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Post by fishwrapper on Apr 30, 2020 13:13:35 GMT -8
I'm not sure why schools would be liable for anything - if data says there's virtually zero chance for a college age, healthy person dying from the disease, wouldn't a "reasonable" person say it's OK for them to participate? I'm not a lawyer. So far, the data already show that there is an ACTUAL (as opposed to virtual) Non-Zero chance for a college-age, healthy person dying from COVID-19. Yes, they are small numbers, but they are not zero. And while I, too, am not a lawyer, they are people, too. |
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Post by bennyskid on Apr 30, 2020 14:59:43 GMT -8
Non-zero! That sounds like a lot!
Of course, statistically a campus the size of OSU's is going to see an average of 5 students each year die of various causes. (2 by accident, 1 by suicide, the rest by cancer, homicide, etc..) Based on the experience in NYC (which is much more densely packed than the OSU campus) the death rate for the 18-44 age group is under 15/100k, and of those, roughly 80% had underlying conditions. That translates to roughly ONE death on a campus the size of ours.
Which is, I admit, "Non-zero".
I have two kids in college right now - one at OSU. Here's what they say - if they don't open the campus this fall, both will take a year off. They are absolutely disgusted with the school-by-Zoom and will not repeat it. And they say their classmates are thinking the same thoughts.
So right now, every private school with an endowment less than $40 billion is having meetings - not to decide whether to open, but how to announce it without being lambasted by the media and having a faculty revolt. For a great many, it's "Open this fall or never open again." Public schools are having the same conversations with only slightly less urgency.
So far, Baylor, East Carolina, Elon, Gonzaga, Iowa, Iowa State, James Madison, Loyola Marymount, Marshall, MTSU, Montana State, NYU, Old Dominion, Radford, SMU, Alabama, Arizona, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah, Utah State, and Washington State have all stated that they plan to be open. With a critical mass like that, it's all-but impossible for any school to stay closed - they'll hemorrhage students if they do.
Odds are probably 50-50 that we will NEVER have a vaccine. Odds are nearly 100% that campus will be open this fall.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Apr 30, 2020 15:15:37 GMT -8
Oregon has announced it will open as well. I expect we will be following suit shortly.
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Post by zeroposter on Apr 30, 2020 16:02:46 GMT -8
Non-zero! That sounds like a lot! Of course, statistically a campus the size of OSU's is going to see an average of 5 students each year die of various causes. (2 by accident, 1 by suicide, the rest by cancer, homicide, etc..) Based on the experience in NYC (which is much more densely packed than the OSU campus) the death rate for the 18-44 age group is under 15/100k, and of those, roughly 80% had underlying conditions. That translates to roughly ONE death on a campus the size of ours. Which is, I admit, "Non-zero". I have two kids in college right now - one at OSU. Here's what they say - if they don't open the campus this fall, both will take a year off. They are absolutely disgusted with the school-by-Zoom and will not repeat it. And they say their classmates are thinking the same thoughts. So right now, every private school with an endowment less than $40 billion is having meetings - not to decide whether to open, but how to announce it without being lambasted by the media and having a faculty revolt. For a great many, it's "Open this fall or never open again." Public schools are having the same conversations with only slightly less urgency. So far, Baylor, East Carolina, Elon, Gonzaga, Iowa, Iowa State, James Madison, Loyola Marymount, Marshall, MTSU, Montana State, NYU, Old Dominion, Radford, SMU, Alabama, Arizona, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah, Utah State, and Washington State have all stated that they plan to be open. With a critical mass like that, it's all-but impossible for any school to stay closed - they'll hemorrhage students if they do. Odds are probably 50-50 that we will NEVER have a vaccine. Odds are nearly 100% that campus will be open this fall. I hope the students do return to campus, and I do have a lot of concern for faculty/staff/vulnerable. Hopefully, those safety concerns can be minimized. At some point us old farts have to accept that we are the really vulnerable group and take the actions necessary to minimize our own exposure. The athletic aspect is secondary to me, but we can't penalize younger people forever to protect my sorry ass. Jmho. |
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Post by beavershoopsfan on Apr 30, 2020 17:56:39 GMT -8
Non-zero! That sounds like a lot! Of course, statistically a campus the size of OSU's is going to see an average of 5 students each year die of various causes. (2 by accident, 1 by suicide, the rest by cancer, homicide, etc..) Based on the experience in NYC (which is much more densely packed than the OSU campus) the death rate for the 18-44 age group is under 15/100k, and of those, roughly 80% had underlying conditions. That translates to roughly ONE death on a campus the size of ours. Which is, I admit, "Non-zero". I have two kids in college right now - one at OSU. Here's what they say - if they don't open the campus this fall, both will take a year off. They are absolutely disgusted with the school-by-Zoom and will not repeat it. And they say their classmates are thinking the same thoughts. So right now, every private school with an endowment less than $40 billion is having meetings - not to decide whether to open, but how to announce it without being lambasted by the media and having a faculty revolt. For a great many, it's "Open this fall or never open again." Public schools are having the same conversations with only slightly less urgency. So far, Baylor, East Carolina, Elon, Gonzaga, Iowa, Iowa State, James Madison, Loyola Marymount, Marshall, MTSU, Montana State, NYU, Old Dominion, Radford, SMU, Alabama, Arizona, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah, Utah