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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 15, 2024 14:48:05 GMT -8
Maybe I’m wrong, but I thought WCC’s commissioner said men would have 18-game schedule and women 20. I have no doubt that you believe Beavers will be at least 4 games over .500 in conference. I disagree but unlike you I don’t label opinions I don’t agree with as laughable. I think at one point I posted OSU’s record against WCC teams since Tinkle has been here and it isn’t stellar. I believe it was a winning record but didn’t include much in the way of games against the good teams and did include losses against some of the bad teams. If I’m right about the 18-game schedule, that means you believe team will be at least 11-7 in conference. I believe commish also said not both and maybe neither would have a home game against Gonzaga. I think it is very likely we play WSU twice. So let’s say Beavs only play Gonzaga and St. Mary’s 3 times total and WSU twice. I can easily see Beavs losing all 5 of those games. Yes, maybe they win one, maybe even two, but I’m not betting on it. With 0-5 in those games, that means need to go 11-2 in other league games. In my scenario, Beavs would have 7 other home games. If they sweep those, that still means they need to go 4-2 on the road. I think it is likely Beavers lose at least 1 of those other home games, which means they’d need 5 road wins. We know the difficulty Beavs have on the road. Don’t really see that scenario as laughable. Throw in the likelihood of every current WCC team getting up to beat the big, bad teams from the Pac 12, and I think my scenario becomes even less “laughable.” As an aside, I predicted 5 conf wins this year in the pre-conference schedule poll. I believe you were at 7 or 8. Remind me how many conference games Beavs won this year. Five. Good hustle. I did not count on the Pac-12 being up year over, though I should have factored that in. Using Ken Pom, for example, Oregon State had a predicted conference record of 1-19. Instead, Oregon State went 5-15. A similar deviation would have made Oregon State 9-11. That is all to say that there is always a bit of guessing at all of this. But I cannot see Oregon State losing more than say once to any team that is currently in the middle or in the bottom half of the West Coast Conference. The odds seem remote. There is an appreciable talent differential. I went to Pepperdine Law. I played basketball at Firestone Fieldhouse, back when I lived in Malibu. It is like a nice, big high school gym, and Pepperdine so rarely fields a decent squad. I cannot imagine Oregon State losing to Pepperdine at Gill or at Firestone Fieldhouse. It seems so highly unlikely as to border on laughable. But maybe I just have a twisted sense of humor? Those games against Loyola, Pacific, Pepperdine, Portland, and San Diego should not be close. They are not like playing against bad Pac-12 teams. They are like playing against a good high school team. You see those teams beat good teams every once in a long while early in the season, while one team is jet lagged and the bad team is fresh. That happens. But even then it is rare. It is hard for me to see it happening more than once next year. Having said the foregoing, I also could not see 2006 Oregon State, fresh off a College World Series appearance come in and drop two of three at Eddy D. Field either, especially after running into the team at an In N Out. But it happened. It certainly is possible. It just seems laughably improbable. When I say laughable, usually it is because your post makes me laugh. As in, how does someone I know who is so highly intelligent in life and in basketball come up with this stuff? We are coming at this from different directions, which happens. I am sure that some of my stuff makes you respond similarly. No disrespect intended. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Mar 15, 2024 16:26:31 GMT -8
Maybe I’m wrong, but I thought WCC’s commissioner said men would have 18-game schedule and women 20. I have no doubt that you believe Beavers will be at least 4 games over .500 in conference. I disagree but unlike you I don’t label opinions I don’t agree with as laughable. I think at one point I posted OSU’s record against WCC teams since Tinkle has been here and it isn’t stellar. I believe it was a winning record but didn’t include much in the way of games against the good teams and did include losses against some of the bad teams. If I’m right about the 18-game schedule, that means you believe team will be at least 11-7 in conference. I believe commish also said not both and maybe neither would have a home game against Gonzaga. I think it is very likely we play WSU twice. So let’s say Beavs only play Gonzaga and St. Mary’s 3 times total and WSU twice. I can easily see Beavs losing all 5 of those games. Yes, maybe they win one, maybe even two, but I’m not betting on it. With 0-5 in those games, that means need to go 11-2 in other league games. In my scenario, Beavs would have 7 other home games. If they sweep those, that still means they need to go 4-2 on the road. I think it is likely Beavers lose at least 1 of those other home games, which means they’d need 5 road wins. We know the difficulty Beavs have on the road. Don’t really see that scenario as laughable. Throw in the likelihood of every current WCC team getting up to beat the big, bad teams from the Pac 12, and I think my scenario becomes even less “laughable.” As an aside, I predicted 5 conf wins this year in the pre-conference schedule poll. I believe you were at 7 or 8. Remind me how many conference games Beavs won this year. Five. Good hustle. I did not count on the Pac-12 being up year over, though I should have factored that in. Using Ken Pom, for example, Oregon State had a predicted conference record of 1-19. Instead, Oregon