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Post by rgeorge on Oct 3, 2023 12:12:27 GMT -8
And... quit pretending a B12 affiliation is the "best thing". We have NO IDEA... how any of this would work or effect our AD for some years down the road. But, to state it is a sure thing OSU will fade off into oblivion if it is not the B12 is nonsense. I'm pretty sure with the history of posts on this board, even those thinking the B12 is a sure fire positive will soon find plenty to complain about. I mean the last to be invited is sure to be conspired against!  Agreed. But why do you have such a big problem with the possibility that OSU goes to the Big 12? I do not have anything against what is determined to be the best option. As of now, the B12 has said repeatedly they are done. They did not include OSU/WSU in any of their initial offers, yet Arizona (hoops), and ASU (  really?), Utah (football, recent WBB), Buffs (hype and ??) were. Hence, I don't think it is reasonable to assume anything but OSU would be classified as a "charity" case forced upon them by media partners. I also doubt OSU/WSU would get more than a 1/2 share and that is even a bigger insult. Although travel is not significantly more it is more and cuts into that money. As far as the current media valuations of the MWC members... that WAS their market valuation. The market is rapidly evolving and a new, revamped P5 conference with a lot of inventory is NOT going to receive that amount. I've heard Apple is lurking and will be involved in college sports broadcasting... streaming and other avenues that they can easily afford to acquire. So, at this point my realistic approach says the MWC is the most likely to happen and could be by far the best avenue. Pac12 money or not (IF it is a yes then a huge plus to not go elsewhere), the merger allows an ease of scheduling for now. It keeps us in a P5 conference with CFP shares. And, it allows OSU to be the big fish vs a charity case. And, personally I could see the Pac14 become a better overall conference than the B16. That conference doesn't impress me top to bottom as a spot I want OSU to be seen a the ugly step child. |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Oct 3, 2023 12:13:17 GMT -8
And... quit pretending a B12 affiliation is the "best thing". We have NO IDEA... how any of this would work or effect our AD for some years down the road. But, to state it is a sure thing OSU will fade off into oblivion if it is not the B12 is nonsense. I'm pretty sure with the history of posts on this board, even those thinking the B12 is a sure fire positive will soon find plenty to complain about. I mean the last to be invited is sure to be conspired against! Agreed. But why do you have such a big problem with the possibility that OSU goes to the Big 12? The Big 12 was on the verge of following the path of KMart just a couple of months ago. They just brought in the 4 mountain schools to try to avert that from happening, but with the exception of Utah they really didn't gain much in the football area. Maybe the mountain schools are kinda like KMart's push to expand the Martha Stewart Collection... didn't change the trajectory. I'm not saying that league is going to tank, more like it's not the most stable of situations, and if creating a self-determanant situation with potential is possible, now may be the time to take the risk. |
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Post by atownbeaver on Oct 3, 2023 12:13:46 GMT -8
I don't think we'd fade into oblivion without the B12... but I think the one thing we do know is there is no clear path to the same amount of money the B12 could pay if we go it alone, in the near term (next 10 years). We'd be taking OSU and WSU and selecting in a group of schools that currently are worth $4 million a year in media money. And while there are some good dang schools there for football, Fresno St. Boise St. Utah St, San Diego St etc... none of them command major media payouts. The new Pac-12 simply would not get anything close to what a share of the B12 would be, period. If everything goes a good as humanly possible for OSU: we get full control of the Pac-2. We get the CFP payouts, we split that with ONLY WSU. new Pac-2 members join and do not get those cuts... we still burn through that "money in the bank" in about 5 or 6 years at best with the deficit in media payout. I am skeptical if we get a B12 offer, it is a full share... but even a half share is more than what a Pac-12 build from MWC would pay us from CBS... Your last sentence assumes we join the MWC and under their existing contract. I'm pretty sure that's off the table - We could have done that any time in the last month without hiring consultants and filing lawsuits and approaching the state legislature AND wasting time. There's no telling what plan OSU and WSU have tucked away in their back pockets, but I suspect it's more lucrative than just joining the MWC. We certainly renegotiate media, MWC expires in 2025 or 2026 anyways (can't remember). What what I am certain of is that a Pac-12 built from OSU/WSU and the MWC will not get $30M a team. They'd get maybe $10 or $12M a team. Like I've said in other posts. Boon for MWC, killer for OSU/WSU. |
