|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 19, 2019 13:48:53 GMT -8
It appears that most of Oregon State's drop is because UTSA's NET was so low. However, Oregon State also seemed to slip based on what the Beavers' former opponents did, as well.
The NET shows the Pac-12 as a six-bid conference at this point with Oregon State #6. St. Mary's knocked Arizona State down 23 spots and likely out of the Tournament, if the Tournament tipped off today. #45 last year was Washington, which got in as a nine-seed.
Oregon State's NET SOS was 312th, heading down to Houston. That has fallen to 338th.
Duquesne and Liberty now each have a better SOS than Oregon State.
The Beavers' SOS likely dips win or lose against Texas A&M and North Dakota. Oregon State's next big chance to make a statement will probably be in Salt Lake City in the new year.
|
|
|
|
Post by beavsinorange on Dec 19, 2019 13:55:47 GMT -8
45 is still good, and we have many opportunities to increase that number in Pac 12 play. Need to win in College Station and beat North Dakota first. I feel like these next two games are the most important OOC games because they could damage us exponentially if we lose. Really need to focus and play to our potential these next two and we will be fine.
|
|
|
|
Post by atownbeaver on Dec 19, 2019 15:29:03 GMT -8
It appears that most of Oregon State's drop is because UTSA's NET was so low. However, Oregon State also seemed to slip based on what the Beavers' former opponents did, as well. The NET shows the Pac-12 as a six-bid conference at this point with Oregon State #6. St. Mary's knocked Arizona State down 23 spots and likely out of the Tournament, if the Tournament tipped off today. #45 last year was Washington, which got in as a nine-seed. Oregon State's NET SOS was 312th, heading down to Houston. That has fallen to 338th. Duquesne and Liberty now each have a better SOS than Oregon State. The Beavers' SOS likely dips win or lose against Texas A&M and North Dakota. Oregon State's next big chance to make a statement will probably be in Salt Lake City in the new year. You can only play who is on your schedule. Texas A&M was considered an early test a few weeks back, is not looking like not so much a test, but a dangerous trap if we lose this game that now looks like we should win handily. It is a bad spot for us. we should win, and need to and it will not help us. If we lose. oof. This year our Pac-12 performance matters heavily (not that it ever doesn't). The Pac-12 could very well send 5 or even 6, but I can't see the 5 or 6 making it with a losing pac record. I think we have to target 10-8 as a requirement. 9-9 or below NEEDS a strong OOC performance and record to justify. We ain't got the SOS side of things. |
|
|
|
Post by beaverinohio on Dec 19, 2019 16:51:25 GMT -8
45 is still good, and we have many opportunities to increase that number in Pac 12 play. Need to win in College Station and beat North Dakota first. I feel like these next two games are the most important OOC games because they could damage us exponentially if we lose. Really need to focus and play to our potential these next two and we will be fine. Can’t imagine even with wins next two that Beavers’ NET ranking is higher than at best 50. But like you said will be a NET killer if they lose one. Anyone know how closely tourney selection committee adhered to NET rankings last year when choosing at large teams? |
|
|
|
Post by beavsinorange on Dec 19, 2019 18:22:34 GMT -8
45 is still good, and we have many opportunities to increase that number in Pac 12 play. Need to win in College Station and beat North Dakota first. I feel like these next two games are the most important OOC games because they could damage us exponentially if we lose. Really need to focus and play to our potential these next two and we will be fine. Can’t imagine even with wins next two that Beavers’ NET ranking is higher than at best 50. But like you said will be a NET killer if they lose one. Anyone know how closely tourney selection committee adhered to NET rankings last year when choosing at large teams? I think you're right even if we win the next two our NET ranking will drop. However I thought I read somewhere that a road win is worth more than a home win so winning at A&M may or may not drop us too much. However if we dominate the next two games will help. Also helps that Seton Hall beat No 7 Maryland tonight. Remember, Iowa St beat Seton Hall so hopefully that helps us, which I think it will. I don't claim to be an expert on net rankings but I do think Seton Halls win helps us. Is that true Wilky? |
|
|
|
Post by baseba1111 on Dec 19, 2019 18:27:25 GMT -8
Portland St is our indirect impact game tonight. Current live RPI 116.
