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Post by beaver1989 on Jun 2, 2022 10:02:10 GMT -8
Here is our Regional history since 2005. 2021 Fort Worth LWWWL 3-2 2019 Corvallis LL 0-2 2018 Corvallis 3-0 2017 Corvallis 3-0 2015 Dallas WLL 1-2 2014 Corvallis WLWWL 3-2 2013 Corvallis 3-0 2012 Baton Rouge WLWL 2-2 2011 Corvallis 3-0 2010 Gainesville WLL 1-2 2009 Fort Worth WLWL 2-2 2007 Charlottesville WLWWW 4-1 2006 Corvallis 3-0 2005 Corvallis 3-0 Since 2005 when we lose game 1 of a regional, we don't advance to a SR, its never happened. Losing game 1 has happened twice 2019 & 2021. Since 2005 when losing game 2 we've advanced once to a SR.(2007) here are the times we didnt(2009, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015, & 2019) From a historical perspective I want to be 2-0 after two. We've "cleared" the regional every time we've started 2-0, since 2005. |
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Post by hottubbeaver on Jun 2, 2022 10:23:50 GMT -8
NMSU's season record is not impressive. What they've done most recently is. They won their conference tournament going 4-0. With their back against the wall and any hope of a post season birth on the line, they delivered their best performances of the season. They're "hot".
We see it every year in baseball, teams get hot. Pitches, swings, and diving catches which were not made for most of their season all of a sudden turn into pitches, swings, and diving catches that are made. The entire mentality shifts and the just missed turns into just made.
NMSU is hot and confident right now and absolutely juiced to be in the post season. They have no external expectations so I would expect they will not be intimidated and play loose. Whether we throw Hjerpe or not Friday, I'm sure MC will not be looking past NMSU when deciding.
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Post by chinmusic on Jun 2, 2022 11:21:45 GMT -8
How I see it.
What Coach Canham decides is the right call. If you throw your ace in game 1, you increase your odds of being 1-0 when game 2 rolls around. "Play em one at a time", "Don't get ahead of yourself".
If you throw your number 2 guy in the opener because your opponent is weak and save your ace for the tougher opponent in game 2, you are counting on a matchup advantage. "Strength against strength"
You can win game 1 and game 2 with either approach. It still comes down to how you pitch and how you play in each game.
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Post by beaverstever on Jun 2, 2022 12:29:18 GMT -8
How is it much easier if you lose game 1? Yes, you are playing an earlier game on day 2, but a few hours shouldn’t make that big of a difference. You still have to win the same number of games whether you lose game 1 or game 2 to win the regional. And either way, you have to win 2 games on Sunday. 86.11%. It might not seem like it should make that big of a difference, but it does. Since 2005, the percentage of times that a #1 seed won the regional after starting: LW: 50.00%WL: 26.87%
#1 seeds are 86.11% more likely to win a regional after starting with a loss then win than with a win then loss. Game two is 86.11% more important than game one for a #1 seed. Unless you have a sleeper four-seed, who is criminally underrated or the #2-#3 game went 27 innings and both teams threw their entire staffs or you have a #4-seed or probable #2-#3 seed that is lefty- or righty-heavy, a #1 seed does not throw its ace on Friday. That is dumb baseball. That data breaks my brain. It makes no sense to me why there’d be a substantial difference. My best guess is that by the time you play then 2 or 3 seed that won their game 1 and 2, their 3rd starter is less likely to be better than the 1 seed’s fourth starter. Isn’t there also the factor of having then game 1 starter available on show eta rest for a potential game 5? |
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Post by beaver55to7 on Jun 2, 2022 14:06:29 GMT -8
