OSU President Murthy on Preserving the Pac 12

Uh, no.

The MWC would take the deal in a heartbeat because it's a windfall.  Two weeks ago, our only real prospects for expansion were NMSU and UTEP.  Now, we have the prospect of adding two much stronger schools that fit the profile of the core MWC institutions, Land Grant universities in the west, and who need a place to land.

So, a little thought experiment.  What if in three years nothing has changed from the current situation?  For the MWC, we'll still be a fully functional 11/12 team conference with a media deal.  Sure, we'd like the media deal to be a little more lucrative.  Heck, the SEC wants their media deal to be a little more lucrative.

How about OSU three years from now if the situation hasn't changed?  You'll be an independent.  You need eight teams to be a conference.  You have four.  You'll be filling your football schedule with FCS teams.  You'll have no media deal.

You can be reasonable, or we can just wait...

So, to summarize, the clock is ticking on at least three major items. 1- Football and basketball schedules. You can't hold out on those forever, or you'll end up playing 8 FCS teams. 2 - The NCAA rule that a conference has to have eight members. Typically, the NCAA gives a two year grace period. That sounds like a lot of time, but when you consider everything involved in not just "a school switching conferences", but "four schools being convinced to switch conferences, then actually switching", two years is a very narrow window. 3 - The media deal. This is incredibly enmeshed with recruiting other schools to continue to qualify as a conference. What media outlet is going to give an attractive contract to a four team conference on the promise of "We're going to add four more schools. We don't know who they are yet, but trust us, they're going to be great!"? And without an attractive media contract, what school is going to make the jump on the promise of "Hey, we're going to bring in you guys, plus three other schools that we haven't identified yet. Then, a media outlet that we also haven't identified yet is going to give us a great contract, for an amount of money that we can't tell you, because we don't know yet. But yeah, it's going to be great!"?

But sure, you have the upper hand...

It may take a MW deal to hear the end of him. Post deal I can't think of any reason why he would have any more interest in an OSU board than any other. He's just like any other poster--writes about what he is interested in. In the meantime, he offers one MW/Utah State fan perspective.

I am glad we have aggielarry’s perspective. He paints a somewhat attractive picture, that life will not come to an end for us should we wind up in the MWC. His posts seem well thought through, respectful and friendly. Even if we may not agree with every last detail, it’s nice to have his perspective.

Like all Beaver fans I just want the best landing spot possible for our team. No doubt, OSU and our fan base culture would fit in well with the MWC - the teams and their teams’ fan bases.

But I am concerned that route means we lose some of our best coaches and players, and that it means we become increasingly irrelevant… “If” the Pac-12 can somehow be resurrected with keeping all 4 remaining and adding at least 4 more quality schools that “should” be better than MWC. We’ll see…

After reading... yours would be a very, very liberal interpretation of her words. 

If ur an involved MW fan like AggieLarry, why wouldn't you be all up in our biz......for them, this is a good thing potentially. Most of the teams in the MW were WAC teams not that long ago......they are thinking about climbing the ladder while we get knocked down a few rungs.

I like aggielarry's posts because he adds the MWC perspective, necessary to fans of the Pac 4 teams as a reminder that the Pac 4 teams do not have all the negotiating power when it comes to a potential merger with the MWC. He's right: If nothing changes, the MWC still has a full conference with a media deal and two years to get the next media deal done. If nothing changed for the Pac 4, things get scary and right quickly at that. 

In case you are interested, the attendance figures for last year for the teams:
Pac 12 teams are given from the site FanNation and MWC teams from Wikipedia aggregates.

Fresno St................................39,067
Cal: ........................................38,596
Boise St................................. 35,121
Air Force: ...............................31,414
Stanford: ................................29,965
San Diego State......................29,225
OSU: ......................................28,400 (construction)
Colorado St.............................26,891
WSU: ......................................26,185
UNLV........................................22,113
Wyoming.................................19,677
Utah State: .............................16,951
San Jose St.............................16,422
New Mexico..............................14,994
Nevada....................................14,905
Hawaii......................................<10,000 (construction)

I think most of the Pac 4 numbers will drop if they merge with the MWC. Not even Fresno State is the draw that the rest of the Pac 12 was. If the Pac 4 numbers drop, they'll probably still be in the upper half of the conference. 

We (Pac 4 teams) will take a hit in money, obviously, but we still have power in that we will add more teams with higher numbers than most of the MWC. The bargaining power is not all with one side or the other. 

On the other hand, the Pac 4 teams annihilate the MWC in television viewership, which is where it counts:
Source: medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-were-the-most-watched-in-2022-94eca4f6acbd#:~:text=Ranking%20the%20most-watched%20college%20football%20programs%20in%202022,%E2%80%94%203.22M%208%20Texas%20%E2%80%94%203.06M%20More%20items

Washington State — 907K
California — 857K
Stanford — 846K
Oregon State — 625K
Colorado State — 386K
Boise State — 353K
Air Force — 326K
Utah State — 324K
Fresno State — 220K
San Diego State — 198K
Wyoming — 154K
Nevada — 116.4K
San Jose State — 53K
Hawaii — 43K
New Mexico — 17.5K

I didn't see UNLV on this list. 

And, she's right about that. Conferences like the Pac12 are solely athletics based, nothing to do with academics and the university's persona. OSU, and WSU, really never fit in with most of the Pac12 in that way. Nor did our fan bases. OSU athletics may "change", but they can still excel and be more about the overall persona of OSU's "north star". It is what I like about the MWC merger. OSU is still D1 and is eligible for every post season opportunity is was in the Pac12. Less money for sure, but OSU was never going to fit in at the big money table, "one chip" or not.

I would love to see the "new" Pac, be the MWC on roids... excuse the analogy. A solid conference of academic and athletic institutions that can compete with the big boys for titles on occasion and not have sold their soul to media moguls. The same moguls that are seeing their empires being diminished by tech companies with much larger wallets and creativity.

In fact, I'd love to see the "new Pac" thrive with Apple and linear programming to the extent that the also rans in the SEC, B10, B12 see how happy and successful we are that they too want their own departures. Maybe a Chip Kelly idea for us "have nots" is a great idea, 36-48 schools in 3-4 divisions, and EFF the big boys. I'd love to see those elite teams only be left with elite teams to schedule... and the ensuing panic when 4-5 loss seasons become their norm.


Maybe OSU and the Pac4/MWC merger with a solid Apple deal is the start of what true college football needs?!