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Post by treasurevalleybeav on Mar 2, 2022 12:16:06 GMT -8
Part of me worries that first team practically WAS a 20+ loss team if Payton wasn't there. I only bring that up because that was a pretty unique situation driven primarily from his dad going here and CR already landing him. And we know that caliber of a player is very rare and not the type to expect any time soon for a lot of teams.
So I find it a fair criticism/concern to wonder how much Tinkle can accomplish moving forward here w/ no more coach's sons and no more Payton sons
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Post by rgeorge on Mar 2, 2022 12:48:56 GMT -8
To be fair... Year 1 without any sons on the team they went 17-14, had I think just 1 loss at home and were an outside shot at NCAAs until fading some at the end of the year. The issue was they couldn't win a road game which ultimately kept them out of any NIT/NCAA conversation. If there is an argument for keeping WT and any team with a coach's son doesn't count, that season is the best example to point to. A group of leftovers plus 5 walk-ons and GP2 pulled that season out of their ass under most of the same coaching staff (Rupp, Thompson, and WT at least).
I wouldn't call myself a WT "defender", but I also wouldn't consider myself chomping at the bit to see him out of here ASAP. I appreciate the good things he's done here, because it's the best basketball played here in my lifetime and the best in over 30 years. I also am extremely frustrated and disappointed in two of the worst seasons in program history. As you've said, WT's record speaks for itself, it is what it is and isn't changing, but until this year the 5-27 season was a statistical outlier, and even with two seasons like that those two seasons still skew his overall record heavily one direction compared to the other 6. More often than not a WT team throughout his entire coaching career is competitive year in and year out at worst.
If I was the AD, I would not be showing WT the door after this season. If it does happen I would understand and would not necessarily be upset about it, but IMO he has done enough (just barely) to earn another year. If next year is at least a return to .500 ball I would most likely be ready to see WT go just as much as some of the others on here barring an unusually strong class coming in for the following year we want to keep together.
You beat me to it. I pretty much agree with you on all counts. Year 1 there were no coach's kids, they inherited only 6 or 7 scholarship players, none of which had averaged over 4.0 points a game, and they were picked last in the league by everyone yet they finished top 7 and turned down a CBI invite. The previous coach padded his overall record with CBI wins, that turn down likely cost the Beavers 2-3 future invites and a lot of potential wins. I'm not saying we should judge Tinkle on year one, but he has proved he can well surpass expectations without any coach's kids on the roster at least once. .500 ball or better is not out of reach this next season. That should not be the ultimate goal, the goal should be NCAA/NIT tournaments most years, but so far he's only 1 season away from the Final 8, something which has only happened once before in the last 55 years. He should be on the hot seat right now and maybe/probably canned IF the team doesn't show dramatic improvement next season. 50+ losses in just 2 seasons will affect his overall record for years, even if he gets to the NCAA tournament for several years in a row. I expect the same guys to bring up his overall record no matter how much success he has here if he's retained. He's exceeded the pre-season predicted expectations in 5 of the 7 seasons that actually finished, in the other year he was probably the game against uo away from a tournament invite. On the whole it has been the best basketball here since Gary Payton graduated back in spring of 1990. IF it drags on and there's another sub-.500 season next year I'd probably be jumping on the make a change band wagon, but for now I can understand retaining him. Anymore excuses? ALL the seasons count. All the recruiting/lack thereof counts. WT's overall record is what it is... "50+ losses in just 2 seasons will affect his overall record for years"... really? But, they should not count toward his ineptness, though season #1 with an inherited recruit, GPII, shows how good he can be? Hmmm... "The previous coach padded his overall record with CBI wins, that turn down likely cost the Beavers 2-3 future invites and a lot of potential wins... in the other year he was probably the game against uo away from a tournament invite." Really? Inside info? Or just made up BS to try to support a point of "not really being a defender"? And, what does, "exceeded the pre-season predicted expectations..." have anything to do with his lack of success? It's a meaningless preseason poll