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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 29, 2019 12:38:00 GMT -8
Looking at the season stats, of players that played at least 100 minutes, the players with the best +/- per 100 possessions were: 1. Kelley +23.3 2. Tres +14.9 3. Rakocevic +12.6 4. Ethan +7.5 5. Stevie +2.7 6. Washington +2.0 7. Vernon +1.6 8. Reichle -12.5 9. Hollins -16.0 Fewest points allowed per 100 possessions: 1. Kelley 98.4 2. Tres 100.9 3. Hollins 105.7 4. Stevie 105.8 5. Ethan 106.2 6. Washington 107.5 7. Rakocevic 107.9 8. Reichle 108.0 9. Vernon 110.3 Defensively, by metrics, Vernon was the biggest defensive liability. Reichle was second. The defense shined when Kelley played. It was a big mess, when he left the floor. The Vernon stats surprise me. Seems WT always brought him in when some intensity on D was needed or some sort of spark was necessary. It worked a lot of the time I thought too and I liked the make up of the 5 on the floor when he was in the game. Maybe the stats look that way because he's typically brought in when the opposition was rolling, maybe just his height disadvantage hindered his ability to play lockdown D, or maybe I'm reading too much into it.
Reichle and Hollins' numbers don't surprise me at all. The 3 position was a HUGE weakness for us this year and not one I saw coming at the beginning of the season. I had expectations for Hollins of 8-10 ppg and a good jump forward from encouraging performances last year. He still played good D most of the time (see @wsu) and is one of our more athletic guys but fixing up that 3 spot next season will be vital to their success IMO.
More stats. In conference play, of players that played at least 100 minutes, the players with the best +/- per 100 possessions were: 1. Rakocevic +16.3 2. Kelley +14.4 3. Tres +11.7 4. Vernon +5.4 5. Ethan +5.3 6. Stevie +2.4 7. Washington -8.5 8. Hollins -20.2 9. Reichle -34.5 Fewest points allowed per 100 possessions in conference: 1. Kelley 104.3 2. Tres 104.8 3. Stevie 109.4 4. Hollins 109.6 5. Washington 110.7 6. Ethan 111.0 7. Rakocevic 112.0 8. Vernon 112.3 9. Reichle 112.5 Vernon was even more of a defensive liability in conference than in non-conference, but he was the best offensive player outside of Big G and Kelley. (Big G and Kelley's offensive numbers are mostly a reflection of how big of a drop-off Washington was on offense.) I think Vernon was mostly inserted to provide a spark to the offense, not the defense. He is too small to be a great defender.
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Post by beaver94 on Mar 29, 2019 14:37:28 GMT -8
The Vernon stats surprise me. Seems WT always brought him in when some intensity on D was needed or some sort of spark was necessary. It worked a lot of the time I thought too and I liked the make up of the 5 on the floor when he was in the game. Maybe the stats look that way because he's typically brought in when the opposition was rolling, maybe just his height disadvantage hindered his ability to play lockdown D, or maybe I'm reading too much into it.
Reichle and Hollins' numbers don't surprise me at all. The 3 position was a HUGE weakness for us this year and not one I saw coming at the beginning of the season. I had expectations for Hollins of 8-10 ppg and a good jump forward from encouraging performances last year. He still played good D most of the time (see @wsu) and is one of our more athletic guys but fixing up that 3 spot next season will be vital to their success IMO.
More stats. In conference play, of players that played at least 100 minutes, the players with the best +/- per 100 possessions were: 1. Rakocevic +16.3 2. Kelley +14.4 3. Tres +11.7 4. Vernon +5.4 5. Ethan +5.3 6. Stevie +2.4 7. Washington -8.5 8. Hollins -20.2 9. Reichle -34.5 Fewest points allowed per 100 possessions in conference: 1. Kelley 104.3 2. Tres 104.8 3. Stevie 109.4 4. Hollins 109.6 5. Washington 110.7 6. Ethan 111.0 7. Rakocevic 112.0 8. Vernon 112.3 9. Reichle 112.5 Vernon was even more of a defensive liability in conference than in non-conference, but he was the best offensive player outside of Big G and Kelley. (Big G and Kelley's offensive numbers are mostly a reflection of how big of a drop-off Washington was on offense.) I think Vernon was mostly inserted to provide a spark to the offense, not the defense. He is too small to be a great defender. So why was Reichle ever in a game? Seemed like he was giving a lot of effort but it obviously didn’t have a positive effect on the game.
