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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 29, 2018 13:02:31 GMT -8
Watch yourself.. using math to prove your internet message board argument could result in a mandatory timeout. Please refrain from all logic and use only emotion and unprovable statistics in the future I remember being 2-0 in Omaha last year with no reliable next starter. I did not like how that played out, and there was no 105 RPI team to take a flier on in that particular tourney. I remember being 2-0 in Omaha last year with Jake freakin Thompson on a full six days' rest on the mound. If the umps call Kwan's hit correctly or Casey challenges, that game plays out differently. Maybe you're referring to the next game, game 13, the game with two different strike zones. Casey should have saved Fehmel for game 1 of the Championship Series against Florida rather than rushing him back to pitch against LSU. Most of the pitchers on the roster would have coped with that nebulous strike zone better than Fehmel. It is not really in him to adjust what he does to fit a wildly different strike zone. Jordan Britton had gone six innings and allowed three hits and two runs in his last start. He would have been a decent choice. Rasmussen, Mulholland, and Tweedt were all available to relieve, if things got dicey. |
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Post by Judge Smails on May 29, 2018 13:07:27 GMT -8
Yep... got the point... it doesn't matter who you play when. No coach, no fan with any glimmer of baseball acumen thinks 2-0 and 1-1 is the same... which was your initial point/ statement. Use whatever argumentative BS you want. At 1-1 you have to win 4 of 5... and 3 straight. At 2-0... you win 1 straight with very rested staff... or worst case 1 of 2 vs a team with a depleted staff where OSU's game 1 starter could contribute. I guess basic facts can seem pedantic when you don't think a situation through, don't know the game, never been in the situation. Ha... So name call away... but, your claim that 2-0 vs 1-1 with Luke and Bruce used makes the rest moot. Hmmmm, two best used up to win one more... or have to win 3 straight?🤔 My point is simple...I believe it is easier to beat Northwestern St once with Sunday crew, vs beating LSU twice with some iteration of a Sunday crew.
Again, we were 2-0 last year in Omaha and got smoked. My overwhelming feeling about our Friday match up is that we will be 1-0 after we play NW State regardless of who we pitch, and if we are not than there is really no need to get excited about the next few weeks anyway.
This type of calculation has always been a part of the regional rotation discussion around college baseball as a whole, not just here in Corvallis. It is just a more important question for us as most teams of our caliber are not so vulnerable in their third slot.
So, you are saying Madrigal for game #1? You said we will win regardless of who we pitch. Seems like we roll Nick out there and save all of our pitchers. |
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Post by jrbeavo on May 29, 2018 13:11:26 GMT -8
I remember being 2-0 in Omaha last year with no reliable next starter. I did not like how that played out, and there was no 105 RPI team to take a flier on in that particular tourney. I remember being 2-0 in Omaha last year with Jake freakin Thompson on a full six days' rest on the mound. If the umps call Kwan's hit correctly or Casey challenges, that game plays out differently. Maybe you're referring to the next game, game 13, the game with two different strike zones. Casey should have saved Fehmel for game 1 of the Championship Series against Florida rather than rushing him back to pitch against LSU. Most of the pitchers on the roster would have coped with that nebulous strike zone better than Fehmel. It is not really in him to adjust what he does to fit a wildly different strike zone. Jordan Britton had gone six innings and allowed three hits and two runs in his last start. He would have been a decent choice. Rasmussen, Mulholland, and Tweedt were all available to relieve, if things got dicey. You're right, I was obviously mistaken there. And I agree that the Kwan call was a difference maker.
My general point is that 2-0 is important, but sometimes it matters how you get there. Let's face it, last years team never figured out how to adjust to having the best pitcher in college suddenly yanked out of the line up. They persevered, and were tough...but it caught up with them.
there is no mystery about this team..we have two reliable starters, and a very questionable pathway for our third. We regularly handily beat mid week, lower tier competition (who I assume, at least on occasion would be using a front line starter) using the balance of our staff. I don't think it is possible to lose Friday, and therefore I love going into the next two with Luke and Fehmel lined up.
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Post by jrbeavo on May 29, 2018 13:14:44 GMT -8
My point is simple...I believe it is easier to beat Northwestern St once with Sunday crew, vs beating LSU twice with some iteration of a Sunday crew.
Again, we were 2-0 last year in Omaha and got smoked. My overwhelming feeling about our Friday match up is that we will be 1-0 after we play NW State regardless of who we pitch, and if we are not than there is really no need to get excited about the next few weeks anyway.
This type of calculation has always been a part of the regional rotation discussion around college baseball as a whole, not just here in Corvallis. It is just a more important question for us as most teams of our caliber are not so vulnerable in their third slot.
