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Post by beaversproud on Jan 13, 2020 16:20:18 GMT -8
best way to get in... win the conference tourney
if not then... the conference regular season
if you want to push your luck... top 4?
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Jan 20, 2020 11:18:21 GMT -8
Down to #67 in the most recent NET rankings. Jumped by UW, ASU, and USC this week.
Other rankings: #11 Arizona #14 Stanford #16 uo #21 Colorado #46 USC #47 UW #53 Okalahoma #62 ASU #80 Utah #82 Iowa State #100 WSU #138 UCLA #146 Texas A&M #165 California
Racking up too many "bad losses". Can't afford another one to UCLA this week. Really need a sweep this week to have a chance at the NCAAs it feels like.
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Post by baseba1111 on Jan 20, 2020 13:07:45 GMT -8
Down to #67 in the most recent NET rankings. Jumped by UW, ASU, and USC this week. Other rankings: #11 Arizona #14 Stanford #16 uo #21 Colorado #46 USC #47 UW #53 Okalahoma #62 ASU #80 Utah #82 Iowa State #100 WSU #138 UCLA #146 Texas A&M #165 California Racking up too many "bad losses". Can't afford another one to UCLA this week. Really need a sweep this week to have a chance at the NCAAs it feels like. Losing at home to a UCLA team that seems to shoot high 30/low 40% every game would be a big blow. They look terrible at times. Scoring 60 vs them seems to be almost a sure win.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jan 20, 2020 21:23:59 GMT -8
Down to #67 in the most recent NET rankings. Jumped by UW, ASU, and USC this week. Other rankings: #11 Arizona #14 Stanford #16 uo #21 Colorado #46 USC #47 UW #53 Okalahoma #62 ASU #80 Utah #82 Iowa State #100 WSU #138 UCLA #146 Texas A&M #165 California Racking up too many "bad losses". Can't afford another one to UCLA this week. Really need a sweep this week to have a chance at the NCAAs it feels like. 10-2 to end it makes me feel great about Oregon State's chances. I think that there is a question about whether 9-3 is truly enough, but it will probably be good enough. Games ranked from easiest to hardest: California UCLA Utah @ California USC Colorado Stanford Oregon @ Arizona State ----------------------------- @ Stanford @ Oregon @ Arizona Oregon State has to win the games above the line. If Oregon State loses games above the line, it has to win the games below the line. If the Beavers can upset teams below the line, the line moves up. I would tend to agree that sweeping the Los Angeles schools is necessary, unless Oregon State can beat Arizona, Oregon, or Stanford on the road.
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Post by babeav on Jan 20, 2020 22:23:24 GMT -8
So you’re saying there’s no chance.
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Jan 21, 2020 8:27:41 GMT -8
Down to #67 in the most recent NET rankings. Jumped by UW, ASU, and USC this week. Other rankings: #11 Arizona #14 Stanford #16 uo #21 Colorado #46 USC #47 UW #53 Okalahoma #62 ASU #80 Utah #82 Iowa State #100 WSU #138 UCLA #146 Texas A&M #165 California Racking up too many "bad losses". Can't afford another one to UCLA this week. Really need a sweep this week to have a chance at the NCAAs it feels like. 10-2 to end it makes me feel great about Oregon State's chances. I think that there is a question about whether 9-3 is truly enough, but it will probably be good enough. Games ranked from easiest to hardest: California UCLA Utah @ California USC Colorado Stanford Oregon @ Arizona State ----------------------------- @ Stanford @ Oregon @ Arizona Oregon State has to win the games above the line. If Oregon State loses games above the line, it has to win the games below the line. If the Beavers can upset teams below the line, the line moves up. I would tend to agree that sweeping the Los Angeles schools is necessary, unless Oregon State can beat Arizona, Oregon, or Stanford on the road. Just feels like we've already shot ourselves in the foot too many times this year. WSU, Utah (so far we're their only conference win, and they haven't looked good in any of their losses), ASU, and A&M (still a WTF game for me) are all head scratchers and we were essentially out of all of those games with 10-15 minutes+ to go. Just win one or two of those and the entire perspective of the season changes. I would say 3-1 or 4-1 in the next 4-5 games is needed at a minimum to get back in the NCAA conversation. At least WT teams tend to play uo well, especially at home.
