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Post by joecool on Jul 3, 2023 16:44:54 GMT -8
I'm still surprised that Mikey Kane keeps coming up. There must be definitely something behind that. And McDowell sounds like he is gone.
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Post by beaverinsider211 on Jul 4, 2023 23:50:39 GMT -8
Wilson’s ceiling is probably more mid 2nd round. Probably an overpay in the 3rd round. Caraway’s ceiling is back of the 1st but a more realistic ceiling is comp to early second round. Wilson adds some much needed depth on the mound and Caraway from the looks of it comes and hits in the middle of the order from day 1. Will be interesting to see if we can round up some NIL money to get these guys on campus. If I had to bring out the checkbook for one player though it’s Caraway. That lineup is scary with him in it next year even with him being a freshman. Go Beavs!
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Post by obf on Jul 5, 2023 10:14:23 GMT -8
I wonder why Canham was so adamant about not having Forrester catch?!? It isn't like we didn't have a need at catcher! Plus, we always want to be showcasing our players for scouts as well. Also curious why he didn't get more of a shot at 3B. Oh well, sounds like Garret and McDowell are pretty much gone, good luck to them both and thanks for being beavs! I was really hoping that out of Forrester, McDowell, Kane and Kasper that at least 2, and maybe even 3 would be back for next year. If all four are gone as well as Carraway that puts a real damper om my hopes of next years offense  |
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Post by chinmusic on Jul 5, 2023 10:48:53 GMT -8
Well, they say the only two things in life that are unavoidable are death and taxes.
So, what difference does it make if he pays 33% of a signing bonus now or in two or three years from now?
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Post by rgeorge on Jul 5, 2023 11:13:16 GMT -8
Simply put... he'll have 2-3 years:
- of his money growing in good (hopefully) investments after taxes and fees are disbursed;
- he'll be playing for money, hence any injury doesn't hurt his future draft position or being drafted at all;
- in 2-3 years the entire draft pool is very different and no matter his success could be facing a deeper (or shallower) pool in his position group;
Even at the bottom of Rd 2 (2c) it is over $1 mil, thru to pick 101 (3c) it's still close to $670k. It is life changing money to start a young life. And, if you are not foolish enough to hire a big time agent (Families... parents can do quite well with some guidance for much less than an agency fee) it is a no brainer. You can go back to college for a degree any time.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 5, 2023 13:18:00 GMT -8
I wonder why Canham was so adamant about not having Forrester catch?!? It isn't like we didn't have a need at catcher! Plus, we always want to be showcasing our players for scouts as well. Also curious why he didn't get more of a shot at 3B. Oh well, sounds like Garret and McDowell are pretty much gone, good luck to them both and thanks for being beavs! I was really hoping that out of Forrester, McDowell, Kane and Kasper that at least 2, and maybe even 3 would be back for next year. If all four are gone as well as Carraway that puts a real damper om my hopes of next years offense Forrester seemed like the best defensive first baseman and probably was not the best defensive catcher. Plus catcher takes a toll. You have to be a great athlete to catch almost fulltime and still get up and hit well. |
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Post by chinmusic on Jul 5, 2023 13:19:32 GMT -8
Ha-ha, if you listen to some of the economic forecasts, you might be smart to circle back on Venezuelan oil futures, credit default swaps and derivatives. Not much guaranteed on investing those bonus dollars right now.
You can speculate on the draft pool being better or worse in 2 years but the GM's, and Scouting Directors are all in agreement - this is the best and deepest draft class in the last 10 years at least.
His latest projection is #37 to the Detroit Tigers with a slot value of $2,320,500.
