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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 2, 2022 16:19:17 GMT -8
True, In 2018 Casey had Heimlich ready to go game 2 against the LSU/San Diego St winner.(LSU won) We then proceeded to blow out LSU twice, sending them back to Baton Rouge.....humiliated. Plus, part of every tourney staffing decision is the quality/depth of that staff. It's a bit easier when you've got guys like Turpin, Patterson, Gundy, etc. Add, the use of pens and starters is a bit different than say '05-'07. For example, no way they use Cooper like Jonah in '06. One of the thoughts on why you throw Hjerpe first is that it seems like he can pitch on short rest. He threw 93 pitches against McNeese State in game two last year and then came back on one days' rest to throw an additional 20 against Dallas Baptist. That is somewhat reminiscent of Matt Boyd in 2013, who Casey threw first in the Regional, and it worked out. In the Super Regional, Boyd threw 123 pitches on Saturday and then threw 21 for the save on Monday on one day's rest. At Omaha, he threw an inning on Saturday and then came back on three days' rest to throw 116 pitches in a complete game four-hit 1-0 shutout. Joe Paterson (Saturday starter) threw six innings in game one in 2007 against Rutgers, and Turpen threw three innings to pick up his first save in the season. Casey saved Mike Stutes for Virginia to no avail. Stutes threw 6.1 but threw to one too many hitters, which allowed the Cavs to tie the game up in the seventh, the Beavs ultimately dropping the game in 13 innings. Tropical Storm Barry rolled through on the third, wiping out Sunday and moving everything back a day. That enabled Turpen to throw 7.1 innings over the two games (picked up the save in game one against Rutgers and started game two against Virginia) on Monday on two days' rest. Paterson also threw 3.2 innings on Monday on two days' rest and additional 3 innings on Tuesday. Paterson remained in the pen for the rest of the postseason. Stutes also returned on two days' rest and threw 4.1 in his Tuesday start. It would not surprise me, if Mitchy Slick throws Hjerpe like Nickerson, if pressed. I don't know if Hjerpe will be able to answer that call, though. Plus, hopefully, the 2022 staff is deeper than the one in 2006. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 2, 2022 16:33:18 GMT -8
I added Wilkypedia data on when we pitched our number 1 since 2009 to post above. Saving the Ace for game 2 resulted in 3 clean sweep regional victories (3-0 regional record), using the ace in game 1 led to a 1-7 regional record...ouch. To be fair most of those regional losses were on the road, but still 1-7 with 2 of the regional losses at home. I am convinced that saving the ace for game 2 is the correct answer. I would be interested to see who specifically was the "ace" and who was the #2 (or 3)? It seems like some of those years it was interchangeable. Moore, Wetzler, Fry? Who was with Boyd? Even recently Heimlich had the most MLB potential but did he win more than Fehmal? 2005, 6, and 7, I don't remember specifically but Buck was awesome one year, Nickerson would never lose and Turpin and Patterson would imitate Spahn and Sain in post-season. Wetzler was the ace in 2014, but he could not pitch on Saturday. I want to say that that was a precautionary move, because of a complaint that Wetzler had in warm-ups..........if I remember right. Between Moore and Fry, Moore was the ace. Boyd pitched with Moore and Wetzler and then was replaced with Fry after Boyd graduated. Wetzler was the third starter in 2013 but was the ace in 2014. In 2013, Boyd was the ace and threw first. That was insurance, in case Oregon State lost game one or two of the Regional or Super Regional. Boyd was a converted reliever and could throw in a pinch on as little as one days' rest. Boyd relieved Wetzler in the Super Regional on one days' rest. Moore started game one in Omaha with Boyd relieving him. Boyd then threw on three days' rest, but Moore threw a stinker against Mississippi State two days' later. (The offense only scored two runs over the final 19 innings, so the issue was really lack o f run support.) |
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Post by beaver55to7 on Jun 2, 2022 16:58:31 GMT -8
Since you've never been much for intelligent discussion, the only game that matters is the one you're playing. Again, whatever MC decides is what he thinks best. And, bringing in what PC did is a not only a comparison, but as most "get" has zero to do with this regional. But, you do know "blah blah blah"... expert at it. Go Beavs I’m convinced that’s what’s happened in the past has no bearing on this year. We were the first team in 2006 to win the maximum number of elimination games to win the whole thing. If we would have looked at the stats then, we should have just lost game 2 and given up. Different teams, different year. Stats from the past mean s%#t. I don’t think that is a solid take. That’s like saying Meltons stats won’t matter when he faces a unknown to him NM st pitcher. Of course his stats matter and of course it will change how NM st pitches to him and how MC calls plays during his at bat. And then you try to make some kind of weird case that since stats don’t predetermine every outcome, they are useless. Stats don’t tell you the outcome of a situation, they tell you the most likely outcome. Just because you shift the infield when the stats tell you to doesn’t mean the hitter will not beat the shift, it just means he is less likely to beat you with a hit then without shifting. We can (will) win the regional starting our ace on Friday, we also can (will) win the regional if we save our ace for Saturday. It’s just that the limited stats we have to work with imply we have a better chance of winning if we save our ace for the second game. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Jun 2, 2022 17:24:29 GMT -8
