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Post by nabeav on Mar 28, 2022 9:14:23 GMT -8
This conversation has been going in circles for years now, but just to be clear:
Nobody is saying we CAN'T do better than Tinkle. But I think it's pretty foolhardy to automatically think that we WILL do better.
And of course we'd do better than 3-28. But will the next coach be better enough to make a change worth it? Will the next coach go to two NCAAs in seven years, something only half of the Pac-12 has done in the last seven?
The next coach will almost assuredly have a better Pac-12 record, but having 2 seasons where you went a combined 2-36 have almost guaranteed that. But at Tinkle's current win percentage, the next coach would have to average between 7 and 8 conference wins a season to better it. So will the new coach be going 7-13 or 8-12 regularly? Maybe....but in most years Tinkle is at or better than that already. So if we want to see significant improvement over the course of the next coaches tenure, you're talking 9 to 10 conference wins a season.
This season 8 teams in conference got 10 wins (a mark made easier because the bottom 3 teams (OSU, Utah, Cal) each had five or fewer wins, something that's only happened once since the conference went to 12 teams): Arizona, UCLA, USC, Colorado, Wazzu, Oregon, Washington, and ASU. Only three (UCLA, Arizona, USC) made the tournament, none to the Elite 8. Three more made the NIT: Colorado, Oregon, and Wazzu. Two of them (Colorado and Oregon) lost their first round games to St. Bonaventure and Utah St, respectively. Wazzu made the NIT semifinals. Two (Arizona State and Washington) did not play in the postseason.
The bar that I keep seeing is that we should finish with a .500 or better record in conference every year. Only one school has done that all 8 seasons that Tinkle has been coaching here - Oregon. Two others have done it 7 of 8 years - UCLA and Arizona. Those three schools have men's basketball expenses (per data published in 2020 by the Dept. of Higher Education) that are at least 66% higher than OSU's.
What you are asking the next coach to do is CONSISTENTLY punch above their weight. CONSISTENTLY outperform teams with significant advantages that have nothing to do with coaching acumen. CONSISTENTLY do more with less.
It CAN happen, but WILL it? For my money, the odds are better that the next guy has similar results to the last half dozen coaches we've had here than they are that he sees markedly better results. And I understand that there will be a next guy. I'm just not in a hurry to do it until it makes financial sense.
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Post by alwaysorange on Mar 28, 2022 9:33:39 GMT -8
I heard if you count just last years elite 8 finish the beavs are perennial final 8 contestants.
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Post by rgeorge on Mar 28, 2022 9:41:20 GMT -8
I heard if you count just last years elite 8 finish the beavs are perennial final 8 contestants. And, of course "circle" nonsense of comparing him to past coaches deemed inferior and terrible, justifying being 42 games under .500, and of course this beauty: "Nobody is saying we CAN'T do better than Tinkle." Pretty much EXACTLY what the WT defenders say!
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Post by nabeav on Mar 28, 2022 10:00:08 GMT -8
Well the point remains the same.
Jimmy Andersen is seen as a bad head coach Eddie Payne is probably seen as the cream of the crop in terms of OSU coaches over the past 35 years, and he didn't have much success keeping his recruits here either. Ritchie McKay is maybe a good coach, but was not a good coach at OSU. Jay John was not a good coach Craig Robinson was not a good coach, but seems to be thought fonder of as time goes on. Tinkle is evidently a terrible coach too.
So six straight "bad" hires? Under several different athletic directors?
So is OSU: Exceptionally bad at identifying coaching talent? Extremely unlucky? Having trouble attracting a good coach?