Here is our Regional history since 2005. 2021 Fort Worth LWWWL 3-2 Threw Ace in game 1 2019 Corvallis LL 0-2 Threw Ace in game 1 2018 Corvallis 3-0 Saved Ace for game 2 2017 Corvallis 3-0 Saved Ace for game 2 2015 Dallas WLL 1-2 Threw Ace in game 1 2014 Corvallis WLWWL 3-2 Threw Ace in game 1 2013 Corvallis 3-0 Threw Ace in game 1 2012 Baton Rouge WLWL 2-2 Threw Ace in game 1 2011 Corvallis 3-0 Saved Ace for game 2 2010 Gainesville WLL 1-2 Threw Ace in game 1 2009 Fort Worth WLWL 2-2 Threw Ace in game 1 2007 Charlottesville WLWWW 4-1 2006 Corvallis 3-0 2005 Corvallis 3-0 Since 2005 when we lose game 1 of a regional, we don't advance to a SR, its never happened. Losing game 1 has happened twice 2019 & 2021. Since 2005 when losing game 2 we've advanced once to a SR.(2007) here are the times we didnt(2009, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015, & 2019) From a historical perspective I want to be 2-0 after two. We've "cleared" the regional every time we've started 2-0, since 2005. I added Wilkypedia data on when we pitched our number 1 since 2009 to post above. Saving the Ace for game 2 resulted in 3 clean sweep regional victories (3-0 regional record), using the ace in game 1 led to a 1-7 regional record...ouch. To be fair most of those regional losses were on the road, but still 1-7 with 2 of the regional losses at home. I am convinced that saving the ace for game 2 is the correct answer. |
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Post by beaver1989 on Jun 2, 2022 14:09:59 GMT -8
86.11%. It might not seem like it should make that big of a difference, but it does. Since 2005, the percentage of times that a #1 seed won the regional after starting: LW: 50.00%WL: 26.87%
#1 seeds are 86.11% more likely to win a regional after starting with a loss then win than with a win then loss. Game two is 86.11% more important than game one for a #1 seed. Unless you have a sleeper four-seed, who is criminally underrated or the #2-#3 game went 27 innings and both teams threw their entire staffs or you have a #4-seed or probable #2-#3 seed that is lefty- or righty-heavy, a #1 seed does not throw its ace on Friday. That is dumb baseball. That data breaks my brain. It makes no sense to me why there’d be a substantial difference. My best guess is that by the time you play then 2 or 3 seed that won their game 1 and 2, their 3rd starter is less likely to be better than the 1 seed’s fourth starter. Isn’t there also the factor of having then game 1 starter available on show eta rest for a potential game 5? #1 seeds rarely lose to #4 seeds for starters. In the last 6 Tournaments (2021-2015 minus 2020) it has happened 12 times. 1) Florida 0-2 in 2021 2) Oregon St 0-2 in 2019 3) E Carolina 4-1 in 2019 went 0-2 in Super Regional 4) Florida St 0-2 in 2018 5) Florida St 4-1 in 2017 went 2-0 in SR went 1-2 in Omaha 6) N Carolina 2-2 in 2017 7) Houston 2-2 in 2017 8) Ole Miss 0-2 in 2016 9) Vandy 0-2 in 2016 10) S Carolina 4-1 in 2016 went 0-2 in SR 11) UC Santa Barbara 0-2 in 2015 12) Dallas Baptist 2-2 in 2015 If you want a "hard road" to Omaha.......lose game 1 to a #4 seed. It makes it extremely tough. |
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Post by beaver55to7 on Jun 2, 2022 14:15:28 GMT -8
So weird. This discussion is moot, right? It's been announced. Yep, could be altered, but I'm not sure the 2nd guessing when supposedly "in Mitch we trust"? You don't set a rotation assuming you could lose G2 without your ace. You set your team up to win G1. Period. If you want to play guessing games you hope to blast a #4 seed so a guy like Cooper might have a short night. Maybe he then has 20-30 pitches for a close on a Sunday, or Monday. You deal with game 2 when game 1 is in the books. Except that according to Wilky, we saved our number 1 for game 2 in 2011, 2017, and 2018 and won all 3 regionals, much better then our record of throwing the ace in the first game (to be fair, 2017 and 2018 were teams that probably weren't getting beat in regionals no matter who we pitched). But Pat Casey certainly didn't believe you always had to pitch your number 1 first.period. |
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Post by ag87 on Jun 2, 2022 14:22:28 GMT -8
