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Post by jefframp on Sept 29, 2023 5:23:54 GMT -8
If you bring in all the MWC how do you remain a P5 Conference? Hence my question regarding cherry picking the best teams. What is the criteria? P5 has zero to do with who's in your conference. The P5 committee was created for those conferences to have special privileges. That committee is headed by WSU's prez and takes a unanimous vote to remove a member. If the Pac exists, it's a P5 conference. I think!? What would it take to oust the WSU president as the committee's head? Treachery abounds!
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Post by ag87 on Sept 29, 2023 5:44:40 GMT -8
My question has probably been answered, but it’s hard to keep up. What teams could the Pac2 absorb from the MWC and retain Power5 status? We’d ruin the MWC, and screw over several schools there. But it seems like there could be money there to right some wrongs, at least temporarily. We definitely do not want to "just join the MWC and be done with it". Here's the Sagarin ratings of the PAC-2, the soon to be Big-12, and the MWC. The first number is the team's ranking relative to all teams. The "A = XX.XX" is some kind of power rating. sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htmPAC-2 24 Oregon State A = 81.14 26 Washington State A = 79.38 BIG 12 14 Kansas State A = 85.10 20 TCU A = 82.48 27 Central Florida(UCF) A = 79.25 35 Texas Tech A = 77.47 39 Kansas A = 75.97 40 Cincinnati A = 75.50 41 West Virginia A = 75.29 43 Iowa State A = 75.00 51 BYU A = 73.64 55 Oklahoma State A = 73.03 64 Baylor A = 71.17 69 Houston A = 70.06 18 Utah A = 83.07 68 Arizona A = 70.13 72 Colorado A = 69.80 91 Arizona State A = 64.69 MOUNTAIN WEST 44 Air Force A = 74.43 45 Boise State A = 74.38 52 Fresno State A = 73.62 74 Wyoming A = 69.20 87 San Diego State A = 66.54 93 San Jose State A = 64.59 94 UNLV A = 64.46 100 Utah State A = 63.48 106 Colorado State A = 62.47 135 Nevada A = 55.91 136 Hawai'i A = 55.90 153 New Mexico A = 53.31 In Sagarin's rankings, he is still using historical data. He drops that at some point, maybe after this weekend. Anyway, that skews what you see. You will see OSU, WSU, Air Force, Fresno and maybe some others go up. Much of the B12 along with Boise will plummet. But the problem remains that there are three or four teams in the MWC that would have a losing record in the BigSky.
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Post by sparty on Sept 29, 2023 5:45:50 GMT -8
If OSU and WSU try to rebuild, they will be under a ton of scrutiny. We are already perceived as the wallflowers at the dance. Adding more fat, ugly chicks isn’t going to help much. This is why, if we go this route, it is absolutely necessary to cherry pick. (Sorry, for the sexist analogy, but it seems spot on.) So who decides who is the ugly chick and what is the definition of fat? We were not thin enough for the Big12....just saying.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Sept 29, 2023 7:40:39 GMT -8
If you bring in all the MWC how do you remain a P5 Conference? Hence my question regarding cherry picking the best teams. What is the criteria? The Big 10, Big 12 and ACC all have “weak” teams in them. It would not be anything new.
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Post by irimi on Sept 29, 2023 7:42:38 GMT -8
If OSU and WSU try to rebuild, they will be under a ton of scrutiny. We are already perceived as the wallflowers at the dance. Adding more fat, ugly chicks isn’t going to help much. This is why, if we go this route, it is absolutely necessary to cherry pick. (Sorry, for the sexist analogy, but it seems spot on.) So who decides who is the ugly chick and what is the definition of fat? We were not thin enough for the Big12....just saying. The same people that are going to judge whether we are a Power 5 Conference or not, if we try to rebuild. Thus, we have to be as selective as possible. We need to make sure that the teams we invite in (if we go for a rebuild) are interested in being contenders in a Power 5 conference and are willing to build their programs in such manner.
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Post by irimi on Sept 29, 2023 7:43:31 GMT -8
If you bring in all the MWC how do you remain a P5 Conference? Hence my question regarding cherry picking the best teams. What is the criteria? The Big 10, Big 12 and ACC all have “weak” teams in them. It would not be anything new. Ah, but they are already on the inside, so to speak. Rebuilding a conference would be scrutinized.
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Post by atownbeaver on Sept 29, 2023 7:51:02 GMT -8
So Wilky's numbers add up to about $450 million...split between OSU and WSU that's $225 million and then it will no doubt take an investment to add MWC teams and create the new Pac, get it up and running and then keep it going. If they go that route, that new conference most likely will not get a great TV/streaming deal. And it's pretty doubtful IMO that such a conference would retain power status for long. If the Big 12 does come calling and offers $32 million (that's basically what the other teams get), that's $320 million over 10 years (possibly more depending on how the TV contracts go, not sure when this one expires) in an established power conference. But if ESPN is that desperate to keep the new Pac from happening, my guess is that OSU and WSU could and most likely would command even more money. And that is why a Big-12 invite is what we need and it would be worth giving up a potential $160M payout share with WSU to get a 10 year GOR at $32M/year. More stability in the long run, more money in the long run, and the Big-12 is a conference we'd be competitive in MWC currently gets $4 million a team per year. OSU and WSU + MWC teams would only get, if they are lucky, a $10-$12M a year offer. A huge win for MWC, a huge loss for OSU/WSU. You cannot bet that in the next 5-6 years... the time in which that CFP payout money windfall would of been spent... this new PAC-12 has elevated it's profile to enough to command more.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Sept 29, 2023 7:57:31 GMT -8
P5 has zero to do with who's in your conference. The P5 committee was created for those conferences to have special privileges. That committee is headed by WSU's prez and takes a unanimous vote to remove a member. If the Pac exists, it's a P5 conference. I think!? What would it take to oust the WSU president as the committee's head? Treachery abounds! I can’t tell if you’re being serious or not. Having WSU’s prez as Pac 12 committee chairman is what helps OSU & WSU retain P5 status. If it were any of the other 10, they likely would vote to oust the PAC’s P5 status because it’s in their best interest to have the PAC dissolved so they can share in the proceeds from the dissolution. If the Pac rebuilds the chairmanship likely will continue to rotate annually as it traditionally has, but the new Chairs would be invested in the PAC remaining a P5 conference. The conference should be able to remain a P5 conference for at least a couple years anyways.
