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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Oct 3, 2023 8:51:05 GMT -8
So lets actually discuss it. If drunkandstoopidbeav had paid closer attention, he would have understood the main point. The $320m may be an estimate, and (of course) it will be subject to litigation, but it really exists. And as long as it exists, and OSU/WSU have claims on it that a court might ratify, there is hope. The money exists because the CFB contracts were written in an odd way. There was no way that all of D1-A football was going to sit still while certain conferences created a playoff and arbitrarily took the vast majority of the money. So the CFB wasn't created by the conferences, per se. It was a drafted as an agreement among the major bowls - Rose, Orange, Sugar - who happened to have contracts with those major conferences to host their champions. The "Power 5" became the "Power 5" because they already tie-ins with these bowls. The non-P5 schools had little to hang a complaint upon, as they never had access to these bowls in the first place. They were given a small cut of the profits and an infinitesimal chance of getting a team into the playoffs and were sent away. Sp the documents are all written with reference to the three bowls and the five conferences affiliated with them. That didn't change as the system expanded - no thought the Pac would implode. The apt analogy here is that the stock that the Pac12 had in "Rose Bowl Inc." turned into stock into "CFB, Inc.", and OSU and WSU control that stock. That stock pays dividends that are likely over $100m/yr. There are multiple avenues for legal challenge. The CFB will try to claim that the Pac is no longer a conference, of course. But in the contract, it clearly was the bowl that mattered, not the conference. The P5 conferences don't have preferential treatment because they are strong conferences, but because they gave up their bowl affiliations. So the relative strength or weakness of the Pac is irrelevant - only that it once had that contract with the Rose Bowl. The rat-bastards that abandoned the Pac will surely try to claim a share in that money. I think that's a harder claim to adjudicate, but we're lucky that USC and UCLA left first and allowed the conference to set a bunch of precedents. (And then Colorado bailed and we reinforced some of those precedents.) But this doesn't get to litigation unless everyone is an idiot. It's one of those cases in which every party benefits from a settlement, even if they think they are 100% in the right. I was paying attention. We’ve been talking about money for weeks, and that specific scenario for a while now. It didn’t start yesterday and it just doesn’t mean OSU and WSU are definitely going to the Big 12. That’s all. If you want to discuss it, assuming OSU and WSU go independent for 2 years and win the court battles, I think it’s every bit as likely they take that 360 million each year and use some of it to buy out 4-5 teams after next year, and another 4- 5 the following year and rebuild a conference rather than going to the big 12…. But that’s another theory not really wasting all that much bandwidth on. |
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Post by spudbeaver on Oct 3, 2023 9:28:44 GMT -8
“At least one poster is claiming to have sources telling him this is going to happen and is "breaking" the news.”  Yep. Nothing of the sort. I merely described a poster who was touting his "breaking" news. I believe I made it perfectly clear in the OP that none of the posts I saw had legitimate journalism credentials. I basically just wanted some actual discussion about why it might be happening...not "yawn." Probably was expecting too much. Well, if it’s true, great I guess. I’m not really thrilled with it. What I was trying to convey was that there have been literally hundreds of theories, rumors, close sources, strategies, possibilities, models, accounting, supposing, mulling, dreaming, hoping, agonizing and finally….skeptical apathy maybe? Until something concrete from a decision maker is publicly stated. That’s just me. You do what you like, it doesn’t bother me in the least. |
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 3, 2023 10:12:55 GMT -8
So lets actually discuss it. If drunkandstoopidbeav had paid closer attention, he would have understood the main point. The $320m may be an estimate, and (of course) it will be subject to litigation, but it really exists. And as long as it exists, and OSU/WSU have claims on it that a court might ratify, there is hope. The money exists because the CFB contracts were written in an odd way. There was no way that all of D1-A football was going to sit still while certain conferences created a playoff and arbitrarily took the vast majority of the money. So the CFB wasn't created by the conferences, per se. It was a drafted as an agreement among the major bowls - Rose, Orange, Sugar - who happened to have contracts with those major conferences to host their champions. The "Power 5" became the "Power 5" because they already tie-ins with these bowls. The non-P5 schools had little to hang a complaint upon, as they never had access to these bowls in the first place. They were given a small cut of the profits and an infinitesimal chance of getting a team into the playoffs and were sent away. Sp the documents are all written with reference to the three bowls and the five conferences affiliated with them. That didn't change as the system expanded - no thought the Pac would implode. The apt analogy here is that the stock that the Pac12 had in "Rose Bowl Inc." turned