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Post by bvrbooster on Sept 28, 2023 18:40:45 GMT -8
Meant to also mention: Some of all that money could be used as a bargaining chip to have us and Wazzu dissolve the PAC 12 conference somewhere around August 8 next year and accept an invitation to join the Big 12 on August 9. But I'd sure want the 2 schools to keep at least half that money.
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Post by rgeorge on Sept 28, 2023 18:53:28 GMT -8
The number is $318.8 million for football. That is the Pac-12's remaining two-year payout under the four-team CFP, roughly $158.8 million, and the remaining two-year payout under the Rose Bowl contract, roughly $160 million. Please note that there should be around another $90 million March Madness payout over six years. Also, there should also be between $40-$50 million in currently un- or under-utilized capitalization left in the Pac-12. You mean CFP? No, no conference champion gets an automatic slot into the CFP after this season. The current rule is that the six highest-ranked Conference Champions gets an automatic slot into the CFP and the four highest-ranked Conference Champions get byes. It is expected that the six automatic bids into the CFP will get reduced down to five, but that has not happened yet. If Oregon State and Wazzu get invited to a Power Five conference, expect that to happen, though. The Power Five was created to allow those conferences to pay additional money to athletes to cover things other than money to attend school and to stay on campus (e.g., money for food, books, transportation, etc.). Prior to the creation of Power Five, paying for those things could result in sanctions. The NILs have basically wiped that out. The second thing that the Power Five was created for was to fill out the New Years Six Bowls. With the change to the 12-team playoff, that is wiped out, as well. Once the money dries up after the 2025-2026 season, the Power Five will basically be meaningless. I could see the Power Four keeping the Pac-12 around as the fifth Power Five conference to break ties moving forward. But a fifth Power Five conference would otherwise be unnecessary to keep around for football. You add all that up, Wilky, and it's somewhere around $600 million, give or take the occasional million. If I understand things correctly, after UCLA and USC split, there was still a $30 million per year per team media rights contract on the table, right? Simple arithmetic; divide $600 million by 10, and you get $60 million per school. most payable over the next 2 years. So the Asshole Eight walked away from $50 to $60 million a year over the next 2 years to take partial or zero shares over that time in conferences far, far away? And, had Stanford and Cal stayed, that $600 million would have been divided by 4. So they walked away from that to get zero to play somewhere over the rainbow? Makes zero sense. I only hope Wazzu and OSU fight to keep that money, and don't give an inch. Yeah, no idea how the court stuff will turn out. But if there is anything close to $360M+ over two years it makes zero sense to join the B12 for $32M. That much cash provides two years security, but more importantly assures the MWC would dissolve and happily take a small chunk to be in a P5 conference with lots of opportunities for growth. |
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Post by spudbeaver on Sept 28, 2023 19:02:05 GMT -8
My question has probably been answered, but it’s hard to keep up.
What teams could the Pac2 absorb from the MWC and retain Power5 status? We’d ruin the MWC, and screw over several schools there. But it seems like there could be money there to right some wrongs, at least temporarily.
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Post by rgeorge on Sept 28, 2023 19:14:09 GMT -8
My question has probably been answered, but it’s hard to keep up. What teams could the Pac2 absorb from the MWC and retain Power5 status? We’d ruin the MWC, and screw over several schools there. But it seems like there could be money there to right some wrongs, at least temporarily. I'd say you have them dissolve and take all 12. Otherwise the vote to dissolve will not pass. In doing so, you assure a Pac14 power conference and probably attract at media deal at least what exist now. With that you can hope it is Apple + another member and maybe have a opt out before the other big contracts are finished. The extra money mentioned allows OSU and WSU to sit pretty, save up some dollars while offering some assistance. And, although not as much, the Pac14 will be drawing in extra money thru '29-30 or '30-31 from NCAA units. While keeping all the MWC for at least 2 years you can then take a look at how the media market is trending. The (14) teams also allows for very easy travel, and scheduling. In football a North/South configuration... 6 games vs your division and 3 cross overs that can change each season if on a 2 year trial. Or every 2 for home & home if longer. Other sports have enough conference opponents with decent resumes that allows plenty of opportunities to up the NC slate. A short term Pac14 conference and media deal give OSU great flexibility and plenty of money IF the OSU/WSU control does exist. |