So, you are saying Madrigal for game #1? You said we will win regardless of who we pitch. Seems like we roll Nick out there and save all of our pitchers. No, because then we would have to play a left handed second baseman and that would just be weird.
In my first sentence I mentioned using our Sunday crew, in my second sentence I said we would be 1-0 regardless of who we pitch (I had reduced the universe of possible pitchers to Fehmel, Luke and our Sunday guys).
But it was really funny.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 29, 2018 13:15:03 GMT -8
Yep... got the point... it doesn't matter who you play when. No coach, no fan with any glimmer of baseball acumen thinks 2-0 and 1-1 is the same... which was your initial point/ statement. Use whatever argumentative BS you want. At 1-1 you have to win 4 of 5... and 3 straight. At 2-0... you win 1 straight with very rested staff... or worst case 1 of 2 vs a team with a depleted staff where OSU's game 1 starter could contribute. I guess basic facts can seem pedantic when you don't think a situation through, don't know the game, never been in the situation. Ha... So name call away... but, your claim that 2-0 vs 1-1 with Luke and Bruce used makes the rest moot. Hmmmm, two best used up to win one more... or have to win 3 straight?🤔 My point is simple...I believe it is easier to beat Northwestern St once with Sunday crew, vs beating LSU twice with some iteration of a Sunday crew.
Again, we were 2-0 last year in Omaha and got smoked. My overwhelming feeling about our Friday match up is that we will be 1-0 after we play NW State regardless of who we pitch, and if we are not than there is really no need to get excited about the next few weeks anyway.
This type of calculation has always been a part of the regional rotation discussion around college baseball as a whole, not just here in Corvallis. It is just a more important question for us as most teams of our caliber are not so vulnerable in their third slot.
Northwestern State is a very capable four-seed, a much better team than last year's four-seed, Holy Cross. They are going to throw their best pitcher against Oregon State. Last year, Casey threw Jake against Holy Cross. Casey has to pitch Bryce or Luke next, because he knows that the hole that Oregon State would have to crawl out of, if the Beavers lose the first game, would be roughly the size of the Grand Canyon. Also, if Oregon State goes 2-0, LSU (let's say it's LSU, because you indicated that it would be LSU) would be on its fourth-best pitcher by the time they get back to play Oregon State's third-best pitcher. And the Monday game would be the Tigers' fifth-best pitcher against the Beavers' fourth best. And LSU does not really even have a fourth pitcher. In the second-to-last mid-week game, the Tigers threw Caleb Gilbert, who is 3-5 with a 5.37 ERA and a .336 BAA. Gilbert only lasted 1 1/3 against McNeese State. If Oregon State goes 2-0 and plays LSU, I would bet you a cool grand that there is a Corvallis Super Regional a couple of days later. I do not know, if it would be pretty, but I am quite certain the Beavers finish off the Tigers. LSU simply does not have that many quality starters. |
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Post by Judge Smails on May 29, 2018 13:16:57 GMT -8
I remember being 2-0 in Omaha last year with Jake freakin Thompson on a full six days' rest on the mound. If the umps call Kwan's hit correctly or Casey challenges, that game plays out differently. Maybe you're referring to the next game, game 13, the game with two different strike zones. Casey should have saved Fehmel for game 1 of the Championship Series against Florida rather than rushing him back to pitch against LSU. Most of the pitchers on the roster would have coped with that nebulous strike zone better than Fehmel. It is not really in him to adjust what he does to fit a wildly different strike zone. Jordan Britton had gone six innings and allowed three hits and two runs in his last start. He would have been a decent choice. Rasmussen, Mulholland, and Tweedt were all available to relieve, if things got dicey. You're right, I was obviously mistaken there. And I agree that the Kwan call was a difference maker.
My general point is that 2-0 is important, but sometimes it matters how you get there. Let's face it, last years team never figured out how to adjust to having the best pitcher in college suddenly yanked out of the line up. They persevered, and were tough...but it caught up with them.
there is no mystery about this team..we have two reliable starters, and a very questionable pathway for our third. We regularly handily beat mid week, lower tier competition (who I assume, at least on occasion would be using a front line starter) using the balance of our staff. I don't think it is possible to lose Friday, and therefore I love going into the next two with Luke and Fehmel lined up.
I hope our team doesn't think that. If so, we're in trouble. |
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Post by jrbeavo on May 29, 2018 13:30:38 GMT -8
So based on what you are all saying, are you predicting a standard rotation of LH, RF...then Abel or whomever? Do we flip Bryce and Luke? From what I can tell, they are a fairly weak hitting team with regard to average and power. It would be nice to be able to get our starter (assuming LH or BF) out at 85 pitches or so.
Seems like we don't give any consistent run support to our Sunday guy either for some reason...not sure if that is pressing knowing how important run production is?
