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Post by wizardofhogz on Jun 26, 2018 10:35:28 GMT -8
Maybe OSU’s stats are inflated because they can’t play against the best team in the country.
Well, they're getting their chance at that the next couple of days.
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Post by wizardofhogz on Jun 26, 2018 10:58:19 GMT -8
Really should compare non-conference SOS:Beavers: 24-1, RPI #1, SOS #15 Ark: 19-5, RPI #13, SOS #28 Beavers played a stronger non-conference schedule and won more non-conference games... The overall SOS of Ark is high due to the inflated SEC rankings, not 'level of competition'... Well, I don't see any CWS teams among those that you played in NC games during the regular season. Arkansas played Texas Tech and Texas in NC midweek games. The Hogs also played a 3 game series against USC, normally a power team (but not so much this year). Moreover, you can say what you want about "inflated" SEC schedules; but there's a reason 3 of the final 4 CWS teams were from the SEC and it isn't because of their "overinflated" rankings. Arkansas played their first 4 SEC weekend series against teams that were in the top 10 of the RPI at the time the games were played; 3 of them were in the top 5. I'm not denigrating Oregon State, nor the teams they played. But just as someone may point out - accurately - that OSU had a team batting average of .323 to Arkansas' .302, and OSU's season ERA is a little better (3.33 to 3.55), it's also fair to point out that Arkansas has hit 98 HR's to OSU's 65 . . . and that Arkansas, overall, played what was clearly a tougher schedule. That's objective and factual. And it's also of interest that while OSU's offensive numbers dipped a little in Conference play - which is normal - Arkansas' are identical in non-conference to what they are in SEC play; that's rare. Bottom line - I think we'd both agree that none of this will likely matter too much once the first pitch is thrown tonight. But, discussions like this is what bored fans do before the games start.
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Post by mbabeav on Jun 26, 2018 11:41:05 GMT -8
Really should compare non-conference SOS:Beavers: 24-1, RPI #1, SOS #15 Ark: 19-5, RPI #13, SOS #28 Beavers played a stronger non-conference schedule and won more non-conference games... The overall SOS of Ark is high due to the inflated SEC rankings, not 'level of competition'... Well, I don't see any CWS teams among those that you played in NC games during the regular season. Arkansas played Texas Tech and Texas in NC midweek games. The Hogs also played a 3 game series against USC, normally a power team (but not so much this year). Moreover, you can say what you want about "inflated" SEC schedules; but there's a reason 3 of the final 4 CWS teams were from the SEC and it isn't because of their "overinflated" rankings. Arkansas played their first 4 SEC weekend series against teams that were in the top 10 of the RPI at the time the games were played; 3 of them were in the top 5. I'm not denigrating Oregon State, nor the teams they played. But just as someone may point out - accurately - that OSU had a team batting average of .323 to Arkansas' .302, and OSU's season ERA is a little better (3.33 to 3.55), it's also fair to point out that Arkansas has hit 98 HR's to OSU's 65 . . . and that Arkansas, overall, played what was clearly a tougher schedule. That's objective and factual. And it's also of interest that while OSU's offensive numbers dipped a little in Conference play - which is normal - Arkansas' are identical in non-conference to what they are in SEC play; that's rare. Bottom line - I think we'd both agree that none of this will likely matter too much once the first pitch is thrown tonight. But, discussions like this is what bored fans do before the games start. I don't think you can compare the home run stat - have you ever tried to hit home runs in 45 degree weather and rain for two months in a ball park where the prevailing winds are similar to TD Ameritrade? That is what OSU deals with for the first half of the season at home and at most Pac NW games (and this year was even worse than normal). Discuss
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Post by irimi on Jun 26, 2018 11:55:35 GMT -8
Who cares?
Strength of schedule is not without bias. And "statistics are for losers."
LSU fans didn't believe that we'd be able to hit their pitching and they didn't believe that we could stop their hitting. Whoops. One serving of humble pie. MSU fans weren't as vocal on the board here, but even with the large and noisy crowd for the final game, our pitching just shut them down. Go back home, boys.
The thing is, we are Beaver Believers and you can bet that your conversion is forthcoming.
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Post by nabeav on Jun 26, 2018 12:21:04 GMT -8
texasdad - I appreciate your passion and your level-headed and well thought out posts. You make a lot of good points. Unfortunately your handle starts with the name of a state south and east of Oregon and you mentioned the letters "S" "E" and "C" in quick succession, which triggers most everyone from our great state. No point you make will ever be taken seriously.
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Post by wizardofhogz on Jun 26, 2018 12:22:57 GMT -8
I don't think you can compare the home run stat - have you ever tried to hit home runs in 45 degree weather and rain for two months in a ball park where the prevailing winds are similar to TD Ameritrade? That is what OSU deals with for the first half of the season at home and at most Pac NW games (and this year was even worse than normal). Discuss
That's a fair point. It's also fair to point out that the wind typically blows in from right field at 10 ro 15 mph for 80% of our home games. And this season, Arkansas played more home games in cold, rainy weather than any season in recent history. And by cold, I mean 40's to mid 50's for many games. In other words, very similar to what you describe. This went on through much of April, so it wasn't just a few early games.