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Post by grayman on Sept 28, 2023 19:41:13 GMT -8
Here's another podcast talking about the possibility of going to the Big 12, this one is from WSU fans. link
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Post by spudbeaver on Sept 28, 2023 19:56:03 GMT -8
My question has probably been answered, but it’s hard to keep up. What teams could the Pac2 absorb from the MWC and retain Power5 status? We’d ruin the MWC, and screw over several schools there. But it seems like there could be money there to right some wrongs, at least temporarily. I'd say you have them dissolve and take all 12. Otherwise the vote to dissolve will not pass. In doing so, you assure a Pac14 power conference and probably attract at media deal at least what exist now. With that you can hope it is Apple + another member and maybe have a opt out before the other big contracts are finished. The extra money mentioned allows OSU and WSU to sit pretty, save up some dollars while offering some assistance. And, although not as much, the Pac14 will be drawing in extra money thru '29-30 or '30-31 from NCAA units. While keeping all the MWC for at least 2 years you can then take a look at how the media market is trending. The (14) teams also allows for very easy travel, and scheduling. In football a North/South configuration... 6 games vs your division and 3 cross overs that can change each season if on a 2 year trial. Or every 2 for home & home if longer. Other sports have enough conference opponents with decent resumes that allows plenty of opportunities to up the NC slate. A short term Pac14 conference and media deal give OSU great flexibility and plenty of money IF the OSU/WSU control does exist. How can they stay a Power 5 with the weakest MWC teams joining? |
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Post by Dave86 on Sept 28, 2023 20:06:19 GMT -8
My question has probably been answered, but it’s hard to keep up. What teams could the Pac2 absorb from the MWC and retain Power5 status? We’d ruin the MWC, and screw over several schools there. But it seems like there could be money there to right some wrongs, at least temporarily. We definitely do not want to "just join the MWC and be done with it". Here's the Sagarin ratings of the PAC-2, the soon to be Big-12, and the MWC. The first number is the team's ranking relative to all teams. The "A = XX.XX" is some kind of power rating. sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htmPAC-2 24 Oregon State A = 81.14 26 Washington State A = 79.38 BIG 12 14 Kansas State A = 85.10 20 TCU A = 82.48 27 Central Florida(UCF) A = 79.25 35 Texas Tech A = 77.47 39 Kansas A = 75.97 40 Cincinnati A = 75.50 41 West Virginia A = 75.29 43 Iowa State A = 75.00 51 BYU A = 73.64 55 Oklahoma State A = 73.03 64 Baylor A = 71.17 69 Houston A = 70.06 18 Utah A = 83.07 68 Arizona A = 70.13 72 Colorado A = 69.80 91 Arizona State A = 64.69 MOUNTAIN WEST 44 Air Force A = 74.43 45 Boise State A = 74.38 52 Fresno State A = 73.62 74 Wyoming A = 69.20 87 San Diego State A = 66.54 93 San Jose State A = 64.59 94 UNLV A = 64.46 100 Utah State A = 63.48 106 Colorado State A = 62.47 135 Nevada A = 55.91 136 Hawai'i A = 55.90 153 New Mexico A = 53.31 |
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Post by grayman on Sept 28, 2023 20:19:41 GMT -8
So Wilky's numbers add up to about $450 million...split between OSU and WSU that's $225 million and then it will no doubt take an investment to add MWC teams and create the new Pac, get it up and running and then keep it going.
If they go that route, that new conference most likely will not get a great TV/streaming deal. And it's pretty doubtful IMO that such a conference would retain power status for long.
If the Big 12 does come calling and offers $32 million (that's basically what the other teams get), that's $320 million over 10 years (possibly more depending on how the TV contracts go, not sure when this one expires) in an established power conference. But if ESPN is that desperate to keep the new Pac from happening, my guess is that OSU and WSU could and most likely would command even more money.
