Latest COVID-19 Projection from IHME

Greater Idaho. An idea whose time has finally come! If Eastern Oregon can leave, count 'em.

Imagine the sales of that t-shirt. Hundreds!

Find it at the "prepper" store....or the discount bin at Big Lots

I'm trying to figure out the map on the t-shirt. I realize it's just someone's idea on how to sell shirts. But it looks like includes all of Oregon except the Willamette valley and the coastal counties north of (and including) Lane County. Also included is Modoc, Lassen, Shasta, Trinity and Siskiyou counties in California.

Barely related but I was involved in a road design and construction project in Lakeview in the early 2000's. Total budget was in the neighborhood of $30M. It involved overlayment and guard rail replacement of HWY 395 and realignment of a portion of 140 about 15 miles east of Lakeview. The average daily traffic of 140 was 250 vehicles a day. ODOT was paying the bills and Lake County's financial contribution was $40,000. Two curves were signed at 25 mph and one at 35 mph on the old alignment. We presented some design options to the board of commissioners of Lake County. In the proposed alignment the three curves were reduced to two. One option had both curves designed at 55 mph and the other option had one curve designed at 55 mph and the other at 45 mph. There was a large difference in construction costs for the two options. I think $1M. The county commissioner said he liked the two 55 mph curve design better. I asked if Lake County could raise their financial contribution a little. He said no. The cheaper option got built. Lake County was collecting about $200K per year in state gas taxes at that time. The general attitude in Lakeview was them dang'ed Portlanders were making their lives much more difficult.

Sage was fighting for liberal and union causes long before most posters were born. He is also a huge Brown supporter. We are on opposite sides of the political spectrum and we both are unapologetic about our stances. The one thing he has done for the last 25 years is take an argument that he is having off-forum and project it into a thread. Or sarcasm. He goofed badly. I guarantee on my life that Sage was a lefty-union goon-pro LGBT-pro racial equality before most posters even had any concept. And he has lived it. Damned lefty, anyway.

Unlike the earlier projections that were through August 4, the most recent projections are through October 1, and also assume that almost everything (including schools) will be open by September 1.  You can see that their "social distancing" is basically back to normal in the latter stages of the projection.  

If you look deeper into their data, they show loads of increases in deaths in the later stages of the projection.  

Keeping it in an apples-to-apples comparison with the previous projections, they have the number at 149,000 deaths by August 4 (the earliest projections assumed "full social distancing through May 31").  

Oregon's numbers still look good!  We have the 5th lowest deaths/population by state in the nation.  

The daily deaths are still going down nationwide.  The last 7 days averaged just over 700 deaths per day nationwide, which was down nearly 15% from the week prior, and is less than 1/3 of the daily deaths at the peak in late April.  

Will be interesting to see how much changes by the time schools are scheduled to start back up.  

Thanks?