rafer
Sophomore
Posts: 1,626 
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Post by rafer on Mar 27, 2023 8:00:41 GMT -8
Yes, but we had a lot of players drafted after last season. We will have very few higher draft picks this year. There is a big drop off in talent from last season. Nobody was comparing last year to the 2017-2018 teams. Assuming Ferrer, Lattery and Bazzana get back to form they are the only guys I see as likely drafts besides Brown. Forrester might have a shot if he has a good season. That bodes well for next year as we should have a pretty experienced roster. This team has plenty of talent that's learning quick. What pray tell are they learning? Just not seeing any improvement at this point, hitting like a poor high school team, as far as draftees, zero that I see. They are folding up instead of getting better. Curious as to how you see them learning quick? So far this is heading into the dumpster and it's on fire. Pitching is spotty, and hitting would have to improve to be spotty. Sad state of the program... |
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Post by ricke71 on Mar 27, 2023 8:39:30 GMT -8
Not to overlook Seattle U. (oh! that's exactly what this post does): Friday night vs. UW will be a supreme test of whether the 'plate-illness' the Beavs currently suffer from has been cured or not.
Kiefer Lord is their Friday guy. Junior transfer from D-3. He lost 3/24 at UCLA but pitched well. On the season his BAA is .192 with 43 SO and only 8 BB in 34 innings. Last season in D-3: 49 IP with 81 SO and 7 BB.
Given the low BA, and the tendency to strike out, that the Beavs offense has exhibited it could be ugly. In 9 conference games: Beavs offense has a BA in full Mendoza territory (.191) with 88 SO (vs. 43 BB).
UW rpi zoomed to #42 after their road series win vs. UCLA. Won't be long before RPI starts to matter.
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Post by badwack on Mar 27, 2023 8:57:16 GMT -8
What is troubling is the inability to put the ball in play with runners on. It does seem we have cut down on swinging from our asses on every pitch. However, do we ever make Bat adjustments for better bat control? Moving up in the Box against junk. I know, old school and Metrics may say otherwise. However, we take far too many called 3rd Strikes and swinging K's with runners on. I say it is mental and you need to go up there determined to hit the Ball back at the Pitcher! Hit the damn ball, make something happen!
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Mar 27, 2023 9:00:55 GMT -8
Assuming Ferrer, Lattery and Bazzana get back to form they are the only guys I see as likely drafts besides Brown. Forrester might have a shot if he has a good season. That bodes well for next year as we should have a pretty experienced roster. This team has plenty of talent that's learning quick. What pray tell are they learning? Just not seeing any improvement at this point, hitting like a poor high school team, as far as draftees, zero that I see. They are folding up instead of getting better. Curious as to how you see them learning quick? So far this is heading into the dumpster and it's on fire. Pitching is spotty, and hitting would have to improve to be spotty. Sad state of the program... Pitching has not been spotty outside of a few bad appearances. If you cut out errors by the defense the pitching has been pretty solid. They are learning how to hit college pitchers who can locate and have multiple pitches. Not to mention multiple pitchers a game which is not always true in high school. We just won a series in which multiple guys started getting hits again. if winning a series is not improvement after losing two then your just arrogant and think we are destined to win every series all the time. We have only been that good in one season and that team didn't take it all. Our 9 losses suck but you realize most of them were extremely close games that we would have won with cleaner play and a few hits? Sure it could all crumple but so far they are still trucking away. People are projecting that cause we lost the first two series and had a tight series against Cal it means we lose to every team that is 'better' than Cal. That might happen but baseball rarely works that way. New guys learn, pitchers get tired and injuries pile up. A team with depth and some