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Post by albanianbeav on Mar 29, 2019 20:41:18 GMT -8
The defensive intensity his teams brought the first two years is what frustrates me most about how we play now. I know he has a d-first coaching philosophy and he got those players to buy in the first two years. He has not been able to get that out of the sons, primarily STJ and TT. I honestly think ET gets it and should emerge as the best all around player of those three. It felt like he was playing in the STJ/TT shadow this year. Back to my point; if you have two guys not playing sound d it kills the defensive intensity of the rest of the team, especially when the two primary culprits are the ones jacking up all the shots. WT had quite the quandary and I don’t think he handled it well (I say bench them until they show they buy into the d. I think he was afraid to do that because what it cost him on offense.) It is easy to see why guys would transfer out of that situation. I am hopeful this was just a “sons” issue and not a “favorites” issue. It will become clearer next year and more so when TT is done. I expect ET’s senior year to be very telling and possibly a very good one if he develops like I think he will and WT can put some more talent around him. I’m still hoping that in the case of Tres, continuous foot and ankle issues have had him a step slow on defense and that he comes back healthy and at full strength. He draws enough charges that I’m pretty sure he maintains good positioning most of the time. Towards the end of the season he got to where he could jump and land again, there was a time he hit the floor every time he used the one foot to push off or land. His legs had to be messed up from the change in movement and he frankly appeared to be draggingly tired at season’s end. I know from experience how one leg or foot injury can affect other parts of your body, but he’s young and should recover. I think over reliance on the 3 coaches kids, both in minutes and schemes, has cost the team some intangible something and maybe a game or two at times. I’d like to see them at 30-32 minutes a game, as opposed to 36, this next season if possible. 5 minutes a game doesn’t sound like much, but those kids take a lot of beating over the course of a season. I think it’s a part of the late season “swoon”. The dux had Pritchard at 35 minutes a game and King right at 30, but beyond that no one was close to 30 a game for the season. I think it kept them fresher and paid off the last ten games. In their case it helps when you have 9-10 four star guys on the roster, but this next Beaver team should be the deepest yet under Tinkle. I hope you are right, but fear you are not. I do agree his foot affected him for a few weeks, but he was fine before the injury and towards the end of the season. I saw another poster indicate he is not athletic enough. I disagree. He should be able to hold his own against most 3/4s in our league. There are a couple exceptions. Tres is very athletic for 6’8”. No one can convince me he can’t stay in front of his man, and most importantly for him, find someone to block out. Beavs make the tourney next year if Tres commits to d (not sure the best stat to measure that with) and averages 6+ assists per game. It will tell me he is the on-floor leader we need, otherwise, he is just about his stats, and I’m not interested in seeing another season of that garbage. It’s a team game.
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Post by albanianbeav on Mar 29, 2019 20:56:58 GMT -8
The Vernon stats surprise me. Seems WT always brought him in when some intensity on D was needed or some sort of spark was necessary. It worked a lot of the time I thought too and I liked the make up of the 5 on the floor when he was in the game. Maybe the stats look that way because he's typically brought in when the opposition was rolling, maybe just his height disadvantage hindered his ability to play lockdown D, or maybe I'm reading too much into it.
Reichle and Hollins' numbers don't surprise me at all. The 3 position was a HUGE weakness for us this year and not one I saw coming at the beginning of the season. I had expectations for Hollins of 8-10 ppg and a good jump forward from encouraging performances last year. He still played good D most of the time (see @wsu) and is one of our more athletic guys but fixing up that 3 spot next season will be vital to their success IMO.
More stats. In conference play, of players that played at least 100 minutes, the players with the best +/- per 100 possessions were: 1. Rakocevic +16.3 2. Kelley +14.4 3. Tres +11.7 4. Vernon +5.4 5. Ethan +5.3 6. Stevie +2.4 7. Washington -8.5 8. Hollins -20.2 9. Reichle -34.5 Fewest points allowed per 100 possessions in conference: 1. Kelley 104.3 2. Tres 104.8 3. Stevie 109.4 4. Hollins 109.6 5. Washington 110.7 6. Ethan 111.0 7. Rakocevic 112.0 8. Vernon 112.3 9. Reichle 112.5 Vernon was even more of a defensive liability in conference than in non-conference, but he was the best offensive player outside of Big G and Kelley. (Big G and Kelley's offensive numbers are mostly a reflection of how big of a drop-off Washington was on offense.) I think Vernon was mostly inserted to provide a spark to the offense, not the defense. He is too small to be a great defender. I’m surprised by the Vernon numbers as well. From my perspective he was our best perimeter defender. Either something is wrong with my perspective, or there is something more behind those numbers. Maybe he was always paired with Reichle?