that should somehow equate into his success? But, wait, the other side of the coin, he bested preseason predictions because they were typically not respected and placed pretty low?? At any rate we're having some non-defenders truly getting down in the gutter for supportive info in year 8. "IF it drags on and there's another sub-.500 season next year..." so does that mean the inferior NC schedule and overall record? Or the Pac12 record? Cuz I'm sure a 7-13 type Pac12 record coupled with a weak NC schedule OSU could possible squeak out 16-16 (nope, no way!) 116-134 (.464) 53-93 (.363) Simple, plain facts... without even looking into WT's recruiting prowess. FYI... Pac12 W's the last (8) seasons / last (3): Just where all of us fans want to be, bottom 4th and trending down. 44 / 22 WSU 49 / 15 Cal 53 / 18 OSU 59 / 18 UW 67 / 26 ASU 69 / 27 Furd 78 / 35 Col 78 / 19 Utah 82 / 40 SC 91 / 39 UCLA 101 / 38 UO 103 / 37 UA
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Post by rgeorge on Mar 2, 2022 13:08:10 GMT -8
Curious... CR's 6 years:
WSU 37 OSU 39 USC 39 Utah 42* First 3 seasons in a different conference Colo 46* First 3 seasons in a different conference Furd 49 ASU 52 Ore 53 UW 68 Cal 69 UCLA 70 Zona 72
If the NCAA invites are your only criteria WT is a success. But, looking the entire coaching metric of success in Pac12 play OSU has been basically stagnant over both careers. Both quality men in my opinion, one a far better recruiter as it was all on his "own". Yet one is seen on this board as superior.
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Post by fridaynightlights on Mar 2, 2022 13:19:45 GMT -8
One thing this thread shows is that whoever the next coach may be, they will have the advantage of only having to match or slightly exceed the very low expectations of the fan base in order to satisfy them.
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Post by irimi on Mar 2, 2022 15:27:36 GMT -8
One thing this thread shows is that whoever the next coach may be, they will have the advantage of only having to match or slightly exceed the very low expectations of the fan base in order to satisfy them. That's not true. You have a poor memory. People have been calling for Tinkle to lose his job for a long time...go back and look. The situation in front of us is unique. Hell, the last guy to take the Beavers to the dance and to the Elite Eight has the court named for him. Granted, that's an unfair comparison because Miller was legend. But it just goes to show that what Tinkle did accomplish was pretty amazing. The coach that replaces Tinkle better have things working from the start.
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Post by spudbeaver on Mar 2, 2022 18:22:39 GMT -8
One thing this thread shows is that whoever the next coach may be, they will have the advantage of only having to match or slightly exceed the very low expectations of the fan base in order to satisfy them. That's not true. You have a poor memory. People have been calling for Tinkle to lose his job for a long time...go back and look. The situation in front of us is unique. Hell, the last guy to take the Beavers to the dance and to the Elite Eight has the court named for him. Granted, that's an unfair comparison because Miller was legend. But it just goes to show that what Tinkle did accomplish was pretty amazing. The coach that replaces Tinkle better have things working from the start. Um, mix in a few Pac 10 Championships. The tournament isn't the only thing, although they're doing their best to make it so.
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Post by OSUprof on Mar 2, 2022 20:15:25 GMT -8
The previous coach padded his overall record with CBI wins CBI tourney wins were all non-conference. Here are the overall records in winning percentage:
Robinson 0.477
Tinkle 0.464
So far your padding comment holds up.
But then there is this...
Conference winning percentage:
Robinson 0.361 Tinkle 0.363
In conference play Tinkle (winning 36.3 games per 100 conference games) only has the tiniest of margins over Robinson and for all practical purposes the two are tied for conference play. The CBI had no effect on conference records.
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Post by nabeav on Mar 2, 2022 20:24:08 GMT -8
Right, but for Tinkle to have that kind of winning percentage with two 1-17 seasons means the other six were pretty good, right? He has an uncanny ability to throw up a huge stinker every few years, but the overall product has been very competitive in conference.
The bad seasons happened. I’m not ignoring them. But stats without context aren’t very good at telling the story of what happened.
The body of work (and the circumstances of his contract) have earned him the right to try to fix it next year in my mind. If not, start thinking about making a change. Maybe the new football stadium will bring in extra revenue that makes a buyout more palatable.