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 3, 2023 12:21:13 GMT -8
Your last sentence assumes we join the MWC and under their existing contract. I'm pretty sure that's off the table - We could have done that any time in the last month without hiring consultants and filing lawsuits and approaching the state legislature AND wasting time. There's no telling what plan OSU and WSU have tucked away in their back pockets, but I suspect it's more lucrative than just joining the MWC. We certainly renegotiate media, MWC expires in 2025 or 2026 anyways (can't remember). What what I am certain of is that a Pac-12 built from OSU/WSU and the MWC will not get $30M a team. They'd get maybe $10 or $12M a team. Like I've said in other posts. Boon for MWC, killer for OSU/WSU. The old media goes out the window if the MWC dissolves... no exit fees, no contract. The new deal does not have to be equal payouts (they already do this with BSU)... you can double MWC to $8-10 mil per (and would they complain?) and OSU/WSU can be at $22+ mil. OSU and WSU use Pac12 dollars to entice this model with extra $$ and are able to use the rest to easily surpass a 1/2 share of any B12 charity offer for over a decade. And, certainly until any media deal or realignment occurs in the near future. The key that is lurking... the court decision... and is Apple or ?? lurking waiting for the court decision? As there is no reason to let any media deal slip until the court decides ownership of the future Pac12 $$ |
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Post by hottubbeaver on Oct 3, 2023 12:27:39 GMT -8
Your last sentence assumes we join the MWC and under their existing contract. I'm pretty sure that's off the table - We could have done that any time in the last month without hiring consultants and filing lawsuits and approaching the state legislature AND wasting time. There's no telling what plan OSU and WSU have tucked away in their back pockets, but I suspect it's more lucrative than just joining the MWC. We certainly renegotiate media, MWC expires in 2025 or 2026 anyways (can't remember). What what I am certain of is that a Pac-12 built from OSU/WSU and the MWC will not get $30M a team. They'd get maybe $10 or $12M a team. Like I've said in other posts. Boon for MWC, killer for OSU/WSU. Isn't the minimum 8 teams to retain P5 status after the 2 year grace period? IF we win in court, if we keep the PAC heart beat going, and if we stand to keep receiving the post season football and basketball revenues as a result, then it appears possible. Using the number thrown out there of 320,000,000 / 8 = 40MM per. That's net of any new media deal and also loaded with ifs. |
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Post by atownbeaver on Oct 3, 2023 12:28:04 GMT -8
We certainly renegotiate media, MWC expires in 2025 or 2026 anyways (can't remember). What what I am certain of is that a Pac-12 built from OSU/WSU and the MWC will not get $30M a team. They'd get maybe $10 or $12M a team. Like I've said in other posts. Boon for MWC, killer for OSU/WSU. The old media goes out the window if the MWC dissolves... no exit fees, no contract. The new deal does not have to be equal payouts (they already do this with BSU)... you can double MWC to $8-10 mil per (and would they complain?) and OSU/WSU can be at $22+ mil. OSU and WSU use Pac12 dollars to entice this model with extra $$ and are able to use the rest to easily surpass a 1/2 share of any B12 charity offer for over a decade. And, certainly until any media deal or realignment occurs in the near future. The key that is lurking... the court decision... and is Apple or ?? lurking waiting for the court decision? As there is no reason to let any media deal slip until the court decides ownership of the future Pac12 $$ I'd support Apple TV type deal. I think it is the future for sure. The one Fox and ESPN were desperate to prevent. |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Oct 3, 2023 12:31:30 GMT -8
We certainly renegotiate media, MWC expires in 2025 or 2026 anyways (can't remember). What what I am certain of is that a Pac-12 built from OSU/WSU and the MWC will not get $30M a team. They'd get maybe $10 or $12M a team. Like I've said in other posts. Boon for MWC, killer for OSU/WSU. The old media goes out the window if the MWC dissolves... no exit fees, no contract. The new deal does not have to be equal payouts (they already do this with BSU)... you can double MWC to $8-10 mil per (and would they complain?) and OSU/WSU can be at $22+ mil. OSU and WSU use Pac12 dollars to entice this model with extra $$ and are able to use the rest to easily surpass a 1/2 share of any B12 charity offer for over a decade. And, certainly until any media deal or realignment occurs in the near future. The key that is lurking... the court decision... and is Apple or ?? lurking waiting for the court decision? As there is no reason to let any media deal slip until the court decides ownership of the future Pac12 $$ Exactly. In my opinion we have some people assuming the worst outcomes and ignoring outcomes with a potential upside. I'm thinking the 2 schools have a LOT better idea of what the potential upsides are than any of us. |