State went 5-15. A similar deviation would have made Oregon State 9-11. That is all to say that there is always a bit of guessing at all of this. But I cannot see Oregon State losing more than say once to any team that is currently in the middle or in the bottom half of the West Coast Conference. The odds seem remote. There is an appreciable talent differential. I went to Pepperdine Law. I played basketball at Firestone Fieldhouse, back when I lived in Malibu. It is like a nice, big high school gym, and Pepperdine so rarely fields a decent squad. I cannot imagine Oregon State losing to Pepperdine at Gill or at Firestone Fieldhouse. It seems so highly unlikely as to border on laughable. But maybe I just have a twisted sense of humor? Those games against Loyola, Pacific, Pepperdine, Portland, and San Diego should not be close. They are not like playing against bad Pac-12 teams. They are like playing against a good high school team. You see those teams beat good teams every once in a long while early in the season, while one team is jet lagged and the bad team is fresh. That happens. But even then it is rare. It is hard for me to see it happening more than once next year. Having said the foregoing, I also could not see 2006 Oregon State, fresh off a College World Series appearance come in and drop two of three at Eddy D. Field either, especially after running into the team at an In N Out. But it happened. It certainly is possible. It just seems laughably improbable. When I say laughable, usually it is because your post makes me laugh. As in, how does someone I know who is so highly intelligent in life and in basketball come up with this stuff? We are coming at this from different directions, which happens. I am sure that some of my stuff makes you respond similarly. No disrespect intended. You lost me when you said the conference is up this year. The conference sucks ass this year despite whatever stats you will pull out of nowhere. It will show in the tournament. Arizona is the only one that has a shot at the sweet 16. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 15, 2024 16:34:38 GMT -8
Five. Good hustle. I did not count on the Pac-12 being up year over, though I should have factored that in. Using Ken Pom, for example, Oregon State had a predicted conference record of 1-19. Instead, Oregon State went 5-15. A similar deviation would have made Oregon State 9-11. That is all to say that there is always a bit of guessing at all of this. But I cannot see Oregon State losing more than say once to any team that is currently in the middle or in the bottom half of the West Coast Conference. The odds seem remote. There is an appreciable talent differential. I went to Pepperdine Law. I played basketball at Firestone Fieldhouse, back when I lived in Malibu. It is like a nice, big high school gym, and Pepperdine so rarely fields a decent squad. I cannot imagine Oregon State losing to Pepperdine at Gill or at Firestone Fieldhouse. It seems so highly unlikely as to border on laughable. But maybe I just have a twisted sense of humor? Those games against Loyola, Pacific, Pepperdine, Portland, and San Diego should not be close. They are not like playing against bad Pac-12 teams. They are like playing against a good high school team. You see those teams beat good teams every once in a long while early in the season, while one team is jet lagged and the bad team is fresh. That happens. But even then it is rare. It is hard for me to see it happening more than once next year. Having said the foregoing, I also could not see 2006 Oregon State, fresh off a College World Series appearance come in and drop two of three at Eddy D. Field either, especially after running into the team at an In N Out. But it happened. It certainly is possible. It just seems laughably improbable. When I say laughable, usually it is because your post makes me laugh. As in, how does someone I know who is so highly intelligent in life and in basketball come up with this stuff? We are coming at this from different directions, which happens. I am sure that some of my stuff makes you respond similarly. No disrespect intended. You lost me when you said the conference is up this year. The conference sucks ass this year despite whatever stats you will pull out of nowhere. It will show in the tournament. Arizona is the only one that has a shot at the sweet 16. The Pac-12 is 84-45 in nonconference play, a 65.12% winning percentage. Last year, the Pac-12 won 63.36% of games in nonconference play. In 2018-19, the Pac-12 won 61.33% of games in nonconference play, the worst year in the past nine seasons. (It is harder for me to find comparable statistics before 2015-16.) Oregon was the only Pac-12 team in the Sweet 16 in 2019. UCLA was the only Pac-12 team in the Sweet 16 in 2023. The Pac-12 was worse last year and in 2018-19 than this year. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Mar 15, 2024 16:37:17 GMT -8
You lost me when you said the conference is up this year. The conference sucks ass this year despite whatever stats you will pull out of nowhere. It will show in the tournament. Arizona is the only one that has a shot at the sweet 16. The Pac-12 is 84-45 in nonconference play, a 65.12% winning percentage. Last year, the Pac-12 won 63.36% of games in nonconference play. In 2018-19, the Pac-12 won 61.33% of games in nonconference play, the worst year in the past nine seasons. (It is harder for me to find comparable statistics before 2015-16.) Oregon was the only Pac-12 team in the Sweet 16 in 2019. UCLA was the only Pac-12 team in the Sweet 16 in 2023. The Pac-12 was worse last year and in 2018-19 than this year. Again, basing the strength on their non-conference winning percentage is meaningless. Look at the schedules for this year. The pac 12 sucks this year. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 15, 2024 16:51:41 GMT -8
