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Post by beavaristotle on Mar 27, 2023 12:48:07 GMT -8
RPI 99.....we have a long road to the post season. We will need to win damn near all our remaining series. Might be room for a slip up, or two, but the post season seems like a pipe dream for this team, based on what we've seen so far. from what we have seen, I think you can stick a fork in this team. If there was one problem area maybe you could look for a turnaround. Fielding has been sketchy, base running is a joke, team doesn’t hit or even put the ball in play with authority, starters don’t consistently get length. Middle guys in pen are inconsistent. Coaches can’t seem to shake them out of the funk. Season is almost half way over. They are what they are |
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Post by rgeorge on Mar 27, 2023 12:57:38 GMT -8
Hitting with 2 strikes is a bitch. The players listed below were the top 5 in WAR that year. Beaver hitter need to see this. Conversely the MLB average for a 3-0 and 3-1 count is .375. Even a 1-0 and 2-0 count yields a .345 average. Win the count battle and be aggressive when it’s in your favor Jose Altuve: 0-2: .255, 1-2: .235, 2-2: .151 Mike Trout: 0-2: .172, 1-2: .188, 2-2: .183 Aaron Judge: 0-2: .184, 1-2: 172, 2-2: .165 Giancarlo Stanton: 0-2: .100, 1-2: .132, 2-2: .147 Charlie Blackmon: 0-2: .259, 1-2: 218, 2-2: .248 Not only players, but fans needs to wake up on realistic expectations for hitters. This team is truly under performing, but hitting a baseball maybe the single most difficult athletic skill. But, this team isn't terrible behind in the count, as mentioned they are terrible taking advantage of "positive" counts and then facing "negative" counts The only recent #'s I have seen from D1 baseball data where pitch-by-pitch data was available, 2014-2019: Data for each "at count" plate appearance: Count BA SLG K% BB%0-0 .320 .446 1-0 .346 .505 2-0 .356 .542 2-1 .340 .488 3-0 .373 .624 88% 3-1 .358 .533 88% 0-1 .329 .440 1-1 .320 .459 1-2 .178 .231 42.5% 0-2 .162 .212 40.9% 2-2 .195 .260 38.6% 3-2 .220 .310 21.8% 33.8% As stated by others OSU is not utilizing "hitter's counts" and getting into too many negative 2-strike counts where success is very limited. This especially occurs in those that lead off innings. Data for the chance of a run(s) scoring in an inning is highly influenced by the leadoff hitter. Strikeout 17% "Field" out 18% Single 47% HBP 50% Walk 50% Error 55% Xtra base 67%+ (2B 67%, 3B 87%, HR 100%) I suppose the good news is that I do not see a way this team continues to be under the Mendoza Line. If so, it really doesn't matter what the pitching does. But, it is really tough as a staff to know they have to continually go out and throw "0's" up on the scoreboard. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 27, 2023 13:11:17 GMT -8
RPI 99.....we have a long road to the post season. We will need to win damn near all our remaining series. Might be room for a slip up, or two, but the post season seems like a pipe dream for this team, based on what we've seen so far. from what we have seen, I think you can stick a fork in this team. If there was one problem area maybe you could look for a turnaround. Fielding has been sketchy, base running is a joke, team doesn’t hit or even put the ball in play with authority, starters don’t consistently get length. Middle guys in pen are inconsistent. Coaches can’t seem to shake them out of the funk. Season is almost half way over. They are what they are Five two-run losses. Only 40% of the season over. At least 60% left. The issues that you talk about are present every single year with the possible exception of base running. You can go back and read pretty much everything that you are reading about every team outside of 2017 at some point in every season, 2018 included. You can go back and read posts in 2018 after the Utah and Arizona series losses. Fehmel sucks (mostly after his Utah meltdown, not so much after his coming back and throwing a gem against Arizona). No third starter. Mully sucks. There is no one in the bullpen besides Eisert. Eisert should start. Abel is a head case and shouldn't be playing. Only Kwan, Cadyn, and Rutsch can hit. (Madrigal had been hurt since Surprise.) Larnach strikes out too much. No one else can hit the ball consistently enough. And Missouri State is a monster and is going to kill us. And I laugh, and I laugh, and I laugh, and I laugh. |
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Post by irimi on Mar 27, 2023 14:23:40 GMT -8
RPI 99.....we have a long road to the post season. We will need to win damn near all our remaining series. Might be room for a slip up, or two, but the post season seems like a pipe dream for this team, based on what we've seen so far. I think it's a bit early to give up on this team. What keeps me going is how close many of the losses were. All we needed was one more hit at the right time....It's also what keeps us frustrated. LOL |