I will say this; Knight is a great pitcher, and very consistent. His one Achilles heel is that he gives up more HR's than most pitchers. The saving grace there is that almost all of them were with nobody else on.
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Post by mbabeav on Jun 26, 2018 12:25:08 GMT -8
yep, if you give up home runs, single shots are better than with runners on. It is going to be a real duel tonight!
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Post by wizardofhogz on Jun 26, 2018 12:29:02 GMT -8
Who cares? Strength of schedule is not without bias. And "statistics are for losers." LSU fans didn't believe that we'd be able to hit their pitching and they didn't believe that we could stop their hitting. Whoops. One serving of humble pie. MSU fans weren't as vocal on the board here, but even with the large and noisy crowd for the final game, our pitching just shut them down. Go back home, boys.
irimi, it's hard to take you seriously when it was an OSU fan that started this statistical comparison (go back to the OP and check for yourself)! So, if 'stats are for losers', then you've called one of your own a loser.
I've just been responding to him with some facts It's what fans do.
if you'll actually read the posts I've made, you'll see I haven't made ANY hysterical claims.
This is baseball. We can both quote stats till the cows come home. But one team may still beat the other 10-2 and then 15-6. Or, we may see 3 one-run games. Who knows? Baseball is a game where even dominant teams can and do lose to clearly inferior teams in any given game. Stats tend to come through in the long run, but not always in 2 or 3 games.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 26, 2018 12:44:45 GMT -8
I don't think you can compare the home run stat - have you ever tried to hit home runs in 45 degree weather and rain for two months in a ball park where the prevailing winds are similar to TD Ameritrade? That is what OSU deals with for the first half of the season at home and at most Pac NW games (and this year was even worse than normal). Discuss
That's a fair point. It's also fair to point out that the wind typically blows in from right field at 10 ro 15 mph for 80% of our home games. And this season, Arkansas played more home games in cold, rainy weather than any season in recent history. And by cold, I mean 40's to mid 50's for many games. In other words, very similar to what you describe. This went on through much of April, so it wasn't just a few early games.
I will say this; Knight is a great pitcher, and very consistent. His one Achilles heel is that he gives up more HR's than most pictures. The saving grace there is that almost allot them were with nobody else on.
I actually went to Baum Stadium in 2004. My friend's brother was a relief pitcher for Missouri. I believe that Baum is about 10 feet shorter down the lines than Goss Stadium at Coleman Field. The two stadiums are oriented the same way, like TD Ameritrade Park is oriented. Right field is to the south of home. Goss Stadium at Coleman Field is very much a pitchers' park with a lot more foul territory than either Baum or TD Ameritrade. The wind usually comes in from the south for the early part of the year and from the west for the remainder. The way Goss Stadium at Coleman Field plays, it is much harder to hit a ball deep to right than it is to left. That appears to be similar to Baum. (And TD Ameritrade, for that matter.) It appears that Corvallis is generally windier than Fayetteville but that Winter and Spring are worse wind-wise in Fayetteville than in Corvallis. By June, that trend appears to reverse itself. Still, at most, we are only talking about 1-1.5 mph difference. Knight is a heck of a pitcher. It will be entertaining to see how this Heimlich-Knight matchup shakes out.
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Post by irimi on Jun 26, 2018 12:58:59 GMT -8
Who cares? Strength of schedule is not without bias. And "statistics are for losers." LSU fans didn't believe that we'd be able to hit their pitching and they didn't believe that we could stop their hitting. Whoops. One serving of humble pie. MSU fans weren't as vocal on the board here, but even with the large and noisy crowd for the final game, our pitching just shut them down. Go back home, boys.
irimi, it's hard to take you seriously when it was an OSU fan that started this statistical comparison (go back to the OP and check for yourself)! So, if 'stats are for losers', then you've called one of your own a loser.
I've just been responding to him with some facts It's what fans do.
if you'll actually read the posts I've made, you'll see I haven't made ANY hysterical claims.
This is baseball. We can both quote stats till the cows come home. But one team may still beat the other 10-2 and then 15-6. Or, we may see 3 one-run games. Who knows? Baseball is a game where even dominant teams can and do lose to clearly inferior teams in any given game. Stats tend to come through in the long run, but not always in 2 or 3 games.
Why should I care if you take me seriously? "stats are for losers" read some signature quotes on the site. Your facts are open to interpretation, just as our facts are. You see things your way; we see things our way. Therefore, who the hell cares? We've seen this before. No biggie. If you don't believe in Beaver baseball yet, you will. That's all.
