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Post by rgeorge on May 2, 2023 14:13:04 GMT -8
Who stated anything about RPI? And, by which metric is the Pac12 off to its best start in 30 years? I watch games, not just OSU. I look at multiple factors. The Pac12 has ONE team with a winning Q1 record. It has (3) teams in the top 32 in SOS... Oregon @16, Zona @27, Furd @32. UCLA is 35, ASU 42, Cal 44, OSU 58, SC 60, Utah 64, UW 68, WSU 104. Take out the Pac12 games the NC SOS is pathetic. Oregon is by far the best @33. OSU @259, I think only WSU (279) is worse right now. NC SOS will be looked at as always. When half your slate is vs a weak schedule it matters. You went to RPI SOS immediately, so I though that is what you were going for? The Pac-12 is off to its best start in 25 years in wins and losses. The conference has its best aggregate record in more than 25 years. Median Pac-12 RPI was 74 last year and is 52 this year. Eight teams are better than last year's Pac-12 median RPI. You have a lot less spread on teams. They are more clustered. The conference is stronger, but the top teams are weaker, as a result. You can knock SOS, but the wins and losses are there. The Eight Pac-12 teams at the top have just beaten the crap out of one another. Oregon State's nonconference SOS is very bad. But it will take a jump tonight with the Oregon game. 1/20th of the Beavers' nonconference slate will be Oregon at that point. Oregon State's median opponent is Wazzu at RPI 75. I suppose that you might mean the 90+ RPI teams. But you probably are referring to the bottom third of Oregon State's schedule The RPI 160+ waste of time games against Seattle, Cal Poly, New Mexico, Nevada, Minnesota, and Coppin State are a huge drag on RPI. And Seattle isn't terrible. The bottom 12 games against everyone else are, though. The fact that there are three losses in those 12 games is awful. You can fill up your schedule with bums, but you have to beat 'em. Mickey Goldmill knew that in Rocky III. My OP you replied to did not mention either RPI or SOS? |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 2, 2023 15:15:41 GMT -8
Regional hosts are at he whim of a selection committee who at times seems to ignore obvious qualifications, but overall the Pac12 seems to not fare as well as some pundits predict. My guess is that OSU will have to be at least 9-3 (with no loss to WC at the end) and be in the tourney title game to be in the mix. With (31) auto bids and most not really in contention for a Top 16 hosting gig, the Pac12 will get at least (2) hosts. But, it may be just two. The last (10) postseasons for the Pac12: 2022 5 teams/ 2 hosts/ 2 Supers/ 1 CWS.... 15-13 postseason record (#5 by %) 2021 6 teams/ 3 hosts/ 1 Super/ 2 CWS.... 19-14 postseason record (#4) 2020 2019 5 teams/ 3 hosts/ 1 Super/ 0 CWS.... 10-12 postseason record (#5) 2018 4 teams/ 1 host/ 1 Super/ 2 CWS.... 20-9 postseason record (#1) 2017 4 teams/ 2 hosts/ 1 Super/ 1 CWS.... 10-8 postseason record (#3) 2016 4 teams/ 0 hosts/ 0 Super/ 1 CWS.... 15-10 postseason record (#2) 2015 6 teams/ 1 host/ 0 Super/ 0 CWS.... 10-12 postseason record (#9) 2014 5 teams/ 1 host/ 0 Super/ 0 CWS.... 12-11 postseason record (#6) 2013 4 teams/ 3 hosts/ 1 Super/ 2 CWS.... 22-7 postseason record (#1) 2012 5 teams/ 4 hosts/ 3 Supers/ 2 CWS.... 25-8 postseason record (#1) In the last 10 postseasons the Pac12 has never had less than 4, or more than 6 teams invited. No matter the expert predictions it is a pretty safe bet to say the Pac12 will get 5 with 2 hosts... +/-1. One host goes to tourney title and the other , if different, will probably go to the regular season winner?? 2022 Oregon State and Stanford were hosts. Stanford had an RPI of 3. Oregon had the next-best RPI of 28 and was shipped off to Louisville.
2021
Arizona, Stanford, and Oregon were hosts. Oregon had an RPI of 15. UCLA had the next-best RPI of 20. With three Pac-12 hosts already, the Bruins were shipped off to Lubbock.
2019
UCLA, Stanford, and Oregon State were hosts. Stanford had an RPI of 9. Oregon State had an RPI of 22 and hosted. California had an RPI of 30 and did not.