resiliency is going to do much better in the back half than other teams. We are already seeing WSU fall apart due to lack of pitching depth after a very good start. NMSU 2-7 (-5) worst loss [7H/11LOB] Cal Poly 2-4 (-2) [9H/11LOB] WSU 3-6 (-3) [7H/7LOB] WSU 1-3 (-2) [1H/7LOB] Nevada 1-5 (-4) [6H/11LOB] Stanford 8-9 (-1) [9H/6LOB] Stanford 5-8 (-3) [8H/10LOB] Stanford 4-5 (-1) [3H/0LOB] Cal 1-2 (-1) [4H/8LOB] We have an inexperienced team that makes errors, misses out on clutch opportunities and strikes out way too much. Anyone who watches us can see the talent is there but it keeps punching itself in the nuts. They stop the self inflicted bleeding and hit a bit better and they are more than capable of going on a tear through the remainder of conference play. |
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Post by beavaristotle on Mar 27, 2023 9:15:06 GMT -8
What is troubling is the inability to put the ball in play with runners on. It does seem we have cut down on swinging from our asses on every pitch. However, do we ever make Bat adjustments for better bat control? Moving up in the Box against junk. I know, old school and Metrics may say otherwise. However, we take far too many called 3rd Strikes and swinging K's with runners on. I say it is mental and you need to go up there determined to hit the Ball back at the Pitcher! Hit the damn ball, make something happen! not just called 3rd strikes. But how many of our hitter take 2-0 and 3-1 pitches ( hitter’s counts) that are right down the middle. Part of the pitcher/ hitter battle is trying to get an advantage in the count. Beavers hitter get to an advantage count and then let the pitchers right back in the count. Often times those hitters advantage counts are going to be the best pitches of the at bat. Hitters should be in attack mode in those counts. There’s an old time baseball saying that goes “ the best way to hit a curve ball is to hit the fastball on the pitch before “ |
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Post by badwack on Mar 27, 2023 9:20:45 GMT -8
I would agree the Pitching has certainly been better than our Hitting. This is the first time we have entered the Season without a real lock down Fri. Night Guy. While Sellers has been decent he sure leaves the ball up. I think Kmatz was really good this weekend and pitched well enough to win. The two Big Lefties look like the future. Maybe one of the two can become the Kevin Abel of 23. For what is worth I would pass out the following grades. Defense C+, Pitching B- and Hitting F.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Mar 27, 2023 9:39:02 GMT -8
Assuming Ferrer, Lattery and Bazzana get back to form they are the only guys I see as likely drafts besides Brown. Forrester might have a shot if he has a good season. That bodes well for next year as we should have a pretty experienced roster. This team has plenty of talent that's learning quick. What pray tell are they learning? Just not seeing any improvement at this point, hitting like a poor high school team, as far as draftees, zero that I see. They are folding up instead of getting better. Curious as to how you see them learning quick? So far this is heading into the dumpster and it's on fire. Pitching is spotty, and hitting would have to improve to be spotty. Sad state of the program... "Teacher says every time a bell rings Rafer's ripped another player or coach." |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Mar 27, 2023 9:46:13 GMT -8
I would agree the Pitching has certainly been better than our Hitting. This is the first time we have entered the Season without a real lock down Fri. Night Guy. While Sellers has been decent he sure leaves the ball up. I think Kmatz was really good this weekend and pitched well enough to win. The two Big Lefties look like the future. Maybe one of the two can become the Kevin Abel of 23. For what is worth I would pass out the following grades. Defense C+, Pitching B- and Hitting F. yeah those grades are fair. I'd give an F+ for base running. |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Mar 27, 2023 11:11:46 GMT -8
RPI 99.....we have a long road to the post season. We will need to win damn near all our remaining series. Might be room for a slip up, or two, but the post season seems like a pipe dream for this team, based on what we've seen so far.