State, and Washington State have all stated that they plan to be open. With a critical mass like that, it's all-but impossible for any school to stay closed - they'll hemorrhage students if they do. Odds are probably 50-50 that we will NEVER have a vaccine. Odds are nearly 100% that campus will be open this fall. I agree that there is and will continue to be considerable financial pressure for colleges to have open campuses this fall. That has to be the desired path for all schools. Whether that path is reality is dependent on whether the death count from COVID-19 slows to an "acceptable" or tolerable level in the country. What is considered acceptable is what will be debated heavily between now and August. A daily death toll of 2k in this country will likely not prompt public opinion and college leadership to support opening campuses to students this fall. I think that a monthly death toll of 5k or less in the U.S. might lead reopening proponents to equate the loss of life to be similar in mortality to the annual flu. We all agree that we have to get back to business in this country as soon as possible, given the risk tolerance that our political and business leaders and workers will support. The continuing debate between the cautionists and the reopeners will linger as long as the COVID-19 death tally continues to increase at alarming levels. |
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Post by bennyskid on Apr 30, 2020 20:44:28 GMT -8
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Post by sparty on May 1, 2020 6:01:14 GMT -8
Non-zero! That sounds like a lot! Of course, statistically a campus the size of OSU's is going to see an average of 5 students each year die of various causes. (2 by accident, 1 by suicide, the rest by cancer, homicide, etc..) Based on the experience in NYC (which is much more densely packed than the OSU campus) the death rate for the 18-44 age group is under 15/100k, and of those, roughly 80% had underlying conditions. That translates to roughly ONE death on a campus the size of ours. Which is, I admit, "Non-zero". I have two kids in college right now - one at OSU. Here's what they say - if they don't open the campus this fall, both will take a year off. They are absolutely disgusted with the school-by-Zoom and will not repeat it. And they say their classmates are thinking the same thoughts.So right now, every private school with an endowment less than $40 billion is having meetings - not to decide whether to open, but how to announce it without being lambasted by the media and having a faculty revolt. For a great many, it's "Open this fall or never open again." Public schools are having the same conversations with only slightly less urgency. So far, Baylor, East Carolina, Elon, Gonzaga, Iowa, Iowa State, James Madison, Loyola Marymount, Marshall, MTSU, Montana State, NYU, Old Dominion, Radford, SMU, Alabama, Arizona, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah, Utah State, and Washington State have all stated that they plan to be open. With a critical mass like that, it's all-but impossible for any school to stay closed - they'll hemorrhage students if they do. Odds are probably 50-50 that we will NEVER have a vaccine. Odds are nearly 100% that campus will be open this fall. I agree that there is and will continue to be considerable financial pressure for colleges to have open campuses this fall. That has to be the desired path for all schools. Whether that path is reality is dependent on whether the death count from COVID-19 slows to an "acceptable" or tolerable level in the country. What is considered acceptable is what will be debated heavily between now and August. A daily death toll of 2k in this country will likely not prompt public opinion and college leadership to support opening campuses to students this fall. I think that a monthly death toll of 5k or less in the U.S. might lead reopening proponents to equate the loss of life to be similar in mortality to the annual flu. We all agree that we have to get back to business in this country as soon as possible, given the risk tolerance that our political and business leaders and workers will support. The continuing debate between the cautionists and the reopeners will linger as long as the COVID-19 death tally continues to increase at alarming levels. What you said I put in bold above. I have asked six different college students the same thing about the experience and they all said they would take fall and possibly winter off if the classes are on-line again. It sounded like a bad experience all around. |
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Post by beavershoopsfan on May 1, 2020 7:57:41 GMT -8
I probably spend too much time following the stats and trends. I am encouraged that the 2k per day rolling averages are beginning to trend lower, but the first link that you shared clearly states that COVID-related deaths are likely undercounted. Combine that with the reopening of 30 states and the potential for infection and reinfection increases dramatically. That is why I am being optimistic that the COVID-related death toll can slow to 5k per month or less by August so that the likelihood of schools opening for all grades is enhanced. If deaths begin to spike up towards the 2k per day figure in the U.S. during the summer due to the reopening of the economy and despite the improved weather, the U.S. will have to reassess and respond accordingly. Asking people to stay-at-home again for an indefinite period will be problematic. We are seeing the beginning flames of resistance showing up in numerous states. It will make for a very anxiety-ridden summer in this country. |
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Post by beaverstever on May 1, 2020 11:03:15 GMT -8
The goal has always been to flatten and stabilize the curve so that deaths aren't a result of a flooded health-care system, not that we can keep infections from happening until a vaccine is available - that wasn't plausible. Keep in mind that those managing this pandemic are considering:
- Some of the Covid deaths would have happened regardless, due to some other infection (Flu, etc). People that are extremely compromised are the next infection away from a fatality.
