Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Aug 6, 2023 19:29:49 GMT -8
1 & 2. If the conference kills it in the CFP or the NCAA basketball tournament or generates a bunch of revenue in other sports, that number could go up. Or we could collectively do worse, and we have less money coming in over the five years after conference dissolves.
3. We need to decide how that money is distributed with California and Stanford (if they stay) and Wazzu. We could decide that a new conference member gets a piece of that, as well. (You never know.) But as long as the Pac-12 gets to six teams and plays each other, Oregon State earns a 1/6, 1/5, or 1/4 of the $420 million.
4 & 5. The distribution period begins after the eight teams leave and is set to last at least five years. There should be new revenue generated next year, which would last into year six. That money is not necessarily a set money. I would guess that it is frontloaded to a certain extent. But it will definitively not be fully paid out until at least 2029, and this year's money is not going to be 100% paid out until at least 2030, which is nice, because the next round of contract negotiations are set to begin in about 2030. So, basically, Oregon State has a $105 million or thereabouts, less whatever it takes to get two other teams in and it will take at least six years to get all of that money in.
6. After 2030, almost all, if not all, of the Pac-12 residual money will be gone and, money earned after that time, will be what the Pac-4+ will have earned from 2024-2030. That is when it really hits the fan. We either kill it from here until 2030, or Oregon State needs to find a soft landing spot, once 2030 rolls around.
1. If the conference dissolves, it probably comes down to either (1) what the Pac-12's Charter says or (2) what the Articles of Dissolution say. The Pac-12's Charter probably has some boilerplate about what happens if the conference dissolves. That should control. In Arizona, typically, you would file a lawsuit to dissolve an entity to provide creditors the chance to claim that money. That might happen, and then a judge decides how the money is divided. I have no idea how things are going to be divided, because I do not know what boilerplate that they signed on to. There is a lawyer, who is set to make a ton of money on that whole thing, should the Pac-12 really dissolve.
2. If there is a merger, there is a merger, and the terms of the merger determine how the money is divided. And that might trip up something in the Charter, but I don't know. If there is an Alliance, then the Pac-12 teams in the Alliance keep the money or allocate, pursuant to the terms of the Pac-12's Charter. Once again, there is a lawyer, who is going to make a ton of money on that eventuality, but it probably won't be me.
In football, they'd have 7 ooc games, which would afford a bridge to Stanford if they wanted to go the independent route. Distasteful though it might be, they could all schedule some of those against teams from the Despicable Eight to generate fan and television interest.
It buys time - something which we could really use.