into stock into "CFB, Inc.", and OSU and WSU control that stock. That stock pays dividends that are likely over $100m/yr. There are multiple avenues for legal challenge. The CFB will try to claim that the Pac is no longer a conference, of course. But in the contract, it clearly was the bowl that mattered, not the conference. The P5 conferences don't have preferential treatment because they are strong conferences, but because they gave up their bowl affiliations. So the relative strength or weakness of the Pac is irrelevant - only that it once had that contract with the Rose Bowl. The rat-bastards that abandoned the Pac will surely try to claim a share in that money. I think that's a harder claim to adjudicate, but we're lucky that USC and UCLA left first and allowed the conference to set a bunch of precedents. (And then Colorado bailed and we reinforced some of those precedents.) But this doesn't get to litigation unless everyone is an idiot. It's one of those cases in which every party benefits from a settlement, even if they think they are 100% in the right. I was paying attention. We’ve been talking about money for weeks, and that specific scenario for a while now. It didn’t start yesterday and it just doesn’t mean OSU and WSU are definitely going to the Big 12. That’s all. If you want to discuss it, assuming OSU and WSU go independent for 2 years and win the court battles, I think it’s every bit as likely they take that 360 million each year and use some of it to buy out 4-5 teams after next year, and another 4- 5 the following year and rebuild a conference rather than going to the big 12…. But that’s another theory not really wasting all that much bandwidth on. And, the idea that the P5 had anything to do with bowl affiliations is BS. The P5 is an NCAA, not CFP, creation. It was agreed to and set up long before there was a CFP. |
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Post by ag87 on Oct 3, 2023 10:18:07 GMT -8
I'm ok with it but not thrilled. The northwest schools should stay together and frankly the west coast schools should. But that ship has sailed at least until the B10 "encourages" the PST schools to go home. The new part I heard is the B10 is not in play because of money. Per their reporting our leverage is sufficient for the B12 but not the B10. I believe uw and tsdtr got a half share at about 40m. The b12's shares are 32m. Not a rocket scientist but that's not a huge difference. But those two traitor schools do have more eyeballs (apparently). Also they said the ACC Zis going away from publics and more towards privates. Cal thinks they are a private.
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 3, 2023 10:20:56 GMT -8
Yep. Nothing of the sort. I merely described a poster who was touting his "breaking" news. I believe I made it perfectly clear in the OP that none of the posts I saw had legitimate journalism credentials. I basically just wanted some actual discussion about why it might be happening...not "yawn." Probably was expecting too much. Well, if it’s true, great I guess. I’m not really thrilled with it. What I was trying to convey was that there have been literally hundreds of theories, rumors, close sources, strategies, possibilities, models, accounting, supposing, mulling, dreaming, hoping, agonizing and finally….skeptical apathy maybe? Until something concrete from a decision maker is publicly stated. That’s just me. You do what you like, it doesn’t bother me in the least. And, the funny thing, many on here keep mentioning/posting these complete unsubstantiated pod casts with the caveat that the "have no substance... legit source... etc.". Hence, they also are the ones that continue the rumor mill of complete nonsense as it fits their narrative of what is "best" for OSU. But, the "I told you so crowd" likes to toss as much crap against the wall as possible... eventually something will stick for them. Because as we all know it is a sure thing OSU coaches, recruits, and programs will just fall of the face of the earth unless it is part of the B12. I mean we've heard that is 100's of posts here, so it must be true! Reminds me of the GAG hiring... it was an incredible boon of good fortune for OSU. A sure fire positive. Anyone mentioning player and fan complaints and locker room strife was ridiculed. They were wrong then, and will be here if OSU goes it as the P2 or a MWC combo. OSU will be fine as it appears that some have OSU's overall level of athletic department recruiting and prestige on a far different level than is reality. Could the B12 change their mind? Sure, when their media partners allow or demand it. The B12 has repeatedly said it was done. There would be no reason for them to respond to fan based pod casts. (Kinda like OSU coaches would not play AC because fans wanted to see him!  ) |
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Post by 93beav on Oct 3, 2023 10:28:46 GMT -8
The only thing I haven't seen is a denial by the Big 12 commissioner. If he has, I haven't seen it but that isn't surprising. Now, I still won't believe it until I hear it from Barnes. The only other thing I can think of is that there are people out there keeping the rumors alive thinking that will help make it happen. The one thing the pro-Big12 crowd has going for it is the fact that there haven't been any denials by the Big12 mouthpieces in Dennis Dodd or Brett McMurphy. I seem to recall one of them pouring water on the idea several weeks ago. Either the story isn't important enough for them to refute, or they are tired of refuting it, or it's true. The best thing to do is sit back and wait and see what happens. Mid-November isn't that far away. |
