|
|
Post by bvrbooster on Jun 5, 2024 17:36:32 GMT -8
I think our pitching has generally rounded into shape the last 3 or 4 weeks, both starters and the pen. As I stated on another thread, avoid walks and hit batters with zero or one out.
|
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 5, 2024 22:13:59 GMT -8
I think our pitching has generally rounded into shape the last 3 or 4 weeks, both starters and the pen. As I stated on another thread, avoid walks and hit batters with zero or one out.Avoid walks and hit batters with two outs as well....................and hits and errors. |
|
|
|
Post by flyfishinbeav on Jun 6, 2024 6:20:34 GMT -8
Numbers that can skew other numbers...- 22-8 vs #1 rated conference 19-10 vs #6 rated conference - 41 Q1 & Q2 games played 22 Q1 & Q2 games played - average "RPI win" 74 average "RPI win" 123 - average "RPI loss" 49 average "RPI loss" 87 - SOS #7 SOS #65 Just as Irvine was the best (although it was a low bar this season) opponent to enter Goss... UK is OSU's toughest opponent. It's not preseason, it's on the road, and high pressure situation. Most sites have OSU @ 40% to win game 1. Probably about right even with May as it's vs the #2 seed, 24-6 at home, vs OSU 9-10 in true road games. As stated previously... pitching! Both ways. UK doesn't seem to be a team with a ton of "explosion". But, they are a far better team than Irvine that plays a complete offensive game and applies pressure. Both teams need to keep "freebies" off the bases. OSU can't give away 10+ outs with Ks. UK can't give OSU hitters multiple opportunities with guys on. Postseason is always a guarantee that "another guy" comes from no where and creates havoc. Hoping it's from OSU's roster! Says, "Numbers that can skew other numbers..." and then puts up skewed numbers. Your points are valid, but RPI is not a serious way to evaluate teams from different regions. Oregon State probably beats Kentucky at a neutral site. The question is whether Oregon State is locked in enough to beat the best team that they have faced with a style of offense that they really have not played against at this level (Utah is the closest analogous team) on the road in a type of place that no one at Oregon State has played at, wearing orange and black. I am not overly concerned about offense. Arizona, Oklahoma State, and Oregon are pretty analogous to Kentucky both defensively and pitching-wise. And Oregon State put up enough runs to win games. The question is how the defense and the pitching staff holds up. Oregon State is like Mike Tyson. They have May and Kmatz, two great haymakers. If the haymakers don't land, though, and Beavs get deep into the bullpen or this gets strung into Monday or May or Kmatz are sidelined by weather, I worry about how that shakes out. It seems like Tucky pitching might be front end heavy as well. I keep hearing about their first two guys in the rotation.......so if it goes to a third game maybe it's worse for them? Their team ERA is significantly higher than ours. |
|
|
|
Post by beaver1989 on Jun 6, 2024 9:12:42 GMT -8
Here are some of the Kentucky pitchers we're most likely to see.
Starters
Era Ip B/Avg
RH Pooser 3.77 76.1 .214
RH Moore 5.02 84.1 .242
LH Niman 6.24 70.2 .275
Relievers
RH Hagenow 1.96 18.1 .192
RH Hogan 2.75 36 .160
RH Hummel 3.54 28 .160
LH O'Brien 4.34 29 .226
LH Byers 5.32 23.2 .275
LH Nove 5.86 27.2 .235
Kentucky has good pitching & hitting, teams don't 'fluke' their way to a 22-8 conference record in the SEC.
They were in the Baton Rouge Super Regional last year and were steamrolled by LSU, but they have a veteran squad & are a much better team this year.
|
|
|
|
Post by irimi on Jun 6, 2024 9:37:03 GMT -8
Avoid injuries all the way through. Everything else can be handled on the field.
I know enough not to ask about Lattery, but flying in the face of reason, any news on Lattery?
|
|
|
|
Post by killerbeavs on Jun 6, 2024 9:43:18 GMT -8
- 22-8 vs #1 rated conference Against some of the #1 rated conference. They did not play series against Texas A&M or Mississippi St., two of the top three from the west division. They did get the bottom two teams from the other division. |
|
|
|
Post by ihatetheducks on Jun 6, 2024 10:01:36 GMT -8
Series odds: Kentucky -140 | Oregon State +110
Odds would probably be reversed if series was in Corvallis. Pretty much a toss-up. Bring on the stress....