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 3, 2023 12:32:58 GMT -8
The old media goes out the window if the MWC dissolves... no exit fees, no contract. The new deal does not have to be equal payouts (they already do this with BSU)... you can double MWC to $8-10 mil per (and would they complain?) and OSU/WSU can be at $22+ mil. OSU and WSU use Pac12 dollars to entice this model with extra $$ and are able to use the rest to easily surpass a 1/2 share of any B12 charity offer for over a decade. And, certainly until any media deal or realignment occurs in the near future. The key that is lurking... the court decision... and is Apple or ?? lurking waiting for the court decision? As there is no reason to let any media deal slip until the court decides ownership of the future Pac12 $$ Exactly. In my opinion we have some people assuming the worst outcomes and ignoring outcomes with a potential upside. I'm thinking the 2 schools have a LOT better idea of what the potential upsides are than any of us. WTF?? You mean this board isn't charge? |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Oct 3, 2023 12:54:04 GMT -8
We certainly renegotiate media, MWC expires in 2025 or 2026 anyways (can't remember). What what I am certain of is that a Pac-12 built from OSU/WSU and the MWC will not get $30M a team. They'd get maybe $10 or $12M a team. Like I've said in other posts. Boon for MWC, killer for OSU/WSU. Isn't the minimum 8 teams to retain P5 status after the 2 year grace period? IF we win in court, if we keep the PAC heart beat going, and if we stand to keep receiving the post season football and basketball revenues as a result, then it appears possible. Using the number thrown out there of 320,000,000 / 8 = 40MM per. That's net of any new media deal and also loaded with ifs. In order to retain FBS status, teams must be in an 8+ team conference or independent. |
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Post by bvrbooster on Oct 3, 2023 13:35:58 GMT -8
Not one of us has the slightest idea what's going to happen, unless The Glove is actually Scott Barnes cleverly disguised as Gary Payton.
But I will say this:
I have been very favorably impressed by the presidents and athletic directors of both Oregon State and Washington State. I think they are in complete agreement and alignment, and neither will do something that is detrimental to the other. This is as it should be.
I get the impression that their strategy vis a vis the PAC is to fight to the death for all of its assets to belong to the two of them as of August 1, 2024, and they will give no quarter to the traitorous ten. I am not privy to any information that would confirm that, but that's my belief. This, also, is as it should be.
Finally, and most importantly, I am firmly of the opinion that, when all is finally ended, and the hindsight and second guessing has begun, all of them will be able to truthfully state that they explored every option and opportunity, properly did all due diligence, and cut what, in their opinion, was the best deal for the future of Oregon State and Washington State.
That's all that can be asked.
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Post by 93beav on Oct 3, 2023 13:54:06 GMT -8
I'm still curious exactly what people think will happen or what they are aiming for if we go to the Big12 (or even, for fantasy's sake, say we go to the B1G). Like, what are you expecting to happen that won't happen otherwise?
Are you excited because you think we'll have a better shot at a national championship? Do you even care if OSU wins a national championship?
Are you excited because we'll have more national publicity? Do you care if we have national publicity?
Are you excited because we'll play former PAC-12 teams or because we'll play Kansas? (I mean, personally, I get a little excited by the idea of a Halloween game with Oklahoma State U., but that's it).
I'm just having a hard time reading what people think is going to happen if we're in the Big12 that they can't live without?
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Post by bennyskid on Oct 3, 2023 14:20:20 GMT -8
What can't we live without? About $30m/yr and the reasonable expectation that the money will continue to flow for some time. Even if we win the $300m lottery, that money won't last forever and the Pac-Mountain TV rights aren't going to be close to $30m/yr. And it will take $30m/yr to keep coaches like Smith, Bray and Canham.