The Pac-12 is 84-45 in nonconference play, a 65.12% winning percentage. Last year, the Pac-12 won 63.36% of games in nonconference play. In 2018-19, the Pac-12 won 61.33% of games in nonconference play, the worst year in the past nine seasons. (It is harder for me to find comparable statistics before 2015-16.) Oregon was the only Pac-12 team in the Sweet 16 in 2019. UCLA was the only Pac-12 team in the Sweet 16 in 2023. The Pac-12 was worse last year and in 2018-19 than this year. Again, basing the strength on their non-conference winning percentage is meaningless. Look at the schedules for this year. The pac 12 sucks this year. Pac-12's conference-wide RPI was lower last year than this year. Average Pac-12 NET 2018-19: 105Average Pac-12 NET 2019-20: 61Average Pac-12 NET 2020-21: 62Average Pac-12 NET 2021-22: 93Average Pac-12 NET 2022-23: 96
Average Pac-12 NET 2023-24: 83
You are right. I was under-rating this year. This is the best year in three years. Cling to bulls#*t to the contrary, if you would like. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 15, 2024 17:01:15 GMT -8
Again, basing the strength on their non-conference winning percentage is meaningless. Look at the schedules for this year. The pac 12 sucks this year. Pac-12's conference-wide RPI was lower last year than this year. Average Pac-12 NET 2018-19: 105Average Pac-12 NET 2019-20: 61Average Pac-12 NET 2020-21: 62Average Pac-12 NET 2021-22: 93Average Pac-12 NET 2022-23: 96
Average Pac-12 NET 2023-24: 83
You are right. I was under-rating this year. This is the best year in three years. Cling to bulls#*t to the contrary, if you would like.If you remove Oregon State, i.e. the Beavs don't play themselves: Average Pac-12 NET 2018-19: 107 Average Pac-12 NET 2019-20: 60 Average Pac-12 NET 2020-21: 63 Average Pac-12 NET 2021-22: 78 Average Pac-12 NET 2022-23: 84 Average Pac-12 NET 2023-24: 76 |
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Post by Judge Smails on Mar 15, 2024 17:05:15 GMT -8
Pac-12's conference-wide RPI was lower last year than this year. Average Pac-12 NET 2018-19: 105Average Pac-12 NET 2019-20: 61Average Pac-12 NET 2020-21: 62Average Pac-12 NET 2021-22: 93Average Pac-12 NET 2022-23: 96
Average Pac-12 NET 2023-24: 83
You are right. I was under-rating this year. This is the best year in three years. Cling to bulls#*t to the contrary, if you would like.If you remove Oregon State, i.e. the Beavs don't play themselves: Average Pac-12 NET 2018-19: 107 Average Pac-12 NET 2019-20: 60 Average Pac-12 NET 2020-21: 63 Average Pac-12 NET 2021-22: 78 Average Pac-12 NET 2022-23: 84 Average Pac-12 NET 2023-24: 76 Again, you can pull whatever stats you want to out of your ass. The PAC 12 is not a good league this year. That will show in the tourney. And justifying why we finished last is just horses%#t. I love the “our record this year would have normally finished in 10-11 place”. Who the f%#* cares? Garbage is still garbage. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 15, 2024 17:19:46 GMT -8
If you remove Oregon State, i.e. the Beavs don't play themselves: Average Pac-12 NET 2018-19: 107 Average Pac-12 NET 2019-20: 60 Average Pac-12 NET 2020-21: 63 Average Pac-12 NET 2021-22: 78 Average Pac-12 NET 2022-23: 84 Average Pac-12 NET 2023-24: 76 Again, you can pull whatever stats you want to out of your ass. The PAC 12 is not a good league this year. That will show in the tourney. And justifying why we finished last is just horses%#t. I love the “our record this year would have normally finished in 10-11 place”. Who the f%#* cares? Garbage is still garbage.That's exactly what I think about your posts in this thread, brother. Pac-12 is up year over and two years over. You cite to nothing to the contrary, because nothing will support your position. I am going to just go ahead and assert that I am right and wait for someone like Georgie, Ohio, or Speak to show me why I am wrong, if they care enough to. Oregon State absolutely needs the Pac-12 to kill it in the Tourney. So, the Pac-12 is going to kill it in the Tourney. I will respectfully request that you quit being an a##hole and rooting against the Beavs' financial interests. Go Pac-12! Win it all for the Beavers & Cougs! After this year, y'all can go f#*k yourselves! |
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Post by Judge Smails on Mar 15, 2024 17:29:05 GMT -8
Again, you can pull whatever stats you want to out of your ass. The PAC 12 is not a good league this year. That will show in the tourney. And justifying why we finished last is just horses%#t. I love the “our record this year would have normally finished in 10-11 place”. Who the f%#* cares? Garbage is still garbage.That's exactly what I think about your posts in this thread, brother. Pac-12 is up year over and two years over. You cite to nothing to the contrary, because nothing will support your position. I am going to just go ahead and assert that I am right and wait for someone like Georgie, Ohio, or Speak to show me why I am wrong, if they care enough to. Oregon State absolutely needs the Pac-12 to kill it in the Tourney. So, the Pac-12 is going to kill it in the Tourney. I will respectfully request that you quit being an a##hole and rooting against the Beavs' financial interests. Go Pac-12! Win it all for the Beavers & Cougs! After this year, y'all can go f#*k yourselves! I’m not rooting against the Beavs interests. I’ve just watched a lot of PAC 12 games this year. Your statistical BS will have no factor come tourney time. It’s about as relevant as your historical stats that have zero basis on this year. |
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Post by ag87 on Mar 15, 2024 18:19:19 GMT -8
Oregon is looking to beat UA. I think they need to win the tourney to get into the tourney. I want them to do that for the units.
