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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 11, 2023 16:01:18 GMT -8
That's a big but Wilky  Yep, and the hosting in 2007 was only due to the Michigan AD having no confidence in his baseball team to beat Vandy. Big thanks to him for starting construction that early. So much went right once Oregon State lost to Virginia the first time. Tropical Storm Barry rolled through, Michigan took down Vandy, and Michigan could not host. Cal State Fullerton picked off the eight-seed, and UC Irvine picked off four-seed Texas. Irvine picked off both Cal State Fullerton and Arizona State in the losers' bracket to set up a very winnable semifinal game. #2 Rice burned up #3 North Carolina's pitching staff. Oregon State did not have to face North Carolina's ace, Robert Woodard, until the Heels belatedly put him in in the eighth of game two, trying to pull a Kevin Abel. It all came together so perfectly. From a team that almost did not get in to the most dominant team ever in Omaha. Ridiculous. |
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Post by 56chevy on May 13, 2023 20:39:12 GMT -8
I'm calling it. Win tomorrow, we host!
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 13, 2023 21:28:44 GMT -8
I'm calling it. Win tomorrow, we host! Oregon State got opponents to win. However, games around Oregon State conspired to mute the Beavers' win. Oregon State's eternal rival, North Carolina, swept NC State to pass the Beavs like they were sitting still. Southern Miss beat RPI poison ULM to stay ahead of Oregon State. Oklahoma State won to get the Cowboys out of the Beavers' striking distance. Auburn completed the sweep of Ole Miss. Miami beat Pittsburgh. West Virginia beat Texas Tech. And East Carolina beat Memphis. The only two that Oregon State can realistically catch are Oklahoma State and Southern Miss and would need help to catch Oklahoma State (and a non-rainout to catch Southern Miss). Oregon State better start hoping that Portland really moves the needle on Tuesday, because very little went right today around the Beavs. |
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Post by 56chevy on May 13, 2023 21:36:08 GMT -8
We win this series and we are into top 15 in all polls and have a chance to finish 2nd outright in Pac 12. That's the resume that has the committee reach down the RPI rankings and name us as hosts....I hope.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 13, 2023 23:18:36 GMT -8
We win this series and we are into top 15 in all polls and have a chance to finish 2nd outright in Pac 12. That's the resume that has the committee reach down the RPI rankings and name us as hosts....I hope. I love the optimism! It's still looking like more of a finish second in the Pac-12; Pac-12 Championship Game appearance; or, more probably, both to see a Corvallis Regional, though. Oregon State is second in line for a West Coast Regional. The team with the lowest RPI West of Lubbock, who was awarded a Regional was Cal State Fullerton in 2015 with an RPI of 25. 2012 Oregon had the best resume of teams specifically not chosen, because of a low RPI, and they were forced to travel with an RPI of 27. I could see the Committee staring long and hard at a Corvallis Regional, if the Beavs finished second in the Pac-12 and had an RPI of say 26. 28 is probably too low, though, unless there is a Pac-12 Tournament Championship Game to go along with 28. That might make up for a very lackluster nonconference SOS. A Championship would be even better, but I think that the Championship occurs after the Regional Hosts are doled out. That is what happened last year. Oregon State and Stanford were announced as Regional Hosts and then finished up the Championship Game. Oregon State needs to have an RPI of 26 or better or be in the Pac-12 Championship Game, so the issue is still in doubt, when host spots are doled out. |
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Post by Judge Smails on May 14, 2023 5:49:48 GMT -8
We win this series and we are into top 15 in all polls and have a chance to finish 2nd outright in Pac 12. That's the resume that has the committee reach down the RPI rankings and name us as hosts....I hope. I love the optimism! It's still looking like more of a finish second in the Pac-12; Pac-12 Championship Game appearance; or, more probably, both to see a Corvallis Regional, though. Oregon State is second in line for a West Coast Regional. The team with the lowest RPI West of Lubbock, who was awarded a Regional was Cal State Fullerton in 2015 with an RPI of 25. 2012 Oregon had the best resume of teams specifically not chosen, because of a low RPI, and they were forced to travel with an RPI of 27. I could see the Committee staring long and hard at a Corvallis Regional, if the Beavs finished second in the Pac-12 and had an RPI of say 26. 28 is probably too low, though, unless there is a Pac-12 Tournament Championship Game to go along with 28. That might make up for a very lackluster nonconference SOS. A Championship would be even better, but I think that the Championship occurs after the Regional Hosts are doled out. That is what happened last year. Oregon State and Stanford were announced as Regional Hosts and then finished up the Championship Game. Oregon State needs to have an RPI of 26 or better or be in the Pac-12 Championship Game, so the issue is still in doubt, when host spots are doled out. You and RPI need to get a room. |
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Post by ricke71 on May 14, 2023 16:07:32 GMT -8
For the committee, it all might come down to something as basic as: should there be, amongst the 16, more than ONE West Coast host?
