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Post by nabeav on Mar 1, 2022 13:37:28 GMT -8
I'm curious as to what you mean by "show me" year. What does the record have to be for him to show you? In my opinion his overall record and pac12 record a few games short of 8 years should have shown you enough it definitely has me. I think that's the difference - a lot of people were ready to fire him before the Elite 8 run. I wasn't. Rehashing things here, but: More .500 or better seasons than any other coach since Miller 3 seasons .500 or better in the Pac-12 - more than all other coaches since Miller combined Two NCAA tournament berths, including an Elite 8 run Made the tourney with two entirely distinct rosters (no overlap of any player) The 5-27 season was terrible, but the team immediately rebounded and was competitive in the conference for the next four years straight, culminating in an elite 8 run. The fact that 5-27 (if we're lucky) is happening again is certainly concerning, but is (in my mind) offset by the tournament berths. However, if we're losing to the Princetons and Samfords in the preseason next year, I don't know that I wait to see if the ship gets righted at that point. Again, there has been a knock on recruiting as if Tinkle somehow wasn't pulling in guys that *should* be coming to OSU. I don't think that's the case. Local talent has been avoiding Corvallis for a long time. Reichle and Eubanks weren't all world players, but they were the best talent in Oregon in their respective years, and he got them to stay home. Would've been nice to get Gregg or Bittle, but I know at least with Gregg it was a wrap as soon as Gonzaga offered. So he tried the transfer market, and brought in guys from Minnesota, Memphis, Maryland, a couple big juco gets.....I don't remember anyone being like "these guys suck, what the hell is going on?" Now, turns out most of them have been ineffective for a variety of reasons. Andela got hurt early. Marial ruled ineligible. Alatishe clearly playing through pain. Gianni took a break. Malone-Key only played 12 games. That's a lot of stuff, most of it outside of the coaches control. But again, the one freshman he brought in - Glenn Taylor Jr. - looks like he's got what it takes to be a key guy for the next few years. Really like the way he plays. So yeah, I'm wasn't ready to pull the trigger before the Elite 8 run, and I'm not ready yet. Definitely heading in that direction, and I'm not going to put up much of a complaint if a change is made, but I'm not there yet.
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Post by beaver94 on Mar 1, 2022 13:39:00 GMT -8
I can't answer that for Nabeav, but I think we can expect Tinkle back for next year. Is there a record that he could have next year that would get any of you to change your mind on keeping him? Say he manages, by some miracle, to have a winning record and .500 in Pac-12 games. Does that dissuade you from having the program take on the financial burden of letting him go, or do you keep him for another year? "Get any of you to change your mind". Your comment tells me you are still with Tinkle. Frankly, bluntly if there was any way to arrange a buyout in three weeks then he needs to go now or three weeks from now. I don't care what he does next year. I've seen enough after 8 years. By the way Tinkle has had one winning pac12 season and two 500 seasons. I'm not "with" Tinkle. If there was a way to arrange a buyout and they brought in a new coach I'd be fine with that. He's had two of the worst, but also two of the best, seasons in the last 40 years. His tenure has been a bit of an enigma for me. His overall record makes me think he isn't the coach to take OSU to the next level moving forward. I also understand he'll be back next year, unless a miracle happens. I was mostly just trying to have a conversation to see if there was anything next season that might change minds.
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Post by rgeorge on Mar 1, 2022 13:59:57 GMT -8
Maybe the best way to look forward is to look at nonsensical "correlations".
So, assuming no super star portal transfers. That we will lose 1-3 guys in addition to the Srs. And, the current signees, plus this season's results. I'm guessing OSU is picked 12th in next season's preseason poll.
Hence, OSU should finish 4th?!
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Mar 1, 2022 14:03:01 GMT -8
So Tinkle has only had three .500 or better league records in his 8 year here. For the what have you done for me lately crowd that would only be 2 of the last 4 years. Total number of .500 or better league records since 1993....THREE. So tell us how hiring someone new is going to easily fix this. Really? That's your argument? So, using that terrific logic, after 8 seasons why did we hire WT? He has had (2) "Jay John type" teams, but one could be worse! We're back to the who in the heck could OSU possibly hire that's better! My argument is we went 21 whole seasons prior to Tinkle's hire with ZERO .500 or better seasons and the guy I responded to is complaining about Tinkle only doing it 3 times. Serious basketball suckage began and became entrenched long before Tinkle arrived and he's done some pretty OK to good things here all things considered. He's also had some bad results. His teams' lack of direction on offense for basically all but the last half of last season is something to be seriously concerned about, and why it regressed so much after last season is another. Also concerning is the lack of defensive focus after years of decent to very good defensive efforts. Losing players like Washington and Tucker are kind of a concern, but the transfer situation these days is just nutty at most schools. On the other hand, imagine if our players had been healthy or eligible, this team would probably been more interesting with Andela, Marial and Li all contributing minutes underneath. There are plenty of things to discuss, but to imply Tinkle is crap because he's only had 3 .500 or better league records leaves out a lot of context, and considering over two decades of history would not be anything I'd point out as a negative.
