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Post by beavershoopsfan on Apr 11, 2020 19:35:27 GMT -8
As a lifelong basketball and sports fan, I try hard to imagine what has to happen in our world in order for contact sports to return to action.
We know that a comprehensive COVID-19 testing protocol and/or a vaccine will likely be needed before the NCAA can give the thumbs up to beginning basketball practices.
Are any of you feeling confident that our world will be back to normal by October so that collegiate basketball teams can start practicing?
Universities throughout the country are committing a lot of money in scholarships to student-athletes who may not be able to compete in their respective sports any time soon.
What has to happen before collegiate wrestling will be allowed to take place again?
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Post by 411500 on Apr 11, 2020 20:02:39 GMT -8
We're all pretty ill informed on this topic..The evidence, the needed information simply is not yet available..
So this might be one of those rare scenarios where one person's point of view is as valid as another's.
So, with that said, here's how I'm seeing things right now....early April, 2020.
No football this fall, period.
Basketball practice will begin Dec. 1. All pre-conference games cancelled. Conference play begins Jan. 1, 2021.
That's how it's looking to me right now...Glad to hear other ideas....
GO BEAVS !!
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Post by baseba1111 on Apr 11, 2020 20:14:17 GMT -8
We're all pretty ill informed on this topic..The evidence, the needed information simply is not yet available.. So this might be one of those rare scenarios where one person's point of view is as valid as another's. So, with that said, here's how I'm seeing things right now....early April, 2020. No football this fall, period. Basketball practice will begin Dec. 1. All pre-conference games cancelled. Conference play begins Jan. 1, 2021. That's how it's looking to me right now...Glad to hear other ideas.... GO BEAVS !! If there is classes on campus there will be athletics. Maybe abbreviated, only Pac12 games or random teams who are playing... for football, hoops... maybe normality by Spring? But, can see different parts of the country doing different things as long as Governors are the ones making the calls. |
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Post by rmancarl on Apr 11, 2020 21:46:22 GMT -8
I think 411500's thoughts of no sports until January is very likely. I could see this go a number of different ways.
Possiblly WBB games start in November with empty stadiums until January (or longer)
Maybe they delay the start of winter sports until January, and push March madness until May.
Then there is the possibility that sports won't begin until spring, or even fall of 2021.
It would really take some ramping up, but I could see where they allow a limited amount of fans, or take peoples temps, or even require Covid-19 test.....but again, that would take major ramping up.
I hope I'm wrong. I hope we are good to go on schedule, but I just don't see it yet. There is so much bad news, and people cling to bad news, so the positives get drowwned out. People going stir crazy may lead to an earlier return, but who knows.
And baseba111 is right. If different parts of the country are under different orders, how can you even schedule games?
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Post by alwaysorange on Apr 12, 2020 5:33:20 GMT -8
If football isn't played you might as well forget basketball or any other sport the college athletic departments will not survive.
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Post by sparty on Apr 12, 2020 5:42:20 GMT -8
To expand on allwaysorange point.
Well you mean the have or have nots? The haves that are funded by deep pocket donor(s) will field teams at some point without the football engine even running. The have nots will likely have to par down the sports they offer. Will the future financial stability of a athletic department figure in some recruits choice to play worry free for 4 years. The answer is you bet. Same goes for coaches.
So maybe it will be the pac-6 for awhile in some sports? The haves all ways win out, sadly. |
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Post by 411500 on Apr 12, 2020 7:09:54 GMT -8
Shifting gears slightly....
If the football season is cancelled this fall it might be the first step in many colleges giving up football altogether....
Probably none of the top 50 programs will go this route.....But maybe some those ranked (roughly) 75 - 125....
Just as is currently the case for many smaller universities like U. Portland, Gonzaga, etc.....
I'm not a firm believer in this idea, but in today's topsy-turvy world it's as sensible as a lot of things going on...
Football is a money loser for most colleges and universities...And there already exists sentiment on many campuses to drop football..
Many programs are preparing exit schemes because of the concussion issue, brain trauma protocols, high insurance premiums, pending law suits, and, as well, pockets of alumni opposition to football.....
Not sure how this popped into my head half way thru morning coffee, but so it is after 22 days of self-isolation.
GO BEAVS !!
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Post by qbeaver on Apr 12, 2020 7:12:29 GMT -8
If football isn't played you might as well forget basketball or any other sport the college athletic departments will not survive. Agreed...college football profits pay for all the other sports a university offers...haves or have nots. Lots of changes in store for college athletics,where not revenue sports may become club sports offering no scholarships. They are a money drain,even though we love baseball,wbb,wrestling,etc.The caronavirus will change college sports forever,and society for that matter forever... |
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Post by Werebeaver on Apr 12, 2020 7:21:22 GMT -8
Has Vegas set a line on it yet?
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Post by beavershoopsfan on Apr 12, 2020 7:51:54 GMT -8
No. This thing has just begun. A new study based on China indicates the following: R-naught is 5.7. For asymptomatic people it's 8.9; Asymptomatic carriers [50% of cases] are infectious for up to 21 days; Herd immunity is achieved after 82% of community have had the virus/vaccine; A number of red state governors are morons and about to lift their stay-at-home orders. This will lead to an explosion of cases; It's clear that Mr. Trump and his enablers will be treating the problem via herd immunity. At a 1.5% mortality rate, that's 49,200 deaths in Oregon and 4.3 million deaths nationwide. That prediction (4.3m deaths) is wildly different than what most experts are predicting. A million plus deaths would have been plausible if social distancing had not been implemented, but it largely has been. Most experts are now predicting a nationwide death toll between 50,000 to 200,000. We appear to be at or near the peak death rate now and with the virus largely under control in the U.S. by this summer. There is concern that there will be second peak of activity in the Fall after social distancing has been relaxed for some time. Extreme testing measures and active controls in outbreak zones will be necessary to contain and prevent a second wave and associated further societal disruption.
