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Post by Judge Smails on May 29, 2018 9:47:04 GMT -8
Brace yourself... but Pat usually sticks with the normal rotation. I can see him having Bryce go on Friday and Luke on Saturday, but I'd be shocked if we go with Abel or the Relievers on Friday night. The losers path is just too tough to risk a loss on Friday night. Our problems would go from who is #3, to who is #4, #5. etc... if we lose at any time. I agree. It will be Luke or Bryce. I'm thinking he will probably throw Bryce.
He will not take that chance with the inconsistencies from our 3rd starter.
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Post by jrbeavo on May 29, 2018 9:52:49 GMT -8
Brace yourself... but Pat usually sticks with the normal rotation. I can see him having Bryce go on Friday and Luke on Saturday, but I'd be shocked if we go with Abel or the Relievers on Friday night. The losers path is just too tough to risk a loss on Friday night. Our problems would go from who is #3, to who is #4, #5. etc... if we lose at any time. I agree. It will be Luke or Bryce. I'm thinking he will probably throw Bryce.
He will not take that chance with the inconsistencies from our 3rd starter.
Okay...so let's assume you're right, you would agree that our "Sunday" staff has to win a game at some point for us to advance, right? Now you have the opportunity to try to get that win from the weakest team in the field, and then you have strength to close out the regional. As I have said before, if we win this regional we are 99% certain to do it 3-0. Being 2-0 is really no more important than being 1-1 if you have burned Luke and Bryce. |
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Post by Judge Smails on May 29, 2018 9:59:34 GMT -8
I agree. It will be Luke or Bryce. I'm thinking he will probably throw Bryce.
He will not take that chance with the inconsistencies from our 3rd starter.
Okay...so let's assume you're right, you would agree that our "Sunday" staff has to win a game at some point for us to advance, right? Now you have the opportunity to try to get that win from the weakest team in the field, and then you have strength to close out the regional. As I have said before, if we win this regional we are 99% certain to do it 3-0. Being 2-0 is really no more important than being 1-1 if you have burned Luke and Bryce. OK...but if you start our 3rd starter the 1st game and lose, even if Bryce and Luke are lights out the next 2 games you would need to rely on our 4th & 5th starters to come back and win the series. Relying on our Sunday starter to win one game is fine. Relying on our Monday & Tuesday starters to win 2 games is not what we want.
You have to win the first game.
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Post by jefframp on May 29, 2018 10:11:50 GMT -8
The real problem is that I wasn't even drinking beer when I screwed that up. Yep. Just a brain freeze on getting upside down Maybe it was the huckleberry wine you been sipping on. I've got some kiwi wine for you that is out of this world.  |
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Post by baseba1111 on May 29, 2018 10:12:45 GMT -8
I agree. It will be Luke or Bryce. I'm thinking he will probably throw Bryce.
He will not take that chance with the inconsistencies from our 3rd starter.