2018
Contrary to what it said above, two teams hosted: Oregon State and Stanford. Oregon State had an RPI of 7 and hosted. UCLA had an RPI of 23 and finished fourth and did not host.
2017
Oregon State and Stanford were hosts. Stanford had an RPI of 7. Long Beach State had an RPI of 13 and soaked up the third host spot. Arizona had an RPI of 23 and finished fourth and did not host.
2016
Arizona finished with an RPI of 21 and in second place and totally should have hosted. But they were jobbed, because Utah won the Pac-12 regular season title. The Wildcats came out of the losers' bracket to win the Lafayette Regional. Arizona then won two one-run games in Starkville and split the first two games at Omaha, came out of the losers' bracket, won the first game in the Championship Series, and then Razorbacked it thereafter, losing the final two to Coastal Carolina. It should be noted that before 2018, Pac-12 teams (stupidly) routinely played on Sunday after regional host spots were made. So, Arizona's final win against Hawai'i did not count toward their potential regional selection. The Committee was very stupid and lazy in 2016.
2015
UCLA had an RPI of 1 and hosted. UC Santa Barbara and Cal State Fullerton hosted. Arizona State had the second-highest RPI among Pac-12 teams at 28.
2014
Oregon State had an RPI of 15 and hosted. Cal Poly had an RPI of 21 and also hosted. Washington had an RPI of 22 and should have hosted but did not, getting sent to a very difficult Oxford Regional instead. Washington's final win over UCLA did not count, because it came after regional hosts were announced. The Huskies likely would have hosted had the series started a day earlier. Stupid Pac-12.
2013
Oregon State, Oregon, and UCLA hosted. UCLA had an RPI of 14. Arizona State had an RPI of 24 but finished fourth and did not host.
2012
UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, and Stanford hosted. Stanford had the lowest RPI of the four at 12. Oregon State's RPI of 27 was not good enough to host.
The Committee will select up to three West Coast teams with an RPI of 24 or better. RPI is king, when doling out host spots. Oregon and Stanford probably host, if the season ended today, and Oregon State probably travels.
But I can see Oregon State jumping maybe six or so spots, depending on how today's games go. Or falling 10 spots, if things go completely sideways. Things are very much still in flux. Big game tonight! |
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Post by rgeorge on May 2, 2023 16:52:40 GMT -8
Tonight is prob not as near as important as the "low 5"... UP x2, WCar x3. None, zip, zero, nada of those can be a loss.
Throw in Utah x3, 8 of the last 12 are potential RPI killers.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 2, 2023 21:46:42 GMT -8
Regional hosts are at he whim of a selection committee who at times seems to ignore obvious qualifications, but overall the Pac12 seems to not fare as well as some pundits predict. My guess is that OSU will have to be at least 9-3 (with no loss to WC at the end) and be in the tourney title game to be in the mix. With (31) auto bids and most not really in contention for a Top 16 hosting gig, the Pac12 will get at least (2) hosts. But, it may be just two. The last (10) postseasons for the Pac12: 2022 5 teams/ 2 hosts/ 2 Supers/ 1 CWS.... 15-13 postseason record (#5 by %) 2021 6 teams/ 3 hosts/ 1 Super/ 2 CWS.... 19-14 postseason record (#4) 2020 2019 5 teams/ 3 hosts/ 1 Super/ 0 CWS.... 10-12 postseason record (#5) 2018 4 teams/ 1 host/ 1 Super/ 2 CWS.... 20-9 postseason record (#1) 2017 4 teams/ 2 hosts/ 1 Super/ 1 CWS.... 10-8 postseason record (#3) 2016 4 teams/ 0 hosts/ 0 Super/ 1 CWS.... 15-10 postseason record (#2) 2015 6 teams/ 1 host/ 0 Super/ 0 CWS.... 10-12 postseason record (#9) 2014 5 teams/ 1 host/ 0 Super/ 0 CWS.... 12-11 postseason record (#6) 2013 4 teams/ 3 hosts/ 1 Super/ 2 CWS.... 22-7 postseason record (#1) 2012 5 teams/ 4 hosts/ 3 Supers/ 2 CWS.... 25-8 postseason record (#1) In the last 10 postseasons the Pac12 has never had less than 4, or more than 6 teams invited. No matter the expert predictions it is a pretty safe bet to say the Pac12 will get 5 with 2 hosts... +/-1. One host goes to tourney title and the other , if different, will probably go to the regular season winner?? 2022 Oregon State and Stanford were hosts. Stanford had an RPI of 3. Oregon had the next-best RPI of 28 and was shipped off to Louisville.