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Post by jdogge on Jun 26, 2018 13:10:31 GMT -8
“ So, we can play this game all you like. But beyond the first round, the chance that any of these kids will hit the Bigs and stick are very low the deeper you get into the draft.” Statistically getting to the MLB is something like: 1st round 66%, 2nd round 49%, 3-5 rounds 32% and 6-10 at 20%. But really it has more to do with signing bonus, if you get 2 round money in the 11th round you’re going to get the same opportunity as a 2nd rounder. ROI (return on investment) just like any other business – the larger the investment, the more you’ll work to prove you made a good choice. Not sure what that has to do with the thread, but at least it’s accurate… “ The overall SOS of Ark is high due to the inflated SEC rankings, not 'level of competition'...” This is just fake news, just saying something doesn’t make it true. Looking forward to what will hopefully be a great game. Good luck to all and WPS! What is the source of your data?
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Post by jdogge on Jun 26, 2018 13:14:56 GMT -8
That's a fair point. It's also fair to point out that the wind typically blows in from right field at 10 ro 15 mph for 80% of our home games. And this season, Arkansas played more home games in cold, rainy weather than any season in recent history. And by cold, I mean 40's to mid 50's for many games. In other words, very similar to what you describe. This went on through much of April, so it wasn't just a few early games.
I will say this; Knight is a great pitcher, and very consistent. His one Achilles heel is that he gives up more HR's than most pictures. The saving grace there is that almost allot them were with nobody else on.
I actually went to Baum Stadium in 2004. My friend's brother was a relief pitcher for Missouri. I believe that Baum is about 10 feet shorter down the lines than Goss Stadium at Coleman Field. The two stadiums are oriented the same way, like TD Ameritrade Park is oriented. Right field is to the south of home. Goss Stadium at Coleman Field is very much a pitchers' park with a lot more foul territory than either Baum or TD Ameritrade. The wind usually comes in from the south for the early part of the year and from the west for the remainder. The way Goss Stadium at Coleman Field plays, it is much harder to hit a ball deep to right than it is to left. That appears to be similar to Baum. (And TD Ameritrade, for that matter.) It appears that Corvallis is generally windier than Fayetteville but that Winter and Spring are worse wind-wise in Fayetteville than in Corvallis. By June, that trend appears to reverse itself. Still, at most, we are only talking about 1-1.5 mph difference. Knight is a heck of a pitcher. It will be entertaining to see how this Heimlich-Knight matchup shakes out. OSU had fewer HRs but a significantly greater numbers of doubles and triples. The can clean the bass just as effectively as a homerun It will be interesting.
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Post by texasdad on Jun 26, 2018 13:25:16 GMT -8
“ So, we can play this game all you like. But beyond the first round, the chance that any of these kids will hit the Bigs and stick are very low the deeper you get into the draft.” Statistically getting to the MLB is something like: 1st round 66%, 2nd round 49%, 3-5 rounds 32% and 6-10 at 20%. But really it has more to do with signing bonus, if you get 2 round money in the 11th round you’re going to get the same opportunity as a 2nd rounder. ROI (return on investment) just like any other business – the larger the investment, the more you’ll work to prove you made a good choice. Not sure what that has to do with the thread, but at least it’s accurate… “ The overall SOS of Ark is high due to the inflated SEC rankings, not 'level of competition'...” This is just fake news, just saying something doesn’t make it true. Looking forward to what will hopefully be a great game. Good luck to all and WPS! What is the source of your data? Are you sure you’re not from Missouri? lol! bleacherreport.com/articles/1219356-examining-the-percentage-of-mlb-draft-picks-that-reach-the-major-leagues#slide0
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Post by texasdad on Jun 26, 2018 13:28:24 GMT -8
Irimi, I hope you’re just a fan and not OSU alum, as the war cry "statistics are for losers." Isn’t a good look for a great engineering school. Lol!
Nabeav,
I’m going to make things worse for myself and admit I’m certainly dad to a Texan but I’m a California native… lol! You’ll have to cut me a little slack as I have native Oregonian family and even a couple who are OSU alum – Can’t wait to use the "statistics are for losers." quote on them...
My aunt and uncle owned the Shamrock Motel in Sandy Oregon in the late 70’s and early 80’s – beautiful area and great steelhead fishing (at least back then). I’ve spent a fair amount of time wandering your beautiful state.
As for the SEC, it’s a pretty stout place to play baseball (as is the PAC 12). Having a kid that played, I loved the fan support. Not just online but filling the seats in mass nearly everywhere they played. Much like you guys, the fan base is incredibly supportive and knowledgeable – and believe it or not, very polite.
Good luck Beavs and here’s to a great series!
Statistics are for Losers! And WPS!
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Post by jdogge on Jun 26, 2018 14:38:52 GMT -8
Ok, well ... I followed the link back to the original site. There is no methodology stated. So it could be someone just pulling numbers out his a$$. Not from Missouri, just training in econometrics. When people throw numbers around, I want to know the source. Sorry.
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