Okay...so let's assume you're right, you would agree that our "Sunday" staff has to win a game at some point for us to advance, right? Now you have the opportunity to try to get that win from the weakest team in the field, and then you have strength to close out the regional. As I have said before, if we win this regional we are 99% certain to do it 3-0. Being 2-0 is really no more important than being 1-1 if you have burned Luke and Bryce. Wait... what? 2-0... you need one win to move on... 1-1... you need THREE wins... A HUGE BIG LARGE VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE... |
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Post by avidbeaver on May 29, 2018 10:28:59 GMT -8
I think it would be a huge gamble to go with someone other than Fehmel or Heimlich in the first game. Cosidering how the third starter has been going, I don't see Casey doing it. If you get down early in the first game using someone else, you run the risk of your team pressing. Also, you give the other team the thought that they can win. The first game is so important. Like someone else posted, you have to win 5 instead of 3 if you lose. In my opinion, not worth the risk at all. I don't care if it is Fehmel or Heimlich. The bottom line is don't mess it up and lose the first game.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2018 10:40:39 GMT -8
I think it would be a huge gamble to go with someone other than Fehmel or Heimlich in the first game. Cosidering how the third starter has been going, I don't see Casey doing it. If you get down early in the first game using someone else, you run the risk of your team pressing. Also, you give the other team the thought that they can win. The first game is so important. Like someone else posted, you have to win 5 instead of 3 if you lose. In my opinion, not worth the risk at all. I don't care if it is Fehmel or Heimlich. The bottom line is don't mess it up and lose the first game. also the quicker you pitch Luke (and get him out of the game) the sooner you get him back on the mound against somebody good? |
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Post by jrbeavo on May 29, 2018 10:44:34 GMT -8
Okay...so let's assume you're right, you would agree that our "Sunday" staff has to win a game at some point for us to advance, right? Now you have the opportunity to try to get that win from the weakest team in the field, and then you have strength to close out the regional. As I have said before, if we win this regional we are 99% certain to do it 3-0. Being 2-0 is really no more important than being 1-1 if you have burned Luke and Bryce. Wait... what? 2-0... you need one win to move on... 1-1... you need THREE wins... A HUGE BIG LARGE VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE... Your critical thinking skills have proven to be solid over the years some have to believe you're not reading my reasoning here . The point about being 2-0 and 1-1 was said to make a point...which I presume you get. LSU has a much deeper starting staff than we do. If you waste Luke or Bryce against NWst, then you have to beat (likely) LSU at least once and probably twice with our remaining staff. If we understand they have to win a SINGLE game...i like our chances in game 1. You may not agree, but don't act as if you're not getting the point. Ease off your pedantic tendencies |
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Post by baseba1111 on May 29, 2018 10:46:38 GMT -8
I think it would be a huge gamble to go with someone other than Fehmel or Heimlich in the first game. Cosidering how the third starter has been going, I don't see Casey doing it. If you get down early in the first game using someone else, you run the risk of your team pressing. Also, you give the other team the thought that they can win. The first game is so important. Like someone else posted, you have to win 5 instead of 3 if you lose. In my opinion, not worth the risk at all. I don't care if it is Fehmel or Heimlich. The bottom line is don't mess it up and lose the first game. Play 5, win 4 if you lose one of the first two... but, your point is correct. Another factor... in the postseason pitchers are asked to go above and beyond. You go with your best in game 1. You hope the bats and D show up to have a low pitch count. A guy like Luke then can be used to close out a game 3, or in game 4 if needed. If you wait to use your #1 then he's effectively useless the rest of the regional. Bryce is not a sure thing. Typically teams from lesser conferences have seen pitchers similar to Bryce often. Like Luke, probably not once all season. You go with what brought you. You use Luke, then Bryce. If you can't advance at 2-0 with the rest of your staff then your not Omaha ready or worthy. Guys will step up or OSU stays home. |
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Post by abureid on May 29, 2018 10:58:51 GMT -8
Okay...so let's assume you're right, you would agree that our "Sunday" staff has to win a game at some point for us to advance, right? Now you have the opportunity to try to get that win from the weakest team in the field, and then you have strength to close out the regional. As I have said before, if we win this regional we are 99% certain to do it 3-0. Being 2-0 is really no more important than being 1-1 if you have burned Luke and Bryce. Wait... what? 2-0... you need one win to move on... 1-1... you need THREE wins... A HUGE BIG LARGE VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE... Watch yourself.. using math to prove your internet message board argument could result in a mandatory timeout. Please refrain from all logic and use only emotion and unprovable statistics in the future |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 29, 2018 11:55:31 GMT -8