Beavs are (currently) in a strong #2 position as a potential West Coast host.
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cake
Sophomore
Posts: 1,598 
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Post by cake on May 14, 2023 16:36:26 GMT -8
For the committee, it all might come down to something as basic as: should there be, amongst the 16, more than ONE West Coast host? Beavs are (currently) in a strong #2 position as a potential West Coast host. I agree. And despite what RPI maximalists say, RPI isn't everything. We're 9th in ELO! I still think we can host, maybe somewhere in the 10-12 range. I'd also guess whatever happens in the pac tourney won't really matter. They'll already have their minds made up by then. |
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Post by rgeorge on May 14, 2023 17:09:22 GMT -8
For the committee, it all might come down to something as basic as: should there be, amongst the 16, more than ONE West Coast host? Beavs are (currently) in a strong #2 position as a potential West Coast host. I'd love to agree but the record breakdown just doesn't show that. The Pac12 will only get 2 hosts if OSU (maybe UW or Oregon??) wins the Pac12 tourney, then Furd will also host. NC will matter. For example if you go by RPI vs Quad, the Pac12 has very few 1-25 games, let alone wins. Furd 0-0 UW 1-2 OSU 0-3 (17 of 36 W's vs 101+)* Ore 2-1 ASU 0-5 UCLA 2-4 USC 2-3-1 Zona 2-4 Cal 2-4 WSU 0-0 Utah 0-3 Skip Furd, the other top 15 in RPI average 15 games vs top 25 RPI teams. All have significantly better NC SOS. Only LSU is close, but +40 "ish". RPI isn't automatic, but the host bids come before the Pac12 championship game and OSU can't really gain too much ground in overall RPI. As it sits there will be slim pickens for the last host spots in my opinion. ACC 5-6... with 5 top 15 RPI, 6 top 22 teams; SEC 6,7,8... with 7 top 15, 9 top 22 teams; Pac12 1,2... with 1 top 15 team; Coastal #13 Indiana St #15 Dallas Baptist #16 UConn #17 Campbell #18 ECarolina #20 These types of teams all have significantly better NC SOS, typically played more top 25 RPI teams. Depending on conference tournaments, 1-2 will prob host?? The committee could easily justify the SEC & ACC getting 12-13 hosts based on RPI, NC SOS, Quad and RPI top rated games. I'm pretty sure if another team with OSU's current record/ schedule/etc was selected to host over an OSU team in the running to host there'dbe some squawking in here 😉 But we'll see... *if OSU wins out over 1/2 of the win total is vs teams with RPI over 101. And NC SOS will prob be in the 240 range. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 14, 2023 17:53:40 GMT -8
For the committee, it all might come down to something as basic as: should there be, amongst the 16, more than ONE West Coast host? Beavs are (currently) in a strong #2 position as a potential West Coast host. I'd love to agree but the record breakdown just doesn't show that. The Pac12 will only get 2 hosts if OSU (maybe UW or Oregon??) wins the Pac12 tourney, then Furd will also host. NC will matter. For example if you go by RPI vs Quad, the Pac12 has very few 1-25 games, let alone wins. Furd 0-0 UW 1-2 OSU 0-3 (17 of 36 W's vs 101+)* Ore 2-1 ASU 0-5 UCLA 2-4 USC 2-3-1 Zona 2-4 Cal 2-4 WSU 0-0 Utah 0-3 Skip Furd, the other top 15 in RPI average 15 games vs top 25 RPI teams. All have significantly better NC SOS. Only LSU is close, but +40 "ish". RPI isn't automatic, but the host bids come before the Pac12 championship game and OSU can't really gain too much ground in overall RPI. As it sits there will be slim pickens for the last host spots in my opinion. ACC 5-6... with 5 top 15 RPI, 6 top 22 teams; SEC 6,7,8... with 7 top 15, 9 top 22 teams; Pac12 1,2... with 1 top 15 team; Coastal #13 Indiana St #15 Dallas Baptist #16 UConn #17 Campbell #18 ECarolina #20 These types of teams all have significantly better NC SOS, typically played more top 25 RPI teams. Depending on conference tournaments, 1-2 will prob host?? The committee could easily justify the SEC & ACC getting 12-13 hosts based on RPI, NC SOS, Quad and RPI top rated games. I'm pretty sure if another team with OSU's current record/ schedule/etc was selected to host over an OSU team in the running to host there'dbe some squawking in here 😉 But we'll see... *if OSU wins out over 1/2 of the win total is vs teams with RPI over 