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Post by beaveroracle on Apr 29, 2020 14:44:55 GMT -8
There will continue to be pandemic impact in the Fall and Winter. A certain level of social distancing, wearing of masks, etc. That will be combined with steps including quarantining when needed and contact tracing. Improved treatment regimens will have emerged although a vaccine in that time frame is very unlikely.
With our better systems in place for managing outbreaks, better knowledge of optimal treatment protocols, and with enormous economic and societal pressure to come back closer to pre-pandemic normal, I will be extremely surprised if schools are not open and athletics underway by Fall.
A vaccine is not a pre-condition for that. The key is simply keeping the effective reproduction number for the virus below one. That is feasible even as we move back closer to a pre-pandemic normal. We may not see a filled Gill Coliseum. But I am confident games will be played.
Won't bother to comment again but my confidence is high. We'll see who is right!
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Post by mbabeav on Apr 29, 2020 15:02:00 GMT -8
There will continue to be pandemic impact in the Fall and Winter. A certain level of social distancing, wearing of masks, etc. That will be combined with steps including quarantining when needed and contact tracing. Improved treatment regimens will have emerged although a vaccine in that time frame is very unlikely. With our better systems in place for managing outbreaks, better knowledge of optimal treatment protocols, and with enormous economic and societal pressure to come back closer to pre-pandemic normal, I will be extremely surprised if schools are not open and athletics underway by Fall. A vaccine is not a pre-condition for that. The key is simply keeping the effective reproduction number for the virus below one. That is feasible even as we move back closer to a pre-pandemic normal. We may not see a filled Gill Coliseum. But I am confident games will be played. Won't bother to comment again but my confidence is high. We'll see who is right! I will watch it, and pay to watch it, on tv. IMO, the real Elephant in the room is the school liability issue - you can't force kids or coaches to participate - many of the kids might play, but some players and/or advisors, like Mom & Dad might be there saying "take a year off". I think it would put undo pressure on the players fighting to make the squad vs the studs who have a place regardless - pressure me and I hit the Portal. |
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Post by rmancarl on Apr 29, 2020 15:02:43 GMT -8
There will continue to be pandemic impact in the Fall and Winter. A certain level of social distancing, wearing of masks, etc. That will be combined with steps including quarantining when needed and contact tracing. Improved treatment regimens will have emerged although a vaccine in that time frame is very unlikely. With our better systems in place for managing outbreaks, better knowledge of optimal treatment protocols, and with enormous economic and societal pressure to come back closer to pre-pandemic normal, I will be extremely surprised if schools are not open and athletics underway by Fall. A vaccine is not a pre-condition for that. The key is simply keeping the effective reproduction number for the virus below one. That is feasible even as we move back closer to a pre-pandemic normal. We may not see a filled Gill Coliseum. But I am confident games will be played. Won't bother to comment again but my confidence is high. We'll see who is right! I've gone back and forth so much on this, and at times have thought there was little hope. Recent events have led me to believe much like beaveroracle. It may not be what we had before, or what we want, but I expect school, and probably even athletics will return certainly by January, if not this fall. Nascar has been approved (with no attendance) in NC, some states are allowing movie theaters, etc with only 25% capacity and some treatments are looking more positive. I do believe there will still be serious restrictions come this fall/winter, but I think we will again have campus classes and professional sports. I hedge just a bit on college sports, but I expect winter/spring sports to operate in some form. We are still really early into this, and I expect (hope) that we as humans will find safer ways to handle our everyday life, while still enjoying some of our favorite pass times. |
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Post by kersting13 on Apr 29, 2020 16:01:52 GMT -8
There will continue to be pandemic impact in the Fall and Winter. A certain level of social distancing, wearing of masks, etc. That will be combined with steps including quarantining when needed and contact tracing. Improved treatment regimens will have emerged although a vaccine in that time frame is very unlikely. With our better systems in place for managing outbreaks, better knowledge of optimal treatment protocols, and with enormous economic and societal pressure to come back closer to pre-pandemic normal, I will be extremely surprised if schools are not open and athletics underway by Fall. A vaccine is not a pre-condition for that. The key is simply keeping the effective reproduction number for the virus below one. That is feasible even as we move back closer to a pre-pandemic normal. We may not see a filled Gill Coliseum. But I am confident games will be played. Won't bother to comment again but my confidence is high. We'll see who is right! I will watch it, and pay to watch it, on tv. IMO, the real Elephant in the room is the school liability issue - you can't force kids or coaches to participate - many of the kids might play, but some players and/or advisors, like Mom & Dad might be there saying "take a year off". I think it would put undo pressure on the players fighting to make the squad vs the studs who have a place regardless - pressure me and I hit the Portal. I'm not sure why schools would be liable for anything - if data says there's virtually zero chance for a college age, healthy person dying from the disease, wouldn't a "reasonable" person say it's OK for them to participate? I'm not a lawyer. |