You go with what brought you. You use Luke, then Bryce. If you can't advance at 2-0 with the rest of your staff then your not Omaha ready or worthy. I'd go with Bryce and then Luke ... but maybe that's just me. Northwestern State is right-hand heavy. I would throw Bryce. Win or lose, Oregon State plays LSU or San Diego State on Saturday. I would throw Luke against whichever one Oregon State plays on Saturday. I don't want to see Luke again until game 1 or 2 of the Corvallis Super Regional. Casey threw Jake and then Luke in last year's regional. I personally am concerned about this Corvallis Regional, because I think that seeds 2-4 are all a notch or two better than last year's Corvallis Regional. I really want Luke in the hole to use against LSU or San Diego State. Hopefully, Oregon State will just win the first three, and Luke or Bryce can rest up for the Corvallis Super Regional. |
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Post by blueheron on May 29, 2018 12:02:20 GMT -8
Brace yourself... but Pat usually sticks with the normal rotation. I know you know this isn't true. I don't know what he's going to do this regional, but he's often mixed up the rotation. And Further, Fehmel first is not the "normal rotation". |
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Post by jrbeavo on May 29, 2018 12:44:04 GMT -8
Wait... what? 2-0... you need one win to move on... 1-1... you need THREE wins... A HUGE BIG LARGE VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE... Watch yourself.. using math to prove your internet message board argument could result in a mandatory timeout. Please refrain from all logic and use only emotion and unprovable statistics in the future I remember being 2-0 in Omaha last year with no reliable next starter. I did not like how that played out, and there was no 105 RPI team to take a flier on in that particular tourney. |
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Post by baseba1111 on May 29, 2018 12:48:42 GMT -8
Wait... what? 2-0... you need one win to move on... 1-1... you need THREE wins... A HUGE BIG LARGE VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE... Your critical thinking skills have proven to be solid over the years some have to believe you're not reading my reasoning here . The point about being 2-0 and 1-1 was said to make a point...which I presume you get. LSU has a much deeper starting staff than we do. If you waste Luke or Bryce against NWst, then you have to beat (likely) LSU at least once and probably twice with our remaining staff. If we understand they have to win a SINGLE game...i like our chances in game 1. You may not agree, but don't act as if you're not getting the point. Ease off your pedantic tendencies Yep... got the point... it doesn't matter who you play when. No coach, no fan with any glimmer of baseball acumen thinks 2-0 and 1-1 is the same... which was your initial point/ statement. Use whatever argumentative BS you want. At 1-1 you have to win 4 of 5... and 3 straight. At 2-0... you win 1 straight with very rested staff... or worst case 1 of 2 vs a team with a depleted staff where OSU's game 1 starter could contribute. I guess basic facts can seem pedantic when you don't think a situation through, don't know the game, never been in the situation. Ha... So name call away... but, your claim that 2-0 vs 1-1 with Luke and Bruce used makes the rest moot. Hmmmm, two best used up to win one more... or have to win 3 straight?🤔 |
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Post by jrbeavo on May 29, 2018 13:01:39 GMT -8
Your critical thinking skills have proven to be solid over the years some have to believe you're not reading my reasoning here . The point about being 2-0 and 1-1 was said to make a point...which I presume you get. LSU has a much deeper starting staff than we do. If you waste Luke or Bryce against NWst, then you have to beat (likely) LSU at least once and probably twice with our remaining staff. If we understand they have to win a SINGLE game...i like our chances in game 1. You may not agree, but don't act as if you're not getting the point. Ease off your pedantic tendencies Yep... got the point... it doesn't matter who you play when. No coach, no fan with any glimmer of baseball acumen thinks 2-0 and 1-1 is the same... which was your initial point/ statement. Use whatever argumentative BS you want. At 1-1 you have to win 4 of 5... and 3 straight. At 2-0... you win 1 straight with very rested staff... or worst case 1 of 2 vs a team with a depleted staff where OSU's game 1 starter could contribute. I guess basic facts can seem pedantic when you don't think a situation through, don't know the game, never been in the situation. Ha... So name call away... but, your claim that 2-0 vs 1-1 with Luke and Bruce used makes the rest moot. Hmmmm, two best used up to win one more... or have to win 3 straight?🤔 My point is simple...I believe it is easier to beat Northwestern St once with Sunday crew, vs beating LSU twice with some iteration of a Sunday crew.
Again, we were 2-0 last year in Omaha and got smoked. My overwhelming feeling about our Friday match up is that we will be 1-0 after we play NW State regardless of who we pitch, and if we are not than there is really no need to get excited about the next few weeks anyway.
This type of calculation has always been a part of the regional rotation discussion around college baseball as a whole, not just here in Corvallis. It is just a more important question for us as most teams of our caliber are not so vulnerable in their third slot.
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