I’m convinced that’s what’s happened in the past has no bearing on this year. We were the first team in 2006 to win the maximum number of elimination games to win the whole thing. If we would have looked at the stats then, we should have just lost game 2 and given up. Different teams, different year. Stats from the past mean s%#t. I don’t think that is a solid take. That’s like saying Meltons stats won’t matter when he faces a unknown to him NM st pitcher. Of course his stats matter and of course it will change how NM st pitches to him and how MC calls plays during his at bat. And then you try to make some kind of weird case that since stats don’t predetermine every outcome, they are useless. Stats don’t tell you the outcome of a situation, they tell you the most likely outcome. Just because you shift the infield when the stats tell you to doesn’t mean the hitter will not beat the shift, it just means he is less likely to beat you with a hit then without shifting. We can (will) win the regional starting our ace on Friday, we also can (will) win the regional if we save our ace for Saturday. It’s just that the limited stats we have to work with imply we have a better chance of winning if we save our ace for the second game. That has nothing to do with my post. Of course Melton’s stats matter. He is on the current team. But tournament statistics over the last 20 years have no effect on what will happen in this tournament. |
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Post by abureid on Jun 2, 2022 18:22:28 GMT -8
Stats are not nearly as important as luck and superstion. Piss off the Baseball Gods and we will quickly pay the price.
It is nearly time to break out my 07 hat, the B2B shirt will wait for another week.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 2, 2022 19:02:18 GMT -8
86.11%. It might not seem like it should make that big of a difference, but it does. Since 2005, the percentage of times that a #1 seed won the regional after starting: LW: 50.00%WL: 26.87%
#1 seeds are 86.11% more likely to win a regional after starting with a loss then win than with a win then loss. Game two is 86.11% more important than game one for a #1 seed. Unless you have a sleeper four-seed, who is criminally underrated or the #2-#3 game went 27 innings and both teams threw their entire staffs or you have a #4-seed or probable #2-#3 seed that is lefty- or righty-heavy, a #1 seed does not throw its ace on Friday. That is dumb baseball. That data breaks my brain. It makes no sense to me why there’d be a substantial difference. My best guess is that by the time you play then 2 or 3 seed that won their game 1 and 2, their 3rd starter is less likely to be better than the 1 seed’s fourth starter. Isn’t there also the factor of having then game 1 starter available on show eta rest for a potential game 5? Winning percentage in game three: LW: 100.00%
WL: 72.73%
Winning percentage in game four:
LW: 65.00%
WL: 56.25%
Winning percentage in game five:
LW: 84.62%
WL: 62.96%
The biggest delta is game three. A #1 seed, who loses game one and with more rest is able to beat a lower seed every single time the afternoon after the lower seed lost in game two. That is where I expected to see the biggest delta, and it is there.
The delta in game five is surprising. I suppose that it is hard to win three games less than 48 hours after a loss?
Does this help? |
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Post by beaverboilermaker on Jun 2, 2022 19:06:19 GMT -8
I think I chime in on this every year, but this year is more complicated. Usually I post about matchups and when to use the LHP (Luke being the most recent example). And that is important this year, too. Having good LHP in this regional appears to be at a premium, including against OSU. - NM State - 6 regulars batting over .300, with 4 bat Lt, 1 Rt, 1 Switch
- Vandy - Top 6 regular batters - 4 bat Lt, 2 bat Rt. (2 of 3 batting over .300 bat Lt)
- SanDiego - I could not find a roster with which batters box they use, and too lazy to look thru highlight clips to figure it out
The arguments about "gotta win the 1st", or stats about winning the Regional with a loss in either Game 1 or Game 2, are all worth discussing as well as the actual pitching matchup. IMHO the games get more important the longer you go in the Regional. Of course Game 7 is the most important, because it's winner take all, but there is no guarantee you get to Game 7 (or any game beyond Saturday for that matter). Each team is guaranteed 2 games, and you MUST win 1 to play a 3rd, so pitching to matchups to give yourself the best chance to win BOTH games 1 & 2 is more important than either game individually.
For the #1 seed, saving your top pitcher for a Saturday game matchup against one of the other 2 best teams in your Regional frequently works out well. And it makes sense, because part of winning Regionals is about giving losses to your top competition. Saving a clear #1 pitcher for Saturday guarantees you have the best chance to give either the 2 or 3 seeds a loss. And even with a Game 1 loss to a #4 seed, you have a better chance with a deeper staff to come back and win against that #4 on Sunday (and Monday if that is who you face). So even without the pitcher/batter matchup, I prefer a clear ace for a #1 seed to start Saturday.
But this year the new Pac11 tournament and its horrible double-elimination format screwed it up. OSU's staff threw 27 innings between Saturday and Sunday. Worse, the staff combined to throw 593 pitches, mostly in the heat. So everybody threw a lot on Saturday and Sunday. Everybody but Cooper, who pitched Thursday.
