War in Europe

Oil is pumped out of the ground and place into a pipeline (if there is a pipeline to put it in).  It is then refined and (usually) loaded onto trucks (if it was refined domestically).  If we are talking about North American oil, your gasoline prices can reflect crude oil prices from up to four weeks ago.  And if there is insufficient oil pipe infrastructure, that lag gets longer, while simultaneously increasing prices.  

If we are talking about oil from the Persian Gulf, the fastest transit time from derrick to gas pump is approximately eight weeks.  And that involves smaller ships beelining it through the Suez Canal.  To get it to the West Coast, that requires an extra week.  And, if it is shipped around the Cape of Good Hope in a bigger ship, that requires two more weeks.  (Only really a problem the United States East of the Cascades/Sierras.)

Thus, on the West Coast, Gulf oil prices can reflect up to an 8-week lag.  East Coast Gulf oil prices can reflect up to a 9-week lag.

Outside of the Persian Gulf, the next largest oil exporter to the United States was Russia.  (At least in the last 14 months.)  Russia supplied almost 20% of all non-North American oil to the United States and almost 25% of all United States oil not from North America or the Persian Gulf.  Without increased production from somewhere, that factors into availability, scarcity and the ultimate price that refiners have to pay that they have to pass on to you.  It also increases the lag times from derrick to gas pump.

So, as to why oil prices in the past 10 days not decreasing current gas prices, the answer is that they cannot possibly decrease gas prices that quickly.  You are currently seeing gas prices based on availability in February.   You are not going to see a drop in gas prices until at least April based on current oil price fluctuations and there can be fluctuations that keep oil prices high into May.

On top of that, demand is set to increase by at least June, because of normal annual usage and price pressures.  Crude prices can drop, but you still might not see it cause gas prices to decrease, if the demand increases like it is expected.

Yes... his wordy reply not only somewhat off base, but days late and $$$ short. In researching after an earlier response, local distributors are entirely responsible for the extreme escalations and slower drops at the pumps. The price for a gallon of gas is only about 53% from the cost of crude. Depending on the state, "supposed" transportation costs charged can vary from 5-10%, retail markup 10-15%, taxes 17-20%. It is estimated local distributors excessively charge for transport by at least 30%.

In any case I'm pretty sure gas prices over $4/gal (reg) are here to stay though 2022.

It is estimated by whom?  And why would it be "supposed" transportation costs?

Transportation costs are tied to energy costs.  Higher energy costs drive up transportation costs.  We have an inadequate pipeline network, which means relying more on trucks than we should.  Increases in the price of energy increase the price of transportation.  And increases in the price of transportation increase the price of energy.

I was promised there would be no math.

Or approximately the amount of oil consumed by the entire State of New York.

Or more than the combined amount of oil consumed by the States of Idaho, Oregon and Washington.

Or more than nine of the smaller states plus DC combined.

If Western numbers are correct about Russian casualties, it is not surprising that they are being pushed back in several areas.  If a certain percentage of casualties (dead/wounded/captured) are reached, combat units start to lose cohesion and morale.  Considering that perhaps half of the troops in Ukraine were ground troops/armored columns, and the rest things like artillery and logistics, they might have suffered 25%+ in casualties and given the structure of their ground units, that is enough to cause troops to lose their will to fight.  This was supposed to be a cakewalk, and its turned into a meat grinder.

Without a ton of build-up, it is very difficult to maintain more than about 11 weeks of momentum:

2003 Invasion of Iraq:                 27 days from Invasion to fall of Tikrit.  George Bush the Younger puts up the "Mission Accomplished" banner 16 days later.
2001 Invasion of Afghanistan:    49 days from Invasion to fall of Kandahar.  NATO spends another five days trying to kill or capture Taliban leadership to little avail.
1999 Invasion of Chechnya:       64 days from Invasion to Grozny being completely surrounded.  A 60-day siege followed, ending with Grozny as "the most destroyed city on Earth."
1991 Gulf War:                           41 days from Invasion to Liberation of Kuwait.  The ceasefire went into effect on the next day.
1990 Invasion of Panama:         14 days from Invasion to Manuel Noriega's capture.  American military remained for an additional four weeks before beginning to withdraw.
1983 Invasion of Grenada:          4 days from Invasion to eviction of the People's Revolutionary Government and Cubans and the reestablishment of democratic rule of Grenada.
Korean War:                               The Korean War was generally fought in 10-11 week increments of advance by one side or the other until the war devolved into a general stalemate.

I find it difficult to believe that Russia can maintain a sustained attack deep into May without the invasion devolving into a bunch of sieges.

If this thing is still going in April, I would like to see NATO set up aerial reconnaissance in Ukrainian airspace over each of the oblasts bordering a NATO member and the oblasts bordering those oblasts.