Here is our Regional history since 2005. 2021 Fort Worth LWWWL 3-2 Threw Ace in game 1 2019 Corvallis LL 0-2 Threw Ace in game 1 2018 Corvallis WWW 3-0 Saved Ace for game 2 2017 Corvallis WWW 3-0 Saved Ace for game 2 2015 Dallas WLL 1-2 Threw Ace in game 1 2014 Corvallis WLWWL 3-2 Threw Ace in game 1 2013 Corvallis WWW 3-0 Threw Ace in game 1 2012 Baton Rouge WLWL 2-2 Threw Ace in game 1 2011 Corvallis WWW 3-0 Saved Ace for game 2 2010 Gainesville WLL 1-2 Threw Ace in game 1 2009 Fort Worth WLWL 2-2 Threw Ace in game 1 2007 Charlottesville WLWWW 4-1 2006 Corvallis WWW 3-0 2005 Corvallis WWW 3-0 Since 2005 when we lose game 1 of a regional, we don't advance to a SR, its never happened. Losing game 1 has happened twice 2019 & 2021. Since 2005 when losing game 2 we've advanced once to a SR.(2007) here are the times we didnt(2009, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015, & 2019) From a historical perspective I want to be 2-0 after two. We've "cleared" the regional every time we've started 2-0, since 2005. I added Wilkypedia data on when we pitched our number 1 since 2009 to post above. Saving the Ace for game 2 resulted in 3 clean sweep regional victories (3-0 regional record), using the ace in game 1 led to a 1-7 regional record...ouch. To be fair most of those regional losses were on the road, but still 1-7 with 2 of the regional losses at home. I am convinced that saving the ace for game 2 is the correct answer. I would be interested to see who specifically was the "ace" and who was the #2 (or 3)? It seems like some of those years it was interchangeable. Moore, Wetzler, Fry? Who was with Boyd? Even recently Heimlich had the most MLB potential but did he win more than Fehmal? 2005, 6, and 7, I don't remember specifically but Buck was awesome one year, Nickerson would never lose and Turpin and Patterson would imitate Spahn and Sain in post-season. |
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Post by beaver1989 on Jun 2, 2022 14:23:37 GMT -8
So weird. This discussion is moot, right? It's been announced. Yep, could be altered, but I'm not sure the 2nd guessing when supposedly "in Mitch we trust"? You don't set a rotation assuming you could lose G2 without your ace. You set your team up to win G1. Period. If you want to play guessing games you hope to blast a #4 seed so a guy like Cooper might have a short night. Maybe he then has 20-30 pitches for a close on a Sunday, or Monday. You deal with game 2 when game 1 is in the books. Except that according to Wilky, we saved our number 1 for game 2 in 2011, 2017, and 2018 and won all 3 regionals, much better then our record of throwing the ace in the first game (to be fair, 2017 and 2018 were teams that probably weren't getting beat in regionals no matter who we pitched). But Pat Casey certainly didn't believe you always had to pitch your number 1 first.period. True, In 2018 Casey had Heimlich ready to go game 2 against the LSU/San Diego St winner.(LSU won) We then proceeded to blow out LSU twice, sending them back to Baton Rouge.....humiliated. |
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Post by rgeorge on Jun 2, 2022 14:24:13 GMT -8
So weird. This discussion is moot, right? It's been announced. Yep, could be altered, but I'm not sure the 2nd guessing when supposedly "in Mitch we trust"? You don't set a rotation assuming you could lose G2 without your ace. You set your team up to win G1. Period. If you want to play guessing games you hope to blast a #4 seed so a guy like Cooper might have a short night. Maybe he then has 20-30 pitches for a close on a Sunday, or Monday. You deal with game 2 when game 1 is in the books. Except that according to Wilky, we saved our number 1 for game 2 in 2011, 2017, and 2018 and won all 3 regionals, much better then our record of throwing the ace in the first game (to be fair, 2017 and 2018 were teams that probably weren't getting beat in regionals no matter who we pitched). But Pat Casey certainly didn't believe you always had to pitch your number 1 first.period. Not sure anyone was comparing PC and MC?! Plus, apples to oranges... seasons, postseason, teams, opponents are independent of one another. MC needs to find his own "road" to Omaha. He was a passenger before. He's the driver now. |
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Post by beaver55to7 on Jun 2, 2022 14:30:24 GMT -8