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Post by rgeorge on Mar 1, 2022 14:05:32 GMT -8
Really? That's your argument? So, using that terrific logic, after 8 seasons why did we hire WT? He has had (2) "Jay John type" teams, but one could be worse! We're back to the who in the heck could OSU possibly hire that's better! My argument is we went 21 whole seasons prior to Tinkle's hire with ZERO .500 or better seasons and the guy I responded to is complaining about Tinkle only doing it 3 times. Serious basketball suckage began and became entrenched long before Tinkle arrived and he's done some pretty OK to good things here all things considered. He's also had some bad results. His teams' lack of direction on offense for basically all but the last half of last season is something to be seriously concerned about, and why it regressed so much after last season is another. Also concerning is the lack of defensive focus after years of decent to very good defensive efforts. Losing players like Washington and Tucker are kind of a concern, but the transfer situation these days is just nutty at most schools. On the other hand, imagine if our players had been healthy or eligible, this team would probably been more interesting with Andela, Marial and Li all contributing minutes underneath. There are plenty of things to discuss, but to imply Tinkle is crap because he's only had 3 .500 or better league records leaves out a lot of context, and considering over two decades of history would not be anything I'd point out as a negative. The past has zero correlation to what a new coach does. If so WT never goes dancing. Just a decent x's & o's guy that can recruit at a mid tier Pac12 level will be better.
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Post by Judge Smails on Mar 1, 2022 14:06:16 GMT -8
Maybe the best way to look forward is to look at nonsensical "correlations". So, assuming no super star portal transfers. That we will lose 1-3 guys in addition to the Srs. And, the current signees, plus this season's results. I'm guessing OSU is picked 12th in next season's preseason poll. Hence, OSU should finish 4th?! Exactly....we are not used to being picked anywhere higher than 10th, so look out next year!
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Post by Judge Smails on Mar 1, 2022 14:14:03 GMT -8
My argument is we went 21 whole seasons prior to Tinkle's hire with ZERO .500 or better seasons and the guy I responded to is complaining about Tinkle only doing it 3 times. Serious basketball suckage began and became entrenched long before Tinkle arrived and he's done some pretty OK to good things here all things considered. He's also had some bad results. His teams' lack of direction on offense for basically all but the last half of last season is something to be seriously concerned about, and why it regressed so much after last season is another. Also concerning is the lack of defensive focus after years of decent to very good defensive efforts. Losing players like Washington and Tucker are kind of a concern, but the transfer situation these days is just nutty at most schools. On the other hand, imagine if our players had been healthy or eligible, this team would probably been more interesting with Andela, Marial and Li all contributing minutes underneath. There are plenty of things to discuss, but to imply Tinkle is crap because he's only had 3 .500 or better league records leaves out a lot of context, and considering over two decades of history would not be anything I'd point out as a negative. The past has zero correlation to what a new coach does. If so WT never goes dancing. Just a decent x's & o's guy that can recruit at a mid tier Pac12 level will be better. I still think he is a decent x's and o's coach, but the recruiting is the big problem. It's also a problem when you bring in transfers that don't buy into the offense and bail out on the called plays and run their own stuff. You could especially see this at the beginning of the year when WT was constantly yanking guys for not running the plays. With a limited bench, he hasn't had that option lately. The defensive issues have more to do with who you have on the court. Lucas and Calloo don't play a lick of defense and Silva is so slow that teams just bring him out and get him on the pick and roll. We can't play much zone because Lucas and Calloo don't get out on shooters. Taylor and Davis are both decent defenders, but with 3 other guys on the court that don't play any D, it makes it very hard to stop anyone. I know better than expect any coach here to constantly bring in 4 and 5 star guys. It's not going to happen. But you do have to bring in solid players that are coachable and have the mindset to outwork more talented players. That is not currently the case with the exception of Davis and Taylor (I also still think Rand has some potential also, but not at the 5).