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Post by speakthetruth on Sept 29, 2023 8:09:22 GMT -8
Math seems kind of easy. Big12 say 30 million a year for 10 years. $300. OR if pac route maybe $160 million. Plus maybe $10 million a year for 10 years. $260.
If invited $300 is alot better than maybe $260.
Plus under the pac option you still need to find teams in the nonrevenue sports.
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Post by 93beav on Sept 29, 2023 8:20:54 GMT -8
Math seems kind of easy. Big12 say 30 million a year for 10 years. $300. OR if pac route maybe $160 million. Plus maybe $10 million a year for 10 years. $260. If invited $300 is alot better than maybe $260. Plus under the pac option you still need to find teams in the nonrevenue sports. I think that "maybe $160 million" doesn't include an active media rights deal on top of it... if I'm reading the previous posts correctly.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Sept 29, 2023 8:30:51 GMT -8
So Wilky's numbers add up to about $450 million...split between OSU and WSU that's $225 million and then it will no doubt take an investment to add MWC teams and create the new Pac, get it up and running and then keep it going. If they go that route, that new conference most likely will not get a great TV/streaming deal. And it's pretty doubtful IMO that such a conference would retain power status for long. If the Big 12 does come calling and offers $32 million (that's basically what the other teams get), that's $320 million over 10 years (possibly more depending on how the TV contracts go, not sure when this one expires) in an established power conference. But if ESPN is that desperate to keep the new Pac from happening, my guess is that OSU and WSU could and most likely would command even more money. And that is why a Big-12 invite is what we need and it would be worth giving up a potential $160M payout share with WSU to get a 10 year GOR at $32M/year. More stability in the long run, more money in the long run, and the Big-12 is a conference we'd be competitive in MWC currently gets $4 million a team per year. OSU and WSU + MWC teams would only get, if they are lucky, a $10-$12M a year offer. A huge win for MWC, a huge loss for OSU/WSU. You cannot bet that in the next 5-6 years... the time in which that CFP payout money windfall would of been spent... this new PAC-12 has elevated it's profile to enough to command more. A $160 million share over 10 years is 16 million a year, and actually probably more because that’s actually front loaded over the next 2 years. Add to that all the PAC 12 NCAA basketball monies coming in the next 5 years we’d give up going to the Big 12, and that’s quite a chunk of change. There are also other league assets that supposedly bring in money for schools - thought I’ve seen a couple references that only about 2/3rds (or less) of the money the Pac 12 distributes to its’ teams is from the actual current media contract. There’s no real knowing what a possible media deal would be worth just yet, but I’d bet OSU/WSU/Mr. Luck have been in contact with potential suitors and will have a general idea of what the amount could be and will be accounting for that. Also, when people are fabricating the amount of money from a potential Apple deal, I’m pretty sure most are thinking the baseline $$ and ignoring potential subscription splits over and above the break even point Apple had given the conference in their original offer. Assuming Apple does the same kind of offer, if it’s a lower offer, that break even subscription number could potentially be lower as well. All that adds up, if it gets anywhere near close to the 32 million a year people are hoping to get from the Big 12, travel expenses and wear and tear on the student athletes does come into play, and travel expense increases are rumored to be several million bucks a year on their own. I would assume that if OSU & WSU were to pass on a Big 12 offer, they would have taken all that into consideration.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Sept 29, 2023 8:35:31 GMT -8
Math seems kind of easy. Big12 say 30 million a year for 10 years. $300. OR if pac route maybe $160 million. Plus maybe $10 million a year for 10 years. $260. If invited $300 is alot better than maybe $260. Plus under the pac option you still need to find teams in the nonrevenue sports. The 40 million difference is not a lot “better” if it truly costs several million more to ship your athletes back east several times a year as some have said. Add to that wear and tear on the student athletes, is it worth it?
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Post by speakthetruth on Sept 29, 2023 9:02:51 GMT -8
I simply don't want to settle playing wyoming,san jose, newmexico, etc..If the pac/mwc option is so great why was Barnes and the president at the capitol the other day imploring the legislature for money?
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Post by rgeorge on Sept 29, 2023 9:13:23 GMT -8
P5 has zero to do with who's in your conference. The P5 committee was created for those conferences to have special privileges. That committee is headed by WSU's prez and takes a unanimous vote to remove a member. If the Pac exists, it's a P5 conference. I think!? What would it take to oust the WSU president as the committee's head? Treachery abounds! I believe the Prez rotates but he's still on the board with a vote?!
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Sept 29, 2023 9:15:09 GMT -8
I simply don't want to settle playing wyoming,san jose, newmexico, etc..If the pac/mwc option is so great why was Barnes and the president at the capitol the other day imploring the legislature for money? It's not a "great" option. It might be our only viable one. Unless you seriously think the Big Ten or Big 12 are going to extend us an invitation. Not seeing that scenario. He's asking for money from the state because the actions of one state entity (Oregon) will have a significant, negative impact on another state entity (us). Hence we are entitled to seek relief. Whether we will get it remains to be seen.
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