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Post by grayman on Oct 3, 2023 10:33:52 GMT -8
Yep. Nothing of the sort. I merely described a poster who was touting his "breaking" news. I believe I made it perfectly clear in the OP that none of the posts I saw had legitimate journalism credentials. I basically just wanted some actual discussion about why it might be happening...not "yawn." Probably was expecting too much. Well, if it’s true, great I guess. I’m not really thrilled with it. What I was trying to convey was that there have been literally hundreds of theories, rumors, close sources, strategies, possibilities, models, accounting, supposing, mulling, dreaming, hoping, agonizing and finally….skeptical apathy maybe? Until something concrete from a decision maker is publicly stated. That’s just me. You do what you like, it doesn’t bother me in the least. Fair enough. And I don't disagree that there's a lot of rumors, etc., out there and that can get old. But there's an underlying truth that has triggered all of it, which is, of course, the end of the Pac-12 as we knew it and the resulting current status of OSU and WSU. Personally, the whole situation is fascinating to me, so when there's an uptick in the "smoke" it piques my interest. Anyway, thanks for your comment. |
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Post by spudbeaver on Oct 3, 2023 10:40:17 GMT -8
Well, if it’s true, great I guess. I’m not really thrilled with it. What I was trying to convey was that there have been literally hundreds of theories, rumors, close sources, strategies, possibilities, models, accounting, supposing, mulling, dreaming, hoping, agonizing and finally….skeptical apathy maybe? Until something concrete from a decision maker is publicly stated. That’s just me. You do what you like, it doesn’t bother me in the least. Fair enough. And I don't disagree that there's a lot of rumors, etc., out there and that can get old. But there's an underlying truth that has triggered all of it, which is, of course, the end of the Pac-12 as we knew it and the resulting current status of OSU and WSU. Personally, the whole situation is fascinating to me, so when there's an uptick in the "smoke" it piques my interest. Anyway, thanks for your comment. I want some resolution, but I don’t want the P2 to act without exploring all of the options, plus the ones I hadn’t thought of. Internally conflicted!! |
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 3, 2023 10:42:16 GMT -8
The only thing I haven't seen is a denial by the Big 12 commissioner. If he has, I haven't seen it but that isn't surprising. Now, I still won't believe it until I hear it from Barnes. The only other thing I can think of is that there are people out there keeping the rumors alive thinking that will help make it happen. The one thing the pro-Big12 crowd has going for it is the fact that there haven't been any denials by the Big12 mouthpieces in Dennis Dodd or Brett McMurphy. I seem to recall one of them pouring water on the idea several weeks ago. Either the story isn't important enough for them to refute, or they are tired of refuting it, or it's true. The best thing to do is sit back and wait and see what happens. Mid-November isn't that far away. And... quit pretending a B12 affiliation is the "best thing". We have NO IDEA... how any of this would work or effect our AD for some years down the road. But, to state it is a sure thing OSU will fade off into oblivion if it is not the B12 is nonsense. I'm pretty sure with the history of posts on this board, even those thinking the B12 is a sure fire positive will soon find plenty to complain about. I mean the last to be invited is sure to be conspired against!  |
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Post by atownbeaver on Oct 3, 2023 11:23:25 GMT -8
There's been a bunch of posts on X today saying that OSU is headed to the Big 12. At least one poster is claiming to have sources telling him this is going to happen and is "breaking" the news. I have not seen anything that I would consider to be from a known journalist or journalistic site but it's definitely gained steam for whatever reason. There seems to be a theory that UO might help make it happen financially. This doesn't seem all that likely to me but I haven't really looked into it much. Also, some are taking the news that Barnes is staying as an indication that he thinks OSU will be joining the Big 12. I think more people are looking at the scenario regarding a continued Pac conference (OSU and WSU) landing a CFP payday that might grow to more than $300 million soon and the likelihood that the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 would want to eliminate the Pac completely to share that extra money. That would be through an agreement leading OSU and WSU to the Big 12. Again, I'm just pointing out that there's been quite a bit more buzz starting this afternoon or so on social media about OSU going to the Big 12. And I, FWIW, find that interesting. I think the bottom line is this: there is A LOT of money tied up in CFP payouts, now and in the future. Maybe that $320M over the next two years isn't up for grabs for other conferences... either OSU/WSU keep it, or the Pac-12 divides it up among the 12... OR maybe if the conference dissolves that money is up for grabs to the other 4 conferences as the pay outs get redistributed. Who knows the fine details, but my gut tells me the current money isn't really the target... But what I think we also know it isn't just this year. It is the next round of CFB payouts, and