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Post by lotrader on May 29, 2018 13:43:57 GMT -8
One thing no one has pointed out (unless I missed it) is that LSU saw Bryce 2 times in the college world series a year ago. I think we want to throw different pitchers at LSU. In last year's CWS, LSU had Bryce dialed in game 2. I would start Bryce game 1, believing LSU will win their 1st game. Assuming we win our 1st game, we throw Luke at LSU game 2, and Abel, game 3.
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Post by baseba1111 on May 29, 2018 14:17:31 GMT -8
One thing no one has pointed out (unless I missed it) is that LSU saw Bryce 2 times in the college world series a year ago. I think we want to throw different pitchers at LSU. In last year's CWS, LSU had Bryce dialed in game 2. I would start Bryce game 1, believing LSU will win their 1st game. Assuming we win our 1st game, we throw Luke at LSU game 2, and Abel, game 3. Assumptions are huge here... 1) LSU wins their game... 2) this is the same LSU team that saw Bryce Every team has connections and has scouting on pitchers and hitters. The point being, if Bryce is on he's fine against anyone. I mean he is 9-1 and no one was worried about him tossing vs Furd, UCLA, Zona who look to be more solid top to bottom than LSU or SDSU and have seen Bryce 3 straight years. LSU is not a lock and OSU can't play their game based on what might happen in the other game. I believe Bryce and Luke were flipped once before this season... Luke didn't fair well at Zona in a 15-4 loss. Could PC flip them? Sure. But, it won't be because he "might" see LSU. I don't want to dig to find BAA for LH and RH, but Bryce is fairly effective vs hitters from both sides of the plate. Of course if the plate umpire is squeezing and only calling pitch locations 2-6 he's less effective, but so is any pitcher who has to bring it to the heart of the plate. |
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Post by vhalum92 on May 29, 2018 15:01:52 GMT -8
Brace yourself... but Pat usually sticks with the normal rotation. I know you know this isn't true. I don't know what he's going to do this regional, but he's often mixed up the rotation. And Further, Fehmel first is not the "normal rotation". Ahh... but it is his day to pitch, with a full week of rest/ a full week since he last pitched. You can take one line from my post and pick on it all you want. I was referring to the OP that we should pitch Abel or a Sunday guy on Friday. Let me close this for everyone... it doesn't matter what we think. Our Head Coach who is a 2x National Champion will make the decision. He also had access to information we don't.... who is injured, who is pitching well leading up to the game during there side work etc... That was my main point, it isn't up to us. Casey will make the decision and we sit and cheer on the Beavs to a Victory. That is all. |
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Post by jefframp on May 30, 2018 6:45:23 GMT -8
I have gone on record as proposing that we flip our first two starters but I do see a downside to that in a possible Corvallis Super Regional where Luke would have one less day of rest in that scenario. As Baseba1111 noted: "Bryce and Luke were flipped once before this season... Luke didn't fair well at Zona in a 15-4 loss" and I had forgotten about that as well. How well did LH pitch the next week with one day less of rest? On the other hand Bryce would then have 8 days of rest for the Supers.
I'm sure glad I don't have to make these decisions. Too complicated for me!
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Post by lotrader on May 30, 2018 7:38:49 GMT -8
I know you know this isn't true. I don't know what he's going to do this regional, but he's often mixed up the rotation. And Further, Fehmel first is not the "normal rotation". Ahh... but it is his day to pitch, with a full week of rest/ a full week since he last pitched. You can take one line from my post and pick on it all you want. I was referring to the OP that we should pitch Abel or a Sunday guy on Friday. Let me close this for everyone... it doesn't matter what we think. Our Head Coach who is a 2x National Champion will make the decision. He also had access to information we don't.... who is injured, who is pitching well leading up to the game during there side work etc... That was my main point, it isn't up to us. Casey will make the decision and we sit and cheer on the Beavs to a Victory. That is all. |
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Post by lotrader on May 30, 2018 7:43:30 GMT -8
baseba1111: It does matter, a great deal, that LSU has actually hit against Bryce twice in the last 12 months. Actually having success in a real game vs watching video of Bryce makes a HUGE difference (for LSU, and, even Bryce). Someone pointed out that since the LSU game will end before Casey has to make a final decision is great for us.
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2018 8:26:26 GMT -8
IMO, no sense wasting either Heimlich's or Fehmel's arms on that first game. Save 'em for LSU, SDSU, etc. Abel/Eisert/Mulholland should be able to handle game #1. The 106th ranked team in the country is not likely to present an unsurmountable challenge for those guys. exactly. Keep this thread going through sunday at least. |
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Post by beaverintheberg on May 30, 2018 8:35:20 GMT -8
I'm fine with Bryce pitching the opener. Not the Sunday bunch - they have inspired no confidence as of late.
Beat Northwestern - don't overthink this!!
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