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Post by OSUprof on Mar 2, 2022 20:47:54 GMT -8
Right, but for Tinkle to have that kind of winning percentage with two 1-17 seasons means the other six were pretty good, right? He has an uncanny ability to throw up a huge stinker every few years, but the overall product has been very competitive in conference. The bad seasons happened. I’m not ignoring them. But stats without context aren’t very good at telling the story of what happened. The body of work (and the circumstances of his contract) have earned him the right to try to fix it next year in my mind. If not, start thinking about making a change. Maybe the new football stadium will bring in extra revenue that makes a buyout more palatable. But here's what you're missing. He's a subpar coach in a competitive field and that's not easily seen in the numbers - you need to know the game to see these things. His players have poor basketball skills because he is not a developmental coach, and he cannot recruit the talented players that he needs outside of staff families. His x an o skills are pretty much average on a good day and without good players, you'll see more stinkers because better x and o coaches with the same talent will beat him. A better coach could do more with the players that we have on the roster right now - it would not be hard to top 3 wins but will need more talent to compete on a regular basis. He benefited from having a legacy in Gary Payton's son early on but when his roster has been depleted of talent he has had the worst two seasons in OSU history.
He's a nice guy and for a fan base that prides itself on doing things the right way and believes others cheat, he fits in for them. I get that. If you were casting for a university head basketball coach for a movie he fits the bill quite nicely. But this is reality and he doesn't have a script where he comes out on top.
The stinker years reveal his shortcomings as a coach - some can see them, others can't. That's OK we need all kinds of fans to buy tickets and build enthusiasm for the program in the upcoming rebuild. The hole will be deep and costly as fans did not buy in even following the Elite 8 run. The next coach will have to win them back and win games at the same time.
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Post by ag87 on Mar 2, 2022 21:53:54 GMT -8
I don't buy the fact that you "need to know the game" to see what's missing. It's makes it sound as if you know more about coaching basketball than say, grass seed science. Saying that, I don't know what to make about his time here at OSU. It certainly has had high highs and low lows. My gut says if you somehow perfectly ranked the 77 (I think) P6 coaches he would be somewhere in the lower half. I don't think he would be in the bottom 10. I'll throw out around #50. He is clearly a good man and a credit to Corvallis and the University and that goes a long ways. If he was 40-years-old, I'd think he would have additional upside but you can't make that argument now. As a guess, he will be let go after the 22-23 season. He will be here for longer if he turns the teams identity to shortening the game and playing defense with a greater passion. That team may win 8 or more conference games next season and surprise us all.
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Post by OSUprof on Mar 2, 2022 23:35:43 GMT -8
I don't buy the fact that you "need to know the game" to see what's missing. It's makes it sound as if you know more about coaching basketball than say, grass seed science. Saying that, I don't know what to make about his time here at OSU. It certainly has had high highs and low lows. My gut says if you somehow perfectly ranked the 77 (I think) P6 coaches he would be somewhere in the lower half. I don't think he would be in the bottom 10. I'll throw out around #50. He is clearly a good man and a credit to Corvallis and the University and that goes a long ways. If he was 40-years-old, I'd think he would have additional upside but you can't make that argument now. As a guess, he will be let go after the 22-23 season. He will be here for longer if he turns the teams identity to shortening the game and playing defense with a greater passion. That team may win 8 or more conference games next season and surprise us all. You don't have to be a coach to know and understand the game.
You're likely pretty good at sports betting by reading about your approach to this endeavor over the years. You're not a football coach but you study the game and the analytics, and as a result you have been successful. You are likely dispassionate and carefully observe patterns that give you good insight about the sport. What I do is no different and I keep emotion out of it. I save that for the game.
I can remember watching Pat Casey's early teams get killed by powerhouses in the southern part of the conference. But what did I see in those games? Casey's teams were well-schooled in the fundamentals of the game - they did all the little things right but they just lacked talent. You could say the same about most Mike Riley teams, win or lose. Can you say the same for Tinkle? But don't take my word for it - go back and look at the comments from fellow posters this season and in the 5-27 season. What did they say about the skills on display, win or lose? What are your own eyes telling you?