if the Pac-12 is still kicking around in whatever form it is, that is a share that needs to go 5 ways instead of 4. It is that WSU president is still the chair of the committee and the gate keeper to the future. If the 4 remaining major conference want to boost that CFP payout to their conference, it just feels like all roads run through WSU and by virtue OSU that have remained a strong bargaining unit. The Big-12 extending an offer is a way for the Big-12 to boost it's future share of CFP money because they can ensure the Pac-12 really does dissolve. It reinforces a west coast pod for the newer teams, and quite frankly OSU and WSU are currently pretty good teams, so it also increases their odds the conference hold teams that can earn premier bowl spots. OSU also generally has solid non-revenue sports, which while not being a major driver, is a factor. Baseball will be enticing for sure. Long story short here, the rumor is a lot more believable than unbelievable from my opinion. It doesn't mean it is true, but I think it is absolutely rooted in reality. |
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Post by grayman on Oct 3, 2023 11:30:52 GMT -8
Well, if it’s true, great I guess. I’m not really thrilled with it. What I was trying to convey was that there have been literally hundreds of theories, rumors, close sources, strategies, possibilities, models, accounting, supposing, mulling, dreaming, hoping, agonizing and finally….skeptical apathy maybe? Until something concrete from a decision maker is publicly stated. That’s just me. You do what you like, it doesn’t bother me in the least. And, the funny thing, many on here keep mentioning/posting these complete unsubstantiated pod casts with the caveat that the "have no substance... legit source... etc.". Hence, they also are the ones that continue the rumor mill of complete nonsense as it fits their narrative of what is "best" for OSU. But, the "I told you so crowd" likes to toss as much crap against the wall as possible... eventually something will stick for them. Because as we all know it is a sure thing OSU coaches, recruits, and programs will just fall of the face of the earth unless it is part of the B12. I mean we've heard that is 100's of posts here, so it must be true! Reminds me of the GAG hiring... it was an incredible boon of good fortune for OSU. A sure fire positive. Anyone mentioning player and fan complaints and locker room strife was ridiculed. They were wrong then, and will be here if OSU goes it as the P2 or a MWC combo. OSU will be fine as it appears that some have OSU's overall level of athletic department recruiting and prestige on a far different level than is reality. Could the B12 change their mind? Sure, when their media partners allow or demand it. The B12 has repeatedly said it was done. There would be no reason for them to respond to fan based pod casts. (Kinda like OSU coaches would not play AC because fans wanted to see him! ) I can only speak for myself but when I've mentioned (usually social media posts, I think I've only even talked about one specific podcast) social media posts or podcasts, I've said they are not official journalistic sites just to define the site in my post. They say they have sources and it some cases they do cite them (such as where they got financial information). I think it's pretty obvious why one would make the distinction between these podcasts/social media platforms and those from a newspaper or journalistic web site. I disagree that most are trying to throw out something and have it stick. They (particularly the podcasts) seem to focus on the subject and their opinion and try to use sources to back up their position. It's pretty close to what the old newspaper columnists or commenters on TV or radio did except they were (usually) held to higher journalistic standards. You're the one saying those podcasts are "complete unsubstantiated," something you have no way of knowing for sure but you want to be true because you don't want OSU to go to the Big 12. I watched a podcast a few days ago that covered the OSU and WSU to the Big 12 stuff but concluded that they most likely will wind up with the MWC teams in some form (it was a podcast that covers the MWC). So is that podcast completely unsubstantiated nonsense or is it right but just doesn't have the final official information? |
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Post by atownbeaver on Oct 3, 2023 11:32:47 GMT -8
The one thing the pro-Big12 crowd has going for it is the fact that there haven't been any denials by the Big12 mouthpieces in Dennis Dodd or Brett McMurphy. I seem to recall one of them pouring water on the idea several weeks ago. Either the story isn't important enough for them to refute, or they are tired of refuting it, or it's true. The best thing to do is sit back and wait and see what happens. Mid-November isn't that far away. And... quit pretending a B12 affiliation is the "best thing". We have NO IDEA... how any of this would work or effect our AD for some years down the road. But, to state it is a sure thing OSU will fade off into oblivion if it is not the B12 is nonsense. I'm pretty sure with the history of posts on this board, even those thinking the B12 is a sure fire positive will soon find plenty to complain about. I mean the last to be invited is sure to be conspired against! I don't think we'd fade into oblivion without the B12... but I think the one thing we do know is there is no clear path to the same amount of money the B12 could pay if we go it alone, in the near term (next 10 years). We'd be taking OSU and WSU and selecting in a group of schools that currently are worth $4 million a year in media money. And while there are some good dang schools there for football, Fresno St. Boise St. Utah St, San Diego St etc... none of them command major media payouts. The new Pac-12 simply would not get anything close to what a share of the B12 would be, period. If everything goes a good as humanly possible for OSU: we get full control of the Pac-2. We get the CFP payouts, we split that with ONLY WSU. new Pac-2 members join and do not get those cuts... we still burn through that "money in the bank" in about 5 or 6 years at best with the deficit in media payout. I am skeptical if we get a B12 offer, it is a full share... but even a half share is more than what a Pac-12 build from MWC would pay us from CBS... |