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Post by grackle on Mar 27, 2023 12:00:09 GMT -8
RPI 99.....we have a long road to the post season. We will need to win damn near all our remaining series. Might be room for a slip up, or two, but the post season seems like a pipe dream for this team, based on what we've seen so far. Canham/Dorman seem able to recruit, but IMO have proven to be poor in-game strategists and managers. They also seem to lack the ability and/or knowledge to teach some critical skills (e.g., base-running, adjusting batting strategy, etc.). The result is that they seem to get less from their players than they are capable of. When PC retired, Barnes' decision to opt for radical change from the hyper-successful Casey-era regime was a mistake. Better not fix something when it isn't broke (believe me, I'd love nothing more than be proven wrong and eat some crow on this. BTW, I'm also aware that hiring MC was likely at Casey's behest. Well, no one's perfect). |
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Post by beavaristotle on Mar 27, 2023 12:08:35 GMT -8
Hitting with 2 strikes is a bitch. The players listed below were the top 5 in WAR that year. Beaver hitter need to see this. Conversely the MLB average for a 3-0 and 3-1 count is .375. Even a 1-0 and 2-0 count yields a .345 average. Win the count battle and be aggressive when it’s in your favor
Jose Altuve: 0-2: .255, 1-2: .235, 2-2: .151
Mike Trout: 0-2: .172, 1-2: .188, 2-2: .183
Aaron Judge: 0-2: .184, 1-2: 172, 2-2: .165
Giancarlo Stanton: 0-2: .100, 1-2: .132, 2-2: .147
Charlie Blackmon: 0-2: .259, 1-2: 218, 2-2: .248
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Mar 27, 2023 12:20:31 GMT -8
RPI 99.....we have a long road to the post season. We will need to win damn near all our remaining series. Might be room for a slip up, or two, but the post season seems like a pipe dream for this team, based on what we've seen so far. Canham/Dorman seem able to recruit, but IMO have proven to be poor in-game strategists and managers. They also seem to lack the ability and/or knowledge to teach some critical skills (e.g., base-running, adjusting batting strategy, etc.). The result is that they seem to get less from their players than they are capable of. When PC retired, Barnes' decision to opt for radical change from the hyper-successful Casey-era regime was a mistake. Better not fix something when it isn't broke (believe me, I'd love nothing more than be proven wrong and eat some crow on this. BTW, I'm also aware that hiring MC was likely at Casey's behest. Well, no one's perfect). Can't argue with this, to this point. I think next season, as long we keep the majority of the young guys around, will very telling......should be built up to make a run. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 27, 2023 12:25:46 GMT -8
RPI 99.....we have a long road to the post season. We will need to win damn near all our remaining series. Might be room for a slip up, or two, but the post season seems like a pipe dream for this team, based on what we've seen so far. RPI is very much a work in progress right now. Stanford is up 2-0 on Utah right now. If Stanford wins, Oregon State probably jumps up to 98. If Stanford loses, Oregon State probably falls to 102. Massey has Oregon State ranked 40th, which I believe is a much more accurate representation of how the season is going, fourth-best in the Pac-12. Massey has the Beavs ranked 7th in the country in "defense" (which is more like defense and pitching), second-best in the Pac-12 behind UCLA, and 44th in offense, fifth-best in the Pac-12. Five losses so far in games decided by two runs or fewer. 13-4 in all other games. That is the most one- and two-run losses at this point in the season since 2011. (Of course, in 2011 all five losses at this point in the season were decided by two or fewer runs.) That team would lose the next two by a combined 23 runs. After those two huge losses, 2011 Oregon State went 20-5 over the next 25 to look to be close to securing a National Seed before losing the final five and barely netting a Regional Host spot. Oregon State is close, just not there. Hitters need to start coming through, or this could be a long season. |
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Post by jdogge on Mar 27, 2023 12:31:49 GMT -8
RPI 99.....we have a long road to the post season. We will need to win damn near all our remaining series. Might be room for a slip up, or two, but the post season seems like a pipe dream for this team, based on what we've seen so far. I think it's a bit early to give up on this team. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 27, 2023 12:39:42 GMT -8
Assuming that Oregon State goes 8-3 in nonconference, Oregon State probably need to go 13-8 or better to be in line for an at large berth. Probably need a conference win to cancel out any excess non-conference losses. That should be enough. A win or two beyond that close to clinches it, unless the Beavers just implode in the Pac-12 Tournament.
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