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Post by rgeorge on Mar 28, 2022 10:35:23 GMT -8
This conversation has been going in circles for years now, but just to be clear: Nobody is saying we CAN'T do better than Tinkle. But I think it's pretty foolhardy to automatically think that we WILL do better. And of course we'd do better than 3-28. But will the next coach be better enough to make a change worth it? Will the next coach go to two NCAAs in seven years, something only half of the Pac-12 has done in the last seven? The next coach will almost assuredly have a better Pac-12 record, but having 2 seasons where you went a combined 2-36 have almost guaranteed that. But at Tinkle's current win percentage, the next coach would have to average between 7 and 8 conference wins a season to better it. So will the new coach be going 7-13 or 8-12 regularly? Maybe....but in most years Tinkle is at or better than that already. So if we want to see significant improvement over the course of the next coaches tenure, you're talking 9 to 10 conference wins a season. This season 8 teams in conference got 10 wins (a mark made easier because the bottom 3 teams (OSU, Utah, Cal) each had five or fewer wins, something that's only happened once since the conference went to 12 teams): Arizona, UCLA, USC, Colorado, Wazzu, Oregon, Washington, and ASU. Only three (UCLA, Arizona, USC) made the tournament, none to the Elite 8. Three more made the NIT: Colorado, Oregon, and Wazzu. Two of them (Colorado and Oregon) lost their first round games to St. Bonaventure and Utah St, respectively. Wazzu made the NIT semifinals. Two (Arizona State and Washington) did not play in the postseason. The bar that I keep seeing is that we should finish with a .500 or better record in conference every year. Only one school has done that all 8 seasons that Tinkle has been coaching here - Oregon. Two others have done it 7 of 8 years - UCLA and Arizona. Those three schools have men's basketball expenses (per data published in 2020 by the Dept. of Higher Education) that are at least 66% higher than OSU's. What you are asking the next coach to do is CONSISTENTLY punch above their weight. CONSISTENTLY outperform teams with significant advantages that have nothing to do with coaching acumen. CONSISTENTLY do more with less. It CAN happen, but WILL it? For my money, the odds are better that the next guy has similar results to the last half dozen coaches we've had here than they are that he sees markedly better results. And I understand that there will be a next guy. I'm just not in a hurry to do it until it makes financial sense. There are so many falsehoods in your post it is not even worth going through each. But WT averages about (6) Pac12 wins per, not 7 or 8. He averages 5 games under .500. Those seasons of 2-36 are his, they count, and most here would bet on the next coach coming close to that. Well, because in the 121 year history no one else has. The "odds are better" that the next coach(es) will not have 1 win Pac12 seasons, 3 wins overall. NO ONE on this board that I've read has stated, "The bar that I keep seeing is that we should finish with a .500 or better record in conference every year." What they say is we should never be 42 games under .500. OSU should be able to recruit better. That an OSU coach should be able to develop players, have team discipline, and show some semblance of consistency on the court. That OSU should not be the 10th winnest program over the last 8 seasons 53 wins vs WSU 46 and Cal 49. While WT has had his own program to develop and build with 3-5 years head start, some new hires have equalled or surpassed OSU: - Hopkins took over a devastated program coming off 2-16 and in 5 seasons has 10 more Pac12 wins that OSU; - Fox at Cal coming off 3-15, 2-16 and has only 3 less wins that WT over the last three seasons; - Smith at WSU took a program that had 22 total Pac12 wins in WT's first five seasons (35), and has (6) more these last three seasons; In WT's time at OSU every other Pac12 team has somehow had an 11 win or more conference season. "But I think it's pretty foolhardy to automatically think that we WILL do better"... actually pretty foolhardy to think WT, his recruiting, teams, etc will suddenly emerge from the bottom tier of the Pac12 after 8 seasons of inconsistency. While the others in the "tier" have indeed made coaching changes and for now surpassed OSU. They did so not because they were guaranteed of a more successful coach, but because they had enough information that in their programs' current state it was worth the risk to TRY an improve the program.
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Post by nabeav on Mar 28, 2022 10:56:41 GMT -8
You're right on the wins per season in conference. I screwed up the math there and left out a year. That's my bad, I'll correct it.
*Website won't let me correct it....apparently there's a time limit on editing posts.* But I was 100% incorrect to say he's averaged between 7-8 wins per season. It would've been better to say "he's had between 7 and 10 wins in 6 of 8 seasons."
But to say these schools have "surpassed" us seems a bit disingenuous. Everyone surpassed us this year. Let's see what happens next year. Like I said...if we aren't markedly better next year, I don't think you'll find one person on here advocating to keep Tinkle around.
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Post by treasurevalleybeav on Mar 28, 2022 12:52:05 GMT -8
My thoughts and serious concerns about Tinkle are as much (if not MORE) about the off the court player issues as they are about the horrendous w/d record last year. I think seastape articulated it the best for me when he posted this:
If it is true that there were several players acting up and defying the coaches and causing fights with other players, than Tinkle really blew it by letting it slide. That is a horrendous piece of coaching. I think of a coach as someone who teaches not only the sport but life lessons as well and Tinkle, if all this is true, failed miserably in that regard and the product on the floor reflected that failure.
