The inconvenient analysis - the bottom of the order

Oregon State opened the 2022 season with an offensive explosion that was heard around the college baseball world. The Beaver attack put up 56 runs in defeating New Mexico and Gonzaga twice in Arizona. They followed that with a 27 run output in sweeping a 3 game series with Xavier. Last weekend, OSU scored 18 runs in taking 2 of 3 from UC-Irvine in Corvallis. Through 10 games, the Beavers have scored 101 runs and posted a team batting average of .353. Their lofty slash line stands at .353/ .457/ .536, through 10 games. They have belted out 38 extra base hits, drawn 60 base on balls, been plunked 15 times and converted 13 of 17 steal attempts successfully. That’s a lot to like but the trend in offensive production has dipped from the 14 runs/game in the 4 game Classic, to 9 runs/game in 3 game series with Xavier, to 6 runs/ game in the Cal-Irvine series. Not facing Hughes in one of the Gonzaga games may have helped our cause and UCI showed the best overall pitching of the four teams we have faced. Gonzaga may have better starters than UCI, we just didn’t see all of them.

Most college coaches receive more enjoyment in breaking down their first 5 or 6 hitters in the order – not so much the bottom of the order. Unfortunately when the team is somewhat trending down, a statistical examination of your 7-8-9 hitters is a good place to start. That is where I have started with the Beavs. It is important to see some productive results in the 7-8-9 holes this season - the first 6 hitters are getting on base frequently. In my thinking, the first 4 games wouldn’t tell me anything. Every player 1 through 9 was producing at an incredible level. I threw those 4 games out and based my analysis on the Xavier and UCI series, the last 6 games we have played.

OSU used six hitters in the bottom of the batting order; Logan, Smith, Gretler, Dukart, Dernedde and Trosky. The combined slash line on those six players for the 6 games: .262/ .315/ .541. The 7-8-9 hitters have come to the plate with 61 runners on base, 37 of them in scoring position. Production from the bottom of the OSU is capitalizing on a golden opportunity. The run potential is very high. Interestingly over the last 6 games, one player skews the stats appreciably, take a look at the numbers without Tanner Smith. In determining how much he impacts the stats, the slash line minus Smith for the last 6 games becomes; .188/ .223/ .403.  With Smith, they become .242/ .277/ .533

In the last 6 games, individually the six players breakdown as follows;
Dernedde .222/ .409/ .588 2BB, 2HBP, 2K Runners On Base 14/ 10 in scoring position
Logan .200/ .333/ .267 2K, ROB 15/ SP 6
Trosky .000/ .000/ .000 1K, ROB 1/ SP 0
Dukart .400/ .500/ 1,000 1BB, 1K, ROB 5/ SP 2
Gretler .067/ .211/ .135 1BB, 5K, ROB 16/ SP 8
Smith .667/ .667/ 1,000 ROB 9/ SP 3
In 76 Plate appearances/ 61 AB – The 7-8-9 hitters have a combined 6BB and 11K.

For comparative purpose, those six players fare better when looking at all 10 games. The slash line then becomes; .286/ .360/ .462, individually they breakdown like this;
Smith 6-14, 3k, Slash .429/ .429/ .857
Trosky 2-6, 1K, Slash .333/ .333/ .333
Dukart 3-10, 2BB, 2K, Slash .300/ .417/ .600
Logan 8-28, 1BB, 4K, Slash .286/ .300/ .393
Gretler 7-28, 1BB+3 HBP, 8K, Slash .250/ .333/ .357
Dernedde 8-33, 4BB+2 HBP, 8K, Slash 242/ .359/ .424

CONCLUSION:

Statistically over the Xavier and UCI series (and over all 10 games for that matter), the most productive bottom of the order would be:
#7 Tanner Smith  C
#8 Jake Dukart  3B
#9 Kyle Dernedde  SS

Over the last 6 games, in 35 plate appearances, this group has 11 hits, 3BB, 2 HBP, 3 doubles, 1 triple and 3 home runs. Their combined slash line would be; .367/ .471/ .866 OPS is 1,337. That's productive.