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Post by grayman on Oct 3, 2023 11:36:18 GMT -8
The one thing the pro-Big12 crowd has going for it is the fact that there haven't been any denials by the Big12 mouthpieces in Dennis Dodd or Brett McMurphy. I seem to recall one of them pouring water on the idea several weeks ago. Either the story isn't important enough for them to refute, or they are tired of refuting it, or it's true. The best thing to do is sit back and wait and see what happens. Mid-November isn't that far away. I'm pretty sure with the history of posts on this board, even those thinking the B12 is a sure fire positive will soon find plenty to complain about. I mean the last to be invited is sure to be conspired against! Agreed. But why do you have such a big problem with the possibility that OSU goes to the Big 12? |
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Post by grayman on Oct 3, 2023 11:40:00 GMT -8
And... quit pretending a B12 affiliation is the "best thing". We have NO IDEA... how any of this would work or effect our AD for some years down the road. But, to state it is a sure thing OSU will fade off into oblivion if it is not the B12 is nonsense. I'm pretty sure with the history of posts on this board, even those thinking the B12 is a sure fire positive will soon find plenty to complain about. I mean the last to be invited is sure to be conspired against! I don't think we'd fade into oblivion without the B12... but I think the one thing we do know is there is no clear path to the same amount of money the B12 could pay if we go it alone, in the near term (next 10 years). We'd be taking OSU and WSU and selecting in a group of schools that currently are worth $4 million a year in media money. And while there are some good dang schools there for football, Fresno St. Boise St. Utah St, San Diego St etc... none of them command major media payouts. The new Pac-12 simply would not get anything close to what a share of the B12 would be, period. If everything goes a good as humanly possible for OSU: we get full control of the Pac-2. We get the CFP payouts, we split that with ONLY WSU. new Pac-2 members join and do not get those cuts... we still burn through that "money in the bank" in about 5 or 6 years at best with the deficit in media payout. I am skeptical if we get a B12 offer, it is a full share... but even a half share is more than what a Pac-12 build from MWC would pay us from CBS...Yeah...that's a sticking point, IMO. But I just don't see them being able to offer something lower when OSU and WSU (in this scenario) would have some big bargaining chips. I would think it would have to be more than what the other Pac-12 teams are getting. Or at least the same but with a lump sum payout tacked on...something to that effect. |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Oct 3, 2023 11:59:27 GMT -8
And... quit pretending a B12 affiliation is the "best thing". We have NO IDEA... how any of this would work or effect our AD for some years down the road. But, to state it is a sure thing OSU will fade off into oblivion if it is not the B12 is nonsense. I'm pretty sure with the history of posts on this board, even those thinking the B12 is a sure fire positive will soon find plenty to complain about. I mean the last to be invited is sure to be conspired against! I don't think we'd fade into oblivion without the B12... but I think the one thing we do know is there is no clear path to the same amount of money the B12 could pay if we go it alone, in the near term (next 10 years). We'd be taking OSU and WSU and selecting in a group of schools that currently are worth $4 million a year in media money. And while there are some good dang schools there for football, Fresno St. Boise St. Utah St, San Diego St etc... none of them command major media payouts. The new Pac-12 simply would not get anything close to what a share of the B12 would be, period. If everything goes a good as humanly possible for OSU: we get full control of the Pac-2. We get the CFP payouts, we split that with ONLY WSU. new Pac-2 members join and do not get those cuts... we still burn through that "money in the bank" in about 5 or 6 years at best with the deficit in media payout. I am skeptical if we get a B12 offer, it is a full share... but even a half share is more than what a Pac-12 build from MWC would pay us from CBS... Your last sentence assumes we join the MWC and under their existing contract. I'm pretty sure that's off the table - We could have done that any time in the last month without hiring consultants and filing lawsuits and approaching the state legislature AND wasting time. There's no telling what plan OSU and WSU have tucked away in their back pockets, but I suspect it's more lucrative than just joining the MWC. |
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