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Post by baseba1111 on Mar 29, 2019 21:15:04 GMT -8
More stats. In conference play, of players that played at least 100 minutes, the players with the best +/- per 100 possessions were: 1. Rakocevic +16.3 2. Kelley +14.4 3. Tres +11.7 4. Vernon +5.4 5. Ethan +5.3 6. Stevie +2.4 7. Washington -8.5 8. Hollins -20.2 9. Reichle -34.5 Fewest points allowed per 100 possessions in conference: 1. Kelley 104.3 2. Tres 104.8 3. Stevie 109.4 4. Hollins 109.6 5. Washington 110.7 6. Ethan 111.0 7. Rakocevic 112.0 8. Vernon 112.3 9. Reichle 112.5 Vernon was even more of a defensive liability in conference than in non-conference, but he was the best offensive player outside of Big G and Kelley. (Big G and Kelley's offensive numbers are mostly a reflection of how big of a drop-off Washington was on offense.) I think Vernon was mostly inserted to provide a spark to the offense, not the defense. He is too small to be a great defender. I’m surprised by the Vernon numbers as well. From my perspective he was our best perimeter defender. Either something is wrong with my perspective, or there is something more behind those numbers. Maybe he was always paired with Reichle? Another completely bogus stat. Tell me how they assign opponent points scored to players in a zone 90% of the time? Your perspective is just fine.
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Post by blastingsand on Mar 29, 2019 21:56:58 GMT -8
That's the freaking point. It was a better than expected season because the pac12 sucked this year, not because of Wayn's coaching ability. If it was more competitive, Tinkle's team would have finished right where they were predicted. Really, so it had absolutely nothing to do with our performance.....only everyone elses. Right. So he gets no credit for beating a uo team twice that is now in the sweet 16? Some of the other teams were not as good as expected, but we still beat a handful of teams that had a lot more raw talent than our team has. That says something about his coaching, doesn't it. Boy if UO ended up going to the final four would that have been grounds to give him an additional extension? While it was still amazing for the fan base, the context of that sweep was that we were 2nd in the Pac-12 and playing like the 2nd place team, while Oregon was playing 10th in the Pac-12 and possibly worse. IF the civil war games were the last week of the season it would be a different story as we saw from their final games against UW. Or are we just going to overlook these details just to pick facts to hold Tinkle here even longer?
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 29, 2019 21:57:47 GMT -8
I’m surprised by the Vernon numbers as well. From my perspective he was our best perimeter defender. Either something is wrong with my perspective, or there is something more behind those numbers. Maybe he was always paired with Reichle? Another completely bogus stat. Tell me how they assign opponent points scored to players in a zone 90% of the time? Your perspective is just fine. Stats are stats. I think that Vernon's utility is very limited in defense. Can you really play anything other than zone with him in?
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Post by baseba1111 on Mar 29, 2019 23:42:25 GMT -8
Another completely bogus stat. Tell me how they assign opponent points scored to players in a zone 90% of the time? Your perspective is just fine. Stats are stats. I think that Vernon's utility is very limited in defense. Can you really play anything other than zone with him in? Does WT play anything else but zone with Tres, Stevie, Hollins, Reichle, etc?
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 30, 2019 20:09:52 GMT -8
Stats are stats. I think that Vernon's utility is very limited in defense. Can you really play anything other than zone with him in? Does WT play anything else but zone with Tres, Stevie, Hollins, Reichle, etc? I do not think that he played anything other than zone with Reichle and Vernon, as I think both are very limited defensively, but I know that WT would play man with Hollins on the court.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Mar 31, 2019 6:31:50 GMT -8
Whichever defense we play, it's clear Tres Tinkle's plus-minutes offensive and defensive numbers were clearly a cut above the others who played full-time minutes. That has to sting some on this board who happily diminish his talent or who say we will be better off without him.
It is far, far from a completely bogus stat. Hockey judges its players in a similar fashion and it's considered one of the most important metrics in the sport. How many points/goals are scored when you are on the court/floor compared to how many points/goals scored when you are not (at even strength in hockey). Pretty cut-and-dried.
