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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 4, 2024 23:04:16 GMT -8
Kentucky's head coach is Nick Mingione. Mingione was an assistant coach for Mississippi State from 2008 to 2016. He was credited with mentoring Hunter Renfroe, who destroyed Oregon State at the 2013 College World Series. Mingione took over as Kentucky's head coach between the 2016 and 2017 seasons, earning SEC Coach of the Year honors in his first year. The Wildcats hosted the Lexington Regional last year but lost the Baton Rouge Super Regional to LSU.
Of the eight pitchers who pitched in the Lexington Regional, several are transfers. They include:
Ace Trey Pooser College of Charleston
Saturday Starter Dominic Niman Central Connecticut State
Best Middle Reliver Cameron O'Brien Campbell
Johnny Hummel (Erskine) was the closer but has an ERA of 9.72 in his last seven appearances, since the Sunday game of the Tennessee series. He stopped being used a closer after blowing a save against Florida 25 days ago. Hummel does not get hit a lot but gets hit hard. .160 BAA, but he leads the relievers in home runs allowed with eight.
Kentucky's 4-5-6 hitters at the Lexington Regional are all transfers. Kentucky's cleanup hitter is Nick Lopez, who transferred to Kentucky from USC. Kentucky's five-hitter and starting third baseman is Mitchell Daly from Texas. Kentucky's six-hitter and starting first baseman is Ryan Nicholson from Cincinnati.
Ty Crittenberger has been the third guy off the bench is a Western Kentucky transfer.
Most previews that I see mention Kentucky's speed. The general consensus is that Oregon State has better starting pitching. Having said that, they also mention that Mason Moore, who has been the Sunday starter and was Kentucky's best returning pitcher, has not allowed a run in the postseason last year and this year. As such, they flipflop Mason Moore and Niman. They also mention that Kentucky has a better bullpen than Oregon State.
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2ndGenBeaver
Sophomore
Posts: 1,837 
Grad Year: 1991 (MS/CS) 1999 (PhD/CS)
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Post by 2ndGenBeaver on Jun 5, 2024 6:22:42 GMT -8
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Jun 5, 2024 8:11:44 GMT -8
Some stats comparison....
OSU team era is 3.98.....UK 5.11
OSU team BA is .304 and OBP .426...UK .289, and .407
OSU has hit 118 HRs.....UK 83
OSU has scored 516 runs as opposed to giving up 274 runs...UK scored 458 and gave up 310
It's gonna come down to pitching, and defense. We need to be cleaner on D. I like our pitching vs. theirs....pretty large discrepancy in team ERA. And if we are mashing, we could put up a couple crooked innings, which might neutralize their small ball ways......but its baseball! Should be a fun one.
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Post by 56chevy on Jun 5, 2024 8:49:25 GMT -8
Ok...if it comes down to pitching and defense, and we proceed to score double digits in a two game sweep will it be their pitching or our hitting? Also a bit ironic that we have rightly been concerned about our pitching this season it is now considered an edge for us in a super regional against the #2 national seed. Saturday can not get here soon enough.
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Post by rgeorge on Jun 5, 2024 9:01:32 GMT -8
Numbers that can skew other numbers...
- 22-8 vs #1 rated conference
19-10 vs #6 rated conference
- 41 Q1 & Q2 games played
22 Q1 & Q2 games played
- average "RPI win" 74
average "RPI win" 123
- average "RPI loss" 49
average "RPI loss" 87
- SOS #7
SOS #65
Just as Irvine was the best (although it was a low bar this season) opponent to enter Goss... UK is OSU's toughest opponent. It's not preseason, it's on the road, and high pressure situation. Most sites have OSU @ 40% to win game 1. Probably about right even with May as it's vs the #2 seed, 24-6 at home, vs OSU 9-10 in true road games.
As stated previously... pitching! Both ways. UK doesn't seem to be a team with a ton of "explosion". But, they are a far better team than Irvine that plays a complete offensive game and applies pressure. Both teams need to keep "freebies" off the bases. OSU can't give away 10+ outs with Ks. UK can't give OSU hitters multiple opportunities with guys on.
Postseason is always a guarantee that "another guy" comes from no where and creates havoc. Hoping it's from OSU's roster!
