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Post by vhalum92 on Jul 6, 2017 16:59:06 GMT -8
I don't know Drew personally but as much as we would welcome him back as fans lets remember he is riding a roller coaster. I can only dream/imagine I was in his shoes... I'd be disappointed that I didn't get signed/didn't get slot money, didn't get to take the next step in developing to a pro player.
It is also possible he likes college and is pushing to return for a host of reasons. We should be careful hear not to be routing for him to be snubbed by the Rays... as fans there is more to this than who we get to watch pitch at Goss next year.
That is all. Go Beavs!
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Post by 56chevy on Jul 6, 2017 18:07:30 GMT -8
Drew and his family know exactly what they are doing. On a risk reward basis, Drew is declining 800k for a legit shot to come back to OSU and be looking at 4.5 million next year at this time. All he has to do is move up 15 spots in the draft, not at all an unreasonable projection. My money would be on him to do just that. I hope he comes back, and I'll be rooting for him with every pitch he throws. The geniuses at Tampa Bay have no idea how bad they are blowing it here and it will come back to bite them. Can anyone among us tell Drew that he ought to go pro for 40% of what the industry says he is worth? It is an insult.
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Post by zeroposter on Jul 6, 2017 19:31:50 GMT -8
3rd or 4th in the PAC-12? What are you thinking? Even without Drew and Luke, we are predicted to go back to Omaha by all the College Baseball writers. Leave the weed smoking to the folks down South... I do agree on Cary and Donahue. A lot of talent in the outfield, so PT time is all about who is hitting! LOL... I do not like making predictions as they are meaningless drivel... but, promote discussion. I'd pick Stanford and UCLA over us if Drew AND Luke do not return. UCLA had an outstanding frosh class and has a stud returning to the hill. But, really picking 8 for the CWS and picking a 56-6 team is pretty easy thing to do. How do you go wrong? If OSU doesn't make it they look like the "failure" not the picker. It is baseball... who knows what will play out. If this season is not a perfect example of anything can happen then no season is!!! IF both do return and can have 25+ W's between them then I can see OSU, Stanford, UCLA fighting it out until the final weekend... and all three hosting and getting to a SUPER with the chance for (3) Pac12 teams to be CWS bound. We'll see... a long ways off with a lot of player issues to play out. If we are talking stud pitchers based on awards as a predictive tool for 2018 Pac12 standings, Fehmel was second team LS freshmam all-American, Mulholland is a concensus freshman all- American, and Gambrell was a 2016 Louisville slugger, high school all-American. Ucla always has one of the highest ranked recruiting classes. Also not a good predictive tool based on the last couple of UCLA seasons. Beavers will be just fine. My prediction, which means squat: 2018 pac12 champions for Oregon State. |
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Post by kersting13 on Jul 6, 2017 21:07:12 GMT -8
Drew and his family know exactly what they are doing. On a risk reward basis, Drew is declining 800k for a legit shot to come back to OSU and be looking at 4.5 million next year at this time. All he has to do is move up 15 spots in the draft, not at all an unreasonable projection. My money would be on him to do just that. I hope he comes back, and I'll be rooting for him with every pitch he throws. The geniuses at Tampa Bay have no idea how bad they are blowing it here and it will come back to bite them. Can anyone among us tell Drew that he ought to go pro for 40% of what the industry says he is worth? It is an insult. Where did we hear the $800K number? If true, I can understand Drew coming back to OSU. Perhaps the Rays didn't like something from his physical? You have to go down to #74 pick of the draft to find anyone who signed for less than that, which was slot for #74. The Rays had the slot $$ available to pay him for where they drafted him at, and they knew Drew was a RS sophomore who doesn't have to settle for a low-ball offer, so they must have had a reason to low-ball him. SaveSave |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 6, 2017 23:33:16 GMT -8