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Post by beavershoopsfan on Apr 29, 2020 16:19:42 GMT -8
I will watch it, and pay to watch it, on tv. IMO, the real Elephant in the room is the school liability issue - you can't force kids or coaches to participate - many of the kids might play, but some players and/or advisors, like Mom & Dad might be there saying "take a year off". I think it would put undo pressure on the players fighting to make the squad vs the studs who have a place regardless - pressure me and I hit the Portal. I'm not sure why schools would be liable for anything - if data says there's virtually zero chance for a college age, healthy person dying from the disease, wouldn't a "reasonable" person say it's OK for them to participate? I'm not a lawyer. Lawyers will be salivating whenever liability is unclear and an otherwise healthy athlete succumbs to a disease that he/she likely contracted through participation in athletics. My guess is that we would see various "Assumption of Risk" documents that colleges would require athletes to sign prior to allowing athletes to participate in training. |
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Post by beavershoopsfan on Apr 29, 2020 17:13:34 GMT -8
There will continue to be pandemic impact in the Fall and Winter. A certain level of social distancing, wearing of masks, etc. That will be combined with steps including quarantining when needed and contact tracing. Improved treatment regimens will have emerged although a vaccine in that time frame is very unlikely. With our better systems in place for managing outbreaks, better knowledge of optimal treatment protocols, and with enormous economic and societal pressure to come back closer to pre-pandemic normal, I will be extremely surprised if schools are not open and athletics underway by Fa ll.
A vaccine is not a pre-condition for that. The key is simply keeping the effective reproduction number for the virus below one. That is feasible even as we move back closer to a pre-pandemic normal. We may not see a filled Gill Coliseum. But I am confident games will be played. Won't bother to comment again but my confidence is high. We'll see who is right! I like your confidence and positive outlook. I would like to be able to come back to this thread in September and be able to acknowledge that school and athletics are taking place on campus as beaveroracle predicts above. I have seen the estimated R0 for COVID-19 in the 2.0-3.0 range by multiple sources with some medical analysts placing the figure even higher. Absent significant social distancing measures and a better understanding about the transmission of the illness, the "simple" key posted above of keeping the R0 below 1.0 would appear to be difficult to achieve. With a second wave of the virus predicted for the fall, I don't foresee that keeping the R0 below 1.0 is likely when combined with a return to campus and fall sports. However, I will applaud beaveroracle's foresight happily if he turns out to be accurate. If he is wrong, the consequences will be notable. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1www.bbc.com/news/health-52473523 |
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Apr 29, 2020 17:21:23 GMT -8
I will watch it, and pay to watch it, on tv. IMO, the real Elephant in the room is the school liability issue - you can't force kids or coaches to participate - many of the kids might play, but some players and/or advisors, like Mom & Dad might be there saying "take a year off". I think it would put undo pressure on the players fighting to make the squad vs the studs who have a place regardless - pressure me and I hit the Portal. I'm not sure why schools would be liable for anything - if data says there's virtually zero chance for a college age, healthy person dying from the disease, wouldn't a "reasonable" person say it's OK for them to participate? I'm not a lawyer. It is not the college age, healthy person that is the concern. It's the senior citizen that contacts the virus from that person. Also the more people infected the more chances it has to mutate, possibly into something that could take that college age, healthy person down. |
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Post by kersting13 on Apr 29, 2020 19:16:53 GMT -8
I'm not sure why schools would be liable for anything - if data says there's virtually zero chance for a college age, healthy person dying from the disease, wouldn't a "reasonable" person say it's OK for them to participate? I'm not a lawyer. It is not the college age, healthy person that is the concern. It's the senior citizen that contacts the virus from that person. Also the more people infected the more chances it has to mutate, possibly into something that could take that college age, healthy person down. I’m pretty sure senior citizens aren’t any more likely to contract a virus from a college athlete than they are from getting it from the clerk at the Fred Meyer. Senior citizens won’t be participating in intercollegiate athletics. I can’t imagine a world in which a senior citizen who dies from COVID -19 could sue an NCAA school for their death because they played a basketball game. |
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Apr 29, 2020 19:36:18 GMT -8
Not more likely on an individual contact case but fred meyer doesn't employ 20000+ people in Corvallis.