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rafer
Sophomore
Posts: 1,604
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Post by rafer on Mar 31, 2019 7:55:46 GMT -8
So far, Wayne's Pac-12 wins are 7, 8, 9, 10, and 1. Wayne's total wins are 16, 17, 18, 19, and 5. Which one is not like the other? If you assume a normal distribution, winning five games 2016-17 is outside of the 99.99% confidence interval, i.e. there is less than a 1 in 10,000 chance that five wins is a naturally-occurring event. Or, to put that another way, assuming a normal distribution, you would expect to see another five-win season in 10,000 years. Including 2016-17 is purposefully included to skew Wayne's otherwise very positive results (at least when compared to all other coaches of the past quarter century). Removing 2016-17, Wayne was 36-27 with GPII and 34-29 without GPII. Wayne was exactly 17-19 in Pac-12 play with GPII and 17-19 in Pac-12 play without GPII. Wayne went 1-2 in the Pac-12 Tournament with GPII and 1-2 in the Pac-12 Tournament without GPII. In non-conference play, the difference appears to be four points in two games over the past two years. As for his pros and cons, it seems like he does not do a great job at game preparation (for whatever reason) but is very good at making in-game adjustments. The team was heady and tended to make very good use of timeouts during the bulk of the game. The end of games sometimes turned into a hot mess, which should mostly fall in Tinkle's lap. That UCLA game was a great example of how to not make the postseason. In my opinion, Tinkle is an above average (although not great) recruiter, who has shown an ability to find diamonds in the rough. In my opinion, Tinkle is an above average (although not great) developer of talent. There are better coaches out there for sure, but the odds of the current AD finding one are very close to 0%. I would much rather watch a competitive 7-11 with flashes of 10-8 or 11-7 than the record-setting historically ugly basketball that we saw the quarter century before Tinkle showed up. Okay, so you're happy and content with Tinkle being an average coach who consistently loses 60% of the conference games he coaches! That 16-17 team that you like to dismiss had multiple 4* players. Tinkle played the first 6, then missed the rest of the season. Thompson missed the first 7 games, but then played the rest of the season. Eubanks and McLaughlin played the entire seasons. That is four 4* players on a team that won 5 games. Tinkle completely relied on GP2 and was not prepared after he graduated. Tres got hurt and Wayne had no backup plan. He's an above average developer of talent? How? Other than working to increase his son's stat sheet, what has he done for the big men on the roster? Kelly, Washington, and big G were a combined 3-6 7pts against Colorado in the tournament. THE BENCH SCORED 2 POINTS THAT GAME! Not once this entire season did someone NOT named Tinkle or Thompson have the high score of the game. That is developing talent? Ok, coaching guru, who do you hire to meet you demand of dancing year 1?? Dont beg off, give us a name and cost, plus recruiting rankings!!
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Post by albanianbeav on Mar 31, 2019 8:30:12 GMT -8
Whichever defense we play, it's clear Tres Tinkle's plus-minutes offensive and defensive numbers were clearly a cut above the others who played full-time minutes. That has to sting some on this board who happily diminish his talent or who say we will be better off without him. It is far, far from a completely bogus stat. Hockey judges its players in a similar fashion and it's considered one of the most important metrics in the sport. How many points/goals are scored when you are on the court/floor compared to how many points/goals scored when you are not (at even strength in hockey). Pretty cut-and-dried. It seems for Tres the stat is somewhat bogus since he plays the entire game. I would also suggest these stats are much better for hockey, where there is continual rotations, and assists are a necessary part of the game (I am far from an expert on this stat. I started following it recently in the NBA and it intrigues me, but so much plays into it I’m not 100% sold on its meaningfulness. I would love to hear what I’m missing). I’m not a Tres hater, but would say I do not need stats to tell me he could play better d. It is about hustle, intensity, and communication. He is athletic enough to be a great defender. He is not a great defender yet.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Mar 31, 2019 8:35:59 GMT -8