If this isn't corrected and hopefully some sort of explanation provided, then I wouldn't be able to trust someone like that to move forward as the leader of any basketball program. Hopefully this happening when it did was merely a coincidence, being the first year there wasn't a coach's son playing for the team. I have no logical reason why all of the sudden players were allowed to do things like what was mentioned, along w/ skipping mandatory workouts w/o no consequences. No idea at all.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 28, 2022 13:43:40 GMT -8
My thoughts and serious concerns about Tinkle are as much (if not MORE) about the off the court player issues as they are about the horrendous w/d record last year. I think seastape articulated it the best for me when he posted this: If it is true that there were several players acting up and defying the coaches and causing fights with other players, than Tinkle really blew it by letting it slide. That is a horrendous piece of coaching. I think of a coach as someone who teaches not only the sport but life lessons as well and Tinkle, if all this is true, failed miserably in that regard and the product on the floor reflected that failure. If this isn't corrected and hopefully some sort of explanation provided, then I wouldn't be able to trust someone like that to move forward as the leader of any basketball program. Hopefully this happening when it did was merely a coincidence, being the first year there wasn't a coach's son playing for the team. I have no logical reason why all of the sudden players were allowed to do things like what was mentioned, along w/ skipping mandatory workouts w/o no consequences. No idea at all. At points in the season six players were out for personal- or injury-related reasons. There were no horses in the stable. There can be no consequences, when the consequences cannot be carried out, and the bad apples knew it.
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Post by beaver94 on Mar 28, 2022 14:46:19 GMT -8
My thoughts and serious concerns about Tinkle are as much (if not MORE) about the off the court player issues as they are about the horrendous w/d record last year. I think seastape articulated it the best for me when he posted this: If it is true that there were several players acting up and defying the coaches and causing fights with other players, than Tinkle really blew it by letting it slide. That is a horrendous piece of coaching. I think of a coach as someone who teaches not only the sport but life lessons as well and Tinkle, if all this is true, failed miserably in that regard and the product on the floor reflected that failure. If this isn't corrected and hopefully some sort of explanation provided, then I wouldn't be able to trust someone like that to move forward as the leader of any basketball program. Hopefully this happening when it did was merely a coincidence, being the first year there wasn't a coach's son playing for the team. I have no logical reason why all of the sudden players were allowed to do things like what was mentioned, along w/ skipping mandatory workouts w/o no consequences. No idea at all. At points in the season six players were out for personal- or injury-related reasons. There were no horses in the stable. There can be no consequences, when the consequences cannot be carried out, and the bad apples knew it. Not to mention, most of the worst information that's been reported here is 3rd or 4th hand information at best. We could all tell there were issues during the season, but until I hear something from a more reliable source I'm going to withhold leaping to the worst conclusions.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Mar 28, 2022 14:57:56 GMT -8
One of the problems with human nature is it only takes one or two "bad apples" to create more bad apples. Rot spreads.
Imagine a scenario where the program has been running along for several years as a fairly functional "family" and suddenly one or two toxic kids are thrown into the mix - that can ruin it for others. In any group of people you are likely to have some that are rock solid no matter what is thrown at them, others who might be affected by what's going on around them, and some who are going to be swayed by what's going on around them. People who might be normally happy and cooperative may become less so, some who might have been at risk for issues/bad habits/whatever might go over the edge and join in the dysfunction. It probably happens to a degree in every program every year, but it sounds as though this was as about as dysfunctional, as far as attitudes go, as this program has seen in a while. The rub is, how do you handle it? Does a coach start suspending kids, or try to work through it? Does a coach force a kid who's feigning injury to play? Does a coach just say screw it and we can deal with it between seasons and keep it out of the news during the season? Tough choices, and there will be critics, possibly loud ones, no matter which choice is made. Sounds to me like Tinkle may be one of the relatively silent kind that tries to deal with it out of the public eye during the season and deal with it between seasons. The same people who are complaining about Tinkle now would just as likely have been complaining even louder during the season if he'd suspended a couple of kids this season..."it's out of control" etc.