That said, I might end up liking the B12 more than the old Pac. Winning the conference championship is a feasible goal and the playing field is a lot more level. Our path to the CFP is more clear and if we fall short, we'll have some new bowl ties that aren't in El Paso.
Outside football, the B12 is way better than the alternatives. The MW is good at basketball and nothing else. The B12 is excellent at basketball and decent at everything else.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Oct 3, 2023 14:20:37 GMT -8
I'm still curious exactly what people think will happen or what they are aiming for if we go to the Big12 (or even, for fantasy's sake, say we go to the B1G). Like, what are you expecting to happen that won't happen otherwise? Are you excited because you think we'll have a better shot at a national championship? Do you even care if OSU wins a national championship? Are you excited because we'll have more national publicity? Do you care if we have national publicity? Are you excited because we'll play former PAC-12 teams or because we'll play Kansas? (I mean, personally, I get a little excited by the idea of a Halloween game with Oklahoma State U., but that's it). I'm just having a hard time reading what people think is going to happen if we're in the Big12 that they can't live without? More national publicity, playing teams with which Oregon State shares more of a history, and more stability. There are things to be said for plowing a new road, but that's exactly what the Donners did that in 1846, and that did not exactly in in all smiles and sunshine. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Oct 3, 2023 14:26:46 GMT -8
What can't we live without? About $30m/yr and the reasonable expectation that the money will continue to flow for some time. Even if we win the $300m lottery, that money won't last forever and the Pac-Mountain TV rights aren't going to be close to $30m/yr. And it will take $30m/yr to keep coaches like Smith, Bray and Canham. That said, I might end up liking the B12 more than the old Pac. Winning the conference championship is a feasible goal and the playing field is a lot more level. Our path to the CFP is more clear and if we fall short, we'll have some new bowl ties that aren't in El Paso. Outside football, the B12 is way better than the alternatives. The MW is good at basketball and nothing else. The B12 is excellent at basketball and decent at everything else. Pac-12's #3 and #4 go to the Holiday and Las Vegas Bowls. Big 12's #3 and #4 go to the Taxact Texas and Cheez-It Bowls. I don't think that you're getting as big of an upgrade as you might surmise. |
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Post by 93beav on Oct 3, 2023 14:43:18 GMT -8
What can't we live without? About $30m/yr and the reasonable expectation that the money will continue to flow for some time. Even if we win the $300m lottery, that money won't last forever and the Pac-Mountain TV rights aren't going to be close to $30m/yr. And it will take $30m/yr to keep coaches like Smith, Bray and Canham. That said, I might end up liking the B12 more than the old Pac. Winning the conference championship is a feasible goal and the playing field is a lot more level. Our path to the CFP is more clear and if we fall short, we'll have some new bowl ties that aren't in El Paso. Outside football, the B12 is way better than the alternatives. The MW is good at basketball and nothing else. The B12 is excellent at basketball and decent at everything else. Sure but...maybe I'm phrasing my question wrong but...then what? Let's say someone gives you $1 billion dollars for OSU. I'm going to put this in facetious terms to try and understand - is your life more enriched because OSU has a shot, albeit very rare and unlikely, at a national championship? If OSU fell out of Division 1, what would happen (to you personally)? Sorry, maybe I'm being too philosophical in trying to understand this. I mean, you know upfront that even if you get into the Big12, you're already $30million+ behind all the teams in the B1G and the SEC. Everyone is constantly scrambling to make more money because that seemingly puts them "on top". If the NCAA had equal revenue share, this would be moot, but, here we are. So people spend all of this time and emotional energy to get to point X, and I'm just trying to figure out what that gets people personally? Additional pride in OSU because we make X dollars per year? |
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really?), Utah (football, recent WBB), Buffs (hype and ??) were. Hence, I don't think it is reasonable to assume anything but OSU would be classified as a "charity" case forced upon them by media partners. I also doubt OSU/WSU would get more than a 1/2 share and that is even a bigger insult. Although travel is not significantly more it is more and cuts into that money.