So far, Wayne's Pac-12 wins are 7, 8, 9, 10, and 1. Wayne's total wins are 16, 17, 18, 19, and 5. Which one is not like the other? If you assume a normal distribution, winning five games 2016-17 is outside of the 99.99% confidence interval, i.e. there is less than a 1 in 10,000 chance that five wins is a naturally-occurring event. Or, to put that another way, assuming a normal distribution, you would expect to see another five-win season in 10,000 years. Including 2016-17 is purposefully included to skew Wayne's otherwise very positive results (at least when compared to all other coaches of the past quarter century). Removing 2016-17, Wayne was 36-27 with GPII and 34-29 without GPII. Wayne was exactly 17-19 in Pac-12 play with GPII and 17-19 in Pac-12 play without GPII. Wayne went 1-2 in the Pac-12 Tournament with GPII and 1-2 in the Pac-12 Tournament without GPII. In non-conference play, the difference appears to be four points in two games over the past two years. As for his pros and cons, it seems like he does not do a great job at game preparation (for whatever reason) but is very good at making in-game adjustments. The team was heady and tended to make very good use of timeouts during the bulk of the game. The end of games sometimes turned into a hot mess, which should mostly fall in Tinkle's lap. That UCLA game was a great example of how to not make the postseason. In my opinion, Tinkle is an above average (although not great) recruiter, who has shown an ability to find diamonds in the rough. In my opinion, Tinkle is an above average (although not great) developer of talent. There are better coaches out there for sure, but the odds of the current AD finding one are very close to 0%. I would much rather watch a competitive 7-11 with flashes of 10-8 or 11-7 than the record-setting historically ugly basketball that we saw the quarter century before Tinkle showed up. Okay, so you're happy and content with Tinkle being an average coach who consistently loses 60% of the conference games he coaches! That 16-17 team that you like to dismiss had multiple 4* players. Tinkle played the first 6, then missed the rest of the season. Thompson missed the first 7 games, but then played the rest of the season. Eubanks and McLaughlin played the entire seasons. That is four 4* players on a team that won 5 games. Tinkle completely relied on GP2 and was not prepared after he graduated. Tres got hurt and Wayne had no backup plan. He's an above average developer of talent? How? Other than working to increase his son's stat sheet, what has he done for the big men on the roster? Kelly, Washington, and big G were a combined 3-6 7pts against Colorado in the tournament. THE BENCH SCORED 2 POINTS THAT GAME! Not once this entire season did someone NOT named Tinkle or Thompson have the high score of the game. That is developing talent? While this thread is still going... Kelley was tied for most points scored in the USC game. Basically Tres and the Thompson brothers dominated the lead scoring “duties”, how often do teams typically have more than three kids as top scorers?
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Post by beavheart on Apr 1, 2019 9:59:47 GMT -8
I voted for 1 season, but mostly because I think they will make the tournament next year.
With a healthy Tres, development of the younger guys, and the much needed infusion of some outside scoring with the incoming class I can see them getting there. As much as I respect and appreciate what Stevie did while he was here I actually think his production will be addition by subtraction. No longer will there be 1 player on the team that continually tries to put the team on his back. No more hucking up threes on an off night by one guy. The scoring duties will need to be shared and and a group effort should be way more consistent and sustainable.
I can see guys like Kelley, Hollins, WW and Vernon taking big steps forward, but the real X factor for me is Gianni Hunt. GH brings some athleticism and basketball IQ to the PG position that this team hasn't had since GP2. Finally, this team will have a facilitator. I expect Vernon and Hunt to share the point duties, which should free Ethan up, and I wouldn't be surprised if Hunt is starting by the start of conference play.
I also think Reichle will really have to scrap for PT behind Tres with the incoming class. I honestly don't know how anyone can look at what this team will have on paper and not see improvement coming. The team has shown improvement, in spite of injuries, and a variety of player issues. With a Tres led team, and more of a team effort I will honestly be surprised if they don't make a serious push for the post season next year.
If everyone comes back, stays healthy next year, and they don't take a step forward I will eat my hat.
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Post by osufan2k on Apr 1, 2019 10:27:37 GMT -8
Okay, so you're happy and content with Tinkle being an average coach who consistently loses 60% of the conference games he coaches! That 16-17 team that you like to dismiss had multiple 4* players. Tinkle played the first 6, then missed the rest of the season. Thompson missed the first 7 games, but then played the rest of the season. Eubanks and McLaughlin played the entire seasons. That is four 4* players on a team that won 5 games. Tinkle completely relied on GP2 and was not prepared after he graduated. Tres got hurt and Wayne had no backup plan. He's an above average developer of talent? How? Other than working to increase his son's stat sheet, what has he done for the big men on the roster? Kelly, Washington, and big G were a combined 3-6 7pts against Colorado in the tournament. THE BENCH SCORED 2 POINTS THAT GAME! Not once this entire season did someone NOT named Tinkle or Thompson have the high score of the game. That is developing talent? how often do teams typically have more than three kids as top scorers? Apparently often... Different high scorers this season... OSU - 3 UCLA - 4 WSU - 4 ASU - 6 USC - 6 Cal - 6 Stanford - 6 UW - 6 AZ - 7 Colorado - 7 Utah - 7 Oregon - 8
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