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Post by fridaynightlights on Mar 1, 2022 14:31:57 GMT -8
For the past 5 season before this year, one of the coaches' kids was the best player on the team and leading scorer. We have now entered the post coaches' kids portion of the WT era. To say that it is off to a rocky start is an understatement.
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Post by nabeav on Mar 1, 2022 14:57:36 GMT -8
So Tinkle has only had three .500 or better league records in his 8 year here. For the what have you done for me lately crowd that would only be 2 of the last 4 years. Total number of .500 or better league records since 1993....THREE. So tell us how hiring someone new is going to easily fix this. Really? That's your argument? So, using that terrific logic, after 8 seasons why did we hire WT? He has had (2) "Jay John type" teams, but one could be worse! We're back to the who in the heck could OSU possibly hire that's better! Look, the next coach could be great. The next coach could be Gary Andersen. Nothing's guaranteed. But we've tried a variety of styles of coaches: Jimmy Andersen was a longtime assistant, seen as a great recruiter, and knew the program better than anyone. Didn't work. Eddie Payne was a mid-major guy with NCAA tourney experience. Team went from real bad to real competitive, but wasn't enough and was gone. Ritchie McKay was a local (ish) guy with good success at two previous stops. Didn't work. AT ALL. Jay John was a long time assistant for one of the best coaches in Pac-12 history. Didn't work. Craig Robinson was....smart? Related to the president? Didn't work. I believe when Craig was hired, we offered the job to several coaches with more/better experience and were turned down. I believe Ben Howland was offered the job before Tinkle and turned it down, and Damon Stoudamire (who was my preference) was also talked to. Point is, we probably won't get our first or second choice. So yeah we could get someone better, but you're probably not going to know they're better right away. Utah certainly isn't having the success under Craig Smith they envisioned when they fired Larry K. Smith hadn't lost more than 9 games in each of the four previous seasons. On the flip side, Iowa State hired a guy away from UNLV who was having pretty middling success, and he's taken them from a 2 win season to a 20 win season in one year. So yes, we could do better. But history says we probably won't, and results from around the country suggest that it's certainly not guaranteed.
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Post by rgeorge on Mar 1, 2022 15:25:22 GMT -8
Really? That's your argument? So, using that terrific logic, after 8 seasons why did we hire WT? He has had (2) "Jay John type" teams, but one could be worse! We're back to the who in the heck could OSU possibly hire that's better! Look, the next coach could be great. The next coach could be Gary Andersen. Nothing's guaranteed. But we've tried a variety of styles of coaches: Jimmy Andersen was a longtime assistant, seen as a great recruiter, and knew the program better than anyone. Didn't work. Eddie Payne was a mid-major guy with NCAA tourney experience. Team went from real bad to real competitive, but wasn't enough and was gone. Ritchie McKay was a local (ish) guy with good success at two previous stops. Didn't work. AT ALL. Jay John was a long time assistant for one of the best coaches in Pac-12 history. Didn't work. Craig Robinson was....smart? Related to the president? Didn't work. I believe when Craig was hired, we offered the job to several coaches with more/better experience and were turned down. I believe Ben Howland was offered the job before Tinkle and turned it down, and Damon Stoudamire (who was my preference) was also talked to. Point is, we probably won't get our first or second choice. So yeah we could get someone better, but you're probably not going to know they're better right away. Utah certainly isn't having the success under Craig Smith they envisioned when they fired Larry K. Smith hadn't lost more than 9 games in each of the four previous seasons. On the flip side, Iowa State hired a guy away from UNLV who was having pretty middling success, and he's taken them from a 2 win season to a 20 win season in one year. So yes, we could do better. But history says we probably won't, and results from around the country suggest that it's certainly not guaranteed. I don't believe anyone said or asked for a "guarantee". But, we know what OSU has in WT. Without any of the sons (5-27, 3-2?) He can't, hasn't, nothings changed, recruit. Period. As for the can't do better, could be better could be worse thinking (is certainly not logic) it's pretty ironic. CR was let go and we supposedly found better. Yet WT should be kept around. Not for his coaching acumen, not for his recruiting, but because there is no guarantee?! Weird. I wonder how any downtrodden program ever gets righted? I'm guessing most biz models have it wrong. Keep all average to crap employees as there's no guarantee of finding better. Hmmmm. *Another item must never mention, of all the failed FB, BB hires, who did the hiring? Not a huge SB guy, nor really think his done poorly. But, I can "guarantee" OSU has had some extremely poor ADs ultimately tied to the extremely poor hires.
