,891 WSU: ......................................26,185 UNLV........................................22,113 Wyoming.................................19,677 Utah State: .............................16,951 San Jose St.............................16,422 New Mexico..............................14,994 Nevada....................................14,905 Hawaii......................................<10,000 (construction) I think most of the Pac 4 numbers will drop if they merge with the MWC. Not even Fresno State is the draw that the rest of the Pac 12 was. If the Pac 4 numbers drop, they'll probably still be in the upper half of the conference. We (Pac 4 teams) will take a hit in money, obviously, but we still have power in that we will add more teams with higher numbers than most of the MWC. The bargaining power is not all with one side or the other. On the other hand, the Pac 4 teams annihilate the MWC in television viewership, which is where it counts: Source: medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2022-94eca4f6acbd#:~:text=Ranking%20the%20most-watched%20college%20football%20programs%20in%202022,%E2%80%94%203.22M%208%20Texas%20%E2%80%94%203.06M%20More%20items Washington State — 907K California — 857K Stanford — 846K Oregon State — 625K Colorado State — 386K Boise State — 353K Air Force — 326K Utah State — 324K Fresno State — 220K San Diego State — 198K Wyoming — 154K Nevada — 116.4K San Jose State — 53K Hawaii — 43K New Mexico — 17.5K I didn't see UNLV on this list. There is no way Cal averaged 38K. Maybe if you added all their home games. This is home attendance. Cal had Oregon, Washington, Stanford and UCLA at home last season. I'm shocked they didn't draw more. That is a premium home conference schedule. |
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Post by ee1990 on Aug 13, 2023 17:20:40 GMT -8
The dilemma for the PAC-4 is, of the four desirable characteristics of a conference mate, athletic success, academic excellence, significant market share in a large television market, and geographic proximity, there are no candidates who check all four boxes. Any school that checks all four boxes is already in a stronger conference, and has absolutely no desire to move. I'm not sure there are any that even check three. Pretty much the best you can do is two criteria. At that point, you have to decide which two you really, really care about. Life is not fair... But, as that great philosopher Mick Jagger said, "You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you get what you need..." I have no idea what Cal and Stanford will do. The best option for OSU and WSU would appear to be a merger with the MWC as presently constituted. All of the MWC schools understand the situation as outlined above. The MWC has the upper hand. Thinking you can get two, or four, or eight to jump ship is a pipe dream. And again, even the two "best" MWC schools only fulfill two criteria. Sooner or later, you're going to have to deal with harsh reality. Academic success, while it would be great, is no longer a factor - unless Stanford and Cal say it is. Enforcing this breaks other characteristics. Significant market share in a large television market is also gone, depending upon what you consider large. I know people love to say Fresno controls Sacramento, but there is no evidence I've seen to support this. SMU only controls a fraction of Dallas (for now), but at least has potential. CSU controls part of Denver, but not the bulk - especially not with Deion at Colorado now. The geographic proximity could be accomplished through divisions. I continue to believe that the best path forward is the rumor floated the other day about SDSU wanting to form a conference out of the Pac-4, the best of the MW and the best of the AAC. Use divisions for all but maybe 1 or maybe 2 games to keep regionality and travel costs low, but it still allows you to get your team noticed in some other geographic regionality. You're going to need this if you want to enter national conversations. An only-west conference is already cursed by time zone, etc. If Cal and Stanford can deal with the commoners - Cal, Stanford, WSU and OSU, SDSU, CSU, and let's say UNLV and Fresno on the one side... on the other side SMU, Tulane, Memphis, UTSA and pick 4 on the other side. But doing this requires around a lot of buyout money. Also not sure there is enough media $$$ to go around. Sample OSU schedule: - OOC 1 - OOC 2 - OOC 3 - Cal - Fresno - SMU - SDSU - UNLV - Tulane - Stanford - CSU - WSU Olympic sports would still have plenty of places to play on the West coast, reducing travel costs and need for $$$. The problem here is that they'd have to vote to dissolve the MWC, and why would the teams not joining this new better conference do that? I think I read they'd need 9 votes. A full blown 16 team merger seems more likely? Although I maintain belief, based on nothing, that Stanford will never join a conference with universities that have trucking schools, and will do something on their own. edit: I see aggielarry already covered this. |
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Post by ee1990 on Aug 13, 2023 17:25:41 GMT -8
Let's assume that the Pac 4 teams can rebuild the Pac into a decent conference....Let's also assume that in 5 yrs or so, the whole re-alignment across multiple time zones experiment is an utter failure...and the dirty 8 wan't back into a Pacific/Mountain Time zone conference.. They come in with big bucks... What happens? We accept them back. Otherwise, they would create another Pac conference which could leave us hurting. It sucks, but there’s no way around it. We would be joining them, not the other way around. |
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Post by irimi on Aug 13, 2023 17:28:36 GMT -8
We accept them back. Otherwise, they would create another Pac conference which could leave us hurting. It sucks, but there’s no way around it. We would be joining them, not the other way around. Did you read ftd’s hypothetical set up? |
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Post by ee1990 on Aug 13, 2023 17:34:16 GMT -8
We would be joining them, not the other way around. Did you read ftd’s hypothetical set up? "they come in with big bucks" |
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Post by ee1990 on Aug 13, 2023 17:38:22 GMT -8
Thanks for your perspective. When you say "two 'best' MWC schools," I think you are referring to San Diego State as #1 but for #2 . . . . Fresno? Boise? Colorado State? UNLV? your school? I honestly have no idea. That's why I put "best" in quotation marks. Best is pretty subjective, depending on which qualities you value. Five MWC schools are R1 universities: CSU, UNLV, Nevada, New Mexico, and USU. I'm too lazy to slog through the numbers, but I have heard repeatedly that over the last ten years, the top three teams in football have been Boise State, San Diego State, and Utah State. In Basketball, It's been San Diego State, Utah State, and probably Nevada. Again, no one is an ideal candidate. What everyone knows is: The buy-out fees for the MWC are substantial (by MWC standards), and would require the votes of nine of the eleven full members to waive. Very unlikely to happen, given that: Any rebuilt PAC-X is going to have a media deal not much better that what the MWC will get. A rebuilt PAC-X is going to be unstable, since Stanford, and probably Cal, would jump at the first opportunity. So, every MWC member knows that anyone jumping ship to the rebuilt PAC-X would have substantial up front costs, with absolutely no guarantee of a reasonable long term return. It's a pig in a poke. The current MWC on the other hand, is a stable, known quantity, reasonably geographically compact, similar universities, unlikely to see any drop in media revenue. No one in the MWC is going to win a national championship in football or men's basketball, but we all accept that. We're in it for regional competition with established rivals. Everyone in the MWC would be happy to have OSU and WSU. Frankly, I'm OK that Cal and Stanford would rather not join the conference; I'm not sure that I'd want them. I just don't think they'd fit in. Great post. I think we'd be pretty comfortable in the MWC, finances aside. |
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Post by TheGlove on Aug 13, 2023 19:24:46 GMT -8
aggielarry is welcome here at Benny’s House. He registered Dec 4, 2021 at 10:36pm and brings some good stuff to the table.
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