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Post by 86BEAVER on Jul 25, 2024 12:00:36 GMT -8
Too lazy to pick through all the random postings.
Are any of our draftees likely to return?
How about drafted high-school signers?
What is the "drop-dead" date?
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Post by orangeblood on Jul 25, 2024 13:31:15 GMT -8
Drop dead date is August 2, 2pm PDT
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Post by easyheat on Jul 25, 2024 15:18:24 GMT -8
Per MLB: Thursday, August 1st - 5pm eastern
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Post by orangeblood on Jul 25, 2024 15:43:40 GMT -8
You are correct. It is August 1. My typo.
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Post by joecool on Jul 25, 2024 18:38:09 GMT -8
Too lazy to pick through all the random postings. Are any of our draftees likely to return? How about drafted high-school signers? What is the "drop-dead" date? Kmatz is the only one that hasn't signed, I think everyone still expects him to sign. No official work on Zach Swanson signing with the Tigers but he will. Adam Haight picked in the 20th round by the Mets has not signed, no talk either way. |
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Post by chinmusic on Jul 25, 2024 22:06:13 GMT -8
Kmatz will definitely sign with the Rays, they won't lose a 5th round pick. At the moment, Jacob is a victim of circumstances. The Ray's pool amount was 18th in the draft at $10,930,100.00 and to date they have only signed 9 of 20 of their draft picks.
I suspect this is the hang-up with Jacob - they haven't been able to come to terms with their #1 pick, a high school outfielder from Austin,TX - Westlake named Theo Gillen. His slot is $4,372,900. which would eat up over 40% of their pool. Signing Gillen for below slot is critical because to date the Rays have only signed 1 of their first 6 picks which includes Kmatz.
The Domino affect will likely take place once Gillen is signed and TB knows what they have to work with down the line. I expect the majority of Devil Ray draft picks will be offered and sign for below slot money. Every one of the 11 remaining unsigned in the TB draft group may end up taking a haircut. Jacob's 5th round slot is valued at $418,600.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 26, 2024 0:28:03 GMT -8
Kmatz will definitely sign with the Rays, they won't lose a 5th round pick. At the moment, Jacob is a victim of circumstances. The Ray's pool amount was 18th in the draft at $10,930,100.00 and to date they have only signed 9 of 20 of their draft picks. I suspect this is the hang-up with Jacob - they haven't been able to come to terms with their #1 pick, a high school outfielder from Austin,TX - Westlake named Theo Gillen. His slot is $4,372,900. which would eat up over 40% of their pool. Signing Gillen for below slot is critical because to date the Rays have only signed 1 of their first 6 picks which includes Kmatz. The Domino affect will likely take place once Gillen is signed and TB knows what they have to work with down the line. I expect the majority of Devil Ray draft picks will be offered and sign for below slot money. Every one of the 11 remaining unsigned in the TB draft group may end up taking a haircut. Jacob's 5th round slot is valued at $418,600. Fun fact. Jacob Kmatz was selected in the Fifth Round. The last time an Oregon State pitcher was selected in the Fifth Round? 2013. Ben Wetzler. Wetzler returned in 2014. The Phillies tried to hose Wetzler and offered him a pittance, and Wetzler returned in 2014. Probably a 5%-10% chance it happens again with Kmatz, like drawing an inside straight. Unlikely but still possible. |
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Post by chinmusic on Jul 26, 2024 3:41:39 GMT -8
The "Bonus Pool" era began in 2012, so we look at the data from the past 13 years to calculate the probability of a Kmatz return. I looked at the data from the first 10 rounds of the last 13 drafts to see how many of the 3,648 players drafted in those rounds did not sign. There were 46 players for one reason or another that didn't sign.
That computes to a 98.7% signing rate for MLB teams with their first 10 round draft picks.
With the 1.3% chance that Kmatz doesn't sign, I deliberately used the word "definitely".