2021
Arizona, Stanford, and Oregon were hosts. Oregon had an RPI of 15. UCLA had the next-best RPI of 20. With three Pac-12 hosts already, the Bruins were shipped off to Lubbock.
2019
UCLA, Stanford, and Oregon State were hosts. Stanford had an RPI of 9. Oregon State had an RPI of 22 and hosted. California had an RPI of 30 and did not.
2018
Contrary to what it said above, two teams hosted: Oregon State and Stanford. Oregon State had an RPI of 7 and hosted. UCLA had an RPI of 23 and finished fourth and did not host.
2017
Oregon State and Stanford were hosts. Stanford had an RPI of 7. Long Beach State had an RPI of 13 and soaked up the third host spot. Arizona had an RPI of 23 and finished fourth and did not host.
2016
Arizona finished with an RPI of 21 and in second place and totally should have hosted. But they were jobbed, because Utah won the Pac-12 regular season title. The Wildcats came out of the losers' bracket to win the Lafayette Regional. Arizona then won two one-run games in Starkville and split the first two games at Omaha, came out of the losers' bracket, won the first game in the Championship Series, and then Razorbacked it thereafter, losing the final two to Coastal Carolina. It should be noted that before 2018, Pac-12 teams (stupidly) routinely played on Sunday after regional host spots were made. So, Arizona's final win against Hawai'i did not count toward their potential regional selection. The Committee was very stupid and lazy in 2016.
2015
UCLA had an RPI of 1 and hosted. UC Santa Barbara and Cal State Fullerton hosted. Arizona State had the second-highest RPI among Pac-12 teams at 28.
2014
Oregon State had an RPI of 15 and hosted. Cal Poly had an RPI of 21 and also hosted. Washington had an RPI of 22 and should have hosted but did not, getting sent to a very difficult Oxford Regional instead. Washington's final win over UCLA did not count, because it came after regional hosts were announced. The Huskies likely would have hosted had the series started a day earlier. Stupid Pac-12.
2013
Oregon State, Oregon, and UCLA hosted. UCLA had an RPI of 14. Arizona State had an RPI of 24 but finished fourth and did not host.
2012
UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, and Stanford hosted. Stanford had the lowest RPI of the four at 12. Oregon State's RPI of 27 was not good enough to host.
The Committee will select up to three West Coast teams with an RPI of 24 or better. RPI is king, when doling out host spots. Oregon and Stanford probably host, if the season ended today, and Oregon State probably travels.
But I can see Oregon State jumping maybe six or so spots, depending on how today's games go. Or falling 10 spots, if things go completely sideways. Things are very much still in flux. Big game tonight!New Mexico, Oregon State, Washington, and Washington State all won! But Arizona, California, Cal Poly, UC Santa Barbara, and USC all lost. What could have been a great boost to RPI turned out to be pretty mediocre. The team above Oregon State and the team below Oregon State are all very close. Wins by Coppin State and USC could move Oregon State up a spot. Losses could move Oregon State down a spot. A split likely leaves Oregon State, where they are. The good news, though, is that Washington, the median Pac-12 team, moved up to 50 in RPI. That gives Oregon State a 6-7 record against top 50 RPI teams, which is very important, when doling out host spots. |
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Post by 56chevy on May 2, 2023 21:58:45 GMT -8
Looks like we have to run the table except for the UCLA series in which we can drop one game and still host a regional.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 2, 2023 22:16:47 GMT -8
Looks like we have to run the table except for the UCLA series in which we can drop one game and still host a regional. 11-1 with the loss at Jackie Robinson would put Oregon State in line to host a Corvallis Regional with a non-disastrous Pac-12 Tournament. A loss to Portland in Hillsboro would be the second-best loss. Losses at Goss would be bad and would require a better showing in the Pac-12 Tournament. |
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Post by oldbeav on May 3, 2023 16:22:31 GMT -8
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Post by chinmusic on May 4, 2023 17:31:56 GMT -8
A quote from D1 Baseball's Aaron Fitt on May 4th.