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Post by mbabeav on Jun 5, 2024 9:09:13 GMT -8
To me it all comes down to Segura. All things (I have) considered, we split the first two games. So Segura and the pen are tasked with putting the brakes on Kentucky, or we score 7 or more runs.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Jun 5, 2024 9:17:35 GMT -8
Ok...if it comes down to pitching and defense, and we proceed to score double digits in a two game sweep will it be their pitching or our hitting? Also a bit ironic that we have rightly been concerned about our pitching this season it is now considered an edge for us in a super regional against the #2 national seed. Saturday can not get here soon enough. My biggest concern is our offense disappears, like it can at times......that, and we give out free passes at a high rate.....and the defense is sloppy. One thing I hear about UK is they are "balanced.".......I think if we play "balanced" we are the better team by the numbers. We got lucky that that we didn't pay for the sloppy defense in the regional. Looking at UK, they get guys on, and they are aggressive.....not a good team to play sloppy D against.....and they have a deep, experienced lineup. Can't wait for Saturday! |
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Post by obf on Jun 5, 2024 9:19:56 GMT -8
For me it all comes down to our offense. Our offense is what seems to be different on the road; less consistent, less comfortable, all or nothing. look at the last 5 games of the regular season and pac-12 tourney in Arizona. We score 9 and 16 runs, then our offense goes silent and we score 3, 1, 3. if we are scoring 9+ runs, Kentucky wont be able to keep up, but we cant be scoring 0-3 and hope to win. Just need our offense to settle in and be comfortable, usual home selfs  |
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Jun 5, 2024 9:48:44 GMT -8
Numbers that can skew other numbers... - 22-8 vs #1 rated conference 19-10 vs #6 rated conference - 41 Q1 & Q2 games played 22 Q1 & Q2 games played - average "RPI win" 74 average "RPI win" 123 - average "RPI loss" 49 average "RPI loss" 87 - SOS #7 SOS #65 Just as Irvine was the best (although it was a low bar this season) opponent to enter Goss... UK is OSU's toughest opponent. It's not preseason, it's on the road, and high pressure situation. Most sites have OSU @ 40% to win game 1. Probably about right even with May as it's vs the #2 seed, 24-6 at home, vs OSU 9-10 in true road games. As stated previously... pitching! Both ways. UK doesn't seem to be a team with a ton of "explosion". But, they are a far better team than Irvine that plays a complete offensive game and applies pressure. Both teams need to keep "freebies" off the bases. OSU can't give away 10+ outs with Ks. UK can't give OSU hitters multiple opportunities with guys on. Postseason is always a guarantee that "another guy" comes from no where and creates havoc. Hoping it's from OSU's roster! This series feels like a clash of styles similar to match-ups we've had historically with some "power" teams from the SEC or other conferences. The weird thing is now we're the gorilla ball, smash a bunch of HRs team and we're up against the small ball team that likes to put pressure on. A lot of the time the small ball/balanced team came out on top and I agree it will likely come down to which team doesn't give away outs/opportunities to get runs across.
I'm actually not concerned with giving up too many free passes, at least with our starting pitching, as a different poster said. OSU is #34 nationally in walks per game, Kentucky is 91st. More important for OSU will be defending a bunt, keeping runners from taking extra bases, and giving them 4 or 5 outs to score. I also think OSU has a better shot at a 2 game sweep than winning in 3. Nothing against Segura, as for a freshman he's done everything we could ask of him, I just don't like our chances as much in a rubber match where they've seen our top bullpen guys already and we don't have Kmatz/May on the mound.
It was great seeing Hainline be the guy that stepped up big in the regional, I'd love to see him keep that up. I think a big key for us will be MMD continuing to swing the bat well and not allowing UK to just pitch around/walk Travis too. As far as "another guy" to step up, I'm keeping an eye on Kasper. He's been quieter the last few weeks and it feels like he's due to have a bit of a breakout series. He's a senior, been in these situations before, you know he wants a shot in Omaha, just feels like he could be the guy this weekend. Should be a fun one.