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Post by irimi on Jan 21, 2020 8:43:12 GMT -8
Down to #67 in the most recent NET rankings. Jumped by UW, ASU, and USC this week. Other rankings: #11 Arizona #14 Stanford #16 uo #21 Colorado #46 USC #47 UW #53 Okalahoma #62 ASU #80 Utah #82 Iowa State #100 WSU #138 UCLA #146 Texas A&M #165 California Racking up too many "bad losses". Can't afford another one to UCLA this week. Really need a sweep this week to have a chance at the NCAAs it feels like. Hard to believe WSU is ranked #100 after the week they had.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jan 21, 2020 11:54:59 GMT -8
10-2 to end it makes me feel great about Oregon State's chances. I think that there is a question about whether 9-3 is truly enough, but it will probably be good enough. Games ranked from easiest to hardest: California UCLA Utah @ California USC Colorado Stanford Oregon @ Arizona State ----------------------------- @ Stanford @ Oregon @ Arizona Oregon State has to win the games above the line. If Oregon State loses games above the line, it has to win the games below the line. If the Beavers can upset teams below the line, the line moves up. I would tend to agree that sweeping the Los Angeles schools is necessary, unless Oregon State can beat Arizona, Oregon, or Stanford on the road. Just feels like we've already shot ourselves in the foot too many times this year. WSU, Utah (so far we're their only conference win, and they haven't looked good in any of their losses), ASU, and A&M (still a WTF game for me) are all head scratchers and we were essentially out of all of those games with 10-15 minutes+ to go. Just win one or two of those and the entire perspective of the season changes. I would say 3-1 or 4-1 in the next 4-5 games is needed at a minimum to get back in the NCAA conversation. At least WT teams tend to play uo well, especially at home. Someone (ATown, maybe?) pointed out that Oregon State's conference schedule is somewhat front-loaded. The Beavers can get to 11-7, 21-9 by winning every remaining game in Oregon and then pulling out a road win over Arizona State or California. To put it another way, I tend to look at 9-9 as "par" in basketball. Currently, Oregon State is at par. 1-1 at home and 1-3 on the road. The Beavers need to get to -2, in order to get any at large consideration. That is two road wins and holding serve at home. That is doable. Whether it is done remains to be seen. I tend to agree that 4-1 is going to be an almost necessity, if Oregon State is going to climb back into the conversation. Otherwise, the Beavers are going to have to pull of a huge road win.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Jan 21, 2020 14:27:08 GMT -8
Just feels like we've already shot ourselves in the foot too many times this year. WSU, Utah (so far we're their only conference win, and they haven't looked good in any of their losses), ASU, and A&M (still a WTF game for me) are all head scratchers and we were essentially out of all of those games with 10-15 minutes+ to go. Just win one or two of those and the entire perspective of the season changes. I would say 3-1 or 4-1 in the next 4-5 games is needed at a minimum to get back in the NCAA conversation. At least WT teams tend to play uo well, especially at home. How often do teams look good in their losses? I'd probably recommend looking at their wins and seeing what they are capable of doing. If their only good games are us that would be bad, otherwise I'm thinking just about any team in the league could beat any other team in this league on a good day.
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Jan 21, 2020 14:32:53 GMT -8
Just feels like we've already shot ourselves in the foot too many times this year. WSU, Utah (so far we're their only conference win, and they haven't looked good in any of their losses), ASU, and A&M (still a WTF game for me) are all head scratchers and we were essentially out of all of those games with 10-15 minutes+ to go. Just win one or two of those and the entire perspective of the season changes. I would say 3-1 or 4-1 in the next 4-5 games is needed at a minimum to get back in the NCAA conversation. At least WT teams tend to play uo well, especially at home. How often do teams look good in their losses? I'd probably recommend looking at their wins and seeing what they are capable of doing. If their only good games are us that would be bad, otherwise I'm thinking just about any team in the league could beat any other team in this league on a good day. I was just referring to their play since the conference season has started. I know they beat UK but outside of that they have not been playing good basketball in the last month at all, losing by 21.4 points on average. Even though four of those games came against teams currently ranked in the AP poll, their NET has fallen down to 80 and they are well outside the NCAA bubble right now. Maybe their tough recent schedule is the reason for that, maybe not, but other than A&M I don't think anyone can say that wasn't the worst game of our season so far and a game we should have won or been more competitive in.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Feb 13, 2020 15:40:44 GMT -8