So the question is whether Pfennigs and the pen have enough rest to get through an important game on Friday. If Mitch and his coaching staff think they can, they will hold Cooper for Saturday. If not, I predict they'll try to give all the top relievers Friday off and ride Cooper until the offense can put the game away.
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Post by giantkillers83 on Jun 2, 2022 19:19:01 GMT -8
We…will soon find out. See y’all there tomorrow. Go Beavs.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 2, 2022 19:26:10 GMT -8
I think I chime in on this every year, but this year is more complicated. Usually I post about matchups and when to use the LHP (Luke being the most recent example). And that is important this year, too. Having good LHP in this regional appears to be at a premium, including against OSU. - NM State - 6 regulars batting over .300, with 4 bat Lt, 1 Rt, 1 Switch
- Vandy - Top 6 regular batters - 4 bat Lt, 2 bat Rt. (2 of 3 batting over .300 bat Lt)
- SanDiego - I could not find a roster with which batters box they use, and too lazy to look thru highlight clips to figure it out
The arguments about "gotta win the 1st", or stats about winning the Regional with a loss in either Game 1 or Game 2, are all worth discussing as well as the actual pitching matchup. IMHO the games get more important the longer you go in the Regional. Of course Game 7 is the most important, because it's winner take all, but there is no guarantee you get to Game 7 (or any game beyond Saturday for that matter). Each team is guaranteed 2 games, and you MUST win 1 to play a 3rd, so pitching to matchups to give yourself the best chance to win BOTH games 1 & 2 is more important than either game individually.
For the #1 seed, saving your top pitcher for a Saturday game matchup against one of the other 2 best teams in your Regional frequently works out well. And it makes sense, because part of winning Regionals is about giving losses to your top competition. Saving a clear #1 pitcher for Saturday guarantees you have the best chance to give either the 2 or 3 seeds a loss. And even with a Game 1 loss to a #4 seed, you have a better chance with a deeper staff to come back and win against that #4 on Sunday (and Monday if that is who you face). So even without the pitcher/batter matchup, I prefer a clear ace for a #1 seed to start Saturday.
But this year the new Pac11 tournament and its horrible double-elimination format screwed it up. OSU's staff threw 27 innings between Saturday and Sunday. Worse, the staff combined to throw 593 pitches, mostly in the heat. So everybody threw a lot on Saturday and Sunday. Everybody but Cooper, who pitched Thursday.
So the question is whether Pfennigs and the pen have enough rest to get through an important game on Friday. If Mitch and his coaching staff think they can, they will hold Cooper for Saturday. If not, I predict they'll try to give all the top relievers Friday off and ride Cooper until the offense can put the game away.
San Diego has three hitters hitting over .300. Of San Diego's top six hitters, three hit left and three hit right. New Mexico State appears to be the most left-leaning of the three teams in the Regional, so it probably makes sense throwing Hjerpe. I believe that San Diego has announced that they are throwing Mautz against Vandy, which is great, because I do not want Oregon State to have to hit against him. So, who throws against San Diego, Kmatz or Pfennigs? Pfennigs threw less and is on more rest, but Kmatz probably has a more rubbery arm and looked better in his last outing. |
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Post by 56chevy on Jun 2, 2022 20:16:32 GMT -8
I want Ben to throw.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Jun 3, 2022 6:26:09 GMT -8
We need to clone him cuz he's our best option in the pen as well. |
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Post by messi on Jun 3, 2022 13:25:43 GMT -8
So the starters for San Diego and Vanderbilt in the first game. Were either their Friday Ace guy?
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Post by beaver1989 on Jun 3, 2022 13:42:44 GMT -8
So the starters for San Diego and Vanderbilt in the first game. Were either their Friday Ace guy? I'm not sure how many Friday starts either pitcher has had, but these two are the best starters for Vandy & SD. I watched some highlights of Vandy's #2 starter who has pitched more innings than Holton. It looks like he throws 93 with a couple of breaking pitches. His stuff looks decent with some control issues, he'll walk some guys. |
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Post by zeroposter on Jun 3, 2022 13:46:23 GMT -8
The San Diego starter is excellent. Good to see both starters going.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 3, 2022 14:03:22 GMT -8
So the starters for San Diego and Vanderbilt in the first game. Were either their Friday Ace guy? Bryson Mautz has been the Saturday guy for San Diego, but he is the Toreros' best pitcher by a long way. Chris McElvain is Vandy's Friday night guy, and Carter Holton has been the Dores' Saturday starter. Holton has put up better numbers. Holton threw on Tuesday at Hoover, and McElvain threw on Friday. I believe that the plan was to throw Holton in the Championship Game, if the Dores got that far, but it did not happen. Because Holton is on nine days' rest, flipping them makes sense. If San Diego wins, you really, really want to beat New Mexico State to avoid playing McElvain and Vandy in the losers' bracket. You also get a Mautz-less San Diego. Bonus! |
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