|
|
Post by 56chevy on Apr 30, 2023 16:43:47 GMT -8
Not to state the obvious here but...and not to get way ahead of ourselves...however we play so much better at home than on the road. Do we have a path to get to top 16 status and as such, host a regional? Looks to me like winning eight out of next nine would put is in solid contention until we play the series against Western Carolina the last weekend and we will move down and out even with a sweep.
|
|
|
|
Post by Bodhisattva on Apr 30, 2023 16:54:52 GMT -8
It’s possible. You need to sweep Utah and win series at UCLA. You also need UW, Arizona, and USC to have at least 2 of those teams get into the top 50 of RPI. You also probably need to make final in Pac-12 tourney.
|
|
|
|
Post by Bodhisattva on Apr 30, 2023 16:58:28 GMT -8
It’s possible. You need to sweep Utah and win series at UCLA. You also need UW, Arizona, and USC to have at least 2 of those teams get into the top 50 of RPI. You also probably need to make final in Pac-12 tourney. To be honest, if you get another win on Tuesday with just UW getting into top 50, plus a good tourney run might do it too. If you win the tourney, then it opens up more room for error. |
|
|
|
Post by chinmusic on Apr 30, 2023 21:21:23 GMT -8
Only two of the three baseball website's latest projections have us making a regional - both down south in SEC country.
Hosting would be a huge achievement and delight for our players, coaches and fans.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaver1989 on May 1, 2023 2:36:56 GMT -8
Only two of the three baseball website's latest projections have us making a regional - both down south in SEC country. Hosting would be a huge achievement and delight for our players, coaches and fans. Last one I saw had us heading down south to face "our buddies" from Baton Rouge. |
|
|
|
Post by beaverbeliever on May 1, 2023 8:10:04 GMT -8
We're up to #27 in RPI now - but realize with Utah and Western Carolina ahead, that can drag it down (can't blow any of those games). D1 Baseball's latest top 25 this morning has us at #15. www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2023/rpi-live |
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 1, 2023 22:24:35 GMT -8
To move into position to be a Regional Host before the Pac-12 Tournament, Oregon State probably must go at least 10-2 to finish off the regular season and would probably need a decent Pac-12 Tournament.
Short of there, Oregon State would need a heck of a Pac-12 Tournament.
If the season ended today:
1. Stanford
2. Arizona State
3. Oregon
4. Oregon State
5. Washington
6. UCLA
7. USC
8. Arizona
9. Wazzu
If the season ended today, Oregon State would be in the same pool as Oregon and USC, which would be perfect if the Beavers continue to hover in that 4-6 seed range.
|
|
|
|
Post by rgeorge on May 1, 2023 22:33:29 GMT -8
To move into position to be a Regional Host before the Pac-12 Tournament, Oregon State probably must go at least 10-2 to finish off the regular season and would probably need a decent Pac-12 Tournament. Short of there, Oregon State would need a heck of a Pac-12 Tournament. If the season ended today: 1. Stanford
2. Arizona State
3. Oregon
4. Oregon State
5. Washington
6. UCLA
7. USC
8. Arizona
9. Wazzu
If the season ended today, Oregon State would be in the same pool as Oregon and USC, which would be perfect if the Beavers continue to hover in that 4-6 seed range.
The Pac12 began being a bit overrated in my opinion. As I mentioned much earlier, I'm not seeing any Pac12 team being in Omaha this season. I don't see the Pac12 getting more than 3 regional hosts. Probably just 2. But, a lot will depend on other auto berths and conference tourneys. But it is baseball... and the NCAA selection process! |
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 1, 2023 22:39:53 GMT -8
To move into position to be a Regional Host before the Pac-12 Tournament, Oregon State probably must go at least 10-2 to finish off the regular season and would probably need a decent Pac-12 Tournament. Short of there, Oregon State would need a heck of a Pac-12 Tournament. If the season ended today: 1. Stanford
2. Arizona State
3. Oregon
4. Oregon State
5. Washington
6. UCLA
7. USC
8. Arizona
9. Wazzu
If the season ended today, Oregon State would be in the same pool as Oregon and USC, which would be perfect if the Beavers continue to hover in that 4-6 seed range.
The Pac12 began being a bit overrated in my opinion. As I mentioned much earlier, I'm not seeing any Pac12 team being in Omaha this season. I don't see the Pac12 getting more than 3 regional hosts. Probably just 2. But, a lot will depend on other auto berths and conference tourneys. But it is baseball... and the NCAA selection process! The Pac-12 is off to its best start in what 30 years? Oregon and Oregon State are tied for the 23rd best record in all of NCAA. RPI is stupid. Do not estimate that anything involved with RPI is anything that approaches what is "real." Ken Massey has three Pac-12 teams easily hosting: Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford. |
|
|
|
Post by rgeorge on May 1, 2023 23:53:45 GMT -8
The Pac12 began being a bit overrated in my opinion. As I mentioned much earlier, I'm not seeing any Pac12 team being in Omaha this season. I don't see the Pac12 getting more than 3 regional hosts. Probably just 2. But, a lot will depend on other auto berths and conference tourneys. But it is baseball... and the NCAA selection process! The Pac-12 is off to its best start in what 30 years? Oregon and Oregon State are tied for the 23rd best record in all of NCAA. RPI is stupid. Do not estimate that anything involved with RPI is anything that approaches what is "real." Ken Massey has three Pac-12 teams easily hosting: Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford. Who stated anything about RPI? And, by which metric is the Pac12 off to its best start in 30 years? I watch games, not just OSU. I look at multiple factors. The Pac12 has ONE team with a winning Q1 record. It has (3) teams in the top 32 in SOS... Oregon @16, Zona @27, Furd @32. UCLA is 35, ASU 42, Cal 44, OSU 58, SC 60, Utah 64, UW 68, WSU 104. Take out the Pac12 games the NC SOS is pathetic. Oregon is by far the best @33. OSU @259, I think only WSU (279) is worse right now. NC SOS will be looked at as always. When half your slate is vs a weak schedule it matters. |
|
|
|
Post by chinmusic on May 2, 2023 8:29:11 GMT -8
D1 Baseball's Kendall Rogers has a take.