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Post by EmeraldEmpire on Mar 15, 2024 18:54:23 GMT -8
Oregon is looking to beat UA. I think they need to win the tourney to get into the tourney. I want them to do that for the units. Oregon knocks off UA 67-59 to advance to the championship game ... kinda figured that would be the way the game went because the Wildcats already have their ticket punched for the dance and Oregon has to win the tourney to get their invite. UA is now like oh well we have a few extra days now to rest before the dance begins darn lol |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Mar 16, 2024 9:34:29 GMT -8
If you remove Oregon State, i.e. the Beavs don't play themselves: Average Pac-12 NET 2018-19: 107 Average Pac-12 NET 2019-20: 60 Average Pac-12 NET 2020-21: 63 Average Pac-12 NET 2021-22: 78 Average Pac-12 NET 2022-23: 84 Average Pac-12 NET 2023-24: 76 Again, you can pull whatever stats you want to out of your ass. The PAC 12 is not a good league this year. That will show in the tourney. And justifying why we finished last is just horses%#t. I love the “our record this year would have normally finished in 10-11 place”. Who the f%#* cares? Garbage is still garbage. Smails, that very well could be true. However, they also said the Pac-12 sucks in 2021 and we went out and earned 19 units. My point is, you never know. I think every Pac-12 team (Arizona, WSU, Colorado and Oregon, which I think wins tonight) can win at least one game and possibly two. That would be 12 units, a $24 million going-away present. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Mar 16, 2024 9:47:27 GMT -8
Again, you can pull whatever stats you want to out of your ass. The PAC 12 is not a good league this year. That will show in the tourney. And justifying why we finished last is just horses%#t. I love the “our record this year would have normally finished in 10-11 place”. Who the f%#* cares? Garbage is still garbage. Smails, that very well could be true. However, they also said the Pac-12 sucks in 2021 and we went out and earned 19 units. My point is, you never know. I think every Pac-12 team (Arizona, WSU, Colorado and Oregon, which I think wins tonight) can win at least one game and possibly two. That would be 12 units, a $24 million going-away present. I wasn’t saying no PAC 12 teams would win a game. Just hard to see a deep run from anyone. But, yes, could have said the same thing in 2021. Does that mean I’m supposed to root for uo today, so we get a 4th team in? I refuse to do that. |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Mar 16, 2024 20:50:26 GMT -8
Smails, that very well could be true. However, they also said the Pac-12 sucks in 2021 and we went out and earned 19 units. My point is, you never know. I think every Pac-12 team (Arizona, WSU, Colorado and Oregon, which I think wins tonight) can win at least one game and possibly two. That would be 12 units, a $24 million going-away present. I wasn’t saying no PAC 12 teams would win a game. Just hard to see a deep run from anyone. But, yes, could have said the same thing in 2021. Does that mean I’m supposed to root for uo today, so we get a 4th team in? I refuse to do that.Me too. But they won. So I'll try to polish a turd by gladly acknowledging they earned us and Wazzu $1 million each spread out over the next six years by winning tonight. |
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Post by EmeraldEmpire on Mar 16, 2024 21:43:08 GMT -8
I wasn’t saying no PAC 12 teams would win a game. Just hard to see a deep run from anyone. But, yes, could have said the same thing in 2021. Does that mean I’m supposed to root for uo today, so we get a 4th team in? I refuse to do that.Me too. But they won. So I'll try to polish a turd by gladly acknowledging they earned us and Wazzu $1 million each spread out over the next six years by winning tonight. |
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