Post by atownbeaver on Feb 14, 2020 12:55:13 GMT -8
Just feels like we've already shot ourselves in the foot too many times this year. WSU, Utah (so far we're their only conference win, and they haven't looked good in any of their losses), ASU, and A&M (still a WTF game for me) are all head scratchers and we were essentially out of all of those games with 10-15 minutes+ to go. Just win one or two of those and the entire perspective of the season changes. I would say 3-1 or 4-1 in the next 4-5 games is needed at a minimum to get back in the NCAA conversation. At least WT teams tend to play uo well, especially at home.
To put it another way, I tend to look at 9-9 as "par" in basketball. Currently, Oregon State is at par. 1-1 at home and 1-3 on the road. The Beavers need to get to -2, in order to get any at large consideration. That is two road wins and holding serve at home. That is doable. Whether it is done remains to be seen.
I tend to agree that 4-1 is going to be an almost necessity, if Oregon State is going to climb back into the conversation. Otherwise, the Beavers are going to have to pull of a huge road win.
I never assumed we'd land at where we are at, with the games we have played. We basically have to be 6-0 from here to get there. but it is mathematically do-able. And arguably if we did that, we would have a pretty strong case. we'd be 4-0 against AP top 25 teams... believe it or not, despite being 15-9 and 5-7 in conference play, we are 2-0 against AP top 25 officially.
All I know, is if we beat Colorado this weekend, move to 16-9, 6-7 and have 3 top 25 wins under our belt, I think we can put the NCAA tourney back on the table in a serious conversation. I think even a 5-1 finish (say we drop Oregon on the road) with a 3-1 top 25 record, a 20-10 and 10-8 conference record, might just do it for us this year, and get us in as the 5 or 6 team in the Pac. The landscape nationally is really weird this year. a lot of historically good teams are not good. it is kind of an overall odd year.
But, just same, lose this weekend I think our flame snuffs out. we are 3-1 after a miserable 4 game losing streak with a quality win over Stanford on the road, taking out ranked Oregon at home and a dominate win over Utah. maybe this team is renewed and ready to finish strong? lets hope so.