Regional host possibility...?

Western U.S. question is interesting.

"College Baseball Bracketology" (on twitter, Ben Upton "College Baseball’s favorite gambler") just released a prediction that had Stanford as a  #6, and that being the only western team of the 16 host locations....well, Stillwater OK (the 'other' OSU - current RPI 24) is in there too, as #14.

D1 BB releases their latest projection tomorrow (Wednesday)

How long has it been since only 1 team from the west  was selected as a host?  I'm sure some historians on here have the answer at their fingertips. 

 

Boston College, Kentucky, and Vandy would be three difficult hosts to defeat at their places.  To be in Boston College's Regional and then play the Nashville Regional winner.  That sort of sucks.  Oregon State needs to keep winning to get a Corvallis Regional.

Unless OSU runs thru, wins both the Pac12 tourney and sweeps UCLA I'm not seeing a NC SOS of 250-60+ being a host. Last selection committee really used the NC to make some tough decisions. Plus, I just don't see this current team as one of the 16 best in the country deserving to host.

Top 16/hosting has little to do with random 1-to-1 comparisons. There are auto bids that will get between 6-9 of the 16 hosting spots depending on certain tourney results. The SEC will get their auto bid plus 3,4, ? more hosts. The ACC will get multiple hosts.

There might be only 3-4 spots left for hosts. In the past Q1 wins weren't as important as NC. As not all teams are created equal in their ability to schedule/travel. If this year's committee is the same as last, NC will matter.

OSU has the stadium, the rep, the attendance all in their favor. But, if OSU doesn't get to the Pac12 tourney title game with 40+ wins they don't host.

Be careful of what you ask for. A regional host is good for the program with exposure and cool that more beaver fans get to attend and all that. However, barely getting a host gets you a 16th seed. Guess who the 16th seed gets to play next provided they get through the regional? Thats right, numero uno. With a goal of getting to Omaha, I would think the easier route for a team that is in the Beavs current posistion (a high 2 seed) could be to be a 2 seed in a 12-14 seeded regional. Winning that you would be paired with a 3 or 4 natioanl seed.

Note: currently D1's field of 64 projection has us a 2 seed in a 14 seed regional paired with a 3 seed super.

This is a great point.

But Oregon State won National Championships through the Corvallis Super Regional in consecutive seasons by having a powerhouse lose in their own Regional.

In 2006, Oregon State barely got a Regional host spot and were awarded what would now effectively be a #14-seed.  The Corvallis Regional was paired with the Austin Regional with #3 overall Texas, the defending National Champions.

Stanford and NC State combined to eliminate Texas, and then Stanford eliminated NC State to set up a Corvallis Super Regional with Stanford.

In 2007, Oregon State barely got a spot in the Tournament, being sent to Charlottesville with effective #16-seed Virginia.  The Charlottesville Regional was paired with the Nashville Regional and #1 overall Vandy.

Oregon State got a day's reprieve, because of Tropical Storm Barry, and won three straight to come out of the losers' bracket and play the winner of the Nashville Regional.  In the Nashville Regional, Michigan blew eighth inning leads against Vandytwice before coming back to win in the ninth on Saturday and on a 10th-inning homer against David Price (on two days' rest) in the Championship Game on Monday.  Michigan's stadium was under construction, so the Wolverines could not host, allowing Oregon State to host the Corvallis Super Regional.

And on the other hand, Oregon State was basically given a #11 overall seed in 2011.  The Corvallis Regional was paired with the Nashville Regional and #6 overall Vandy  Vandy was a regular season SEC Co-Champion but lost out on tiebreakers to both Florida and South Carolina.  Vandy lost the SEC Championship Game to Florida.  Oregon State made it through the Corvallis Regional but were mowed down by #6 overall Vandy 11-1 and 9-3.  Vandy would drop two two-run games to Florida, who lost in the Championship Series 2-1 in 11 and 5-2 against South Carolina.  Always beware the #6-seed SEC Regular Season Champion.

Times that Oregon State has won a regional as a two-seed: never.  The Beavs were given a two-seed in 2012, 2015, and 2021. 