|
|
|
|
Post by beavs6 on Jun 6, 2024 10:16:17 GMT -8
Here are some of the Kentucky pitchers we're most likely to see. Starters Era Ip B/Avg RH Pooser 3.77 76.1 .214 RH Moore 5.02 84.1 .242 LH Niman 6.24 70.2 .275 Relievers RH Hagenow 1.96 18.1 .192 RH Hogan 2.75 36 .160 RH Hummel 3.54 28 .160 LH O'Brien 4.34 29 .226 LH Byers 5.32 23.2 .275 LH Nove 5.86 27.2 .235 Kentucky has good pitching & hitting, teams don't 'fluke' their way to a 22-8 conference record in the SEC. They were in the Baton Rouge Super Regional last year and were steamrolled by LSU, but they have a veteran squad & are a much better team this year. I think I read that Moore is on a 20 odd inning 0.00 ERA. Might have been only NCAA Tourney innings, or the last 20. I'm not sure. Either way, he is currently in a groove...but that 5.02 ERA is down over his last 2-4 starts. |
|
|
|
Post by Bodhisattva on Jun 6, 2024 12:31:33 GMT -8
Seeing quite a few experts picking Beavers to win this series in 2 games. Fitt picked Beavs to win it all.
|
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 6, 2024 12:52:10 GMT -8
Here are some of the Kentucky pitchers we're most likely to see. Starters Era Ip B/Avg RH Pooser 3.77 76.1 .214 RH Moore 5.02 84.1 .242 LH Niman 6.24 70.2 .275 Relievers RH Hagenow 1.96 18.1 .192 RH Hogan 2.75 36 .160 RH Hummel 3.54 28 .160 LH O'Brien 4.34 29 .226 LH Byers 5.32 23.2 .275 LH Nove 5.86 27.2 .235 Kentucky has good pitching & hitting, teams don't 'fluke' their way to a 22-8 conference record in the SEC. They were in the Baton Rouge Super Regional last year and were steamrolled by LSU, but they have a veteran squad & are a much better team this year. I think I read that Moore is on a 20 odd inning 0.00 ERA. Might have been only NCAA Tourney innings, or the last 20. I'm not sure. Either way, he is currently in a groove...but that 5.02 ERA is down over his last 2-4 starts. Moore has thrown 20.1 innings of Tournament baseball the without having been scored upon. Moore started the opener against Ball State in the 2023 Lexington Regional. He threw five innings of perfect baseball. After Kentucky lost the second game to Indiana, he was called to throw in the Lexington Regional Game against Indiana. On two days' rest, he threw five innings of four-hit, shutout baseball. He was called on to pitch to LSU in the second game of the Baton Rouge Super Regional after the starter gave up five. Moore threw 4.1 innings of two-hit, shutout baseball. However, the five runs in the first three innings and an additional three runs in the ninth were too much to overcome in an 8-3 loss. Moore had the flu for the Lexington Regional this year. It was uncertain whether he would pitch, but he came on to throw six innings of four hit, shutout baseball in the Lexington Regional Championship Game. Both Kentucky's ace, Trey Pooser, and Moore were named to the Lexington Regional All-Tournament team. In looking at Moore's stats, three of his five worst pitching performances this year--Auburn, Vandy, & South Carolina--all came on short (five days') rest. In those three games, Moore had an ERA of 11.68. If you take out those three games, Moore has an ERA of 4.38. The Vandy & South Carolina games were two of the last three starts, so the ERA has actually gone up over the past three weekends. But Moore outdeuled the Arkansas Sunday starter and Florida's Sunday starter in the two games before that. Moore thus has an ERA of 2.04 in his last three Sunday starts against Arkansas, Florida, and Indiana State. Given that the Super Regional starts on Saturday, I am curious as to whether Kentucky flipflops Niman and Moore, given how well Moore throws on full rest and how well Moore has pitched in both postseasons. I would also note that Niman is Kentucky's lefty starter. The decision about who to pitch on Sunday and Monday may depend on how Pooser throws. on Saturday. |
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 6, 2024 13:11:45 GMT -8
Seeing quite a few experts picking Beavers to win this series in 2 games. Fitt picked Beavs to win it all. Oregon State is the better team. Better offense. Kentucky is faster with a better defense. Oregon State has a better 1-2 punch at starter. May & Kmatz are one of the best 1-2 starting tandems in the country. Kentucky has a better bullpen at least statistically. If the Wildcats survive to Monday, they may have the advantage, especially if it winds up being Moore versus Segura. How much of a homefield advantage Kentucky enjoys will play into the series. The fact that all of the games right now are set to go at night may help mute that advantage, though. If Keljo keeps throwing like he threw the past two weeks, he may be the wildcard that clinches the series for Oregon State. Watch out for HBPs. Kentucky trains to take them. And with Bridger Holmes perhaps leading the nation in HBPs/IP, that may set up poorly for the backend of games. If you look at how Oregon State has done over the season on the road, it is hard to love the Beavs' chances. But if you look at how the team has played in May, you have to be optimistic that the good guys win the series. |
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 6, 2024 13:42:34 GMT -8
- 22-8 vs #1 rated conference Against some of the #1 rated conference. They did not play series against Texas A&M or Mississippi St., two of the top three from the west division. They did get the bottom two teams from the other division. Kentucky played in standings order: #1 Tennessee in Lexington. Tennessee went 2-1. Kentucky won the opener after Tennessee pulled their starter after double, long fly to center, and HBP in the first inning. The HBP was reviewed, because Tennessee thought that Grant Smith leaned into a pitch. #3 Arkansas in Lexington. Kentucky went 2-1. Hagen Smith outdueled Pooser, but Kentucky won both games on the backend to win the series. #6 Georgia in Lexington. Kentucky swept Georgia. #7 Alabama in Lexington.