Oregon State
"Mitch Canham’s Beavers are moving closer to the regional hosting mix. The Beavers are right there with fellow Pac-12 foe Arizona State in the mix, and they’re coming off a week that included a midweek win over Grand Canyon and a weekend series sweep over Arizona. With those results, the Beavs improved their RPI to 27, which is a six-spot increase from last week. OSU’s non-conference SOS is a crutch at 240, while they’re just 4-6 against RPI Top 50. But again, if the Beavs finish the regular season with a top three Pac-12 finish and a Top 23-24 RPI, it might be tough to deny. Of course, it also depends on what other host contenders accomplish between now and then"
|
|
|
|
Post by rgeorge on May 2, 2023 10:02:36 GMT -8
Regional hosts are at he whim of a selection committee who at times seems to ignore obvious qualifications, but overall the Pac12 seems to not fare as well as some pundits predict. My guess is that OSU will have to be at least 9-3 (with no loss to WC at the end) and be in the tourney title game to be in the mix. With (31) auto bids and most not really in contention for a Top 16 hosting gig, the Pac12 will get at least (2) hosts. But, it may be just two.
The last (10) postseasons for the Pac12:
2022 5 teams/ 2 hosts/ 2 Supers/ 1 CWS.... 15-13 postseason record (#5 by %)
2021 6 teams/ 3 hosts/ 1 Super/ 2 CWS.... 19-14 postseason record (#4)
2020
2019 5 teams/ 3 hosts/ 1 Super/ 0 CWS.... 10-12 postseason record (#5)
2018 4 teams/ 1 host/ 1 Super/ 2 CWS.... 20-9 postseason record (#1)
2017 4 teams/ 2 hosts/ 1 Super/ 1 CWS.... 10-8 postseason record (#3)
2016 4 teams/ 0 hosts/ 0 Super/ 1 CWS.... 15-10 postseason record (#2)
2015 6 teams/ 1 host/ 0 Super/ 0 CWS.... 10-12 postseason record (#9)
2014 5 teams/ 1 host/ 0 Super/ 0 CWS.... 12-11 postseason record (#6)
2013 4 teams/ 3 hosts/ 1 Super/ 2 CWS.... 22-7 postseason record (#1)
2012 5 teams/ 4 hosts/ 3 Supers/ 2 CWS.... 25-8 postseason record (#1)
In the last 10 postseasons the Pac12 has never had less than 4, or more than 6 teams invited. No matter the expert predictions it is a pretty safe bet to say the Pac12 will get 5 with 2 hosts... +/-1. One host goes to tourney title and the other , if different, will probably go to the regular season winner??
|
|
|
|
Post by flyfishinbeav on May 2, 2023 10:37:34 GMT -8
So essentially our poor conference start has put us in a position to require a very strong finish.....finish reg season strong, and go into tourney strong......that's a recipe for Omaha, or at least a run to a super.
All I know is, the current Beavs are not a club anyone wants to see at their regional......pitching and defense......and the bats are pretty dam hot right now.
|
|
|
|
Post by irimi on May 2, 2023 10:54:59 GMT -8
Just keep winning, baby! Let the cards fall where they may!
|
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 2, 2023 14:08:13 GMT -8
The Pac-12 is off to its best start in what 30 years? Oregon and Oregon State are tied for the 23rd best record in all of NCAA. RPI is stupid. Do not estimate that anything involved with RPI is anything that approaches what is "real." Ken Massey has three Pac-12 teams easily hosting: Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford. Who stated anything about RPI? And, by which metric is the Pac12 off to its best start in 30 years? I watch games, not just OSU. I look at multiple factors. The Pac12 has ONE team with a winning Q1 record. It has (3) teams in the top 32 in SOS... Oregon @16, Zona @27, Furd @32. UCLA is 35, ASU 42, Cal 44, OSU 58, SC 60, Utah 64, UW 68, WSU 104. Take out the Pac12 games the NC SOS is pathetic. Oregon is by far the best @33. OSU @259, I think only WSU (279) is worse right now. NC SOS will be looked at as always. When half your slate is vs a weak schedule it matters. You went to RPI SOS immediately, so I though that is what you were going for? The Pac-12 is off to its best start in 25 years in wins and losses. The conference has its best aggregate record in more than 25 years. Median Pac-12 RPI was 74 last year and is 52 this year. Eight teams are better than last year's Pac-12 median RPI. You have a lot less spread on teams. They are more clustered. The conference is stronger, but the top teams are weaker, as a result. You can knock SOS, but the wins and losses are there. The Eight Pac-12 teams at the top have just beaten the crap out of one another. Oregon State's nonconference SOS is very bad. But it will take a jump tonight with the Oregon game. 1/20th of the Beavers' nonconference slate will be Oregon at that point. Oregon State's median opponent is Wazzu at RPI 75. I suppose that you might mean the 90+ RPI teams. But you probably are referring to the bottom third of Oregon State's schedule The RPI 160+ waste of time games against Seattle, Cal Poly, New Mexico, Nevada, Minnesota, and Coppin State are a huge drag on RPI. And Seattle isn't terrible. The bottom 12 games against everyone else are, though. The fact that there are three losses in those 12 games is awful. You can fill up your schedule with bums, but you have to beat 'em. Mickey Goldmill knew that in Rocky III. |
|