101. And NC SOS will prob be in the 240 range. If Arizona and USC win their midweek games, they are going to put up some monster RPI numbers, because they have not played each other yet. And everyone in the Pac-12 is going to benefit from that. One or the other and possibly both can probably get into the top 25 in RPI and Oregon State swept both. Oregon State's nonconference SOS should improve to about 170ish with games against Portland and Western Carolina. The two teams, on average, are better than most of the teams that the Beavers already played, which is just sad. And the games in the Pac-12 Tournament will also count as nonconference games, which should further boost the nonconference SOS. You have a great rundown, though. |
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Post by tamatrix on May 14, 2023 21:59:06 GMT -8
How about this for our chances...haha. From D1Baseball site but from ESPN broadcast...
On another note, Ferrin said during the broadcast that when he talked to new NCAA Selection Committee chairman John Cohen – the former Mississippi State head coach – Cohen admitted, “I just don’t get to see any west coast baseball games. I don’t know anything about them.” Annnnnnnnd THAT is the big problem with the Selection Committee.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 14, 2023 22:50:53 GMT -8
How about this for our chances...haha. From D1Baseball site but from ESPN broadcast... On another note, Ferrin said during the broadcast that when he talked to new NCAA Selection Committee chairman John Cohen – the former Mississippi State head coach – Cohen admitted, “I just don’t get to see any west coast baseball games. I don’t know anything about them.” Annnnnnnnd THAT is the big problem with the Selection Committee. Three of the 10 members are out West, though. Mark Harlan, Utah's AD, chairs the West. The other two members out West are Bill McGillis, San Diego's AD, and Nate Pine, Air Force's AD. Two of the coaches assisting the three West Region members of note are Donny Harrel, Seattle's head coach, and Mark Wasikowski, Oregon's head coach. I think that Oregon State is going to get a fair shake here, unless Wasikowski just torches us. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 14, 2023 23:13:30 GMT -8
How about this for our chances...haha. From D1Baseball site but from ESPN broadcast... On another note, Ferrin said during the broadcast that when he talked to new NCAA Selection Committee chairman John Cohen – the former Mississippi State head coach – Cohen admitted, “I just don’t get to see any west coast baseball games. I don’t know anything about them.” Annnnnnnnd THAT is the big problem with the Selection Committee. Three of the 10 members are out West, though. Mark Harlan, Utah's AD, chairs the West. The other two members out West are Bill McGillis, San Diego's AD, and Nate Pine, Air Force's AD. Two of the coaches assisting the three West Region members of note are Donny Harrel, Seattle's head coach, and Mark Wasikowski, Oregon's head coach. I think that Oregon State is going to get a fair shake here, unless Wasikowski just torches us. I should add that Harrel actually was an assistant coach at Oregon State in 2003 and 2004. RPI of 26 or better. Let's go! |
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Post by ricke71 on May 15, 2023 10:37:06 GMT -8
During May, prospects for Regional Host can turn in a very short period of time.
Perfect example being a university less than 50 miles to the south. As May began, D-1 Baseball had them on the 'inside track' to be a host. They had just won 3 straight PAC-12 series (including Stanford). Then May 2, in a non-conference game, the Beavs put the first nail in their coffin. That started a 6 out of 7 game losing spell for tsdtr. Those 13 days saw their chance to host sink to somewhere between 0.00% and 0.01% (my opinion).
Over the next 10 days, if the Beavs win all 4 games this week (against RPI 118 & 200)....and then start off in Scottsdale with a couple of wins it would constitute an 8-game winning steak (and 16 of 18), obviously strengthening their hosting credentials. If they have a couple loses between 5/16 and 5/25 - nope.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on May 15, 2023 14:45:12 GMT -8
AFA AD Nate Pine is an OSU graduate and former Beaver wrestler.
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