I believe Fall sports will resume, perhaps with some limitations, and there could be further disruption if a second wave hits in the Fall.Your info above seems reasonable/informed and perhaps a bit hopeful given where our nation is today with respect to stay at home directives and the national death toll approaching 21k. However, how can football be played so soon when there remains so much uncertainty still as to how many people have the virus and how contagious our simple breathing around people is? I just don't see university administrators giving the green light for contact sports unless there is significant certainty that athletes can't readily contract a illness by casual contact/breathing. This virus crisis seems to require a vaccine or another similar means to prevent widespread contagion before athletes are allowed to get close to each other via competition actions.Unfortunately, many observers don't think the US will restart on-location schooling or contact sports until a vaccine is discovered and comprehensively deployed. Our country may re-open for business purposes prior to the fall, but traditional schooling and contact sports appear to have major obstacles to overcome before our officials feel comfortable in returning to normalcy in those areas. |
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Post by beaveroracle on Apr 12, 2020 8:06:34 GMT -8
That prediction (4.3m deaths) is wildly different than what most experts are predicting. A million plus deaths would have been plausible if social distancing had not been implemented, but it largely has been. Most experts are now predicting a nationwide death toll between 50,000 to 200,000. We appear to be at or near the peak death rate now and with the virus largely under control in the U.S. by this summer. There is concern that there will be second peak of activity in the Fall after social distancing has been relaxed for some time. Extreme testing measures and active controls in outbreak zones will be necessary to contain and prevent a second wave and associated further societal disruption. I believe Fall sports will resume, perhaps with some limitations, and there could be further disruption if a second wave hits in the Fall. Dr. Fauci, a credible expert for Dems and Rep. alike, predicts about 60,000 deaths: www.npr.org/2020/04/09/830664814/fauci-says-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-may-be-more-like-60-000-antibody-tests-on-wayYour info above seems reasonable/informed and perhaps a bit hopeful given where our nation is today with respect to stay at home directives and the national death toll approaching 21k. However, how can football be played so soon when there remains so much uncertainty still as to how many people have the virus and how contagious breathing around people is? I just don't see university administrators giving the green light for contact sports unless there is significant certainty that athletes c All athletes can be routinely tested for the virus with simple blood prick tests. Continued vigilance will be key to keeping the virus from re-emerging. However, once the virus dies out in a region it does take time for it spread again widely. If there are rigorous testing programs for athletes and of course in the population as a whole for people with symptoms that could be a result of COVID-19, the virus can be kept from re-emerging outside occasional flare-ups. Although COVID-19 is harder to contain than many viruses, because its more highly contagious and can spread asymptomatically, the same protocols that have successfully been used in the past for epidemics like SARS, can be used to contain COVID-19. Testing and vigilance is the key. |
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Post by beavershoopsfan on Apr 12, 2020 8:14:52 GMT -8
I agree that testing is a key to moving forward in returning to a sense of normalcy in this country. However, the reality is that comprehensive testing and re-testing to determine who is infected appears to be months and months away from happening.
Rightly so, the testing of athletes for the purposes of returning to action will be far down the line with respect to our nation's priorities. The efforts that would need to be expended for that purpose can't be justified in a world in which our medical professionals continue to fight a daily battle in learning how to deal with the spread of the virus.
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Post by beaveroracle on Apr 12, 2020 8:29:11 GMT -8
I agree that testing is a key to moving forward in returning to a sense of normalcy in this country. However, the reality is that comprehensive testing and re-testing to determine who is infected appears to be months and months away from happening. Rightly so, the testing of athletes for the purposes of returning to action will be far down the line with respect to our nation's priorities. The efforts that would need to be expended for that purpose can't be justified in a world in which our medical professionals continue to fight a daily battle in learning how to deal with the spread of the virus. I don't think it's months away. Testing has already ramped-up substantially (although the federal government should have done more to make that happen much sooner). And newer tests such as this one from Abbott (https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/27/a-new-fda-authorized-covid-19-test-doesnt-need-a-lab-and-can-produce-results-in-just-5-minutes/) can allow tests to be conducted anywhere (e.g. by a qualified nurse on campus). By the way, although just one of many models and certainly not considered definitive, here is one model for the virus that is presented nicely: covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americaThis particular model estimates death rates peaked two days ago. Of course, as shown, there is a lot of uncertainty in that. |
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Post by sparty on Apr 12, 2020 9:09:48 GMT -8
No. This thing has just begun. A new study based on China indicates the following: R-naught is 5.7. For asymptomatic people it's 8.9; Asymptomatic carriers [50% of cases] are infectious for up to 21 days; Herd immunity is achieved after 82% of community have had the virus/vaccine; A number of red state governors are morons and about to lift their stay-at-home orders. This will lead to an explosion of cases; It's clear that Mr. Trump and his enablers will be treating the problem via herd immunity. At a 1.5% mortality rate, that's 49,200 deaths in Oregon and 4.3 million deaths nationwide. I think some people must get there jollies off searching out the absolute worst-case predictions/projections out there and then passing that along as reasonable/likely. Fear mongering at it's best. Well if Scott can't recruit a big time point guard for next year it might be better off skipping a year when the next round of high school freshmen are ready to recruit.
Maybe Aquino will be ready to play by then? That is the best perspective on things.
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Apr 12, 2020 11:04:41 GMT -8
I don't see fall sports happening, at least not with what I've read/heard. Their practices would need to start in a couple months at least. Best case we get to see winter sports. The optimist in me gives it a 50-50 chance.
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