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Post by irimi on Mar 27, 2023 14:30:18 GMT -8
from what we have seen, I think you can stick a fork in this team. If there was one problem area maybe you could look for a turnaround. Fielding has been sketchy, base running is a joke, team doesn’t hit or even put the ball in play with authority, starters don’t consistently get length. Middle guys in pen are inconsistent. Coaches can’t seem to shake them out of the funk. Season is almost half way over. They are what they are Five two-run losses. Only 40% of the season over. At least 60% left. The issues that you talk about are present every single year with the possible exception of base running. You can go back and read pretty much everything that you are reading about every team outside of 2017 at some point in every season, 2018 included. You can go back and read posts in 2018 after the Utah and Arizona series losses. Fehmel sucks (mostly after his Utah meltdown, not so much after his coming back and throwing a gem against Arizona). No third starter. Mully sucks. There is no one in the bullpen besides Eisert. Eisert should start. Abel is a head case and shouldn't be playing. Only Kwan, Cadyn, and Rutsch can hit. (Madrigal had been hurt since Surprise.) Larnach strikes out too much. No one else can hit the ball consistently enough. And Missouri State is a monster and is going to kill us. And I laugh, and I laugh, and I laugh, and I laugh. Base running gaffes have been of an aggressive nature. I'd rather see that than the opposite, so I can let them slide. I remember lamenting much of last year for the same hitting problem, but Boyd, Meckler, and Melton came together as the right combination. We still lacked a quality bat at 3b, and everybody hated Dernedde's bat. This year, the results aren't great yet, but we can still make a push and come together at the right time. Everyone says you want to be hot at the end of the year. So let's see how we develop toward that goal. |
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Post by jayvinson on Mar 27, 2023 14:47:22 GMT -8
Please stop being rational.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Mar 27, 2023 15:19:02 GMT -8
from what we have seen, I think you can stick a fork in this team. If there was one problem area maybe you could look for a turnaround. Fielding has been sketchy, base running is a joke, team doesn’t hit or even put the ball in play with authority, starters don’t consistently get length. Middle guys in pen are inconsistent. Coaches can’t seem to shake them out of the funk. Season is almost half way over. They are what they are Five two-run losses. Only 40% of the season over. At least 60% left. The issues that you talk about are present every single year with the possible exception of base running. You can go back and read pretty much everything that you are reading about every team outside of 2017 at some point in every season, 2018 included. You can go back and read posts in 2018 after the Utah and Arizona series losses. Fehmel sucks (mostly after his Utah meltdown, not so much after his coming back and throwing a gem against Arizona). No third starter. Mully sucks. There is no one in the bullpen besides Eisert. Eisert should start. Abel is a head case and shouldn't be playing. Only Kwan, Cadyn, and Rutsch can hit. (Madrigal had been hurt since Surprise.) Larnach strikes out too much. No one else can hit the ball consistently enough. And Missouri State is a monster and is going to kill us. And I laugh, and I laugh, and I laugh, and I laugh. Sure.....some us may be more skeptical.....and yea, there's plenty of ball to play still. I'm just not seeing it with THIS club. The young dudes need A LOT of work at the plate. The pitching and defense seem to be coming around, so who knows?? But unless some young uns really emerge in the second half of the season....and we get a good amount of lucky bounces.....just not seeing it...... Especially based on where we currently sit, and what is left in front of us. I mean I'm not saying we are cooked, but it would take a pretty epic run......I will always eat crow when I'm wrong, and would HAPPILY do so if this team makes the postseason! |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Mar 27, 2023 15:43:09 GMT -8
Let's just look at some worst case stuff to see how bad a position we are in.
We have 6 OoC games that should be competitive, UO, 2 Zags, GCU and 2 UP. The other 5 are Seattle and Western Carolina which should be wins. So let's say we win the 5 and split the rest that gets us to 23-12.