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Post by irimi on Sept 28, 2023 20:45:27 GMT -8
My question has probably been answered, but it’s hard to keep up. What teams could the Pac2 absorb from the MWC and retain Power5 status? We’d ruin the MWC, and screw over several schools there. But it seems like there could be money there to right some wrongs, at least temporarily. We definitely do not want to "just join the MWC and be done with it". Here's the Sagarin ratings of the PAC-2, the soon to be Big-12, and the MWC. The first number is the team's ranking relative to all teams. The "A = XX.XX" is some kind of power rating. sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htmPAC-2 24 Oregon State A = 81.14 26 Washington State A = 79.38 BIG 12 14 Kansas State A = 85.10 20 TCU A = 82.48 27 Central Florida(UCF) A = 79.25 35 Texas Tech A = 77.47 39 Kansas A = 75.97 40 Cincinnati A = 75.50 41 West Virginia A = 75.29 43 Iowa State A = 75.00 51 BYU A = 73.64 55 Oklahoma State A = 73.03 64 Baylor A = 71.17 69 Houston A = 70.06 18 Utah A = 83.07 68 Arizona A = 70.13 72 Colorado A = 69.80 91 Arizona State A = 64.69 MOUNTAIN WEST 44 Air Force A = 74.43 45 Boise State A = 74.38 52 Fresno State A = 73.62 74 Wyoming A = 69.20 87 San Diego State A = 66.54 93 San Jose State A = 64.59 94 UNLV A = 64.46 100 Utah State A = 63.48 106 Colorado State A = 62.47 135 Nevada A = 55.91 136 Hawai'i A = 55.90 153 New Mexico A = 53.31 So the real question is whether some of those MW teams have the potential in a couple of years of becoming stronger and better in a Pac 2.X conference flush with money. |
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Post by Dave86 on Sept 28, 2023 20:50:13 GMT -8
I think the maximum exit penalty for MWC team is $34M, assuming that less than one year of notice for leaving is given. So, if the PAC-2 were to poach 6 teams and build a conference in time for the 2024 football season, then 6 x $34M = $204M would be needed to pay all the exit fees.
Of course, one might argue that $204M in damages were not done to the remaining 6 MWC schools (& TV networks...), so perhaps a reduced exit rate might be negotiated or litigated.
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Post by bvrbooster on Sept 28, 2023 20:52:03 GMT -8
Dissolving the Mountain West and bringing them all into the PAC, if that is what's to happen, could work out nicely for everybody if certain things occur:
(1) They cut a deal with Apple for streaming rights. Once again, none of the markets individually are not large, but they cover a wide swath of territory. If a network gets a conference for football, that's 4 months of content. If Apple gets a subscriber for 10 bucks a month, they get them for 12 or more months.
If Apple pays $10 million per team, that's $160 million a year. They'd have to get 1,333,000 new subscribers to make that break even, but Apple has very, very deep pockets. If they want to get into college sports, this is their best opportunity for an entree. Plus, PAC 12 Network can produce the content.
(2) OSU and Wazzu agree to share some of the PAC 12 windfall with the MWC schools, say $4 million per school for 3 years.
(3) The current MWC schools will then each have an extra $9 million a year for the next 3 years. They each agree to take at least half that money and use it to build up sports (other than football and men's basketball) at which they're already good at the MWC level to become really, really good at the national level. (This will also require their alums stepping up in those sports at the NIL level.)
(4) The idea would be to try to build a conference that is capable of winning national championships - just probably not in football or men's hoops. Ultimately, the goal would be to build back toward what the PAC 12 has been, not just a slightly larger same old Mountain West.
That's what I'd try to do vis a vis the MWC.
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Post by spudbeaver on Sept 28, 2023 20:55:47 GMT -8
If you bring in all the MWC how do you remain a P5 Conference? Hence my question regarding cherry picking the best teams. What is the criteria?
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Post by rgeorge on Sept 28, 2023 20:56:36 GMT -8
There is no MWC team leaving, paying an exit fee. Not sure why folks keep going down that road.
The only possibility for the MWC to even consider is to dissolve. No conference, no exit fee.
And, the absence of their conference means an absence of a media deal, but available product. Hence, I'm guessing a media deal with someone.
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Post by rgeorge on Sept 28, 2023 21:00:16 GMT -8
If you bring in all the MWC how do you remain a P5 Conference? Hence my question regarding cherry picking the best teams. What is the criteria? P5 has zero to do with who's in your conference. The P5 committee was created for those conferences to have special privileges. That committee is headed by WSU's prez and takes a unanimous vote to remove a member. If the Pac exists, it's a P5 conference. I think!? |
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Post by irimi on Sept 29, 2023 4:39:55 GMT -8
If OSU and WSU try to rebuild, they will be under a ton of scrutiny. We are already perceived as the wallflowers at the dance. Adding more fat, ugly chicks isn’t going to help much. This is why, if we go this route, it is absolutely necessary to cherry pick. (Sorry, for the sexist analogy, but it seems spot on.)
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