Look for the portal to starting heating up some

I just learned that within then UC system, transferring is not even allowed - with some exceptions. I’m sure they’d find exceptions for a high profile athlete, but for most students, it’s largely not a option. That is, going from say Cal to UCLA is generally very difficult.

Additionally, you often lose credits in transfers, so it’s expensive. Of course, if you aren’t paying for tuition, you don’t care as much about that.

Just some examples of how this plays out differently for athletes vs general students.

If 76% 'persist', that means they're still enrolled in college, any college, right? So 24% dropped out of college altogether, yes? So we should be comparing to the 1,996,000 who are still in a college the next year, and, of those, 1,742,000 are at the same college. That's 87.3% of those who are still in college.

And I note that the 2.6 million have 'enrolled in college as a first time undergraduate student'. Doesn't say enrolled in a 4 year college, and, based on the total number (2,700,000 out of roughly 4,000,000 born 18 years prior), I take that to mean this includes community colleges and junior colleges. Some significant proportion of the 12.7% who transferred has to have come from this sector.

To make the math easy, there are roughly 350 D1 women's basketball programs, so a maximum number of 5,250 players at 15 per team. Since many, like OSU, don't carry the full number, let's call it 5,000. Of these, one would expect 25% to have used up their eligibility, leaving 3,750 who could be 'retained' at their present school. I think the number in the portal is about 1,050.

That's 28% overall versus the PAC 12's 37% versus the (well less than) 12.7% of the student population overall. I would consider 28% (greater than 1 in 4) an extremely alarming number. On average, 3 players from EVERY women's team in America is telling their fan base that they're taking their basketball and leaving, like the girl at Ohio State I keep referencing.

This is not a big deal?

You ask for info/data. It is ALL over the web. This is just ONE of many examples. Some will go into great detail. But, you can spout all the numbers and comparisons you want. Students transferring been happening since students began going to college. Many "finish" at a different college/university. Student/athletes are no different. The current numbers are prob a bit inflated because of the extra Covid year available to some and the newness of the portal experience. Plus add in the NIL factor were you can pay an athlete to show up on campus it prob has elevated #s even more.

Student athletes are simply not getting "punished" (the first time) for something other students were able to do at will. And, it is a process that will be with us as long as there are kids in college. You may not like it, I didn't ask you to, but it's not going away.

If you really want to biotch take on the basically uncontrolled world of NIL and things like the new "dating site" OSU just opted into:

app.opendorse.com/shop/oregonstate-beavers

Go thru and pick you favorite athlete by sex, sport, etc and start making deals starting at $30 a pop. You thin can see if you "deal" will meet whatever is meant by "compliance". As under the NCAA site compliance is pretty vague and only bans $$ for performance incentives. LIke giving money to have a student stay at your school/team isn't performance based?! Heck you can even make "deals", pay, and it doesn't commit the student/athlete, they can still transfer!

Now this is a BIG deal.

You're are right... apples/oranges you go thru and still discuss it?! Drafted is not part of a transfer discussion, but the majority of college baseball players do not get drafted. YET many baseball players do transfer, and some do so to be developed so they can indeed be drafted. I believe OSU's current roster (as listed) has 11 transfers of some kind. Some are huge contributors. So OSU should not accept them as they are somehow betraying their previous school?

Greta, TJ, Kennedy are making decisions they think will benefit them. Maybe right , maybe wrong in the end. But, it is their decision, it's one within the rules, and they are the ones to deal with whatever consequences/outcomes. It's called "life".

I was responding to this part of your post:

"Let me put it another way. If 37% left again next year, and the year after that, how many does that leave playing their senior year at the same place they played their first year?" (my bold)

"Doesn't that bother you? Do you think there will be any fan interest left at that point?" (my bold)

I think my post was responsive to the question you posed.

Lots of possibilities, including UTSA is supposedly a school that is very well funded. Like OSU they just announced an NIL collaboration:


www.mysanantonio.com/sports/article/UTSA-athletes-NIL-partnership-17088085.php

Different company, same idea. I wonder how much these 3rd parties are making for running these NIL middleman sites? And, what companies are running them? Seems that they are now the ones making $$ off student athletes as schools are accused of doing? Not much different than an agent being your middle man, except now there is an open website to gather deals (however big or small), and the school pays for the middle man vs the athlete paying the agent.

Ahhh, it seems that watching games on TV where they can be recorded to fit one's schedule, and maybe attending "real"college sporting event may be on the future?? Linfield, GFox, WOU anyone?? LOL

The thing there though is that these transfers are no longer naive - the grass may be greener, but they also know things will change after signing.

Given how slow things are going compared to last year (it seems to me anyway), I wonder if both sides are doing much more due diligence. Obviously visits are much more possible, but things seem to be going very differently this time around. I wonder if things will flip, with last year the HS prospects got squeezed by transfers - the opposite might happen this year where programs generally are more focused on building the younger base. That would seem odd given the free agency aspect of the younger talent, but there’s also lots of kids staying. I’m sure there’s profiles emerging in what types of kids stay rooted, and what programs can do to make that more likely to happen.