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Post by nabeav on Mar 1, 2022 15:56:35 GMT -8
Yes, we know what we have in Wayne Tinkle. Where you and I differ is that OSU is "downtrodden." This season, I would absolutely say yes we are. But over his tenure? No way.
That's the difference. I think Tinkle has (for the most part) done a good job here. Certainly not looking good right now, and I'm fine with making a change if it makes financial sense. But I don't believe it does right now, and that's why I'm willing to see how next year shapes up before making a decision.
I also hate the "this staff is nothing without the sons" angle. Two guys this staff have coached have made the NBA - neither of them are related to anyone on the staff. Wayne made several NCAA tournaments at Montana without any relatives. Ironically Tres never played in an NCAA Tournament game. Stevie started 5 games as a freshman. Ethan had the biggest impact on a tournament team of all three of them, and all he did was follow his brother, like the Tarvers and Schaftenaars and Benjamins and however many other brother combos we've seen at OSU....I guess you could throw in Gary and Brandon Payton as well.
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Post by treasurevalleybeav on Mar 1, 2022 20:51:24 GMT -8
I get that the coaches we hired before Tinkle were nothing special and clearly NOT the caliber we want moving forward. But I disagree w anyone who assumes that’s the only caliber we can get now. Sure there is hardly a “guarantee” they’ll be better. I just don’t like the assumption that we cannot get anyone better. The head coaching resumes of who we hired before Tinkle (post Miller) weren’t very much or very impressive if you literally combined all of the their “accomplishments.” If we aim higher maybe we can land someone good. After the elite 8 run people can no longer say no one can win here. Before that it was a legit concern I’m sure
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Post by fridaynightlights on Mar 1, 2022 22:38:04 GMT -8
Usually when a hiring decision is made, they tend to go with someone who is opposite of the last coach who just failed. WTs main failure has been in recruiting. I would expect and hope they bring in a youngish head coach and staff who are known as aggressive recruiters. Hopefully catch a rising star on the way up. It can be done. UP which has even a worse history then OSU (the Pilots lost 45 out of their past 46 conference games prior to this season) may have done it with Shantay Legans. You just have to be smart and hope you get lucky.
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Mar 1, 2022 23:06:44 GMT -8
Look, the next coach could be great. The next coach could be Gary Andersen. Nothing's guaranteed. But we've tried a variety of styles of coaches: Jimmy Andersen was a longtime assistant, seen as a great recruiter, and knew the program better than anyone. Didn't work. Eddie Payne was a mid-major guy with NCAA tourney experience. Team went from real bad to real competitive, but wasn't enough and was gone. Ritchie McKay was a local (ish) guy with good success at two previous stops. Didn't work. AT ALL. Jay John was a long time assistant for one of the best coaches in Pac-12 history. Didn't work. Craig Robinson was....smart? Related to the president? Didn't work. I believe when Craig was hired, we offered the job to several coaches with more/better experience and were turned down. I believe Ben Howland was offered the job before Tinkle and turned it down, and Damon Stoudamire (who was my preference) was also talked to. Point is, we probably won't get our first or second choice. So yeah we could get someone better, but you're probably not going to know they're better right away. Utah certainly isn't having the success under Craig Smith they envisioned when they fired Larry K. Smith hadn't lost more than 9 games in each of the four previous seasons. On the flip side, Iowa State hired a guy away from UNLV who was having pretty middling success, and he's taken them from a 2 win season to a 20 win season in one year. So yes, we could do better. But history says we probably won't, and results from around the country suggest that it's certainly not guaranteed. I don't believe anyone said or asked for a "guarantee". But, we know what OSU has in WT. Without any of the sons (5-27, 3-2?) He can't, hasn't, nothings changed, recruit. Period. As for the can't do better, could be better could be worse thinking (is certainly not logic) it's pretty ironic. CR was let go and we supposedly found better. Yet WT should be kept around. Not for his coaching acumen, not for his recruiting, but because there is no guarantee?! Weird. I wonder how any downtrodden program ever gets righted? I'm guessing most biz models have it wrong. Keep all average to crap employees as there's no guarantee of finding better. Hmmmm. *Another item must never mention, of all the failed FB, BB hires, who did the hiring? Not a huge SB guy, nor really think his done poorly. But, I can "guarantee" OSU has had some extremely poor ADs ultimately tied to the extremely poor hires. To be fair... Year 1 without any sons on the team they went 17-14, had I think just 1 loss at home and were an outside shot at NCAAs until fading some at the end of the year. The issue was they couldn't win a road game which ultimately kept them out of any NIT/NCAA conversation. If there is an argument for keeping WT and any team with a coach's son doesn't count, that season is the best example to point to. A group of leftovers plus 5 walk-ons and GP2 pulled that season out of their ass under most of the same coaching staff (Rupp, Thompson, and WT at least).
