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Post by beaveroracle on Apr 26, 2020 11:49:44 GMT -8
With 54,573 confirmed deaths and 954,182 confirmed cases in the US as of today according to data from John Hopkins, the case fatality rate of 5.72% is clearly artificially high based upon our common understanding that far more than a million American either have or have had the virus. The scary part of the CFR calculation is that the CFR has continued to rise in this country despite the fact that the number of tests conducted in the US is now above 5 million. We simply haven't been able to test quickly enough in our country to lower the CFR based upon the number of people who are passing away each day. What should we assume in making the denominator assumption for the US in a CFR estimate? Should we assume that 20% or 66 million Americans have had or have the virus? It's hard to say what the actual CFR is. Expert estimates vary all over the place. Here is some information on the Princess cruise ship which is an interesting data point since everyone was tested: www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext"3711 passengers and crew were onboard, of whom 705 became sick and tested positive for COVID-19 and seven died, giving a CFR of 0.99%. If the passengers onboard were generally of an older age, the CFR in a healthy, younger population could be lower. Although highly transmissible, the CFR of COVID-19 appears to be lower than that of SARS (9.5%) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (34.4%), but higher than that of influenza (0.1%)." |
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Post by beavershoopsfan on Apr 26, 2020 11:53:43 GMT -8
Personally, I continue to believe there are reasons to be optimistic that we will have the pandemic under sufficient control to see a resumption of on-campus operations, including athletic competitions, by Fall. This article describes well what will need to be done in colleges: www.nytimes.com/2020/04/26/opinion/coronavirus-colleges-universities.html?smid=tw-shareIn a nutshell, test, trace, and separate. Once the pandemic is brought under reasonable Pcontrol, presumably by this summer, we do have the knowledge and the time to prepare to keep re-emergence under control. Leadership is the big question mark. Also, it seems pretty clear that the case fatality rate for Covid-19 has been over-estimated due to the substantial number of asymptomatic or mild symptom cases that do not get tested. In closed populations like the Princess cruise ship and certain prisons, where testing was thorough, there were high percentages of asymptomatic persons who had the virus. That is not to say I think Covid-19 is not a major concern. It is a very dangerous virus. Just not as dangerous, I believe, as many people originally estimated. There will be tremendous pressure to take reasonable steps back to toward normality. Hopefully, we do it right. That may require some sacrifice of individual liberties (e.g. mandatory contact tracing, mandatory wearing of masks in public to keep the reproduction number low, etc.). But the economic and societal pressures to re-engage normal operations will be strong and we have the tools and knowledge on how to do so. I appreciate the optimism provided above and the clear importance for colleges to return to normalcy ASAP or risk not being able to open again in the future. But please discuss further how the process of "test, trace, and separate" will allow for Fall sports to take place without an effective vaccine. Would love to see that occur, but how do you separate one positive athlete and not quarantine his/her entire team? |
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Post by beaveroracle on Apr 26, 2020 12:06:31 GMT -8
Personally, I continue to believe there are reasons to be optimistic that we will have the pandemic under sufficient control to see a resumption of on-campus operations, including athletic competitions, by Fall. This article describes well what will need to be done in colleges: www.nytimes.com/2020/04/26/opinion/coronavirus-colleges-universities.html?smid=tw-shareIn a nutshell, test, trace, and separate. Once the pandemic is brought under reasonable control, presumably by this summer, we do have the knowledge and the time to prepare to keep re-emergence under control. Leadership is the big question mark. Also, it seems pretty clear that the case fatality rate for Covid-19 has been over-estimated due to the substantial number of asymptomatic or mild symptom cases that do not get tested. In closed populations like the Princess cruise ship and certain prisons, where testing was thorough, there were high percentages of asymptomatic persons who had the virus. That is not to say I think Covid-19 is not a major concern. It is a very dangerous virus. Just not as dangerous, I believe, as many people originally estimated. There will be tremendous pressure to take reasonable steps back to toward normality. Hopefully, we do it right. That may require some sacrifice of individual liberties (e.g. mandatory contact tracing, mandatory wearing of masks in public to keep the reproduction number low, etc.). But the economic and societal pressures to re-engage normal operations will be strong and we have the tools and knowledge on how to do so. I appreciate the optimism provided above and the clear importance for colleges to return to normalcy ASAP or risk not being able to open again in the future. But please discuss further how the process of "test, trace, and isolate" will allow for Fall sports to take place without an effective vaccine. Would love to see that occur, but how do you isolate one positive athlete and not quarantine his/her entire team? I agree that is tricky. And it's much trickier for football than it is for basketball due to the much larger number of players. Nevertheless, I think it's possible. For basketball, it would seem quite feasible to quarantine the whole team if necessary. If the country as a whole is not successful in keeping re-emergence tamped down through strong test, trace, and isolate protocols, then college athletics may not be feasible. As I said, I'm optimistic we have the tools and a feasible approach. I'm far from positive, however. |
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billsaab
Freshman
Retired. Live in SW Washington on 73/4 Acres.