We rode the Turley Roller Coaster, now we ride the Caraway Coaster.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 5, 2023 14:02:31 GMT -8
Ha-ha, if you listen to some of the economic forecasts, you might be smart to circle back on Venezuelan oil futures, credit default swaps and derivatives. Not much guaranteed on investing those bonus dollars right now. You can speculate on the draft pool being better or worse in 2 years but the GM's, and Scouting Directors are all in agreement - this is the best and deepest draft class in the last 10 years at least. His latest projection is #37 to the Detroit Tigers with a slot value of $2,320,500. We rode the Turley Roller Coaster, now we ride the Caraway Coaster. You can invest in Six-Month Treasuries or put money into some monster CDs right now. Otherwise, I agree your money is probably best used in derivatives, preferred stock, buying up debt, or foreign (and not European) oil futures. The rest of the market has me spooked right now. (In pretty much every market, if you are not making 6%+, you are doing something wrong.) |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Jul 5, 2023 15:34:44 GMT -8
I wonder why Canham was so adamant about not having Forrester catch?!? It isn't like we didn't have a need at catcher! Plus, we always want to be showcasing our players for scouts as well. Also curious why he didn't get more of a shot at 3B. Oh well, sounds like Garret and McDowell are pretty much gone, good luck to them both and thanks for being beavs! I was really hoping that out of Forrester, McDowell, Kane and Kasper that at least 2, and maybe even 3 would be back for next year. If all four are gone as well as Carraway that puts a real damper om my hopes of next years offense Because our best defense was Smith/Weber at catcher, Kane at 3B and Forrester at 1B. Move Forrester to either third or catcer and you've weakened us at two defensive positions. It's Mitch's job to win games at Oregon State. Not to juggle his lineup and showcase players for professional scouts. |
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Post by rgeorge on Jul 5, 2023 15:52:51 GMT -8
For the short term initially there are many ways to plop a chunk of $ and get 4.5%+ that's liquid and can readily be reinvested.
Without even trying hard a $1 mil investment can gross you over $4k/month in interest in a MM or some high yield savings being offered.
You don't need to start with more serious fee based investing. Start simple and safe.
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Post by 56chevy on Jul 5, 2023 20:21:03 GMT -8
Well, they say the only two things in life that are unavoidable are death and taxes. So, what difference does it make if he pays 33% of a signing bonus now or in two or three years from now? As a California resident the number is a lot higher than 33%. Could be close to 50%. The real question is...how much bigger could the check be in 3 years. If you look at the Madrigal/Grenier case, the check was worth waiting for. In both of those cases and I think in the case of Turley the players and families had a number and MLB teams knew it and thought they had better options available with those selections. I'm not seeing any talk of that in this case. Hope I'm wrong but I don't think we get him. |
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Post by chinmusic on Jul 5, 2023 21:36:41 GMT -8
More family's are seeking counsel and financial advice now days prior to the draft. Everything is calculated and a hard number is established. Increases in the the cost of education has escalated over the past 20 years and folks are working with a much larger numbers now when comparing the value of school vs a signing bonus.
We have heard the $1 mil number tossed around in conversation about Madrigal, Grenier and Turley. That is unknown, it may have more or less but none signed and Turley's number sent him to the back of the Bus on draft day.
One argument used in the college vs Pro discussion is, "they can always go back and get their degree". The fallacy with that argument is that they don't. The NCAA studied that subject - athletes leaving school for professional careers prior to graduation and the results were stunning. As I recall, it was less than 20%. Granted football and basketball would have been the bulk of that study and would have skewed the numbers in drawing the same 20% conclusion with baseball.
A college player drafted at 21 will spend maybe 5 or 6 years on average with a minor league career. At 26 or 27, he may be married, maybe with kids and probably with some form of good job offer. Returning to college after Pro ball isn't in the cards for him. He's moved on and getting on with a career.
If you looked at every OSU player that turned Pro before graduating, how many have returned to finish their education? I'd love to know.
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Post by rgeorge on Jul 5, 2023 22:50:57 GMT -8
There really isn't any "fallacy" in the going back to school statement. No one says a player has to. Nor, attend a 4-year or get a "degree". It's a life choice, just like signing is. They will have ample time and money to go back... CC/JC, 4 year, Voc, online, etc. Many careers they choose will require some specific training/ schooling. Not often thought of as returning to an educational setting. But, I'd wager most former players returned to an educational setting. Return to school doesn't mean one has to get a degree.
