So I have some questions

I'm in the "it's probably not Kliavkoff 's fault camp". It wasn't GK that nixed expansion a year or two back, it was a President. It's not Kliavkoff who turned down ESPN's offer for tier one games last year, selling the remaining games likely would have put the total
over the top, it was the Presidents. It's not Kliavkoff who set the last deal's sunset at 12 years, it was people long befoe him that approved it. It's not Kliavkoff who purportedly wants the conference not to expand, it's a couple Presidents. Kliavkoff doesn't run Colorado, he doesn't run any team.

Kliavkoff will likely be the fall guy, but he's been battled every step of the way buy the actual decision makers.

I bet he'd love to have had immediate approval on several different expansion options he's probably had.

If UO and UW go Big Ten they will rarely see play-offs, giving Big 10 2 teams every year, means they will have to beat out Michigan and Buckeyes, and probably Penn St, just don't really see that happening more than once a decade.  Rescue the Pac 9 and they are in the hunt virtaully every year.

Appreciate your thoughts.   My impression is you know a lot more about the inner workings, and goals, of the Big 12 than most of us.  

My thought is joining the Big 12 at this point would likely be a coup for Oregon State.   Staying in a held together Pac 12, if it happens, would mean begging for crumbs with no negotiating position.    The Bay Area schools and UW have always looked down on us.  Oregon and UW would be calling the shots.   Big 12 sounds like it would be more about share and share alike.   Traveling to places like WVA and Texas would be a hardship but I understand those places are nicer in November than Michigan or Ohio.

I mean maybe.....but do you really think the goal is to stay in a bush league over creating a conference that can compete with the SEC?

The Pac 9 is a mess......who's coming to the rescue? Maybe uncle Phil will just fund it all

Then put me into that camp. The problem is not CU leaving or the complete 4 corner shift or UO or UW leaving or any of that. It's the lack of a media deal that allows everyone to compare apples to apples. We could expand to 100 teams or we could shift down to 4 or do whatever, but we don't have any parameters to base the impacts upon.

Does CU leaving hurt? Sure it does, we lose the Denver market and the two years that Coach Sanders has the media spotlight shining bright. Is it a big deal? Not really in the overall scheme. No media deal and it won't matter because we would have folded anyhow. Get a media deal that's way above par and you can start talking about poaching elsewhere. Find a media deal that "just gets you through" and it's unlikely CU would've made or broke that.

Really? Because they have "Nebraska" in the moniker.

I can't call it all hogwash as no one knows anything about the inner workings and what is going... with TV packages or what conference officials are thinking and their goals. That includes every poster on this board. It's opinion and complete conjecture and much of it flies in the face of what many schools have said. Colorado was NEVER all in. Many of their admin were not all in coming to the Pac10 at all. The were a B12 team through and through. Their AD, Rick George, was very noncommittal in many of his comments over the last few months. When he stormed out of Pac12 media days early, right after GK's media package comment/blunder, he left and took no questions. It was pretty clear that was the straw that affirmed Colorado's decision had been made.

But, I can make an educated guesses too. OSU isn't going to suddenly revamp their athletic offerings. I can also guess the B12 isn't as interested in a P5 team with a negligible TV presence/market value. The B12 has also mentioned it will add one more team for '24 and as someone said I think it was UConn?? The powers that be aren't going to allow OSU and Oregon to be in separate conferences and have the rivalry be a NC affair. Those same government powers may not let any movement take place unless there is a large fiscal advantage. 

My thoughts... there will be a Pac12 this year and in '24. It will be a lesser conference with replacement programs weaker in overall athletic programs. The 2024 and beyond TV/media deal will include multiple packages with several networks depending on the tiered games, one will have priority. The key decision will be... should it be long term, 10-12 years with likely less $$/school than expected to provide long term stability. Maybe even a type of "escalator clause" for successes?! Or, shorter to renegotiate if the conference blossoms... a couple of CFP teams, a hoops title, etc. Whatever the deal the conference will have a base distribution and then "reward dollars" distribution splits for teams in the post season bringing the conference more attention and money. 

And, like the rest... have no real clue... nor "osu" or "pac12" in my moniker.

With USC, UCLA and Colorado gone we need SDSU and CSU just to maintain a presence in those regions. That doesn't get us to 12 teams though.

I'd think adding Fresneck would further solidify California TV eyeballs, adding SMU would be opening up new territory (which would help to appease whoever is buying media rights). Then make a push for Tulane or another school in that region (with UNLV as a fallback option) to get to 14 (which would further appease the media partners).

At which point a lot of the negotiating power has returned, so work out an escalator clause for more money for every school IF and when the Pac 14 can add 2 additional existing Power 5 or equivalent schools the TV partners agree on. There likely would be a couple big schools interested in making the jump within a couple years. Win/Win.

I've thought for a while now 12 or fewer teams will kill this conference, considering others are looking at 14 or more. Staying pat with 12, or shrinking to 10, makes the conference look weaker than it really is. This year should be a good year for the Pac 12, losing USC and UCLA (both of which have been down at times in the last decade) a year later shouldn't kill it. Right now the university presidents are letting it kill the conference.