PSU win RPI up to 113.
PSU loss RPI down to 119.
As of now predicted 22-8/11-7 tie for 4th with Utah. Ending RPI 54, 6th in Pac12.
|
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 19, 2019 20:36:03 GMT -8
Portland St is our indirect impact game tonight. Current live RPI 116. PSU win RPI up to 113. PSU loss RPI down to 119. As of now predicted 22-8/11-7 tie for 4th with Utah. Ending RPI 54, 6th in Pac12. If you used Warren Nolan, it had Oregon State with the tiebreaker over Utah. If that held up, Oregon State would get the California-Utah winner. In that scenario, you have to figure that, if the Utes beat the Bears, the Oregon State-Utah winner is dancing and the loser is in the NIT, absent the winner just looking awful in the semifinal game. With the NET, how you win, to an extent, is just as important as winning, so take the foregoing with a grain of salt. |
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 19, 2019 20:43:33 GMT -8
Can’t imagine even with wins next two that Beavers’ NET ranking is higher than at best 50. But like you said will be a NET killer if they lose one. Anyone know how closely tourney selection committee adhered to NET rankings last year when choosing at large teams? I think you're right even if we win the next two our NET ranking will drop. However I thought I read somewhere that a road win is worth more than a home win so winning at A&M may or may not drop us too much. However if we dominate the next two games will help. Also helps that Seton Hall beat No 7 Maryland tonight. Remember, Iowa St beat Seton Hall so hopefully that helps us, which I think it will. I don't claim to be an expert on net rankings but I do think Seton Halls win helps us. Is that true Wilky? Yes, Seton Hall's win helps Oregon State. Seton Hall actually played Iowa State twice, splitting with the Cyclones. Also, Seton Hall helps us in the future, because they lost to Oregon. That is a good win for both Oregon State's NET and RPI. A road win is worth more than a home win, but Texas A&M is so bad that it should tank Oregon State's current NET win or lose. The Aggies may have some wins down the line that help, though. |
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 20, 2019 12:36:31 GMT -8
Oregon State up to #43 in the most recent NET.
That appears to be primarily related to Portland State's 10-point road win over Loyola-Marymount, which jumped Portland State up 21 spots today.
Seton Hall's 52-48 home win over Maryland actually pushed the Pirates up 18 spots and past the Beavers. Maryland fell six spots with the loss.
11. Stanford
13. Oregon (It would appear that Seton Hall's win pushed Oregon past Arizona.)
14. Arizona
28. Colorado
33. Washington
43. Oregon State
52. Arizona State
60. Utah
77. USC
131. Washington State
163. UCLA
166. California
If the season ended today, the Pac-12 looks like a six-bid conference to me with Oregon State in. The Beavers need to get to at least 23 wins on the season, though, unless the Beavers' previous opponents play out of their minds going forward. (Or unless the Beavers' NET keeps staying so far ahead of their RPI.) Ken Pomeroy is less kind to the Pac-12, and RPI is even less kind.
The big game for SOS today is Southern vs. UC Santa Barbara in the Thunderdome. A big Gaucho win would give the NET a boost heading into College Station tomorrow.