I'd also challenge any statistic that says HS signees don't go back to school. There simply is no way to connect and track each and every player the rest of their life. Not sure how the NCAA could possibly track kids never in college, then follow them after their playing career to see if they go into higher ed?! Hmmmm... maybe that's what their issue is in running college sports? They spend all their time tracking HS baseball players who signed to see if they went back to school(s) and got a degree?!
As for finishing a degree or graduating when a player signs out of college. Well, there is no way to ever tell. It's why a school's retention rate is misleading. Students leaving aren't "tracked" as where or if they continue their education. A player can go to any other school... in person, online, etc. Those who leave early often have plenty of schooling to get their foot in the door in many business settings. A player doesn't have to have a sheep skin to succeed after baseball. But there is simply no way to accurately track if they do unless it's at their original university. I guess one could pull up the personal history of every kid ever drafted out of college and then somehow see if they went back to school. Got a degree??
School is more expensive... if going FT. If doing R&B. But, slot money is bigger too. And, let's not forget, 6 figures+ is life changing for many families, let alone the signed player.
I'll also add, something rarely mentioned but a very real consideration... some kids aren't "built" for college. Some struggle academically, just not into more schooling. Signing for 6 figures+ is an easy choice versus more classes. Just as kids who can sign with their dream school and have higher education as one of their goals won't sign unless the # is truly amazing.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Jul 6, 2023 8:39:57 GMT -8
The short of it is, there is no guaranteed right way. Every case is different, every individual is different. In the end, you make what you think is the right choice for you and go with it.
For some, it's 4-year college, for some it's a Juco, for others it's signing right out of high school.
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Post by pabeaver on Jul 9, 2023 7:58:32 GMT -8
There really isn't any "fallacy" in the going back to school statement. No one says a player has to. Nor, attend a 4-year or get a "degree". It's a life choice, just like signing is. They will have ample time and money to go back... CC/JC, 4 year, Voc, online, etc. Many careers they choose will require some specific training/ schooling. Not often thought of as returning to an educational setting. But, I'd wager most former players returned to an educational setting. Return to school doesn't mean one has to get a degree. I'd also challenge any statistic that says HS signees don't go back to school. There simply is no way to connect and track each and every player the rest of their life. Not sure how the NCAA could possibly track kids never in college, then follow them after their playing career to see if they go into higher ed?! Hmmmm... maybe that's what their issue is in running college sports? They spend all their time tracking HS baseball players who signed to see if they went back to school(s) and got a degree?! As for finishing a degree or graduating when a player signs out of college. Well, there is no way to ever tell. It's why a school's retention rate is misleading. Students leaving aren't "tracked" as where or if they continue their education. A player can go to any other school... in person, online, etc. Those who leave early often have plenty of schooling to get their foot in the door in many business settings. A player doesn't have to have a sheep skin to succeed after baseball. But there is simply no way to accurately track if they do unless it's at their original university. I guess one could pull up the personal history of every kid ever drafted out of college and then somehow see if they went back to school. Got a degree?? School is more expensive... if going FT. If doing R&B. But, slot money is bigger too. And, let's not forget, 6 figures+ is life changing for many families, let alone the signed player. I'll also add, something rarely mentioned but a very real consideration... some kids aren't "built" for college. Some struggle academically, just not into more schooling. Signing for 6 figures+ is an easy choice versus more classes. Just as kids who can sign with their dream school and have higher education as one of their goals won't sign unless the # is truly amazing. …Or the NCAA could just send a survey asking whether they went back and got their degree, or ever planned to. It would not take a whole lot of effort to get a statistically significant sample size and some pretty reliable results. I guess you could “challenge any statistic that says HS signees don't go back to school” all you want. Knock yourself out, but it’s not like it would take a team of scientists, doing database forensics at hundreds of colleges and trade schools, for every player over the course of their entire lives, to get this data. |
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