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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Jun 17, 2020 14:35:23 GMT -8
Back to Phase I for Union County. I'm sure the merchants are just thrilled with that church. And the local hospital is making plans to transfer patients to Boise or Portland if/when it gets overwhelmed. More winning!
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Post by irimi on Jun 18, 2020 16:58:25 GMT -8
It’s only about deaths? What about hospitalizations? Yes. It's only about deaths.
At least you are honest. You really can only take this view because strong measures were taken to reduce infections and keep people out of the hospital. At least here in Oregon. Don’t be naive. The numbers could be much worse. Look at Italy where hospitals were overwhelmed. Plus, I gotta say that you’re point of view is demeaning toward the doctors and nurses who sacrificed throughout this whole pandemic and you crap on the noble memory of the several doctors who died while serving COVID patients. |
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Post by spudbeaver on Jun 18, 2020 19:34:13 GMT -8
Yes. It's only about deaths.
At least you are honest. You really can only take this view because strong measures were taken to reduce infections and keep people out of the hospital. At least here in Oregon. Don’t be naive. The numbers could be much worse. Look at Italy where hospitals were overwhelmed. Plus, I gotta say that you’re point of view is demeaning toward the doctors and nurses who sacrificed throughout this whole pandemic and you crap on the noble memory of the several doctors who died while serving COVID patients. your |
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Post by irimi on Jun 18, 2020 19:37:59 GMT -8
At least you are honest. You really can only take this view because strong measures were taken to reduce infections and keep people out of the hospital. At least here in Oregon. Don’t be naive. The numbers could be much worse. Look at Italy where hospitals were overwhelmed. Plus, I gotta say that you’re point of view is demeaning toward the doctors and nurses who sacrificed throughout this whole pandemic and you crap on the noble memory of the several doctors who died while serving COVID patients. your Yup. Thanks. :-)
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Post by kersting13 on Jun 23, 2020 9:00:51 GMT -8
Latest projections >200,000 deaths. They haven't updated in over a week, (or at least haven't posted an update) but it appears their numbers were a bit high. They had deaths over the last week plateauing, while in reality, they've gone down by more than 15%. Their prediction had the lowest daily deaths at 638 on July 25, and then going up from there. We're already lower than 638 now, and numbers are still going down. I do realize that reported infection numbers are going up, but nothing showing up in death numbers yet. I do sometimes wonder if the increased infections are among younger people who are getting out and about more, but won't die from this. I haven't seen demographics for current testing and infections, which would seem important to know for predicting deaths. |
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Post by pitbeavs on Jun 23, 2020 9:33:17 GMT -8
At least you are honest. You really can only take this view because strong measures were taken to reduce infections and keep people out of the hospital. At least here in Oregon. Don’t be naive. The numbers could be much worse. Look at Italy where hospitals were overwhelmed. Plus, I gotta say that you’re point of view is demeaning toward the doctors and nurses who sacrificed throughout this whole pandemic and you crap on the noble memory of the several doctors who died while serving COVID patients. I'm not Henry Skrimshander. That is his characterization (within red quoted link).
The situation in Italy had about as much in common with Oregon as the
situation in NYC had with Oregon. Nothing, whatsoever.
There was never going to be "overwhelmed hospitals" in Oregon.
beaverclever -- where did you get your degree in epidemiology? |
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Post by ag87 on Jun 23, 2020 9:43:44 GMT -8
I'm not Henry Skrimshander. That is his characterization (within red quoted link).
The situation in Italy had about as much in common with Oregon as the
situation in NYC had with Oregon. Nothing, whatsoever.
There was never going to be "overwhelmed hospitals" in Oregon.