|
|
bill82
Freshman
OSU's 10,157th Best Donor
Posts: 968 
|
Post by bill82 on Dec 25, 2019 5:25:45 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 26, 2019 12:37:16 GMT -8
12. Stanford 14. Oregon 19. Arizona 27. Colorado 38. Washington 54. Arizona State 64. Utah 76. USC 80. Oregon State 126. Washington State 162. UCLA 166. California Washington's loss to Houston on Christmas is going to sting going forward......... |
|
|
|
Post by aicandme on Dec 26, 2019 13:22:06 GMT -8
12. Stanford 14. Oregon 19. Arizona 27. Colorado 38. Washington 54. Arizona State 64. Utah 76. USC 80. Oregon State 126. Washington State 162. UCLA 166. California Washington's home loss to Houston on Christmas is going to sting going forward......... How so? UW lost a neutral site game to a probable tournament team. As of yesterday, UW is 38 and UH 39 in the NET rankings. Doubt it hurts they're tournament chances much as they'll be top 3 in the league. |
|
|
|
Post by osubeaver2018 on Dec 26, 2019 13:52:32 GMT -8
12. Stanford 14. Oregon 19. Arizona 27. Colorado 38. Washington 54. Arizona State 64. Utah 76. USC 80. Oregon State 126. Washington State 162. UCLA 166. California Washington's home loss to Houston on Christmas is going to sting going forward......... How so? UW lost a neutral site game to a probable tournament team. As of yesterday, UW is 38 and UH 39 in the NET rankings. Doubt it hurts they're tournament chances much as they'll be top 3 in the league. Agree that it probably doesn't hurt UW all that much. It may affect our SOS somewhat though and with how our non-conference SOS is shaking out those kind of games may hurt us and keep us out of the tournament if the PAC can't show that it deserves 5-7 teams in the tournament this year. Every little result matters at this point including our opponent's opponents. It sucks that it has to be like that but that's just the way it is when you aren't a perennial tournament team and you drop games like that game @a&M. The good news is that we only play the Washington schools once this year so we avoid the SOS poison WSU and only playing Udub once probably makes that result less significant than say UA losing to St. John's. It is going to take a MINIMUM 10-8 conference record at this point IMO plus a tourney win or 2 (or 3, or 4 heaven forbid) to have a chance. The hole we've dug ourselves in is our own making and the AD's making from a scheduling perspective. On a somewhat related note, how did we possibly fulfill the new Pac-12 rule for OOC scheduling of averaging a NET ranking of 175 or better in our non-conference opponents. I know it's from last year's squads but our schedule this year can't possibly fulfill that does it? And if it does it would have to be super close? Paging Wilky or anyone else who may know on this one. |
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 26, 2019 16:01:36 GMT -8
How so? UW lost a neutral site game to a probable tournament team. As of yesterday, UW is 38 and UH 39 in the NET rankings. Doubt it hurts they're tournament chances much as they'll be top 3 in the league. Agree that it probably doesn't hurt UW all that much. It may affect our SOS somewhat though and with how our non-conference SOS is shaking out those kind of games may hurt us and keep us out of the tournament if the PAC can't show that it deserves 5-7 teams in the tournament this year. Every little result matters at this point including our opponent's opponents. It sucks that it has to be like that but that's just the way it is when you aren't a perennial tournament team and you drop games like that game @a&M. The good news is that we only play the Washington schools once this year so we avoid the SOS poison WSU and only playing Udub once probably makes that result less significant than say UA losing to St. John's. It is going to take a MINIMUM 10-8 conference record at this point IMO plus a tourney win or 2 (or 3, or 4 heaven forbid) to have a chance. The hole we've dug ourselves in is our own making and the AD's making from a scheduling perspective. On a somewhat related note, how did we possibly fulfill the new Pac-12 rule for OOC scheduling of averaging a NET ranking of 175 or better in our non-conference opponents. I know it's from last year's squads but our schedule this year can't possibly fulfill that does it? And if it does it would have to be super close? Paging Wilky or anyone else who may know on this one. Two points. First, the easy one. The non-conference rules do not come into play until next year. Second, the rules apply to the prior NETs, not the current NET. 2018-19: Cal State Northridge 273
Iowa State 21
Oklahoma 37
Wyoming 321
UC Santa Barbara 164
Grambling 293
San Jose State 341
Portland State 268
Arkansas- Pine Bluff 323
UTSA 141
Texas A&M 84
North Dakota 285
Average: 213
2019-20:
Cal State Northridge 275
Iowa State 69
Oklahoma 43
Wyoming 299
UC Santa Barbara 164
Grambling 290
San Jose State 285
Portland State 178
Arkansas- Pine Bluff 346
UTSA 252
Texas A&M 205
North Dakota 212
Average: 218
The SOS was not expected to be good and would not past muster next year, but it was still not expected to be this bad. Most teams are worse this year than last, which is bad, because most of the teams on the schedule were not that great last year. |
|
|
|
Post by ee1990 on Dec 26, 2019 20:26:12 GMT -8
RPI should never, ever be used. The way it props up the mid majors makes it a farce.
|
|