Drew and his family know exactly what they are doing. On a risk reward basis, Drew is declining 800k for a legit shot to come back to OSU and be looking at 4.5 million next year at this time. All he has to do is move up 15 spots in the draft, not at all an unreasonable projection. My money would be on him to do just that. I hope he comes back, and I'll be rooting for him with every pitch he throws. The geniuses at Tampa Bay have no idea how bad they are blowing it here and it will come back to bite them. Can anyone among us tell Drew that he ought to go pro for 40% of what the industry says he is worth? It is an insult. Where did we hear the $800K number? If true, I can understand Drew coming back to OSU. Perhaps the Rays didn't like something from his physical? You have to go down to #74 pick of the draft to find anyone who signed for less than that, which was slot for #74. The Rays had the slot $$ available to pay him for where they drafted him at, and they knew Drew was a RS sophomore who doesn't have to settle for a low-ball offer, so they must have had a reason to low-ball him. SaveSaveThe "$800K number" is $853,960. That is the minimum offer that Tampa Bay could make and retain the pick that they used on Rasmussen in 2018. Everyone agrees that the number was at least $853,960, but most believe it was that number or a couple of bucks more than that number. Tommy Doyle at pick #70 signed for less. There are two thoughts on why they did not offer more: The first is that Rasmussen is more hurt than Tampa Bay believed, when they picked him. Rasmussen was coming along. He threw 84 pitches against Abilene Christian to end the regular season. Then, he had a setback against Yale in the Regional. Rasmussen did not pitch in the Super Regionals. Rasmussen threw 12 pitches for the save against Fullerton and then was held out for a week. Casey decided against starting Rasmussen, because he said that Rasmussen would have been on an 80-pitch pitch-count. Rasmussen pitched 4 1/3 innings (52 pitches) of three hit ball in the loss. The second is that Tampa was tactically trying to reach and then pay less than the slot value with basically nothing to lose, because of the way that the MLB draft is set up. Rasmussen was projected to be a third-round pick, so it was a surprise to see him selected at the end of the first round. What lower-end Moneyballesque teams do is reach on a player and then attempt to pay him less than slot value. If he bites, Tampa gets $1,280,940 in free money that they can use on other picks. If he does not bite, as long as they make the $853,960 offer, they do not get the money, but they get the pick back in 2018. So, Tampa picked a pitcher with third round talent in the first round and then attempted to pay him low-second round money. Both Cincinnati and Oakland successfully did this in the first round and Houston did it in the second round. |
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Post by abureid on Jul 7, 2017 4:59:16 GMT -8
I am glad there are some guys here that can explain the money side. It is quite interesting
I for one cannot wait for Feb. Mrs Abu has agreed to spend 2 weeks in Surprise.
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Post by joecool on Jul 7, 2017 6:42:38 GMT -8
Good analysis Wilky, typically when teams reach for a player in an attempt to save money for other draft picks, don't they try to have an "agreement" in place before making the pick?
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Post by kersting13 on Jul 7, 2017 7:49:13 GMT -8
Where did we hear the $800K number? If true, I can understand Drew coming back to OSU. Perhaps the Rays didn't like something from his physical? You have to go down to #74 pick of the draft to find anyone who signed for less than that, which was slot for #74. The Rays had the slot $$ available to pay him for where they drafted him at, and they knew Drew was a RS sophomore who doesn't have to settle for a low-ball offer, so they must have had a reason to low-ball him. SaveSaveThe "$800K number" is $853,960. That is the minimum offer that Tampa Bay could make and retain the pick that they used on Rasmussen in 2018. Everyone agrees that the number was at least $853,960, but most believe it was that number or a couple of bucks more than that number. Tommy Doyle at pick #70 signed for less. There are two thoughts on why they did not offer more: The first is that Rasmussen is more hurt than Tampa Bay believed, when they picked him. Rasmussen was coming along. He threw 84 pitches against Abilene Christian to end the regular season. Then, he had a setback against Yale in the Regional. Rasmussen did not pitch in the Super Regionals. Rasmussen threw 12 pitches for the save against Fullerton and then was held out for a week. Casey decided against starting Rasmussen, because he said that Rasmussen would have been on an 80-pitch pitch-count. Rasmussen pitched 4 1/3 innings (52 pitches) of three hit ball in the loss. The second is that Tampa was tactically trying to reach and then pay less than the slot value with basically nothing to lose, because of the way that the MLB draft is set up. Rasmussen was projected to be a third-round pick, so it was a surprise to see him selected at the end of the first round. What lower-end Moneyballesque teams do is reach on a player and then attempt to pay him less than slot value. If he bites, Tampa gets $1,280,940 in free money that they can use on other picks. If he does not bite, as long as they make the $853,960 offer, they do not get the money, but they get the pick back in 2018. So, Tampa picked a pitcher with third round talent in the first round and then attempted to pay him low-second round money. Both Cincinnati and Oakland successfully did this in the first round and Houston did it in the second round. If that was TB's strategy, it was poorly conceived. If you're going to low-ball someone, you shouldn't do it with a RS sophomore. You must be confusing Cincinnati with another team, because the Reds definitely did not pay anyone who wasn't a 6-10th round Senior significantly less than slot. I know this because I follow the Reds draft very closely. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 7, 2017 12:18:43 GMT -8