I wouldn't call myself a WT "defender", but I also wouldn't consider myself chomping at the bit to see him out of here ASAP. I appreciate the good things he's done here, because it's the best basketball played here in my lifetime and the best in over 30 years. I also am extremely frustrated and disappointed in two of the worst seasons in program history. As you've said, WT's record speaks for itself, it is what it is and isn't changing, but until this year the 5-27 season was a statistical outlier, and even with two seasons like that those two seasons still skew his overall record heavily one direction compared to the other 6. More often than not a WT team throughout his entire coaching career is competitive year in and year out at worst.
If I was the AD, I would not be showing WT the door after this season. If it does happen I would understand and would not necessarily be upset about it, but IMO he has done enough (just barely) to earn another year. If next year is at least a return to .500 ball I would most likely be ready to see WT go just as much as some of the others on here barring an unusually strong class coming in for the following year we want to keep together.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Mar 2, 2022 11:12:52 GMT -8
To be fair... Year 1 without any sons on the team they went 17-14, had I think just 1 loss at home and were an outside shot at NCAAs until fading some at the end of the year. The issue was they couldn't win a road game which ultimately kept them out of any NIT/NCAA conversation. If there is an argument for keeping WT and any team with a coach's son doesn't count, that season is the best example to point to. A group of leftovers plus 5 walk-ons and GP2 pulled that season out of their ass under most of the same coaching staff (Rupp, Thompson, and WT at least).
I wouldn't call myself a WT "defender", but I also wouldn't consider myself chomping at the bit to see him out of here ASAP. I appreciate the good things he's done here, because it's the best basketball played here in my lifetime and the best in over 30 years. I also am extremely frustrated and disappointed in two of the worst seasons in program history. As you've said, WT's record speaks for itself, it is what it is and isn't changing, but until this year the 5-27 season was a statistical outlier, and even with two seasons like that those two seasons still skew his overall record heavily one direction compared to the other 6. More often than not a WT team throughout his entire coaching career is competitive year in and year out at worst.
If I was the AD, I would not be showing WT the door after this season. If it does happen I would understand and would not necessarily be upset about it, but IMO he has done enough (just barely) to earn another year. If next year is at least a return to .500 ball I would most likely be ready to see WT go just as much as some of the others on here barring an unusually strong class coming in for the following year we want to keep together.
You beat me to it. I pretty much agree with you on all counts. Year 1 there were no coach's kids, they inherited only 6 or 7 scholarship players, none of which had averaged over 4.0 points a game, and they were picked last in the league by everyone yet they finished top 7 and turned down a CBI invite. The previous coach padded his overall record with CBI wins, that turn down likely cost the Beavers 2-3 future invites and a lot of potential wins. I'm not saying we should judge Tinkle on year one, but he has proved he can well surpass expectations without any coach's kids on the roster at least once. .500 ball or better is not out of reach this next season. That should not be the ultimate goal, the goal should be NCAA/NIT tournaments most years, but so far he's only 1 season away from the Final 8, something which has only happened once before in the last 55 years. He should be on the hot seat right now and maybe/probably canned IF the team doesn't show dramatic improvement next season. 50+ losses in just 2 seasons will affect his overall record for years, even if he gets to the NCAA tournament for several years in a row. I expect the same guys to bring up his overall record no matter how much success he has here if he's retained. He's exceeded the pre-season predicted expectations in 5 of the 7 seasons that actually finished, in the other year he was probably the game against uo away from a tournament invite. On the whole it has been the best basketball here since Gary Payton graduated back in spring of 1990. IF it drags on and there's another sub-.500 season next year I'd probably be jumping on the make a change band wagon, but for now I can understand retaining him.
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