beaverclever -- where did you get your degree in epidemiology? AlexJones University? |
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Post by kersting13 on Jun 23, 2020 9:59:21 GMT -8
beaverclever -- where did you get your degree in epidemiology? AlexJones University? You can see the hospital resource use here: linkSo far, the closest Oregon has been to its resource limit for ICU beds was 15% of capacity. |
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Post by mbabeav on Jun 23, 2020 12:35:10 GMT -8
You can see the hospital resource use here: linkSo far, the closest Oregon has been to its resource limit for ICU beds was 15% of capacity. Operative word is "so far" - ask us this utilization rate 6 months from now. Those who had mild cases or were not symptomatic, how are they going to react to the flu or even a common cold? And a lot has been said about herd immunity. How about seeded sources? When we all start to move back indoors, will those people contagious amongst us mark the source of a second wave? Ask a church or a packing plant. There is a lot of excitement about a possible vaccine being ready by the end of this year. But it might take a year or more to get it out to the general population - hard to snap your fingers and have 300 million doses for this country, or 7+ billion doses for the world at large instantaneously. So far, we are where we are at right now. So far, that's all we really know, sort of. |
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Post by atownbeaver on Jun 23, 2020 12:57:52 GMT -8
You can see the hospital resource use here: linkSo far, the closest Oregon has been to its resource limit for ICU beds was 15% of capacity. I hate to break it to you but the hospitalization data on this site is s%#t. and their other projections are not so great either. I suppose it isn't the worst thing int he world using secondary data, but you can already see it is not responsive to change. The test per day projects are off by more than a 1,000 per day from actual. Available ICU beds is pretty off, and it appears they are already over projecting deaths. |
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Post by atownbeaver on Jun 23, 2020 13:03:07 GMT -8
You can see the hospital resource use here: linkSo far, the closest Oregon has been to its resource limit for ICU beds was 15% of capacity. Operative word is "so far" - ask us this utilization rate 6 months from now. Those who had mild cases or were not symptomatic, how are they going to react to the flu or even a common cold? And a lot has been said about herd immunity. How about seeded sources? When we all start to move back indoors, will those people contagious amongst us mark the source of a second wave? Ask a church or a packing plant. There is a lot of excitement about a possible vaccine being ready by the end of this year. But it might take a year or more to get it out to the general population - hard to snap your fingers and have 300 million doses for this country, or 7+ billion doses for the world at large instantaneously. So far, we are where we are at right now. So far, that's all we really know, sort of. To that end, hope the Moderna's vaccine works. There are, literally, 100+ independent organizations working to make a vaccine. Some using similar approaches, some using different approaches. Moderna, however, is an ideal one to win because they own pretty exclusive messenger RNA replication technology that would allow them to produce upwards of 2.5 millions doses of a vaccine PER DAY at their current capacity. It is likely there will be a few vaccines available, all at close to the same time. be less concerned about availability and more concerned about efficacy. I would put money on the vaccine only being roughly 50% effective in the first year. I would also stress heavily that a 50% effective vaccine is infinitely better than no vaccine and everybody should be tripping over themselves to get it, if you actually want to get back to normal life. |
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Post by pitbeavs on Jun 23, 2020 13:17:35 GMT -8
beaverclever -- where did you get your degree in epidemiology? AlexJones University? Trump University? |
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Post by pitbeavs on Jun 23, 2020 13:19:39 GMT -8
Operative word is "so far" - ask us this utilization rate 6 months from now. Those who had mild cases or were not symptomatic, how are they going to react to the flu or even a common cold? And a lot has been said about herd immunity. How about seeded sources? When we all start to move back indoors, will those people contagious amongst us mark the source of a second wave? Ask a church or a packing plant. There is a lot of excitement about a possible vaccine being ready by the end of this year. But it might take a year or more to get it out to the general population - hard to snap your fingers and have 300 million doses for this country, or 7+ billion doses for the world at large instantaneously. So far, we are where we are at right now. So far, that's all we really know, sort of. To that end, hope the Moderna's vaccine works. There are, literally, 100+ independent organizations working to make a vaccine. Some using similar approaches, some using different approaches. Moderna, however, is an ideal one to win because they own pretty exclusive messenger RNA replication technology that would allow them to produce upwards of 2.5 millions doses of a vaccine PER DAY at their current capacity. It is likely there will be a few vaccines available, all at close to the same time. be less concerned about availability and more concerned about efficacy. I would put money on the vaccine only being roughly 50% effective in the first year. I would also stress heavily that a 50% effective vaccine is infinitely better than no vaccine and everybody should be tripping over themselves to get it, if you actually want to get back to normal life. Except the anti-vaxxers. |
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Post by Werebeaver on Jun 23, 2020 14:19:32 GMT -8
You can see the hospital resource use here: linkSo far, the closest Oregon has been to its resource limit for ICU beds was 15% of capacity. I hate to break it to you but the hospitalization data on this site is s%#t. and their other projections are not so great either. I suppose it isn't the worst thing int he world using secondary data, but you can already see it is not responsive to change. The test per day projects are off by more than a 1,000 per day from actual. Available ICU beds is pretty off, and it appears they are already over projecting deaths. Please feel free to share links to your superior data. If it exists. Don't take it personally but I'm not inclined to take your word for it. |
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Post by kersting13 on Jun 23, 2020 15:59:53 GMT -8
You can see the hospital resource use here: linkSo far, the closest Oregon has been to its resource limit for ICU beds was 15% of capacity. I hate to break it to you but the hospitalization data on this site is s%#t. and their other projections are not so great either. I suppose it isn't the worst thing int he world using secondary data, but you can already see it is not responsive to change. The test per day projects are off by more than a 1,000 per day from actual. Available ICU beds is pretty off, and it appears they are already over projecting deaths. Apparently, you didn't read my post that was made an hour before the one above where I questioned their projections.  But, as Werebeaver says below, it's the best we've got right now. |
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