Posts: 589 
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Post by billsaab on Apr 26, 2020 14:37:18 GMT -8
I do not see a way for football and full Stadiums. We are going to have to isolate vulnerable people. I think the Media has created over fear but we must realize by now it will run its course and we will get some type of various prescriptions to make it safer for us. Time for all to work together.
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Post by sparty on Apr 26, 2020 17:31:23 GMT -8
I do not see a way for football and full Stadiums. We are going to have to isolate vulnerable people. I think the Media has created over fear but we must realize by now it will run its course and we will get some type of various prescriptions to make it safer for us. Time for all to work together. Football might go the way of the Dinosaur here. Gonzaga does not need football. They stopped it in WW2 and never resumed it. I don't think much tears would be shed if we concentrated just on basketball and baseball. |
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Post by beavershoopsfan on Apr 26, 2020 18:43:04 GMT -8
Without football in America, lots of college sports programs won't be able to survive. Gonzaga may not need football to help to fund other sports programs, but lots of P5 schools rely on the revenue that football pulls in to fund many of other sports. Schools with significant endowments will be able to weather the financial hit of a year or more without football and/or on-location schooling, but many public universities across the country will need to do significant belt-tightening to figure out how to survive in a COVID-19-plagued world.
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rafer
Sophomore
Posts: 1,635
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Post by rafer on Apr 26, 2020 19:00:11 GMT -8
I do not see a way for football and full Stadiums. We are going to have to isolate vulnerable people. I think the Media has created over fear but we must realize by now it will run its course and we will get some type of various prescriptions to make it safer for us. Time for all to work together. Football might go the way of the Dinosaur here. Gonzaga does not need football. They stopped it in WW2 and never resumed it. I don't think much tears would be shed if we concentrated just on basketball and baseball. Really!! Without FB, all other sports are gone the way of the gooney bird, unless your Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and U of Nike!! |
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Post by sparty on Apr 27, 2020 13:58:17 GMT -8
Football might go the way of the Dinosaur here. Gonzaga does not need football. They stopped it in WW2 and never resumed it. I don't think much tears would be shed if we concentrated just on basketball and baseball. Really!! Without FB, all other sports are gone the way of the gooney bird, unless your Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and U of Nike!! Then no sports until 2022 and you are right Phil will probably cover U of Nike. How many players will head for states that are now open. The transfer portal is going to light up like its the 4th of July for players that want to play next year. For picking up another point guard this is a disaster.
That will all factor in now.
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Post by 411500 on Apr 27, 2020 17:17:29 GMT -8
Those of you better at researching university sports funding help me out.
The last time I investigated football revenue in Pac-12 most schools spent more on football than football brought in - - making it a net fiscal loser.
If that's true how can football revenue fund other sports?
Does this sound right? Can anyone sort this out for me?
Thanks...
GO BEAVS !!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2020 18:15:39 GMT -8
I hate to be the bearer of good news, but some Oxford group has announced a vaccine that they'll start human trials on in May. The took another virus, genetically modified it to look like COVID, and injected it into 6 rhesus monkeys, then exposed them to large amounts of the COVID virus, and none got sick. Unvaccinated monkeys all got sick. Apparently, there's not much difference between a rhesus monkey and a human (something I've always believed), so they're confident this is going to work. They had a head start because they'd already proven the approach using the MERS virus last year. Could have millions of doses available by September. So I guess there's now a much better chance for school and sports to resume as early as January or in the spring if they can get a quick approval.