If we only win 1 game of all remaining P12 series that gets us 7 wins for a record of 30-26. That's right, an absolutely disastrous second half of zero conference series wins and splitting the competitive OoC gets us borderline regional bid on a down year.
Let's say we go 11-10 in our remaining confer nce games, that's 34-22.
Finally if we hit something closer to expectation and win 2/3 of the remaining conference games. 14 wins gets us to 37-19.
So 8-3 OoC and 2/3rd of the 21 conference games gets us a pretty solid RPI and a bid to a regional even on very tight years.
Were far from done and the team hasn't even played well. Imagine if they start to click?
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Mar 27, 2023 16:24:29 GMT -8
Let's just look at some worst case stuff to see how bad a position we are in. We have 6 OoC games that should be competitive, UO, 2 Zags, GCU and 2 UP. The other 5 are Seattle and Western Carolina which should be wins. So let's say we win the 5 and split the rest that gets us to 23-12. If we only win 1 game of all remaining P12 series that gets us 7 wins for a record of 30-26. That's right, an absolutely disastrous second half of zero conference series wins and splitting the competitive OoC gets us borderline regional bid on a down year. Let's say we go 11-10 in our remaining confer nce games, that's 34-22. Finally if we hit something closer to expectation and win 2/3 of the remaining conference games. 14 wins gets us to 37-19. So 8-3 OoC and 2/3rd of the 21 conference games gets us a pretty solid RPI and a bid to a regional even on very tight years. Were far from done and the team hasn't even played well. Imagine if they start to click? It really matters what our RPI ends up being, especially if we are borderline. I'm far from giving up, but I'm also realistic about what we've done, what we have left to face, and what the likelihood of post season is. |
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Post by chinmusic on Mar 27, 2023 17:20:38 GMT -8
The objective of the game is to win it. Wins should be celebrated. The W-L standings do not differentiate pretty from ugly - just "W".
Good coaches approach W's and L's as "winning and learning". Good teams learn from a loss, losses are a learning experience, a pathway to improvement.
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Post by rgeorge on Mar 27, 2023 17:39:28 GMT -8
Good coaches know W & L's are outcomes. They determine team rankings and post season berths. But, more importantly these coaches impart that the players are in a long process. The game itself is a constant learning process, not dependent on the outcome.
Baseball is a game of "failure" and every minute of every practice and game gives the player opportunities to glean knowledge. Each opportunity gives players the chance to overcome adversity.
Players typically don't learn "more" from a loss. But, sometimes coaching points are "heard" more clearly with that outcome.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 27, 2023 18:06:00 GMT -8
Let's just look at some worst case stuff to see how bad a position we are in. We have 6 OoC games that should be competitive, UO, 2 Zags, GCU and 2 UP. The other 5 are Seattle and Western Carolina which should be wins. So let's say we win the 5 and split the rest that gets us to 23-12. If we only win 1 game of all remaining P12 series that gets us 7 wins for a record of 30-26. That's right, an absolutely disastrous second half of zero conference series wins and splitting the competitive OoC gets us borderline regional bid on a down year. Let's say we go 11-10 in our remaining confer nce games, that's 34-22. Finally if we hit something closer to expectation and win 2/3 of the remaining conference games. 14 wins gets us to 37-19. So 8-3 OoC and 2/3rd of the 21 conference games gets us a pretty solid RPI and a bid to a regional even on very tight years. Were far from done and the team hasn't even played well. Imagine if they start to click? This is probably the weakest non-conference slate since at least 2017. Three games against Coppin State AND Western Carolina? Why?  Gonzaga And Seattle are each going to be RPI-killers this year, as well, unless both really kick it into gear over the rest of the season. Utah will probably be an albatross around all of our necks, as usual. Minnesota impressively has lost every single weekend game, only winning five midweek games so far. We really need New Mexico to beat Texas Tech tomorrow. Otherwise, the Lobos are beginning to look like an RPI sink, as well. If we go 35-21, given our schedule, our RPI is probably in the 90s. Oregon State really needs to go at least 16-14 in conference, unless the Beavers just kill it in nonconference play or our opponents and opponents' opponents start playing out of their minds. And even that may not be enough. Maybe, if like all of those Western Carolina games rain out? And the two Seattle games? And maybe the Gonzaga games, as well? RPI is worthless, as usual, but it could really hammer us this year. The Committee, also, only rarely shows a real affinity for metrics that actually make sense. |