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Post by irimi on Jun 5, 2024 11:12:39 GMT -8
To me it all comes down to Segura. All things (I have) considered, we split the first two games. So Segura and the pen are tasked with putting the brakes on Kentucky, or we score 7 or more runs. I don't know. Our May/Kmatz punch could be enough if they throw like they can. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 5, 2024 13:35:35 GMT -8
Some stats comparison.... OSU team era is 3.98.....UK 5.11 OSU team BA is .304 and OBP .426...UK .289, and .407 OSU has hit 118 HRs.....UK 83 OSU has scored 516 runs as opposed to giving up 274 runs...UK scored 458 and gave up 310 It's gonna come down to pitching, and defense. We need to be cleaner on D. I like our pitching vs. theirs....pretty large discrepancy in team ERA. And if we are mashing, we could put up a couple crooked innings, which might neutralize their small ball ways......but its baseball! Should be a fun one. More stats.... OSU slugging is .565 and OPS .991...UK .500 and .907 Other less good stats.... OSU struck out 551 times...UK 440 UK 113 HBPs...OSU 60 UK is 19th in the country in drawing HBPs. Kentucky is like a Pat Casey-style team. Extremely good defense. The guys grind and do not strike out. A lot of station-to-station. Slow and steady offense, instead of relying on hit-and-miss big bats. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 5, 2024 13:54:28 GMT -8
Numbers that can skew other numbers...- 22-8 vs #1 rated conference 19-10 vs #6 rated conference - 41 Q1 & Q2 games played 22 Q1 & Q2 games played - average "RPI win" 74 average "RPI win" 123 - average "RPI loss" 49 average "RPI loss" 87 - SOS #7 SOS #65 Just as Irvine was the best (although it was a low bar this season) opponent to enter Goss... UK is OSU's toughest opponent. It's not preseason, it's on the road, and high pressure situation. Most sites have OSU @ 40% to win game 1. Probably about right even with May as it's vs the #2 seed, 24-6 at home, vs OSU 9-10 in true road games. As stated previously... pitching! Both ways. UK doesn't seem to be a team with a ton of "explosion". But, they are a far better team than Irvine that plays a complete offensive game and applies pressure. Both teams need to keep "freebies" off the bases. OSU can't give away 10+ outs with Ks. UK can't give OSU hitters multiple opportunities with guys on. Postseason is always a guarantee that "another guy" comes from no where and creates havoc. Hoping it's from OSU's roster! Says, "Numbers that can skew other numbers..." and then puts up skewed numbers. Your points are valid, but RPI is not a serious way to evaluate teams from different regions. Oregon State probably beats Kentucky at a neutral site. The question is whether Oregon State is locked in enough to beat the best team that they have faced with a style of offense that they really have not played against at this level (Utah is the closest analogous team) on the road in a type of place that no one at Oregon State has played at, wearing orange and black. I am not overly concerned about offense. Arizona, Oklahoma State, and Oregon are pretty analogous to Kentucky both defensively and pitching-wise. And Oregon State put up enough runs to win games. The question is how the defense and the pitching staff holds up. Oregon State is like Mike Tyson. They have May and Kmatz, two great haymakers. If the haymakers don't land, though, and Beavs get deep into the bullpen or this gets strung into Monday or May or Kmatz are sidelined by weather, I worry about how that shakes out. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 5, 2024 13:58:32 GMT -8
To me it all comes down to Segura. All things (I have) considered, we split the first two games. So Segura and the pen are tasked with putting the brakes on Kentucky, or we score 7 or more runs. I don't know. Our May/Kmatz punch could be enough if they throw like they can. If this gets into Monday or we have weather mess up May/Kmatz on Saturday and Sunday, I worry about the result. Oregon State needs to beat Kentucky on Saturday and Sunday. Kentucky has the advantage (on paper), the longer the series goes. Kmatz & May and then pray for a delay. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 5, 2024 14:34:26 GMT -8
I don't know. Our May/Kmatz punch could be enough if they throw like they can. If this gets into Monday or we have weather mess up May/Kmatz on Saturday and Sunday, I worry about the result. Oregon State needs to beat Kentucky on Saturday and Sunday. Kentucky has the advantage (on paper), the longer the series goes. Kmatz & May and then pray for a delay. Just to add to this, Oregon State was 4-5 on day three in Pac-12 play, 15-5 on days one and two. 1-3 on the road on day three in Pac-12 play. 5-5 on the road on days one and two. A perfect 10-0 in games one and two at Goss in Pac-12 play, 3-2 in game three at Goss in Pac-12 play. The team won exactly twice as often on days one and two on the road than it won on day three on the road.  Kmatz & May and then pray for a delay. |
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Post by blove on Jun 5, 2024 16:42:11 GMT -8
Interesting their shortstop, Grant Smith, is from Albuquerque as well.
Different high school but he stated that they are friends and faced both in high school.
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