"The Beavers, meanwhile, made a big jump over the last week by sweeping Arizona, in between a midweek win at Grand Canyon and a home midweek win against Oregon. Oregon State is up to No. 25 in the RPI with a solid 14-10 record in conference, and it is now 3-1 against the Ducks this year, which could wind up being a tie-breaker if those two clubs are vying for one host spot (although our field was constructed before Tuesday’s game between the two). But our concern with Oregon State is centered around its RPI, which could drop due to home series remaining vs. Utah (18-24-1) and Western Carolina (17-26). The RPI Needs Report says the Beavs must win out to finish inside the top 16, and must win nine of their last 11 just to stay in the top 32. In all likelihood, they’ll finish in the 30s, outside of hosting range."
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 5, 2023 8:31:08 GMT -8
That wazzu series loss, being swept by Furd, and blowing two leads at ASU....oh what could've been.
I saw D1 had us as a two seed at Arkansas regional......that'd be kinda fun
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Post by rgeorge on May 5, 2023 10:09:27 GMT -8
That wazzu series loss, being swept by Furd, and blowing two leads at ASU....oh what could've been. I saw D1 had us as a two seed at Arkansas regional......that'd be kinda fun No... just no it would not be!! Being around their fans in a "mixed" environment of the CWS was bad enough. Between the Miss St and Arkie "necks" it was a effing zoo of every Walmart stereotype with the matching intelligence quotient and nonstop mouths. Would rather go back to LSU... and that is saying something!! |
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Post by tamatrix on May 5, 2023 12:15:28 GMT -8
Some confidence in Eric Sorenson's weekly preview on D1....
THIS WEEK’S EIGHT FOR OMAHA
If the season ended today, these are the eight teams that vendors would be hauling arse to try and get their logos and names on as much merchandise and drivel that they could in four days time.
— LSU
— Clemson
— Oregon
— Miami
— Vanderbilt
— Wake Forest
— Oregon State
– West Virginia
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Post by rgeorge on May 5, 2023 13:26:27 GMT -8
Some confidence in Eric Sorenson's weekly preview on D1.... THIS WEEK’S EIGHT FOR OMAHA If the season ended today, these are the eight teams that vendors would be hauling arse to try and get their logos and names on as much merchandise and drivel that they could in four days time. — LSU — Clemson — Oregon — Miami — Vanderbilt — Wake Forest — Oregon State – West Virginia Eric's been drinking! Over/under on that list? I'd say 3... |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 5, 2023 13:45:13 GMT -8
Some confidence in Eric Sorenson's weekly preview on D1.... THIS WEEK’S EIGHT FOR OMAHA If the season ended today, these are the eight teams that vendors would be hauling arse to try and get their logos and names on as much merchandise and drivel that they could in four days time. — LSU — Clemson — Oregon — Miami — Vanderbilt — Wake Forest — Oregon State – West Virginia Didn't Eric see the sign? You can't buy your way to Omaha |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 5, 2023 13:47:37 GMT -8
That wazzu series loss, being swept by Furd, and blowing two leads at ASU....oh what could've been. I saw D1 had us as a two seed at Arkansas regional......that'd be kinda fun No... just no it would not be!! Being around their fans in a "mixed" environment of the CWS was bad enough. Between the Miss St and Arkie "necks" it was a effing zoo of every Walmart stereotype with the matching intelligence quotient and nonstop mouths. Would rather go back to LSU... and that is saying something!! Well it'd be fun if we went down there and won. I have to disagree on the Miss St fans. I thought they were great. Had several good conversations with their fans out and about in '18......Saw worst behavior from LSU fans in '17.....drunken idiots. Did you know that ole Miss is miss st's hole? Miss St is a land grant school, just like us. They have a similar curricula......ole Miss is the a-hole rich school |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 5, 2023 14:20:41 GMT -8
That wazzu series loss, being swept by Furd, and blowing two leads at ASU....oh what could've been. I saw D1 had us as a two seed at Arkansas regional......that'd be kinda fun What part of that looks like fun? I've been to a Regional at Baum. It was wretched. Humidity and daily storms with 99% Arkansas fans? Oh joy! As for your first post, if you flip a single loss into a win, Oregon State would have an RPI of about 17 and would be in the catbird's seat for a Regional Host spot. Turn another loss into a win would put the Beavs at about 14. Oregon State would have an RPI of about 8 if you flip two more beyond that. |
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