The "$800K number" is $853,960. That is the minimum offer that Tampa Bay could make and retain the pick that they used on Rasmussen in 2018. Everyone agrees that the number was at least $853,960, but most believe it was that number or a couple of bucks more than that number. Tommy Doyle at pick #70 signed for less. There are two thoughts on why they did not offer more: The first is that Rasmussen is more hurt than Tampa Bay believed, when they picked him. Rasmussen was coming along. He threw 84 pitches against Abilene Christian to end the regular season. Then, he had a setback against Yale in the Regional. Rasmussen did not pitch in the Super Regionals. Rasmussen threw 12 pitches for the save against Fullerton and then was held out for a week. Casey decided against starting Rasmussen, because he said that Rasmussen would have been on an 80-pitch pitch-count. Rasmussen pitched 4 1/3 innings (52 pitches) of three hit ball in the loss. The second is that Tampa was tactically trying to reach and then pay less than the slot value with basically nothing to lose, because of the way that the MLB draft is set up. Rasmussen was projected to be a third-round pick, so it was a surprise to see him selected at the end of the first round. What lower-end Moneyballesque teams do is reach on a player and then attempt to pay him less than slot value. If he bites, Tampa gets $1,280,940 in free money that they can use on other picks. If he does not bite, as long as they make the $853,960 offer, they do not get the money, but they get the pick back in 2018. So, Tampa picked a pitcher with third round talent in the first round and then attempted to pay him low-second round money. Both Cincinnati and Oakland successfully did this in the first round and Houston did it in the second round. If that was TB's strategy, it was poorly conceived. If you're going to low-ball someone, you shouldn't do it with a RS sophomore. You must be confusing Cincinnati with another team, because the Reds definitely did not pay anyone who wasn't a 6-10th round Senior significantly less than slot. I know this because I follow the Reds draft very closely. Cincinnati's undervalue signings and free money generated: Round 1: Jeter Downs. Free money: $261,900 (12.6% of pick value.) Round 2: Stuart Fairchild. Free money: $2,500 (0.1% of pick value.) Round 5: Mac Sceroler. Free money: $77,400 (20.6% of pick value.) Round 6: Tyler Buffett. Free money: $210,900 (75.1% of pick value.) Round 7: Mark Kolzsvary. Free money: $68,800 (31.4% of pick value.) Round 8: Connor Ryan. Free money: $163,300 (94.2% of pick value. Cincinnati paid Ryan $10,000 and is attempting to reallocate the remaining $163,300.) Round 9: Packy Naughton. Free money: $9,900 (6.7% of pick value.) Round 10: Robby Howell. Free money: $126,900 (92.7% of pick value. Cincinnati paid Howell $10,000 and is attempting to reallocate the remaining $126,900.) Total amount generated on undervalue signings: $921,600. Total amount spent on overvalue signings (Rounds 3-4): $799,200. Total amount spent on free agents and overvalue picks (all other rounds): $80,000. Current profit: $42,000. Currently, Cincinnati has not signed Hunter Greene, the number two pick in the draft. It is believed that he wants at least the bonus paid to Louisville's Brendan McKay, $7,005,000, but the Reds have $7,235,200 to sign him. Greene is the only top 20 pick that remains unsigned. The next highest unsigned pick is Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall, who was taken 23rd overall by the Dodgers. The Dodgers have not yet signed their top three picks. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 7, 2017 12:32:18 GMT -8
Good analysis Wilky, typically when teams reach for a player in an attempt to save money for other draft picks, don't they try to have an "agreement" in place before making the pick? I don't know how coy you're being, Joe. No. Any draft pick that makes an "agreement," while still playing in the NCAA Tournament, would be automatically ineligible. I suppose that there could be some sort of "understanding" with a Major League team. I am hearing now that Tampa did not make the $853,960 offer. Apparently, the new CBA, which took effect at the start of the year, changes how offers need to be made to top-50 pitchers. Apparently, top-50 pitchers are supposed to submit an MRI to the MLB before the draft, and Rasmussen chose not to do so. Apparently, Rasmussen failed his MRI/physical with Tampa. Because Rasmussen did not submit an MRI to Tampa before the draft and subsequently failed his MRI/physical, Tampa was not obligated to make the $853,960 offer to retain the 32nd pick in the 2018 draft. If that is the case, I am curious what Tampa found out. I have been hearing that Rasmussen is still having post-surgery control problems. I am curious if the Tommy John surgery was a complete success. |