In 2012, despite being one of the first teams left out of a regional, Oregon State was sent to Baton Rouge against #7 overall LSU.  (There were three Texas Regionals, but the two-seeds in those Regionals were either Arkansas or a Texas team.  Baton Rouge was the next-closest regional, so Oregon State was sent there.)  LSU won the first game 7-1.  In the Sunday Night Game, Taylor Starr stupidly got the start and gave up three earned runs in a third of an inning.  Scott Shultz came on to replace Starr and pitched eight masterful innings only allowing one unearned run, while Tyler Smith, Michael Conforto, Ryan Barnes, Ryan Gorton, and John Tommasini combined for five runs on Ryan Eades to put Oregon State up 5-4.  Instead of putting in masterful closer Tony Bryant for the gimme win, Schultz pitched into the ninth and gave up the tying run.  With the game no longer a save situation, Dylan Davis was foolishly brought in to relieve Schultz.   Davis walked Austin Nola, JaCoby Jones doubled, and Davis brought Nola home on a wild pitch before Bryant was belatedly brought in and quickly out.  Matt Boyd cleaned up the mess without allowing another run.  In a save situation, Nick Goody came in for LSU and struck out the side.  And the Tigers are still laughing.

In 2015, Oregon State was the two-seed in the Dallas Regional.  Virginia Commonwealth upset Dallas Baptist, which should have paved Oregon State's way to the Coral Gables Super Regional against #5 overall Miami.  Instead, Rasmussen pitched his second-worst game in a Beaver uniform, and Oregon State lost the next two.

In 2021, Oregon State was given the two-seed in the Fort Worth Regional with #6 overall TCU.  The Frogs had a checked-out head coach and were paper tigers.  Oregon State foolishly threw Kevin Abel over Cooper Hjerpe, who put Oregon State into a hole.  The hole was not insurmountable, but Will Frisch came on to make it a crater, 6-1 in the fifth.  Ryan Ober homered in the fifth to pull within four.  Greg Fuchs hit a three-run shot in the sixth to pull within one.  The Beavs had two runners in scoring position with one out in the eighth, but Ober lined out, and Army grounded out to the mound.  Oregon State won the next three with a memorable 3-2 win over TCU with Greg Street behind the plate and an even more memorable 5-4 win on Garret Forrester's walkoff homer.  The Beavs looked like they would advance to a potential Eugene Super Regional (Corvallis was ineligible to host because of the COVID-19 Pandemic), up 5-0 in the sixth.  Every Beaver in the lineup had either a run or an RBI in the first three innings, except, oddly, for Wade Meckler.  Dallas Baptist put one of their best relievers, Zane Russell, in.  Russell came in with the bases juiced with two outs in third but only Army to score on a wild pitch.  Russell loaded 'em up with two outs in the fifth, but Justin Boyd lined out to short to end the threat.  Salgado gave up a two-run shot to Wrobleski in the sixth.  Nathan Burns walked three of the five batters that he faced.  Joey Mundt came on with the bases juiced and two outs, and Andrew Benefield hit a grand slam on Mundt's first pitch.  6-5 Dallas Baptist.   Mundt hit the next two batters, so Hjerpe came on on one day's rest (as opposed to the two that he should have had, if he started game one).  Hjerpe struck out the first batter in the eighth but gave up a single to Andres Sosa, and River Town hit a two-run shot to chase Hjerpe.  Mully came on in his final appearance and was great.  Claunch fouled out to right.  Forrester drew a walk.  Froemke came on to strike out.  Ober singled to put runners on the corner and to chase Peyton Sherlin.  Dallas Baptist brought in Dominic Hamel on two days' rest, and Hamel got Army ground out to short to end the threat.

The Beavs were given a one-seed in 2005, 2006, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022.  And Oregon State won seven of those nine Corvallis Regionals.  Of those, the Beavs hosted a Super Regional in 2005, 2006, 2013, 2017, 2018, and 2022.  (The only year that Oregon State did not host a Corvallis Super Regional after winning a Corvallis Regional was 2011.)  And Oregon State won five of those six Corvallis Super Regionals.

The key to Oregon State's postseason success has been in hosting Super Regionals.  It is far easier for the Beavs to host a Super Regional, if they previously host a Regional.

Yep,  and the hosting in 2007 was only due to the Michigan AD having no confidence in his baseball team to beat Vandy.  Big thanks to him for starting construction that early.