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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 1, 2022 19:14:35 GMT -8
Winning game 1 is crucial. It sets up rest of regional. And we don’t want to be relying on pen all weekend. I think Hjerpe is right move. Need game 1. …. And… if we can’t get more than an inning out of Pfennigs… it’s a moot point anyway… our pen is not deep enough Winning game two is crucial. One is important, but it is much easier to come back from a game one loss than a game two loss. Unless there is a crazy rainstorm that wipes out the games on Sunday, ala 2007. The advantage to playing New Mexico State second is you get to see who wins and who pitched and make the decision accordingly. If the San Diego-Vandy winner saves their starter, Oregon State has to save Hjerpe, unless the winner just has a ton of hard-hitting righties. |
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Post by joecool on Jun 1, 2022 19:45:11 GMT -8
I wouldnt throw Kmatz. I would let Jake have a get right game. Then throw your ace against an SEC power rather than the true freshman who struggles to get you 5 against mediocre teams. Already assuming Vanderbilt wins against San Diego, don't be so sure about that. |
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Post by Judge Smails on Jun 1, 2022 19:58:15 GMT -8
Winning game 1 is crucial. It sets up rest of regional. And we don’t want to be relying on pen all weekend. I think Hjerpe is right move. Need game 1. …. And… if we can’t get more than an inning out of Pfennigs… it’s a moot point anyway… our pen is not deep enough Winning game two is crucial. One is important, but it is much easier to come back from a game one loss than a game two loss. Unless there is a crazy rainstorm that wipes out the games on Sunday, ala 2007. The advantage to playing New Mexico State second is you get to see who wins and who pitched and make the decision accordingly. If the San Diego-Vandy winner saves their starter, Oregon State has to save Hjerpe, unless the winner just has a ton of hard-hitting righties. How is it much easier if you lose game 1? Yes, you are playing an earlier game on day 2, but a few hours shouldn’t make that big of a difference. You still have to win the same number of games whether you lose game 1 or game 2 to win the regional. And either way, you have to win 2 games on Sunday. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Jun 1, 2022 20:20:24 GMT -8
Winning game two is crucial. One is important, but it is much easier to come back from a game one loss than a game two loss. Unless there is a crazy rainstorm that wipes out the games on Sunday, ala 2007. The advantage to playing New Mexico State second is you get to see who wins and who pitched and make the decision accordingly. If the San Diego-Vandy winner saves their starter, Oregon State has to save Hjerpe, unless the winner just has a ton of hard-hitting righties. How is it much easier if you lose game 1? Yes, you are playing an earlier game on day 2, but a few hours shouldn’t make that big of a difference. You still have to win the same number of games whether you lose game 1 or game 2 to win the regional. And either way, you have to win 2 games on Sunday. Only reason I could see is if the team reserved their best pitcher for game 2. Pretty thin. |
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Post by spudbeaver on Jun 1, 2022 20:21:35 GMT -8
Winning game 3 is essential. Wait…what?
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 1, 2022 21:33:43 GMT -8
Winning game two is crucial. One is important, but it is much easier to come back from a game one loss than a game two loss. Unless there is a crazy rainstorm that wipes out the games on Sunday, ala 2007. The advantage to playing New Mexico State second is you get to see who wins and who pitched and make the decision accordingly. If the San Diego-Vandy winner saves their starter, Oregon State has to save Hjerpe, unless the winner just has a ton of hard-hitting righties. Yes, you are playing an earlier game on day 2, but a few hours shouldn’t make that big of a difference. You still have to win the same number of games whether you lose game 1 or game 2 to win the regional. And either way, you have to win 2 games on Sunday. 86.11%. It might not seem like it should make that big of a difference, but it does. Since 2005, the percentage of times that a #1 seed won the regional after starting: LW: 50.00%WL: 26.87%
#1 seeds are 86.11% more likely to win a regional after starting with a loss then win than with a win then loss. Game two is 86.11% more important than game one for a #1 seed. Unless you have a sleeper four-seed, who is criminally underrated or the #2-#3 game went 27 innings and both teams threw their entire staffs or you have a #4-seed or probable #2-#3 seed that is lefty- or righty-heavy, a #1 seed does not throw its ace on Friday. That is dumb baseball. |
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Post by irimi on Jun 1, 2022 21:47:24 GMT -8
I’d start Ferrer on Friday. Get 5 good innings from him and you’re set.
Saturday, let Coop do it.
Sunday Kmatz.
Save Pfennigs for an extra game (if needed) or some relief.
I like keeping an ace in the hole, and I think Ferrer has pretty well proven that he can handle most teams.
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Post by rgeorge on Jun 1, 2022 23:26:20 GMT -8
So weird. This discussion is moot, right? It's been announced. Yep, could be altered, but I'm not sure the 2nd guessing when supposedly "in Mitch we trust"?