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Post by kersting13 on Jul 7, 2017 13:27:34 GMT -8
If that was TB's strategy, it was poorly conceived. If you're going to low-ball someone, you shouldn't do it with a RS sophomore. You must be confusing Cincinnati with another team, because the Reds definitely did not pay anyone who wasn't a 6-10th round Senior significantly less than slot. I know this because I follow the Reds draft very closely. Cincinnati's undervalue signings and free money generated: Round 1: Jeter Downs. Free money: $261,900 (12.6% of pick value.) Round 2: Stuart Fairchild. Free money: $2,500 (0.1% of pick value.) Round 5: Mac Sceroler. Free money: $77,400 (20.6% of pick value.) Round 6: Tyler Buffett. Free money: $210,900 (75.1% of pick value.) Round 7: Mark Kolzsvary. Free money: $68,800 (31.4% of pick value.) Round 8: Connor Ryan. Free money: $163,300 (94.2% of pick value. Cincinnati paid Ryan $10,000 and is attempting to reallocate the remaining $163,300.) Round 9: Packy Naughton. Free money: $9,900 (6.7% of pick value.) Round 10: Robby Howell. Free money: $126,900 (92.7% of pick value. Cincinnati paid Howell $10,000 and is attempting to reallocate the remaining $126,900.) Total amount generated on undervalue signings: $921,600. Total amount spent on overvalue signings (Rounds 3-4): $799,200. Total amount spent on free agents and overvalue picks (all other rounds): $80,000. Current profit: $42,000. Currently, Cincinnati has not signed Hunter Greene, the number two pick in the draft. It is believed that he wants at least the bonus paid to Louisville's Brendan McKay, $7,005,000, but the Reds have $7,235,200 to sign him. Greene is the only top 20 pick that remains unsigned. The next highest unsigned pick is Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall, who was taken 23rd overall by the Dodgers. The Dodgers have not yet signed their top three picks. I have all of the Reds draft picks and signing bonuses in a spreadsheet going back at least 5 years. I could practically recite it to you if you'd like. As you can see, the Reds did nothing like what TB was attempting to do and underslot a high draft pick by a million bucks. Signing a guy for $250K under slot and signing 6-10th round college seniors for pennies on the dollar is SOP for all MLB teams. If TB was truly trying to sign Rasmussen for 3rd round money, they were going way outside the box. If you were to analyze any of the other 29 MLB teams, you'd see most of theirs strategies looking very similar to the Reds. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 7, 2017 14:01:34 GMT -8
Cincinnati's undervalue signings and free money generated: Round 1: Jeter Downs. Free money: $261,900 (12.6% of pick value.) Round 2: Stuart Fairchild. Free money: $2,500 (0.1% of pick value.) Round 5: Mac Sceroler. Free money: $77,400 (20.6% of pick value.) Round 6: Tyler Buffett. Free money: $210,900 (75.1% of pick value.) Round 7: Mark Kolzsvary. Free money: $68,800 (31.4% of pick value.) Round 8: Connor Ryan. Free money: $163,300 (94.2% of pick value. Cincinnati paid Ryan $10,000 and is attempting to reallocate the remaining $163,300.) Round 9: Packy Naughton. Free money: $9,900 (6.7% of pick value.) Round 10: Robby Howell. Free money: $126,900 (92.7% of pick value. Cincinnati paid Howell $10,000 and is attempting to reallocate the remaining $126,900.) Total amount generated on undervalue signings: $921,600. Total amount spent on overvalue signings (Rounds 3-4): $799,200. Total amount spent on free agents and overvalue picks (all other rounds): $80,000. Current profit: $42,000. Currently, Cincinnati has not signed Hunter Greene, the number two pick in the draft. It is believed that he wants at least the bonus paid to Louisville's Brendan McKay, $7,005,000, but the Reds have $7,235,200 to sign him. Greene is the only top 20 pick that remains unsigned. The next highest unsigned pick is Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall, who was taken 23rd overall by the Dodgers. The Dodgers have not yet signed their top three picks. I have all of the Reds draft picks and signing bonuses in a spreadsheet going back at least 5 years. I could practically recite it to you if you'd like. As you can see, the Reds did nothing like what TB was attempting to do and underslot a high draft pick by a million bucks. Signing a guy for $250K under slot and signing 6-10th round college seniors for pennies on the dollar is SOP for all MLB teams. If TB was truly trying to sign Rasmussen for 3rd round money, they were going way outside the box. If you were to analyze any of the other 29 MLB teams, you'd see most of theirs strategies looking very similar to the Reds. Yeah. I am sorry. I was just trying to relay what I have been hearing. Apparently, the CBA was changed in November, which allows teams to basically back out on top-50 pitchers, if they fail their MRI or physical, if the pitcher did not submit a pre-draft MRI. I am hearing that Tampa found something on Ras' MRI that caused them to back out. I am curious as to what they found. |