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 26, 2024 8:28:24 GMT -8
The "Bonus Pool" era began in 2012, so we look at the data from the past 13 years to calculate the probability of a Kmatz return. I looked at the data from the first 10 rounds of the last 13 drafts to see how many of the 3,648 players drafted in those rounds did not sign. There were 46 players for one reason or another that didn't sign. That computes to a 98.7% signing rate for MLB teams with their first 10 round draft picks. With the 1.3% chance that Kmatz doesn't sign, I deliberately used the word "definitely".  |
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Post by joecool on Jul 26, 2024 13:04:31 GMT -8
Kmatz will definitely sign with the Rays, they won't lose a 5th round pick. At the moment, Jacob is a victim of circumstances. The Ray's pool amount was 18th in the draft at $10,930,100.00 and to date they have only signed 9 of 20 of their draft picks. I suspect this is the hang-up with Jacob - they haven't been able to come to terms with their #1 pick, a high school outfielder from Austin,TX - Westlake named Theo Gillen. His slot is $4,372,900. which would eat up over 40% of their pool. Signing Gillen for below slot is critical because to date the Rays have only signed 1 of their first 6 picks which includes Kmatz. The Domino affect will likely take place once Gillen is signed and TB knows what they have to work with down the line. I expect the majority of Devil Ray draft picks will be offered and sign for below slot money. Every one of the 11 remaining unsigned in the TB draft group may end up taking a haircut. Jacob's 5th round slot is valued at $418,600. Gillen signed for full slot today. |
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Post by chinmusic on Jul 26, 2024 19:50:28 GMT -8
I'll bet Gillen was the hang-up - he wasn't interested in a below slot offer. Gillen is a Stud, big with power, ranked #11 nationally and with a UT scholarship and attractive NIL deal in hand. Now the Dominos tumble and Kmatz should sign in the next few days.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 26, 2024 20:57:46 GMT -8
I'll bet Gillen was the hang-up - he wasn't interested in a below slot offer. Gillen is a Stud, big with power, ranked #11 nationally and with a UT scholarship and attractive NIL deal in hand. Now the Dominos tumble and Kmatz should sign in the next few days. They still have five more high schoolers to sign. If the Rays can pull that all off, good on 'em. |
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Post by 56chevy on Jul 26, 2024 21:57:38 GMT -8
Kmatz will definitely sign with the Rays, they won't lose a 5th round pick. At the moment, Jacob is a victim of circumstances. The Ray's pool amount was 18th in the draft at $10,930,100.00 and to date they have only signed 9 of 20 of their draft picks. I suspect this is the hang-up with Jacob - they haven't been able to come to terms with their #1 pick, a high school outfielder from Austin,TX - Westlake named Theo Gillen. His slot is $4,372,900. which would eat up over 40% of their pool. Signing Gillen for below slot is critical because to date the Rays have only signed 1 of their first 6 picks which includes Kmatz. The Domino affect will likely take place once Gillen is signed and TB knows what they have to work with down the line. I expect the majority of Devil Ray draft picks will be offered and sign for below slot money. Every one of the 11 remaining unsigned in the TB draft group may end up taking a haircut. Jacob's 5th round slot is valued at $418,600. Fun fact. Jacob Kmatz was selected in the Fifth Round. The last time an Oregon State pitcher was selected in the Fifth Round? 2013. Ben Wetzler. Wetzler returned in 2014. The Phillies tried to hose Wetzler and offered him a pittance, and Wetzler returned in 2014. Probably a 5%-10% chance it happens again with Kmatz, like drawing an inside straight. Unlikely but still possible. Possibly the biggest injustice I've seen in NCAA talent going professional is the case of Wetzler and the draft. In 2013 his ERA was 2.17 and his whip was 1.17. He gets picked in the fifth round but returns for a 2014 season in which he goes 12-1 with an ERA of .78 and whip about the same. Despite that most amazing of seasons he goes from a fifth rounder to a seventh round pick. |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Jul 27, 2024 9:34:32 GMT -8
Fun fact. Jacob Kmatz was selected in the Fifth Round. The last time an Oregon State pitcher was selected in the Fifth Round? 2013. Ben Wetzler. Wetzler returned in 2014. The Phillies tried to hose Wetzler and offered him a pittance, and Wetzler returned in 2014. Probably a 5%-10% chance it happens again with Kmatz, like drawing an inside straight. Unlikely but still possible. Possibly the biggest injustice I've seen in NCAA talent going professional is the case of Wetzler and the draft. In 2013 his ERA was 2.17 and his whip was 1.17. He gets picked in the fifth round but returns for a 2014 season in which he goes 12-1 with an ERA of .78 and whip about the same. Despite that most amazing of seasons he goes from a fifth rounder to a seventh round pick. He didn't throw any harder than he did as a junior or do anything else to add to his value, and now was a year older. Coming back as a senior decreased his value. Judging by his pro career, the scouts got it right. Wetzler's legal escapades didn't help him, either. Matt Boyd, OTOH, did throw harder, did get better, did prove himself as a starter after turning down the Reds after his junior year. So he improved by six rounds after improving as a prospect. |
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Post by rgeorge on Jul 27, 2024 10:13:58 GMT -8
Fun fact. Jacob Kmatz was selected in the Fifth Round. The last time an Oregon State pitcher was selected in the Fifth Round? 2013. Ben Wetzler. Wetzler returned in 2014. The Phillies tried to hose Wetzler and offered him a pittance, and Wetzler returned in 2014. Probably a 5%-10% chance it happens again with Kmatz, like drawing an inside straight. Unlikely but still possible. Possibly the biggest injustice I've seen in NCAA talent going professional is the case of Wetzler and the draft. In 2013 his ERA was 2.17 and his whip was 1.17. He gets picked in the fifth round but returns for a 2014 season in which he goes 12-1 with an ERA of .78 and whip about the same. Despite that most amazing of seasons he goes from a fifth rounder to a seventh round pick. Ah... it's what happens when a player has zero leverage. No need to draft at a higher slot. Ask 30 teams do the same thing or he would have been gone earlier. |
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