You don't set a rotation assuming you could lose G2 without your ace. You set your team up to win G1. Period.
If you want to play guessing games you hope to blast a #4 seed so a guy like Cooper might have a short night. Maybe he then has 20-30 pitches for a close on a Sunday, or Monday.
You deal with game 2 when game 1 is in the books.
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Post by Judge Smails on Jun 2, 2022 4:43:51 GMT -8
How is it much easier if you lose game 1? Yes, you are playing an earlier game on day 2, but a few hours shouldn’t make that big of a difference. You still have to win the same number of games whether you lose game 1 or game 2 to win the regional. And either way, you have to win 2 games on Sunday. 86.11%. It might not seem like it should make that big of a difference, but it does. Since 2005, the percentage of times that a #1 seed won the regional after starting: LW: 50.00%WL: 26.87%
#1 seeds are 86.11% more likely to win a regional after starting with a loss then win than with a win then loss. Game two is 86.11% more important than game one for a #1 seed. Unless you have a sleeper four-seed, who is criminally underrated or the #2-#3 game went 27 innings and both teams threw their entire staffs or you have a #4-seed or probable #2-#3 seed that is lefty- or righty-heavy, a #1 seed does not throw its ace on Friday. That is dumb baseball. Maybe we should save Coop for game 5 on Monday. 100% of the teams that win that game advance to the CWS. Stats. |
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Post by jrbeavo on Jun 2, 2022 7:21:23 GMT -8
86.11%. It might not seem like it should make that big of a difference, but it does. Since 2005, the percentage of times that a #1 seed won the regional after starting: LW: 50.00%WL: 26.87%
#1 seeds are 86.11% more likely to win a regional after starting with a loss then win than with a win then loss. Game two is 86.11% more important than game one for a #1 seed. Unless you have a sleeper four-seed, who is criminally underrated or the #2-#3 game went 27 innings and both teams threw their entire staffs or you have a #4-seed or probable #2-#3 seed that is lefty- or righty-heavy, a #1 seed does not throw its ace on Friday. That is dumb baseball. Maybe we should save Coop for game 5 on Monday. 100% of the teams that win that game advance to the CWS. Stats. That's pithy, what Wilky said is data. That is a large enough sample size to inform certain conclusions and thus certain decisions. This is a silly move by a relatively inexperienced college skipper in my not-so-humble opinion. Hopefully it doesn't bite us.. |
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Post by beaver1989 on Jun 2, 2022 7:53:41 GMT -8
How is it much easier if you lose game 1? Yes, you are playing an earlier game on day 2, but a few hours shouldn’t make that big of a difference. You still have to win the same number of games whether you lose game 1 or game 2 to win the regional. And either way, you have to win 2 games on Sunday. 86.11%. It might not seem like it should make that big of a difference, but it does. Since 2005, the percentage of times that a #1 seed won the regional after starting: LW: 50.00%WL: 26.87%
#1 seeds are 86.11% more likely to win a regional after starting with a loss then win than with a win then loss. Game two is 86.11% more important than game one for a #1 seed. Unless you have a sleeper four-seed, who is criminally underrated or the #2-#3 game went 27 innings and both teams threw their entire staffs or you have a #4-seed or probable #2-#3 seed that is lefty- or righty-heavy, a #1 seed does not throw its ace on Friday. That is dumb baseball. I don't like either of those odds, period. I like WW after 2 games. 2-0 after two games is where we want to be. |
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Post by jrbeavo on Jun 2, 2022 8:10:17 GMT -8
86.11%. It might not seem like it should make that big of a difference, but it does. Since 2005, the percentage of times that a #1 seed won the regional after starting: LW: 50.00%WL: 26.87%
#1 seeds are 86.11% more likely to win a regional after starting with a loss then win than with a win then loss. Game two is 86.11% more important than game one for a #1 seed. Unless you have a sleeper four-seed, who is criminally underrated or the #2-#3 game went 27 innings and both teams threw their entire staffs or you have a #4-seed or probable #2-#3 seed that is lefty- or righty-heavy, a #1 seed does not throw its ace on Friday. That is dumb baseball. I don't like either of those odds, period. I like WW after 2 games. 2-0 after two games is where we want to be. W after 1 is in the bag |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Jun 2, 2022 8:16:00 GMT -8
Is it Friday yet? All this splitting hairs has gotten very tedious.
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Post by vic1963 on Jun 2, 2022 8:16:41 GMT -8
I don't care who pitches when. All I want is for the Beavers to win their last game this year.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Jun 2, 2022 9:15:17 GMT -8
This is a silly move by a relatively inexperienced college skipper in my not-so-humble opinion. Hopefully it doesn't bite us.
Or, essentially the same philosophy Pat Casey used in almost every regional.
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