Agree that it probably doesn't hurt UW all that much. It may affect our SOS somewhat though and with how our non-conference SOS is shaking out those kind of games may hurt us and keep us out of the tournament if the PAC can't show that it deserves 5-7 teams in the tournament this year. Every little result matters at this point including our opponent's opponents. It sucks that it has to be like that but that's just the way it is when you aren't a perennial tournament team and you drop games like that game @a&M. The good news is that we only play the Washington schools once this year so we avoid the SOS poison WSU and only playing Udub once probably makes that result less significant than say UA losing to St. John's. It is going to take a MINIMUM 10-8 conference record at this point IMO plus a tourney win or 2 (or 3, or 4 heaven forbid) to have a chance. The hole we've dug ourselves in is our own making and the AD's making from a scheduling perspective. On a somewhat related note, how did we possibly fulfill the new Pac-12 rule for OOC scheduling of averaging a NET ranking of 175 or better in our non-conference opponents. I know it's from last year's squads but our schedule this year can't possibly fulfill that does it? And if it does it would have to be super close? Paging Wilky or anyone else who may know on this one. Two points. First, the easy one. The non-conference rules do not come into play until next year. Second, the rules apply to the prior NETs, not the current NET. 2018-19: Cal State Northridge 273 Iowa State 21 Oklahoma 37 Wyoming 321 UC Santa Barbara 164 Grambling 293 San Jose State 341 Portland State 268 Arkansas- Pine Bluff 323 UTSA 141 Texas A&M 84 North Dakota 285 Average: 213
2019-20:
Cal State Northridge 275 Iowa State 69 Oklahoma 43 Wyoming 299 UC Santa Barbara 164 Grambling 290 San Jose State 285 Portland State 178 Arkansas- Pine Bluff 346 UTSA 252 Texas A&M 205 North Dakota 212 Average: 218
The SOS was not expected to be good and would not past muster next year, but it was still not expected to be this bad. Most teams are worse this year than last, which is bad, because most of the teams on the schedule were not that great last year.It has been seven weeks since I updated them, so I thought that I would see where we are at. Current 2019-20 Net Rankings: Cal State Northridge 225 (+50) Iowa State 79 (-10) Oklahoma 45 (-2)Wyoming 292 (+7) UC Santa Barbara 171 (-7) Grambling 306 (-16)San Jose State 275 (+10) Portland State 182 (-4) Arkansas- Pine Bluff 346 (NC)UTSA 199 (+53)Texas A&M 142 (+63)North Dakota 244 (-32)Average: 209 (+9)
A&M is the big mover. The Aggies are tied with Alabama in 8th place in the SEC. A&M's big win over the past seven weeks was a 63-58 win in Knoxville over Tennessee (#63 NET). Otherwise, the Aggies have mostly been feasting on SEC dregs. A&M plays Georgia (#98 NET) next and then finishes with six games against teams with a sub-50 NET. There are some chances for a big Aggie upset over the next 3 1/2 weeks. Seven weeks ago, the non-conference schedule looked very bad, and it still looks bad. However, it is trending in the right direction, at least according to the NET.
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Feb 14, 2020 10:19:51 GMT -8
Updated NET: Beavs up to #64 from #69
#9 UA #17 Colorado #25 uo #33 Stanford #49 ASU #50 USC #63 UW #78 Utah #103 UCLA #107 WSU #155 California
Others of note: #45 Oklahoma #79 Iowa State #141 Texas A&M
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Post by beaverinohio on Feb 14, 2020 10:25:56 GMT -8
Updated NET: Beavs up to #64 from #69 #9 UA #17 Colorado #25 uo #33 Stanford #49 ASU #50 USC #63 UW #78 Utah #103 UCLA #107 WSU #155 California Others of note: #45 Oklahoma #79 Iowa State #141 Texas A&M Hopefully Iowa St. losing PG for season doesn’t send their NET into free fall.
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Post by beaverbeliever71 on Feb 14, 2020 10:31:56 GMT -8
Updated NET: Beavs up to #64 from #69 #9 UA #17 Colorado #25 uo #33 Stanford #49 ASU #50 USC #63 UW #78 Utah #103 UCLA #107 WSU #155 California Others of note: #45 Oklahoma #79 Iowa State #141 Texas A&M OSU could move up pretty good considering that their next 5 games are vs the current #17, #9, #49, #25 and #33 teams in the NET Rankings.. 3 of those being road games.
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Feb 14, 2020 10:33:46 GMT -8
Updated NET: Beavs up to #64 from #69 #9 UA #17 Colorado #25 uo #33 Stanford #49 ASU #50 USC #63 UW #78 Utah #103 UCLA #107 WSU #155 California Others of note: #45 Oklahoma #79 Iowa State #141 Texas A&M Hopefully Iowa St. losing PG for season doesn’t send their NET into free fall. Halliburton is a stud. That's a big loss for them certainly. I THINK the NET takes injuries into account? But I could be wrong, I thought I saw something last year that said it took key player injuries into account with its calculation but can't be sure. Also FWIW, Joe Lunardi currently has six Pac-12 teams in the tournament tied for 2nd most among conferences, with ASU and Stanford both being in the first four and USC as a 10 seed. That would suggest to me there is still an outside chance of an at-large bid.
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