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Post by rmancarl on Apr 27, 2020 18:57:15 GMT -8
I have to say, despite that fact that there are still many naysayers, the news of the last few days sounds much more encouraging. I'm not sure what will happen at the college level, but signals seem to indicicate that major league sports will find a way back sooner than some of us expected. WE'll see. I'm a fan of college sports, and I'm not sure there is a clear path at the college level, although they may be able to piggy back on the ideas and plans of professional sports.
I could see part of the problem being the number that don't want to open up colleges or college sports, and how hard they want to fight against it.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Apr 27, 2020 19:27:22 GMT -8
Those of you better at researching university sports funding help me out. The last time I investigated football revenue in Pac-12 most schools spent more on football than football brought in - - making it a net fiscal loser. If that's true how can football revenue fund other sports? Does this sound right? Can anyone sort this out for me? Thanks... GO BEAVS !! Not sure where you got that info, but it is wrong, wrong, wrong. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2020 19:41:41 GMT -8
I hate to be the bearer of good news, but some Oxford group has announced a vaccine that they'll start human trials on in May. The took another virus, genetically modified it to look like COVID, and injected it into 6 rhesus monkeys, then exposed them to large amounts of the COVID virus, and none got sick. Unvaccinated monkeys all got sick. Apparently, there's not much difference between a rhesus monkey and a human (something I've always believed), so they're confident this is going to work. They had a head start because they'd already proven the approach using the MERS virus last year. Could have millions of doses available by September. So I guess there's now a much better chance for school and sports to resume as early as January or in the spring if they can get a quick approval. From the NY Times: Immunity in monkeys doesn’t guarantee that a vaccine will protect people, but it’s an encouraging sign. If the May trials go well and regulators grant emergency approval, the Oxford scientists say they could have a few million doses of their vaccine available by September — months ahead of other vaccine projects.
“It is a very, very fast clinical program,” said Emilio Emini of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, which is helping to finance a number of competing efforts. |
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Post by pitbeavs on Apr 27, 2020 20:15:03 GMT -8
I hate to be the bearer of good news, but some Oxford group has announced a vaccine that they'll start human trials on in May. The took another virus, genetically modified it to look like COVID, and injected it into 6 rhesus monkeys, then exposed them to large amounts of the COVID virus, and none got sick. Unvaccinated monkeys all got sick. Apparently, there's not much difference between a rhesus monkey and a human (something I've always believed), so they're confident this is going to work. They had a head start because they'd already proven the approach using the MERS virus last year. Could have millions of doses available by September. So I guess there's now a much better chance for school and sports to resume as early as January or in the spring if they can get a quick approval. But the trials will take 6-9 months. No one wants a repeat of the 1977 Swine Flu debacle. |
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Post by newduke2 on Apr 27, 2020 20:55:24 GMT -8
I hate to be the bearer of good news, but some Oxford group has announced a vaccine that they'll start human trials on in May. The took another virus, genetically modified it to look like COVID, and injected it into 6 rhesus monkeys, then exposed them to large amounts of the COVID virus, and none got sick. Unvaccinated monkeys all got sick. Apparently, there's not much difference between a rhesus monkey and a human (something I've always believed), so they're confident this is going to work. They had a head start because they'd already proven the approach using the MERS virus last year. Could have millions of doses available by September. So I guess there's now a much better chance for school and sports to resume as early as January or in the spring if they can get a quick approval. Humans share 60% of their genetics with fruit flies, chickens, and BANANAS! Humans share 80% of their genetics with cows Humans share 85% of their genetics with mice Humans share 90% of their genetics with cats (just ask Taylor Swift) Humans share 96% of their genetics with Chimpanzees Humans share 99.9% of their genetics with other humans Who needs monkeys to test the vaccine on. Bananas may work just fine. |
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