- Deaths will pile up (are piling up) due to the quarantine measures (crime from desperation, domestic violence, malnutrition, neglect, fear of seeking treatment at medical facilities for other health issues, etc). These harder to correlate, but are non-trivial already.
I live in the Bay Area, and we will have a slight easing of the quarantine on May 4th. Our local hospitals have very few COVID patients, and they are laying off staff because so little is happening there. However, the government still has to be careful on easing too fast because we still have a bottleneck in our PPE supplies for our health care workers at this point. That's a problem that can be remedied (and frankly should already be).
In general, I believe we are moving fairly quickly into an overall manageable situation, albeit a rock-and-a-hard-place stasis.
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Post by markwbeaver on May 1, 2020 16:26:14 GMT -8
FWIW, in the state George Fox has announced its plans to open the residential campus this fall. I've heard the same, but do not know for sure, that the University of Portland has announced the same.
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rafer
Sophomore
Posts: 1,635 
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Post by rafer on May 1, 2020 16:46:09 GMT -8
The goal has always been to flatten and stabilize the curve so that deaths aren't a result of a flooded health-care system, not that we can keep infections from happening until a vaccine is available - that wasn't plausible. Keep in mind that those managing this pandemic are considering: - Some of the Covid deaths would have happened regardless, due to some other infection (Flu, etc). People that are extremely compromised are the next infection away from a fatality. - Deaths will pile up (are piling up) due to the quarantine measures (crime from desperation, domestic violence, malnutrition, neglect, fear of seeking treatment at medical facilities for other health issues, etc). These harder to correlate, but are non-trivial already. I live in the Bay Area, and we will have a slight easing of the quarantine on May 4th. Our local hospitals have very few COVID patients, and they are laying off staff because so little is happening there. However, the government still has to be careful on easing too fast because we still have a bottleneck in our PPE supplies for our health care workers at this point. That's a problem that can be remedied (and frankly should already be). In general, I believe we are moving fairly quickly into an overall manageable situation, albeit a rock-and-a-hard-place stasis. "- Some of the Covid deaths would have happened regardless, due to some other infection (Flu, etc). People that are extremely compromised are the next infection away from a fatality." I've been following the ORegon statistics everyday, one thing stands out, literally, everyone that I've seen reported had underlying health issues. It seems, although I didn't keep track, that about 405 have died at their residence, which tells me that they were already very seriously compromised, many it appears were in nursing homes, or care facilities. No, that does not mean those don't count, and they are all obviously a loss to their friends and families, however, I do think it sways the actual COVIG fatality numbers by a large margin, IMO... |
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Post by wbosh15 on May 1, 2020 16:48:06 GMT -8
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Post by kersting13 on May 2, 2020 20:33:19 GMT -8
The goal has always been to flatten and stabilize the curve so that deaths aren't a result of a flooded health-care system, not that we can keep infections from happening until a vaccine is available - that wasn't plausible. Keep in mind that those managing this pandemic are considering: - Some of the Covid deaths would have happened regardless, due to some other infection (Flu, etc). People that are extremely compromised are the next infection away from a fatality. - Deaths will pile up (are piling up) due to the quarantine measures (crime from desperation, domestic violence, malnutrition, neglect, fear of seeking treatment at medical facilities for other health issues, etc). These harder to correlate, but are non-trivial already. I live in the Bay Area, and we will have a slight easing of the quarantine on May 4th. Our local hospitals have very few COVID patients, and they are laying off staff because so little is happening there. However, the government still has to be careful on easing too fast because we still have a bottleneck in our PPE supplies for our health care workers at this point. That's a problem that can be remedied (and frankly should already be). In general, I believe we are moving fairly quickly into an overall manageable situation, albeit a rock-and-a-hard-place stasis. "- Some of the Covid deaths would have happened regardless, due to some other infection (Flu, etc). People that are extremely compromised are the next infection away from a fatality." I've been following the ORegon statistics everyday, one thing stands out, literally, everyone that I've seen reported had underlying health issues. It seems, although I didn't keep track, that about 405 have died at their residence, which tells me that they were already very seriously compromised, many it appears were in nursing homes, or care facilities. No, that does not mean those don't count, and they are all obviously a loss to their friends and families, however, I do think it sways the actual COVIG fatality numbers by a large margin, IMO... The age breakdown for COVID deaths is notable (from CDC): In the US: 31% age 85 or over 58% age 75 or over 79% age 65 or over 92% age 55 or over 97% age 45 or over 0.1% COVID-19 deaths in the US are people age 24 and under. 100% of Oregon COVID-19 deaths had underlying conditions - it's not 100% nationwide, but it's high. Now, we're just talking deaths here. Not to say that some younger people haven't been hit hard by the virus, but strictly on a "death" count, this disease is easy on younger people. All of this said, my mother is 91, and has COPD, so she's square in the cross-hairs of COVID-19. I am unable and unwilling to visit her. |
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Post by beaverstever on May 2, 2020 23:43:45 GMT -8
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Post by beavershoopsfan on May 3, 2020 6:14:46 GMT -8
If the theory is accurate, a huge step forward in confirming our understanding that the presence of antibodies will ward off further COVID-19 infections for some period of time. |
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