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Post by messi on Mar 27, 2023 19:45:39 GMT -8
Let's just look at some worst case stuff to see how bad a position we are in. We have 6 OoC games that should be competitive, UO, 2 Zags, GCU and 2 UP. The other 5 are Seattle and Western Carolina which should be wins. So let's say we win the 5 and split the rest that gets us to 23-12. If we only win 1 game of all remaining P12 series that gets us 7 wins for a record of 30-26. That's right, an absolutely disastrous second half of zero conference series wins and splitting the competitive OoC gets us borderline regional bid on a down year. Let's say we go 11-10 in our remaining confer nce games, that's 34-22. Finally if we hit something closer to expectation and win 2/3 of the remaining conference games. 14 wins gets us to 37-19. So 8-3 OoC and 2/3rd of the 21 conference games gets us a pretty solid RPI and a bid to a regional even on very tight years. Were far from done and the team hasn't even played well. Imagine if they start to click? This is probably the weakest non-conference slate since at least 2017. Three games against Coppin State AND Western Carolina? Why? Gonzaga And Seattle are each going to be RPI-killers this year, as well, unless both really kick it into gear over the rest of the season. Utah will probably be an albatross around all of our necks, as usual. Minnesota impressively has lost every single weekend game, only winning five midweek games so far. We really need New Mexico to beat Texas Tech tomorrow. Otherwise, the Lobos are beginning to look like an RPI sink, as well. If we go 35-21, given our schedule, our RPI is probably in the 90s. Oregon State really needs to go at least 16-14 in conference, unless the Beavers just kill it in nonconference play or our opponents and opponents' opponents start playing out of their minds. And even that may not be enough. Maybe, if like all of those Western Carolina games rain out? And the two Seattle games? And maybe the Gonzaga games, as well? RPI is worthless, as usual, but it could really hammer us this year. The Committee, also, only rarely shows a real affinity for metrics that actually make sense. Can't fault the scheduling of Western Carolina, who is good that has an open weekend that late in the season? |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 27, 2023 22:12:44 GMT -8
This is probably the weakest non-conference slate since at least 2017. Three games against Coppin State AND Western Carolina? Why? Gonzaga And Seattle are each going to be RPI-killers this year, as well, unless both really kick it into gear over the rest of the season. Utah will probably be an albatross around all of our necks, as usual. Minnesota impressively has lost every single weekend game, only winning five midweek games so far. We really need New Mexico to beat Texas Tech tomorrow. Otherwise, the Lobos are beginning to look like an RPI sink, as well. If we go 35-21, given our schedule, our RPI is probably in the 90s. Oregon State really needs to go at least 16-14 in conference, unless the Beavers just kill it in nonconference play or our opponents and opponents' opponents start playing out of their minds. And even that may not be enough. Maybe, if like all of those Western Carolina games rain out? And the two Seattle games? And maybe the Gonzaga games, as well? RPI is worthless, as usual, but it could really hammer us this year. The Committee, also, only rarely shows a real affinity for metrics that actually make sense. Can't fault the scheduling of Western Carolina, who is good that has an open weekend that late in the season? I cannot promise that it is the world of teams. But this year, the teams that Oregon State could schedule that weekend are: Baylor, Cal State Bakersfield, Farleigh Dickinson, Fresno, Hartford, Illinois, McNeese, Miami (Ohio), Saint Mary's, Saint Peter's, San Diego, Tennessee-Martin, UMBC, VMI, and Western Carolina. Among those teams, Western Carolina is not among the teams that you would schedule, if you were worried about RPI. Not the worst, just far from the best. |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Mar 28, 2023 13:18:17 GMT -8
WCU's AD and No. 2 in the department both worked at Oregon State. That's probably why we are playing WCU.
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Gonzaga And Seattle are each going to be RPI-killers this year, as well, unless both really kick it into gear over the rest of the season. Utah will probably be an albatross around all of our necks, as usual. Minnesota impressively has lost every single weekend game, only winning five midweek games so far. We really need New Mexico to beat Texas Tech tomorrow. Otherwise, the Lobos are beginning to look like an RPI sink, as well.