Kentucky swept Alabama.
#8 Vanderbilt in Lexington.
Kentucky beat Vandy twice before Moore, on a short week, got crushed.
#9 Florida in Gainesville.
Kentucky went 2-1. Dominic Nieman was crushed on Saturday. Kentucky won in 10 innings to begin and end the series. Florida outscored Kentucky 26-20 but lost the series.
#10 South Carolina in Columbia.
South Carolina went 2-1. South Carolina outlasted Pooser and then crushed Moore.
#12 Ole Miss in Oxford.
Kentucky swept Ole Miss.
#13 Missouri in Columbia.
Kentucky went 2-1. Missouri won in 11 innings and lost a pitchers' duel on Saturday. Kentucky scored four unearned runs on Sunday to pull off a 7-6 comeback win.
#14 Auburn in Auburn.
Kentucky swept Auburn.
What a dream conference schedule! You do not play the fourth- and fifth-best teams. You play #1, #3, #6, #7, & #8 at home. You play #9, #10, #12, #13, & #14 on the road. That is a recipe for a 22-8 conference record, regardless of what conference you play in. |
|
|
|
Post by beaver1989 on Jun 6, 2024 13:56:58 GMT -8
"If you look at how Oregon State has done over the season on the road, it is hard to love the Beavs' chances. But if you look at how the team has played in May, you have to be optimistic that the good guys win the series."- Wilky
***********
I'd rather be in the Lexington SR than headed to Knoxville or the College Station SR.(Better to get them in Omaha.)
Kentucky is very good, but I like the way we played the last time we were on the road against a team named the Wildcats.
Game 1 9-2 blowout
Game 2 16-1 blowout against Arizona's best starter.
Game 3 3-4 squeaker for Arizona, when we had a 3-2 lead in the 9th.
Talent matters & if our talent "shows up" in Lexington, you'll see "one hell of a series."
|
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 6, 2024 14:10:54 GMT -8
"If you look at how Oregon State has done over the season on the road, it is hard to love the Beavs' chances. But if you look at how the team has played in May, you have to be optimistic that the good guys win the series."- Wilky *********** I'd rather be in the Lexington SR than headed to Knoxville or the College Station SR.(Better to get them in Omaha.) Kentucky is very good, but I like the way we played the last time we were on the road against a team named the Wildcats. Game 1 9-2 blowout Game 2 16-1 blowout against Arizona's best starter. Game 3 3-4 squeaker for Arizona, when we had a 3-2 lead in the 9th. Talent matters & if our talent "shows up" in Lexington, you'll see "one hell of a series." I also like that Oregon State is 2-1 all-time against teams named the Wildcats in the Super Regional. And those Wildcats (Kansas State) are in their first Super Regional in 11 years and second Super Regional ever. Oregon State has always played in Omaha in years that Kansas State has played in a Super Regional. 2013 and 2024 are Kansas State's best seasons in something like the last 90 years. I also still like that Oregon State is 2-1 in the postseason all-time against two teams, Kansas State and Virginia. And the two play in Charlottesville. Ridiculous! What are the chances? |
|
|
|
Post by beaver1989 on Jun 6, 2024 15:39:56 GMT -8
"If you look at how Oregon State has done over the season on the road, it is hard to love the Beavs' chances. But if you look at how the team has played in May, you have to be optimistic that the good guys win the series."- Wilky *********** I'd rather be in the Lexington SR than headed to Knoxville or the College Station SR.(Better to get them in Omaha.) Kentucky is very good, but I like the way we played the last time we were on the road against a team named the Wildcats. Game 1 9-2 blowout Game 2 16-1 blowout against Arizona's best starter. Game 3 3-4 squeaker for Arizona, when we had a 3-2 lead in the 9th. Talent matters & if our talent "shows up" in Lexington, you'll see "one hell of a series." I also like that Oregon State is 2-1 all-time against teams named the Wildcats in the Super Regional. And those Wildcats (Kansas State) are in their first Super Regional in 11 years and second Super Regional ever. Oregon State has always played in Omaha in years that Kansas State has played in a Super Regional. 2013 and 2024 are Kansas State's best seasons in something like the last 90 years. I also still like that Oregon State is 2-1 in the postseason all-time against two teams, Kansas State and Virginia. And the two play in Charlottesville. Ridiculous! What are the chances? Wilky, Don't forget our "good buddies" from North Carolina.😀(I love beating those guys when it matters.) We won the CWS in 2006, 2007, & 2018 when they made Omaha, in 2013 we both made it but lost & UCLA defeated Miss. St. For good luck we need NC to win their SR.😀 |
|