Except that according to Wilky, we saved our number 1 for game 2 in 2011, 2017, and 2018 and won all 3 regionals, much better then our record of throwing the ace in the first game (to be fair, 2017 and 2018 were teams that probably weren't getting beat in regionals no matter who we pitched). But Pat Casey certainly didn't believe you always had to pitch your number 1 first.period. Not sure anyone was comparing PC and MC?! Plus, apples to oranges... seasons, postseason, teams, opponents are independent of one another. MC needs to find his own "road" to Omaha. He was a passenger before. He's the driver now. I wasn't comparing PC to MC, I was comparing PC to your point blank blunt statement that we have to throw our number 1 in the first game. period. We don't have to, and we have had much success in the past when we didn't, regardless of you throwing out tired cliches about only playing the game in front of you blah blah blah. |
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elwood
Freshman
Posts: 212
Grad Year: 1994
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Post by elwood on Jun 2, 2022 14:36:27 GMT -8
More than likely Vandy will be throwing their #1 on Friday too. So if we meet them on Saturday we will both be with our #2 starters. In addition to that, I assume that Coach Canham has done a scouting report on both teams. Maybe a righty pairs up better against Vandy. Hjerpe also hasn’t been pitching his best stuff lately, maybe he’s not the best to go against Vandy at this time?
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Post by rgeorge on Jun 2, 2022 14:36:50 GMT -8
Except that according to Wilky, we saved our number 1 for game 2 in 2011, 2017, and 2018 and won all 3 regionals, much better then our record of throwing the ace in the first game (to be fair, 2017 and 2018 were teams that probably weren't getting beat in regionals no matter who we pitched). But Pat Casey certainly didn't believe you always had to pitch your number 1 first.period. True, In 2018 Casey had Heimlich ready to go game 2 against the LSU/San Diego St winner.(LSU won) We then proceeded to blow out LSU twice, sending them back to Baton Rouge.....humiliated. Plus, part of every tourney staffing decision is the quality/depth of that staff. It's a bit easier when you've got guys like Turpin, Patterson, Gundy, etc. Add, the use of pens and starters is a bit different than say '05-'07. For example, no way they use Cooper like Jonah in '06. |
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Post by rgeorge on Jun 2, 2022 14:41:49 GMT -8
Not sure anyone was comparing PC and MC?! Plus, apples to oranges... seasons, postseason, teams, opponents are independent of one another. MC needs to find his own "road" to Omaha. He was a passenger before. He's the driver now. I wasn't comparing PC to MC, I was comparing PC to your point blank blunt statement that we have to throw our number 1 in the first game. period. We don't have to, and we have had much success in the past when we didn't, regardless of you throwing out tired cliches about only playing the game in front of you blah blah blah. Since you've never been much for intelligent discussion, the only game that matters is the one you're playing. Again, whatever MC decides is what he thinks best. And, bringing in what PC did is a not only a comparison, but as most "get" has zero to do with this regional. But, you do know "blah blah blah"... expert at it. Go Beavs |
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Post by Judge Smails on Jun 2, 2022 15:33:32 GMT -8
I wasn't comparing PC to MC, I was comparing PC to your point blank blunt statement that we have to throw our number 1 in the first game. period. We don't have to, and we have had much success in the past when we didn't, regardless of you throwing out tired cliches about only playing the game in front of you blah blah blah. Since you've never been much for intelligent discussion, the only game that matters is the one you're playing. Again, whatever MC decides is what he thinks best. And, bringing in what PC did is a not only a comparison, but as most "get" has zero to do with this regional. But, you do know "blah blah blah"... expert at it. Go Beavs I’m convinced that’s what’s happened in the past has no bearing on this year. We were the first team in 2006 to win the maximum number of elimination games to win the whole thing. If we would have looked at the stats then, we should have just lost game 2 and given up. Different teams, different year. Stats from the past mean s%#t. |
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