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Post by kersting13 on Jul 7, 2017 14:29:03 GMT -8
I have all of the Reds draft picks and signing bonuses in a spreadsheet going back at least 5 years. I could practically recite it to you if you'd like. As you can see, the Reds did nothing like what TB was attempting to do and underslot a high draft pick by a million bucks. Signing a guy for $250K under slot and signing 6-10th round college seniors for pennies on the dollar is SOP for all MLB teams. If TB was truly trying to sign Rasmussen for 3rd round money, they were going way outside the box. If you were to analyze any of the other 29 MLB teams, you'd see most of theirs strategies looking very similar to the Reds. Yeah. I am sorry. I was just trying to relay what I have been hearing. Apparently, the CBA was changed in November, which allows teams to basically back out on top-50 pitchers, if they fail their MRI or physical, if the pitcher did not submit a pre-draft MRI. I am hearing that Tampa found something on Ras' MRI that caused them to back out. I am curious as to what they found. That would match with my speculation up in the 4th post on this page: TB drafting a RS soph in rd 1 with intentions of paying rd 3 money is a bad strategy unless the deal was worked out before hand. Getting an MRI they didn't like is a logical explanation. |
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Post by baseba1111 on Jul 7, 2017 14:39:12 GMT -8
They "technically" do not have to "find" anything. Once Razz did not submit to the pre-draft MRI the Rays had an out. The MRI can be interpreted in many ways but their staff physician to get "failed MRI". The Rays were playing the system to the max by "over drafting" Razz with no intention of ever giving him slot or close to slot $$. This allowed for reallocation of funds (which is allowed despite claims above) which is a common practice (as I was chided for mentioning in the KJ thread). That is why you draft him Top 50, otherwise this rule and the implications do not take effect.
As I mentioned in earlier threads, if Razz was healthy you'd have seen him pitch much more later in the season, post season, AND would have submitted to a pre-draft MRI. I believe he may have been duped/used into believing that pitching was going to raise his draft stock. My scout buds said there was no way Razz would be drafted in the top 200 (for $ considerations) without a positive MRI. Then when the Rays used the #31 on him even though he really never pitched it was obvious he was not truly in their plans. Which left Razz and family to find they were not really interested in anything but that same pick in 2018.
So... he could sign for "nothing", or opt back to school and take the chance he gets more $$ with less leverage (and a healthy MRI). People do not realize what a "meat market" the MLB draft is for pitchers. Everyone gets the injuries and short careers associated with the NFL, but pitchers in the MLB system are used/abused pawns to fill out rosters/innings while very few actually get to the Bigs. The new rule on the Top 50 is there to protect teams from the undisclosed (to the team and even the players themselves might not be fully aware) injuries many pitchers have from over use/underdevelopment. It's a shame of sorts, but the "injured' pitcher being drafted in the Top 50 for the sake of slot $ reallocation could be a common occurrence. The Rays just played the "game".
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Post by jdogge on Jul 7, 2017 14:58:30 GMT -8
Good analysis Wilky, typically when teams reach for a player in an attempt to save money for other draft picks, don't they try to have an "agreement" in place before making the pick? I don't know how coy you're being, Joe. No. Any draft pick that makes an "agreement," while still playing in the NCAA Tournament, would be automatically ineligible. I suppose that there could be some sort of "understanding" with a Major League team. I am hearing now that Tampa did not make the $853,960 offer. Apparently, the new CBA, which took effect at the start of the year, changes how offers need to be made to top-50 pitchers. Apparently, top-50 pitchers are supposed to submit an MRI to the MLB before the draft, and Rasmussen chose not to do so. Apparently, Rasmussen failed his MRI/physical with Tampa. Because Rasmussen did not submit an MRI to Tampa before the draft and subsequently failed his MRI/physical, Tampa was not obligated to make the $853,960 offer to retain the 32nd pick in the 2018 draft. If that is the case, I am curious what Tampa found out. I have been hearing that Rasmussen is still having post-surgery control problems. I am curious if the Tommy John surgery was a complete success. He came back really quickly. James Andrews recommends 15-18 months for young TJ candidates. |
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