I suspect he handled it the way he thought was best at the time. The big question is, does it get fixed so the program can heal? That is yet to be seen. Hopefully this was not the future norm. In my book any kid who is prone to causing fights, they're toxic, and I hope if there are other toxic kids that shouldn't be here, they are gone soon.
Next year is another year. There were posters (on whatever board I was on at the time, can't remember which season this one started) after the 5 win season that said no way does Tinkle more than 8-10 games the next year and that a .500 season was basically impossible... I suspect NOBODY predicted a Final 8 appearance last year after Tres graduated... so who knows what next year will bring? Another year like this year and I expect him to be gone, another season where they are clearly not competitive and I expect him to be gone, but beyond that, who knows?
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Post by beaverinohio on Mar 28, 2022 18:37:29 GMT -8
Hunt now in portal too.
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Post by collegiate on Mar 28, 2022 18:46:16 GMT -8
No they can't! There's only 1 "free" portal transfer without sitting out a year. Unless you drop down a division. A player doesn't get unlimited portal transfers. Plus the free Covid year is gone. Yes, the portal will slow down going forward. I don’t understand the changing rules, but I trust and hope you are right. “Star” point guard for Miami (I think) was playing for his fourth team… wow.
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Post by OSUprof on Mar 28, 2022 18:46:44 GMT -8
So six straight "bad" hires? Under several different athletic directors? So is OSU: Exceptionally bad at identifying coaching talent? Extremely unlucky? Having trouble attracting a good coach? WSU is also chronically underfunded like OSU. MBB expenses at OSU is currently at $6.4 million while it is $6.8 million at WSU. That difference could be attributed to transportation expenses alone. Essentially WSU has the same small pot of money that OSU does.
Yet WSU has been able to hire Tony Bennett (9th best winning percentage among active coaches), and Kelvin Sampson (25th best winning percentage among active coaches) over the same time that we had six straight bad hires as you put it. WSU is not a basketball juggernaut but they were able to hire two of the current top coaches in Pullman.
I'm hearing that OSU cannot attract good coaches because of poor resources and a community not conducive to recruiting basketball players. Since I've lived in both towns there isn't much that anyone can tell me that I don't already know. And yes, I know about Bennett's dad.
This should help you answer the question.
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Post by beaver94 on Mar 28, 2022 19:02:44 GMT -8
So six straight "bad" hires? Under several different athletic directors? So is OSU: Exceptionally bad at identifying coaching talent? Extremely unlucky? Having trouble attracting a good coach? WSU is also chronically underfunded like OSU. MBB expenses at OSU is currently at $6.4 million while it is $6.8 million at WSU. That difference could be attributed to transportation expenses alone. Essentially WSU has the same small pot of money that OSU does.
Yet WSU has been able to hire Tony Bennett (9th best winning percentage among active coaches), and Kelvin Sampson (25th best winning percentage among active coaches) over the same time that we had six straight bad hires as you put it. WSU is not a basketball juggernaut but they were able to hire two of the current top coaches in Pullman.
I'm hearing that OSU cannot attract good coaches because of poor resources and a community not conducive to recruiting basketball players. Since I've lived in both towns there isn't much that anyone can tell me that I don't already know. And yes, I know about Bennett's dad.
This should help you answer the question.
So six straight "bad" hires? Under several different athletic directors? So is OSU: Exceptionally bad at identifying coaching talent? Extremely unlucky? Having trouble attracting a good coach? WSU is also chronically underfunded like OSU. MBB expenses at OSU is currently at $6.4 million while it is $6.8 million at WSU. That difference could be attributed to transportation expenses alone. Essentially WSU has the same small pot of money that OSU does.
Yet WSU has been able to hire Tony Bennett (9th best winning percentage among active coaches), and Kelvin Sampson (25th best winning percentage among active coaches) over the same time that we had six straight bad hires as you put it. WSU is not a basketball juggernaut but they were able to hire two of the current top coaches in Pullman.
I'm hearing that OSU cannot attract good coaches because of poor resources and a community not conducive to recruiting basketball players. Since I've lived in both towns there isn't much that anyone can tell me that I don't already know. And yes, I know about Bennett's dad.
This should help you answer the question.
You know Sampson is a cheater, right? Or, do you think he didn’t start until he got to Oklahoma?
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Post by alwaysorange on Mar 28, 2022 19:15:58 GMT -8
If you ain't cheating you ain't trying.
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