Frankly it would be a lot easier and cheaper for Beaver Nation if Wayne Tinkle became the coach that some believe he is? Right now is not too late. And I'm not so invested in being right to be unhappy about that result. I've got lots of recipes for crow.
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Post by fridaynightlights on Mar 3, 2022 7:23:07 GMT -8
One thing this thread shows is that whoever the next coach may be, they will have the advantage of only having to match or slightly exceed the very low expectations of the fan base in order to satisfy them. That's not true. You have a poor memory. People have been calling for Tinkle to lose his job for a long time...go back and look. The situation in front of us is unique. Hell, the last guy to take the Beavers to the dance and to the Elite Eight has the court named for him. Granted, that's an unfair comparison because Miller was legend. But it just goes to show that what Tinkle did accomplish was pretty amazing. The coach that replaces Tinkle better have things working from the start. Actually, I have a good memory. Some "people" have been calling for him to be fired for a long time, other "people" have not. What the percentage is of each group is speculative.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Mar 3, 2022 8:48:34 GMT -8
The previous coach padded his overall record with CBI wins CBI tourney wins were all non-conference. Here are the overall records in winning percentage:
Robinson 0.477
Tinkle 0.464
So far your padding comment holds up.
But then there is this...
Conference winning percentage:
Robinson 0.361 Tinkle 0.363
In conference play Tinkle (winning 36.3 games per 100 conference games) only has the tiniest of margins over Robinson and for all practical purposes the two are tied for conference play. The CBI had no effect on conference records.
I know the conference record thing, wasn’t referring to it. I will forever maintain the 1 and 17 record his third year is largely due to being left with no Robinson players at that point because Robinsons last couple years of recruits didn’t pan out. 17 losses in 1 season is a LOT when you typically lose 8-11. Robinson never had a .500 in conference season. This year’s losses are on Wayne. It’s very disappointing. Can I say it’s a trend? No. If he gets canned today, Tinkle leaves 6 players (7 if Hunt returns) with eligibility who averaged 4.5-13.4 points a game this season at this level. The top scoring player Robinson left managed just 4.0 points a game, one other 3.1 points a game. It can be argued the program will be left with more experience than was left for Tinkle his first season. Changes need to be made, but I cannot say Tinkle has a track record of consecutive losing seasons.
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Post by nabeav on Mar 3, 2022 8:53:01 GMT -8
I wish I could get the "Fire Tinkle" crowd to understand that the "don't fire Tinkle yet" crowd isn't arguing that he's a phenomenal coach, or that he needs a lifetime contract. He's a decent coach that has done a decent job here, with some really exciting teams and some really terrible teams. I don't think Tinkle finishes out his contract here, barring a multiple year stretch of NCAA tourney appearances which I don't think anyone sees coming, particularly now.
I just don't think it made sense to let him go last year, and I don't think it makes sense now. That's it.
But if you're going to continue to point out every single blemish and fault on his resume, then I'm going to continue to remind you that he's done some pretty damn good things here too.
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Post by spudbeaver on Mar 3, 2022 9:10:30 GMT -8
I wish I could get the "Fire Tinkle" crowd to understand that the "don't fire Tinkle yet" crowd isn't arguing that he's a phenomenal coach, or that he needs a lifetime contract. He's a decent coach that has done a decent job here, with some really exciting teams and some really terrible teams. I don't think Tinkle finishes out his contract here, barring a multiple year stretch of NCAA tourney appearances which I don't think anyone sees coming, particularly now. I just don't think it made sense to let him go last year, and I don't think it makes sense now. That's it. But if you're going to continue to point out every single blemish and fault on his resume, then I'm going to continue to remind you that he's done some pretty damn good things here too. ” I just don't think it made sense to let him go last year, and I don't think it makes sense now. That's it.” I don’t think there were many folks that advocated firing him after last season. That would have looked pretty bad! I think most of the irritation comes from giving him an extension at that time. Talk about a knee-jerk reaction! It was also unnecessary.
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