I've never said anything about lawyers or lawsuits, have no interest in going down that rabbit hole.
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Post by mbabeav on Apr 29, 2020 20:56:35 GMT -8
It is not the college age, healthy person that is the concern. It's the senior citizen that contacts the virus from that person. Also the more people infected the more chances it has to mutate, possibly into something that could take that college age, healthy person down. I’m pretty sure senior citizens aren’t any more likely to contract a virus from a college athlete than they are from getting it from the clerk at the Fred Meyer. Senior citizens won’t be participating in intercollegiate athletics. I can’t imagine a world in which a senior citizen who dies from COVID -19 could sue an NCAA school for their death because they played a basketball game.S so college students don't have parents or grandparents or neighbors or aunts or uncles. They may not get very sick but they certainly can transmit the illness. You'd almost have to keep them isolated on campus away from everybody else for the entire season + 14 days |
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Post by beavershoopsfan on Apr 29, 2020 21:40:54 GMT -8
College students and athletes can clearly be asymptomatic carriers of the virus and spread it to their fellow youth and others who are more susceptible to succumbing to the disease. If contact sports are allowed to be played during the upcoming months, I'm sure that a given sport will be shut down quickly as soon as multiple players have to be quarantined and/or a seemingly healthy individual has a hospitalization experience. We saw how quickly the NBA shut down operations when Rudy Gobert was diagnosed in March.
It will be interesting to see how tolerant a sport can be of continuing to play if/when players are removed and quarantined. I just can't see a sport's leaders allowing an outbreak to take place without responding by halting all activities.
Sports fans want to see live sports again soon, but I certainly can wait until we have more effective treatment methods and a better understanding of how this virus attacks and weakens the body. Physicians are learning more and more each week about how to improve COVID-19 outcomes. I really don't want to see football played in the fall unless the CFR is much lower than what the U.S. has documented via the testing so far.
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Post by alwaysorange on Apr 30, 2020 6:04:35 GMT -8
Got a question. We are several months maybe a year a way from a vaccine. At what point is the spread/ deaths due to this virus acceptable? every year even with a vaccine tens of thousands die in this country due to the common flu. The virus will always be here so what you willing to live with?
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Post by kersting13 on Apr 30, 2020 7:06:09 GMT -8
Not more likely on an individual contact case but fred meyer doesn't employ 20000+ people in Corvallis. I've never said anything about lawyers or lawsuits, have no interest in going down that rabbit hole. Invoking the 20,000 people remark, it seems you’re more worried about school being in session than actual basketball games being played. Because, you know, there’s not 20,000 people playing basketball at any one location. |
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Apr 30, 2020 7:52:58 GMT -8
Not more likely on an individual contact case but fred meyer doesn't employ 20000+ people in Corvallis. I've never said anything about lawyers or lawsuits, have no interest in going down that rabbit hole. Invoking the 20,000 people remark, it seems you’re more worried about school being in session than actual basketball games being played. Because, you know, there’s not 20,000 people playing basketball at any one location. I'm definitely more concerned about the general student population than just the athletes. |
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Post by mbabeav on Apr 30, 2020 11:46:05 GMT -8
Invoking the 20,000 people remark, it seems you’re more worried about school being in session than actual basketball games being played. Because, you know, there’s not 20,000 people playing basketball at any one location. I'm definitely more concerned about the general student population than just the athletes. I'm concerned about people. |
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